Keynote pohl

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© Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl

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Cockpits: Real-time Monitoring and Adaptation of Future Internet Applications

Prof. Dr. Klaus PohlCAiSE – June, 2013

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palunoThe Ruhr Institute for Software Technology

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www.paluno.uni-due.dewww.paluno.uni-due.de

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1. The Future Internet

2. Use Cases & Cockpits

3. Pro-Active Responsiveness

4. Summary

Agenda

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Focusing on infrastructure and communication,i.e., worldwide connectivity, bandwidth, speed, …

e.g., e‐mail, gopher, WWW, …

1990 …

Access to contents and information from everywhere and by everyonee.g., Google, Yahoo, youtube, facebook, …

2000 …

The Internet connects the world…

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The Internet in 2010

Internet of Services

Internet of Things

Internet of Content

NEW

NEW

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• Globally accessible software functions (services)

• IT-mediated access to human-provided capabilities

• Servicification of products

• Cloud services • Cross-organizational alignment of IT systems

• Value-add services through seamless composition and integration

• …

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Internet of ServicesGrowth

7Source: S. Ried und H. Kisker, „Sizing the Cloud“, Forrester Research, Inc., Apr. 2011., p. 9

Public Cloud Market Size

2020$160 Billion

$20 Billion2011

Infrastructure as a Service: Compute, Storage, Network

Platforms as a Service

Applications/Software as a Service

Business Processes / Workflows as a

Service

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Internet of Things

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• Network connected devices“connecting the world to the Internet”

• Digitization of real-world through connected sensors and actuators

• Uniquely identifiable objects

Sources: data-directions.com; xively; DHL

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Internet of ThingsGrowth

9Sources: GSMA und Machina Research, „The Connected Life: A USD4.5 trillion global impact in 2020“, GSMA, Feb. 2012., p. 3

Internet-connected Devices

24 Billion(50% of which mobile)

9 Billion2011

2020

(Smart-)Phones

Connected Things / Sensors / Actuators

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Smart Energy

E ‐Mobility

Enabler for novel types of software‐intensive systems:

Future Internet Applications

Logistics

E ‐ Health

The Future InternetConvergence of Services and Things


Internet of ThingsInternet of Content

FutureInternet

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On-demand Garbage

Transport

Future Internet ApplicationsExample

Energy reduction: 20% (estimated)

[urbiotica.com]

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Future Internet ApplicationsExample

Water reduction: 60% (estimated)

Smart Watering

Source: urbiotica

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FP7 IP Operational Trustworthiness

Enabling Technologies

FP7 IP FI PPP

Core Platform

FP7 IP Global Transport and Logistics

(FI PPP Phase 1)

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Future Internet FP7 projects @ paluno

FP7 IP AgriFood, Transport

and Logistics (FI PPP Phase 2)

FP 7 NoESecure Software Services & Systems

FP7 STREPSafe Wireless High Mobility Industrial

Systems

FP7 STREPAdaptive Middleware for Autonomous Services

FP7 STREPElectricity and Monitoring System

FP7 STREPPervasive Computing

in Embedded Systems

FP7 STREPSmart Grid Key Neighborhood

Indicator Cockpit

FP7 IPPlatform for Heterogeneous

Networked Cooperating Objects

FP 7 NoESoftware, Services & Systems

FP 7 NoECooperating Objects

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4. Summary

Agenda

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Facts:Duration: 04/11 – 03/14Total cost: 54 Million EUR

Facts:Duration: 04/11 – 03/14Total cost: 54 Million EUR

Platform for cost-effective creation and delivery of services, providing high QoS and security

The Future InternetFI-WARE Core Platform

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Trust and Security

Fun

ctio

nal

ity

Apps & Services

Internet of Things

Data & Context

Cloud

Interface to Network & Devices

FI-CoDE

(Tools)

FI-WAREGeneric Enablers

VM Management

GE

ServiceMarketplace

GE

VM ManagementGE

IoT BrokerGE

VM ManagementGE

VMManagementGE

VM ManagementGE

OnlineTesting

GE

VM ManagementGE

Cloud ProxyGE

VM ManagementGE

BigDataAnalysis

GE

Security & Trust

VM ManagementGE

IdentityManagementGE

> 30 GEs:http://catalogue.fi-ware.eu/

> 30 GEs:http://catalogue.fi-ware.eu/

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Future Internet Public Private Partnership

FI-WARE

Expansion of Use Cases

FIspace

FITMAN

XIFI

INFINITY

ENVIROFI

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Phase 3 (Expansion)Phase 1 (Use Cases) Phase 2 (Trials)

FI-CONTENT

OUTSMART

SAFECITY

FINSENY

SMARTAGRIFOOD

INSTANT MOBILITY

FINEST

TF Extension and Usage

FI-CONTENT 2

Finesce

FI-STAR

Technical Coordinator

Research Partner (1 of 5)

Technical Architect

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FP 7 IP FInestUse of Generic Enablers

• 4 GEs integrated into the proof-of-concepts (demos)• 15 GEs considered for FInest technical specification

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www.finest-ppp.euwww.finest-ppp.eu

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Future Internet ApplicationsLogistic Use Cases

1 4

3

5

2

6

8

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Farming in the Cloud1. Crop Protection Information Sharing2. Greenhouse Management & Control

Perishable Goods Logistics3. Fish Distribution and (Re-)Planning4. Fruit & Vegetables Quality Assurance5. Flowers/Plants Supply Chain

Monitoring

Distribution & Consumption6. Meat Information Provenance7. Import & Export of Consumer Goods8. Tailored Information for Consumers

Robust Transport Chains8. Parcel and package pre-run9. Multi-modal container transport

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• Common solution for specific application areas, e.g., • Emergency• Disaster management• Chemical plants• Production automation

• Human-in-the-Loop• Monitoring• Analysis• Decision-making• Adaptation (execution of)

Monitoring & Adapting Operational ProcessesCockpits and Control Centres

Sources: npc.org, parabolicarc 20

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Cockpits for Future Internet Applications

Cockpits /Control Centre

PDA

Sensor

Effector

SoftwareService

SoftwareService

IoS

IoT

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Cockpits for Future Internet ApplicationsMulti-modal Container Transport

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hySGKbEEsyo

Monitoring InformationAdaptation Guidance

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Cockpits for Future Internet ApplicationsFunctional Building Blocks

Future‐Internet‐Cockpit

HumanOperator

Know-ledge

Plans, Models, …

ChangesPast Events

Alarm/

Monitor

Analyze

Execute

Cockpit Front End

IoT & IoS Gateway

Info Alternatives

Plan

Observation

Event

Decision

Action

Adaptation Need

Selection

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Service

IoS

IoTMAPELOOP

Suitable Abstractions to

support Human

Interactions

Dynamically mapping of monitoring

information to Application

Models

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Incl.Predictive

Capabilities

Incl.Predictive

Capabilities

+ Fault Prediction

+ FailurePrediction

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4. Summary

Agenda

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Fault Machine or environment (incl. third-party services)

do not behave as expected Failure Experienced violation of requirement of service-based

application

Assume that a fault is observede.g., violation of service contract

Three possible cases All Requirements are still valid

• no adaptation needed Some Requirements violated + violation experienced in real world

• Failure detection reactive adaptation Some Requirements violated, but violation not experience yet

• Failure prediction proactive adaptation

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Future Internet CockpitsProactive Responsiveness

Source: Carlo Ghezzi; Keynote @ ServiceWace 2010, Ghent © p

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• Reactive Adaptation• Repair/compensate failure

already visible for end-user

• Proactive Adaptation (Case 1)• A fault occurs and will lead to a

failure?• Repair/compensate fault to

prevent failure

• Proactive Adaptation (Case 2) A fault is imminent, but did not yet

occur• Modify system before fault

actually occurs

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FailureFault!

Fault?

Failure

Future Internet CockpitsProactive Adaptation

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Time Series Prediction: extrapolate future quality based on past observation

Online Testing: complement monitoring data with testing data

Machine Learning/Data Mining:prediction models trained using historic monitoring data

Run-time Verification: formal analysis to ascertain predefined properties hold

Static Analysis: infer properties of artifact Simulation: execute dynamic models Predictive Event-Processing:

extends complex event processing with fault/failure prediction capabilities

Future Internet CockpitsPro-Active Failure Prediction

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Failure PredictionExample: Predictive Complex Event Processing

• Extension of Complex Event Processing

Y. Engel, O. Etzion, “Towards proactive event‐driven

computing,” DEBS 2011

Fault PredictionFailure Prediction

Proactive Adaptation

Monitoring

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Use Case - Airfreight• Focus: High Shows / Low Shows

• Discrepancy between booked weight and actual weight delivered

• Can result in• Over-loaded flights• Under-loaded flights

Inefficient use of transport assets Transport delays, additional transports


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• Empirical Validation• IATA Cargo 2000 Monitoring Standard

• Cargo 2000 Monitoring data of a large forwarding company• Five months of operational data• Approximately 151,000 transport processes

(80% for training; 20% test data)


Airline (Carrier)Import

ForwarderExport

Forwarder

BKD

PUP

REW

DEH

FWB

DOC

RCS

DEP

ARR

RCF

NFD

AWD

DLV

REH

OFD

POD

Shipper (Customer)

Consignee

DEH: Truck Departure to Airline

FWB: Master Airway Bill Creation

DOC: Truck Arrival at Departure Airline

BKD: Freight Booking by Shipper

PUP: Pick up from Customer

REW: Freight Received Forwarder

RCS: Freight Checked in at Airline

…

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Results• 586 over-loaded flights

532 under-loaded flights• Predictive CEP fosters early warning


Accuracy over-load warnings: Precision: 99%

Recall: 70%

Accuracy under-load warnings: Precision: 80%,

Recall: 95%

Z. Feldmann, F. Fournier, R. Franklin, and A. Metzger, “Proactive event processing in action: A case study on the proactive management of transport processes,” DEBS 2013

Mean Warning time: 58 hours (before departure)

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4. Summary

Agenda

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© p

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oFuture‐Internet‐Cockpit

Cockpits: Real-time Monitoring and Adaptation of Future Internet Applications

Know-ledge

Plans, Models, …

ChangesPast Events

Alarm/

Monitor

Analyze

Execute

Cockpit Front End

IoT & IoS Gateway

Info Alternatives

Plan

Observation

Event

Decision

Action

Adaptation Need

Selection

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Service

IoS

IoT

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+ Fault Prediction

+ FailurePrediction

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Challenges for Future Internet ApplicationsHigh Complexity

Source: L. Northrop, Keynote, ICSE 2013

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Ultra Large Scale Systems Cyber Physical Systems Socio-technical Systems

Challenges for Future Internet ApplicationsHigh Complexity

Sources: umd.edu; Acatech; libelium

Smart Grids Multimodal Transport

Smart Cities

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Sources: NESSI; IFIP; Forester

2020$160 Billion

$20 Billion2011

Challenges for Future Internet ApplicationsServicification of Products Physical goods and products are Enhanced and extended by services Even fully turned into services, e.g.,

car sharing, washing-machine-as-a-service, drilling-as-a-service, …

Immaterial products Business processes (BPaaS) Software (SaaS) Platforms (PaaS) Infrastructure (IaaS) Content/Data (CaaS, DaaS) …

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Data Flood (Tsunami)Contents, Media, Documents

Source: IDC´s Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, December 2012

Global Data Volume2020

2011

40.000 Exabyte

1.000 Exabyte

• 1 Exabyte = 1 million Terabyte = 12 stacks of books from earth to Sun

• 4.000 Exabyte = 160 stacks of books from earth to Pluto

Basically all this information has been produced in the last 20 years

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Challenges for Future Internet ApplicationsFast-paced Technology and Societal Changes

Sources: facebook, Ben Foster; dreamgrow.com

2004

2011900 Million

Launch of Facebook

March 2013

# of Users

1.11 billion

March 2013

# of Users

1.11 billion

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Challenges for Future Internet ApplicationsFast-paced Technology and Societal Changes

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Summary – Radical Change / Revolution

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Further Information:www.paluno.euwww.sse.uni-due.de