Population Growth

FertiltyMortality

Is a result of two factors:

● Fertility● Mortality

Population Growth

The ratio of births to population of a given area

It is measured by:

Fertility

CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR)

FERTILITY RATE / TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)

REPLACEMANT LEVEL FERTILITY (RLF)

CHILD WOMEN RATIO

AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE

most common measure of fertility.

Gives an overall picture of the number of births per 1000 population in a year.

The number of births per 1000 people in a population per year

Formula: CBR = total number of births x 1000 total population

CRUDE BIRTH RATE

What is the limitation of the index measurement?

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

It does not take into account the age and sex distribution of the population

What is the limitation of the index measurement?

It is the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime

Varies geographically ◦ e.g in 1994:

◦ Sierra Leone, TFR of 6.5 while◦ UK, TFR of 1.8

Changes with time

Total Fertility rate (TFR)

Is the level at which each generation of women has only enough daughters to replace themselves in the population

What is the ideal replacement level? 2.1 0r 2

Replacement Level Fertility

Mortality may prevent a proportion of the female children from reaching their productive years and also, on average, slightly more boys are born than girls

Explain how mortality and sex composition of a group can affect replacement level?

Find the natural increase if

a. BR = 25/1000 DR = 10/1000

b. BR = 5/1000 DR = 10/1000

c. BR = 10/1000 DR = 10/1000

Simple Exercises…

High fertilty rates ( 4.0 & above)

Medium fertility rates (2.2 – 3.9)

Low fertility rate: (2.1 & below)

List out 4 countries with:

a. Infant and child mortalityb. Population momentumc. Views towards childrend. Status for womene. Cultural factorsf. Religion factorsg. Political factors

Elaborate the following factors, differentiate between Less economically developed countries and More economically developed countries.

Is the ratio of deaths to the population of a given area

Mortality

CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)

INFANT MORTALITY RATE (IMR)

LIFE EXPECTANCY

MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE (MMR)

AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE (ASDR)

Measures of mortality

The number of deaths per 1000 population in a year

Formula :

CDR = total number of deaths x1000

total population

CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)

What does it mean if ‘Sierra Leone’ had a CDR of 25/ 1000 in 1994?

Yes!!!

It shows whether there is improvement in health system or not.

If the CDR is low meaning there is improvement in health and if there is no improvement, CDR will be high

Is CDR a good indicator of a country’s health system?

It is a measure of the number of deaths of infants before the age of one per 1000 live births in a year

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

Children respond easily to the state of their mother’s health and the state of pre and ante-natal services

Why is the IMR a reliable indicator of the state of health of a country?

The average number of years a person is expected to live

When mortality declines, life expectancy will increase

LIFE EXPECTANCY

Ageing population

Accessibility to amenities

Government commitment to improve health care

Living environment

Colonial past influence in LEDCs

Education among mothers and adults

Aids epidemic

Factors affecting mortality

Population growth is even slower in developed countries

Stabilising birth rates & increasing death rates have already led to natural population decrease in Italy & Germany

Japan & Spain are expected to follow soon

Lack of clean waterLack of foodPoor hygiene and sanitationOvercrowdingContagious diseases such as diarrhea and respiratory infections

PovertyThe occurrence of war

Why are death rates high?

Clean water is readily availableReliable food supplyGood hygiene and sanitationLower population densitiesBetter vaccinations and health care

Rising standards of living

Why do death rates decline?

Highest death rates are found in LEDCs esp. Sub-Saharan Africa.

Mali, Gambia, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Zambia – DR of 20/1000

Up to 600 women die for every 100000 children born

Pakistan – high DR among females, due to malnourished & limited access to health care

In 1990s – DR increased in Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Ukraine, Moldova

Shorter LE among male

Increase Cardiovascular disease Accidents Suicides Murders Stress Substance abuse (smoking & drinking)

All these linked to increased unemployment, and worsening living condition

Reasons for increased DR in male

The greater the proportion of population in the old age (65+), the higher the death rate for the population as a whole

Demographic structures

Top 5 highest percentage of population over 65

centenarians in Switzerland, 1860–2001: a demographic analysis

Mr. Henry Allingham was born on June 6, 1896 and is now 112.

"The UK's Oldest Man”

Of the 40,399 centenarians, 87 percent are women, the Health and Welfare Ministry said.

Japan's centenarian numbers rank it second in the world behind the United States, which now has more than 96,000, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. But the U.S. population is more than double that of Japan.   

More Than 40,000 Japanese Aged 100 or Over, Survey Says…

By 2066, there are predicted to be over half a million people aged over 100

Increase in the dependency ratio. This means that there will be more people claiming benefits such as state pensions and less people working and paying income taxes

Increased government spending on health care and pensions

Those in work will have to pay higher taxes. This could create disincentives to work and for firms to invest, therefore there could be a fall in productivity growth.

Shortage of workers. This shortage of workers could push up wages causing wage inflation. Alternatively, firms may have to respond by encouraging more people to enter the workforce, through offering flexible working practices.

The Impact of an Ageing Population

Increase participation rate,

Raise the retirement age

Increase the importance of the private sector in providing pensions and health care. However this may cause increased inequality

Government Responses to an Ageing Population