Short presentation at CCAFS workshop: Farm-household modelling with a focus on food security, climate change adaptation, risk management and

mitigation: a way forward, 23-25 April 2012

www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/fallow_download

FALLOW Meine van Noordwijk

Desi Suyamto

Rachmat Mulia

Betha Lusiana

Decision making on agricultural

resource use

Government: infrastructure,

land use/access planning

Private sec-tor: input &

output markets

Self-reliant vs market-reliant

livelihood strategies

Agent differen-tiation: gender,

class, age, power, ethnicity

Labour, Land, Water, Soil fer-

tility, Germplasm, Capital

Knowledge and know-how,

Norms & sanctions

Rural development Globalization and desakota integration

Macro-climate change

Sustainability & Sustainagility

Framing human behaviour & decisions: Optimal foraging, opportunistic use

of time; “pico-economics”

Agricultural economics: NPV,

R2L; “micro-economics”

Portfolio theory of risk & rational

diversity: “meso-economics”

Collective action, bounded altruism, social norms, do’s

& don’ts

Linear programming,

multi-goal optimization

Development planning & ‘green growth’: “macro-

economics”

Trusted sources of information: extension &

innovation theory

Agent-based models: wealth,

class, age, gender, power, ethnicity

Payments for eco-system services: “environmental

economics”

Rights-based approaches:

bundles of rights to resource use

System dynamics: positive & negative

feedback loops

Planetary boun-daries, ecological

sustainability: “giga-economics”

Framing human behaviour & decisions: Optimal foraging, opportunistic use

of time; “pico-economics”

Agricultural economics: NPV,

R2L; “micro-economics”

Portfolio theory of risk & rational

diversity: “meso-economics”

Collective action, bounded altruism, social norms, do’s

& don’ts

Linear programming,

multi-goal optimization

Development planning & ‘green growth’: “macro-

economics”

Trusted sources of information: extension &

innovation theory

Agent-based models: wealth,

class, age, gender, power, ethnicity

Payments for eco-system services: environmental

economics”

Rights-based approaches:

bundles of rights to resource use

System dynamics: positive & negative

feedback loops

Planetary boun-daries, ecological

sustainability: “giga-economics”

Grand synthesis is yet to come, but we’re starting to connect at least

some of these theories in our current models….

Portfolio theory of risk & rational

diversity: “meso-economics”

Payments for eco-system services: “environmental

economics”

Trusted sources of information: extension &

innovation theory

Portfolio theory of risk & rational

diversity: “meso-economics”

System dynamics: positive & negative

feedback loops

Agent-based models: wealth,

class, age, gender, power, ethnicity

Agricultural economics: NPV,

R2L; “micro-economics”

Optimal foraging, opportunistic use

of time; “pico-economics”

Dynamic Geo-Informatics

System

Rights-based approaches:

bundles of rights to resource use

The FALLOW model currently contains ele-ments of several theories of decision making:

www.agralin.nl/ojs/index.php/njas/article/view/588/302

Drivers Actors/ agents

Land use/cover changes

Conse-quences & functions

Response/ feedback options

B1. Incentive structure through policy change (tax, subsidy etc)

A2. LU rights (e.g. community forest mngmnt)

A1. Land use policies, spatial development planning

Modified from Van Noordwijk et al., 2011

B2. PES and conditional ES incentives

Biodiversity, Watershed functions, GHG emissions,

Landscape beauty

Livelihoods, provisioning & profitability

Short model description Goal of model development: • Represent continuum of ‘subsistence’ to ‘market integration’, shifting

cultivation to permanently cropped fields, labour + cash constrained decisions in a ‘tropical forest margin’ setting

• Dynamics of soil fertility (~ Trenbath) and (agro)forest resources • Relate dynamic knowledge of landscape agents to dynamic action

(decision making) in ‘adopt & learn’ mode; open to impact analysis of ‘extension’

• Explore spatial dynamics, consequences of land use zoning, restrictions to access

• Tradeoff and scenario analysis of livelihoods & ES (C-stocks, biodiversity, key watershed functions)

• Use in spatial planning and scenario development boundary work Typical research questions addressed: 1) Can we account for historical land use change of a study area

(calibration/validation phase) 2) What can we expect (‘scenarios’) of ‘business as usual’ extrapolation

compared to specific interventions in spatial planning, demographic, economic, K-dynamics, PES-incentive systems

Short model description

≈

maximizing ‘utility’ (profitability)

‘model inside the model’: dynamic knowledge - learning

(external-extension and internal - experience)

• Diagram of model

Lusiana et all., under review

Developments needed to

better deal with this attribute

Attribute Covered

in pre-

vious ana-

lyses?

If ‘yes’, which

indicators were used?

Which indicators

would you like to use

in future to deal with

attribute?

For your model For house-

hold level

models in

general

Economic

performance

Y •Non-food expendi-

ture

• Returns to labour

• Learning styles

•In/out-migration

as outcome

• Empirical GINI

coefficients

• (Attractiveness to)

external investment

• External input

dependency

• Learning sty-

les ~ decision

rules

•Degree of

prioritization

Multiple

discount

rates ~

decision

making

Food self-

sufficiency

Y • Landscape-level

production ~

demand

•Exchange across

landscape border

• Empirical GINI

coefficients

Preferential

treatment of

staple food ~

portfolio

choices

Distribu-

tional

issues,

landless

HH’s

Food security

Y •Income security

•Interannual buffer

• Empirical GINI

coefficients

•Nutritional

diversity

Multiple buffer

concepts ~ ex-

ternal shocks

Risk avoi-

dance in

switch to

markets

Developments needed to better

deal with this attribute

Attribute Covered in

previous

analyses?

If ‘yes’, which

indicators were

used?

Which indicators would

you like to use in future

to deal with attribute?

For your model For house-hold

level models in

general

Climate

variability

y Single random

variate on yields

Partial correlates of

stochastic effects on

multiple crops &

income sources

Link to rela-

ted model for

prepro-

cessing

Portfolio

analysis,

multiple

buffers

Risk

y Multiple model

runs across key

stochastic para-

meters

Substitutibility

across different

buffer types

Partial de-

pendence of

external price

variation

Desakota

family

networks (rur-

urb)

Mitigation

y Landscape level

C stocks

Livestock-based

emission estimates

PES mecha-

nisms ~ HH

scale

x-scale PES

mechanisms

Adaptation

y Local experience

based learning

as driver of

decisions

Interactions

between diverse

learning styles

Meso-clima-

tic influences

on ClimVar

impacts

X-scale

sustain-agility

analyses

Final remarks

WaNuLCAS, SExI-FS

GenRiver

FALLOW, ABM’s

FBA allometry Tree

Plot/patch

Household/landscape

Watershed Daily Annual time-steps

Common features in x-scale model family ~ databases

Strong interest in using models as ‘boundary objects’ in K2A analysis with local stakeholders

http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/af2/fallow_download

Suyamto DA, Mulia R, van Noordwijk M and Lusiana B. 2009. Fallow 2.0. Manual and Software. Bogor, Indonesia. World Agroforestry Centre - ICRAF, SEA Regional Office. 67 p.

Initial version in Stella for 10*10 grid Simplified model operates on PC-Raster dynamic GIS platform, district level <100,000 ha Recent applications

1) in context of OpCost/REALU in Indonesia, Viet Nam

2) Aceh post Tsunami recovery & land use planning

3) Livestock intergration 4) University courses

Multipurpose agroforestry as a climate change resiliency option for farmers: an example of local adaptation in Vietnam

Quan Nguyen, Minh Ha Hoang, Ingrid Öborn, and Meine van Noordwijk

Recently, the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change (Beddington et al. 2011) launched its recommendations for ensuring food security under a changing climate. The report does not mention trees, forests or agroforestry as important for food security. This is in contrast to the ways farming traditions have evolved (van Noordwijk et al. 2011) and how farmers currently try to adapt to further climate change.

Solar radiation and Green-House Gas effect

Rainfall pattern&intensity

Temperature, humidity, windspeed, incoming radiation, potential eva-potranspiration at the level of plants or animals

Local tree cover: wind-breaks, shade trees

Water supply buffered by soil

Plant growth

Vegetation effects on rainfall triggering

Teleconnections of rainfall with sea sur-face temperature

Macro-

Meso-

Micro - climate

van der Ent RJ, Savenije HHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐ Dunne SC, 2010. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resources Research 46, W09525,

E/P

Pfrom Et/P

South Africa’s concept of pay-ments for tree plantations that evaporate water at above-average rates, can not be transferred to E. Africa, where such evapotrans-piration is likely to return as rainfall.

Financial capital

Infra- Natural structure capital

Macro-economic Risk & . development buffering

Spatial planning & LU rights

Giga-economic green development

Human Social capital capital

Emotion, intuition

Ratio Social norms

Pico- economics

sermons