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December 4, 2013
NCEP Product Suite Usage in the Private Sector
Brian KoltsEnergy Delivery – Environmental
2013 Production ReviewNational Weather Service NCEP
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 2
Outline
Introduction to FirstEnergy
SREF and Hi-Res WRF Usage at FirstEnergy
Wish List
Questions and Answers
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 3
About FirstEnergy (FE)
Headquartered in Akron, Ohio
One of the largest investor-owned electricsystems in the U.S. based on6 million customers served
Nearly $47 billion in assets
$16 billion in annual revenues
Approximately 23,000 megawatts ofgenerating capacity
10 electric utility operating companies insix states
65,000-square-mile service area
20,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines and approximately 281,000 miles of distribution lines Learn more by visiting www.firstenergycorp.com
Natural Gas
CoalNuclear
10%
6%
18%64%
2%Oil
Hydro/Wind
A BalancedFuel Mix
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 4
Need for Internal Meteorological Support
Assess the atmosphere’s impact on FirstEnergy
– Physical: Personnel (safety) and property (reliability/cash)
– Financial: Capitol strategies (resource management)
Assess FirstEnergy’s impact on the atmosphere
– FirstEnergy’s environmental footprint(air quality) present and future
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 5
Primary Weather Concerns - Impact Weather
High winds Ice Snow, especially wet snow on leaves Lightning Temperature extremes Flooding
Power Disruptions Caused By:
Address Safety, Reliability and Resource Management Issues:
Pre-staging of resources (crews,wires and poles)
Also extra staffing required to meetanticipated increase in customer call volume
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 6
How NCEP Products Support FirstEnergy
NCO – Production, NAWIPS software
EMC – Model runs (image), QPE gribs, archived data
SPC – Convective outlooks, storm reports, archived data
HPC – Model discussions, QPF gribs
NHC – Tropical System Guidance, archive data
CPC – Long range, climate index monitoring, archived data
SWPC – Space Weather Alerts
OPC – Not yet utilized
SREF, GFS, NAM Snowfall (f36) for March 24th 2013
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 7
SREF
GFS
• 30% SREF Mean
• 70% GFS
NAM
Observed snowfall (from LSR/PNS info)
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 8
We are now only using a 15 member SREF ensemble We are only using the em (ARW) control member – we have
excluded the remaining em members so as to not overweith the SREF towards the GFS
We have seen success with this through the convective season and we are just beginning to use this with winter events.
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 9
11/26 – 11/27 Snow Event SREF(15) Fhour48
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 10
9-12”
December 5, 20122012 NCEP Production Suite Review 11
NAM 04 km (10-12”)
NAMARWE(10-12”)
NAMNMME(12-15”)
FE WRF4km(10-12”)
SREF(1 member), GEM, NAM, GFS, GCMC Blend Snow/Ice Accumulation
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 12
27 Nov 2013 Observed Snow Totals
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 13
November 17th Severe Event
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SREF(15) Convective Wind Gust Potential
December45, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 15
SREF(15) Maximum Non-Convective Gust Potential
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Nov 17 2013 Max Recorded Wind Speeds
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 17
June 12th Derecho
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 18
December 4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 19
NAMARWE
NAMNMME
FE WRF
Obs Radar
1000m Synthetic Reflectivity Forecast at fhours 36/42
Summary/Wish List We would like to thank EMC for all of your products and hard
work, and for allowing FirstEnergy to participiate in this review.
We would like to thank Geoff Manikin for conducting the weekly MEG meetings – we have found these extremely valuable.
While we use nearly all EMC products, we are especially heavy users of SREF and the Hi-Res WRF runs.
We are looking for the forthcoming updates to the SREF. We wish we had been able to access the current parallel members.
We would like to see Rime Factor available in all models.
We look forward to opportunities to work with NOAA in the future.
December4, 20132013 NCEP Production Suite Review 20
December 4, 2013
2013 NCEP Production Suite Review
21
Peter Manousos pmanousos@firstenergycorp.com330 761 4484
Brian Koltsbkolts@firstenergycorp.com330 384 5474
December 5, 20122012 NCEP Production Suite Review 22
SREF Application – Winter Precipitation
Simple approach – multiply three hour melted QPF by precip type (binary flag at every fhr for snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain)
Three hour components summed (GEMPAK) to create the following for each precip type (every cycle)
– Three hour totals
– “Model run” totals
– Running 24 hour totals
Will improve when one hour SREF output utilized
Examples of wind and snow loops will follow the verification plots
December 5, 20122012 NCEP Production Suite Review 23
SREF Application – Wind (Non-Convective)
Momentum Transfer Method (BUFKIT) approach applied to each SREF member
“Height of gust layer” found when(working from surface upward) thelapse rate becomes greater than70% of that for a standardatmosphere (~-4.5 deg /km too stableto mix beyond this threshold)
Within this layer two parameters arecalculated:
– “Typical gust” (mean of the wind speedin the gust layer)
– “Max gust” (max wind speed in thegust layer)
Assessed from surface to 700mb for every member at every grid point for every forecast hour (GEMPAK) and every cycle
Very powerful tool for pre-storm planning
December 5, 20122012 NCEP Production Suite Review 24
Meteorology and Energy/Air Quality Policy
Air quality standards have tightenedwhile power demand increases
Modeling used to determinebest path forward
EPA regulatory and regionalmodels driven by meteorology
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