Futures methods for higher education: EDUCAUSE 2016

Assessing Assessing Emerging Emerging

Technology Technology and Futures and Futures Capacity for Capacity for

Your Your OrganizationOrganization

EDUCAUSE2016

Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop

1.Introductions2.Delphi method3.Environmental scanning4.Trend analysis5.Scenarios6.Implementation in your

organization

Historical sketchHistorical sketch

1.Cold War: RAND and Shell

2.Growth of futures/futurology

3.Business, government

2. Delphi method• Assemble experts • Structured queries• Reiterated assessments

Horizon ReportsHorizon ReportsHigher EducationHigher Education K-12 EducationK-12 Education

MuseumsMuseumsLibrariesLibraries

European Union (K-12) European Union (K-12) Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed)

Regional/Sector Technology OutlooksRegional/Sector Technology OutlooksAustralia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / Brazil

Ireland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaChina / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools China / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools

Training / eLearning / STEM / Community CollegesTraining / eLearning / STEM / Community Colleges

www.nmc.org/horizon-project

55 Editions55 Editions75+ Translations75+ Translations

14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake

The NMC Horizon Project

HORIZON.WIKI.NMC.ORG

POLICYPOLICYLEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP

PRACTICEPRACTICE

LONG-TERM IMPACT

MID-TERM IMPACT

SHORT-TERM IMPACT

> Advancing Cultures of Innovation> Rethinking How Institutions Work

> Redesigning Learning Spaces> Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches

> Growing Focus On Measuring Learning> Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs [ KEY

TRE

NDS

]

Solvable vs. Difficult/Wicked Challenges

SOLVABLE

DIFFICULT

WICKED

> Blending Formal + Informal Learning> Improving Digital Literacy

> Competing Models of Education> Personalizing Learning

> Balancing Our Connected + Unconnected Lives> Keeping Education Relevant

[ SIG

NIFI

CANT

CHA

LLEN

GES

]

NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS

MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS

FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS

> Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)> Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning

> Augmented + Virtual Reality> Makerspaces

> Affective Computing> Robotics

[ DEV

ELOP

MEN

TS IN

TEC

H ]

On campus• Can you use Horizon and

others?• Can you build your own?

Horizon prompts exercise 1.Which developments in technology are most likely to have the largest impact on education over the next five years?

2.What are the most significant challenges facing education and technology?

3.Which significant trends will have the greatest influence on how education and technology work in the near future?

3. Environmental scanning•Present-oriented,

seeking seeds of future•Multiple, diverse

sources•“So what?” Analysis

ACRL sample

http://tinyurl.com/ACRLscan

STEEP framework

SocialTechnologicalEconomicalEducational Political

Key questions to start on• What are your sources?• How do you share what

you discover?• How does reflection

shape your planning?

EXERCISE

1.Identify 2 stories from past 3 months

2.1 personal, 1 professional

3.Note source

4. Trend analysis

Once you have discerned possible future-suggestive stories, what do you do with them?

4. Trend analysis• What do they signal about a

possible future?• What trends do they indicate?• How do they connect with your

thinking?• How do they intersect?

EXERCISE

Back to environmental scan. Break out trends.

5. Scenarios

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamais_cascio/3991366442/

AdvantagesAdvantages

1.Narratives compel2.Creativity for everyone3.Role playing4.Can be very low cost

CostsCosts

1. Time consuming2. Can be costly3. May seem too touchy-feely,

too speculative

How to use?How to use?

1. Role playing2. Simpler: how does your life

change?3. Group or individual/small

group creation

Sample scenariosSample scenarios

1. Peak Higher Education

2. Health Care Nation3. Tutor me, Siri4. Renaissance

Peak higher educationPeak higher education

Academia experiences a serious correction

The bubble burstThe bubble burst

http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/

Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked

Perfect stormPerfect storm Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk

costs Low public funding Alternatives rising

How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?

Fewer, less crowded campuses

Very international student body

Low-cost programs ($10K BA)

How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?

Increased remedial programs

College generally seen as job training

How does this impact How does this impact learning?learning?

More alternatives:Maker movement expandsMore DIY learning,

unschooling

Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12

Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths

Colleges have always been transnational

II: II: Health care Health care nationnation

Medical sector grows into leading US industry

45% of GDP

A new economyA new economy

Ageing population

A new economyA new economy Byzantine finances Treatment improvements Greater presence in society Baumol’s disease

How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?

More programs, more people, more tech

Increased feminization of student body

Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals

Some took premed-themed classes in high school

Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures

Many already familiar with eldercare practices

III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri Tutoring

software Commodi

ty and enterprise versions

How it happenedHow it happened

Continuous developments in AI, HCI, learning science

Commercial, governmental, academic projects

Open education to draw upon

Higher education landscape:Two Cultures

implementation divideBoom in CS, robotics

departmentsScholarship battles

Higher education landscape:

Further adjunctificationF2f undergrad, grad

enrollments drop Math Emporium model

Expanded study halls in high school

Beloved tutors carried to college, life

Value humans for eccentricity, style

IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance

Gaming world

Gaming as part of mainstream Gaming as part of mainstream cultureculture

Median age of gamers shoots past 30

Industry size comparable to music

Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, other industries

Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, players

Games serious, public, and political

• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries• Jetset, Persuasive Games• The Great Shakeout, California• DimensionM, Tabula Digita

Classroom and coursesCurriculum contentDelivery mechanismCreating games

Peacemaker, Impact GamesRevolution (via Jason Mittell)

•Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008)•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)

Game studies as academic Game studies as academic fieldfield

How is gaming used now?How is gaming used now?

Use games to impact society

Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses

Changes in hardware, software

Part of undergraduate life Learning content, both

informal and formal Career paths

Interface changesInterface changes

Gartner: end of the mouse

Touch screen (iOS) Handhelds (Wii) Nothing (Kinect)

Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project-

based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: rare and/or smaller Professional development:

distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production is

the norm› Both sides of the API

War on IP rages Nostalgia waves for

old media Competing

storytelling schools

Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12

Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors

Most of their work and school is gamified

How does your life change?How does your life change?

1. Peak Higher Education

2. Health Care Nation3. Tutor me, Siri4. Renaissance

EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1

1. Select one trend2. Build a world around it• Think STEEP• Think campuses• Imagine your students

EXERCISE EXERCISE

1. Pick the most unstable, hard to predict trend.

2. Describe its polar extreme possibilities.

3. Pick another trend.4. Do #2 on it.

EXERCISE

Each trend one axis

6. Back to campus

What is your current futuring capacity?• Individuals• Practices• Local resources

6. Back to campusWhat are your external resources?• Collaborations• Online• Professional organizations

How to develop• Support futures-oriented

people• Try out one of these methods• Hold planning/vision sessions• Share news, fiction

How to develop• Ad hoc or formal group?• “ “ “ “ process?• Partner locally• “ externally

Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop

1.Introductions2.Delphi method3.Environmental scanning4.Trend analysis5.Scenarios6.Implementation in your

organization

http://bryanalexander.org

bryan.alexander@gmail.com

http://twitter.com/bryanalexander