Literacy and the transition to adulthood in rural Malawi

LITERACY AND THE TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD IN RURAL MALAWI

Barbara S. Mensch, Stephanie Psaki, Erica Soler-HampejsekPopulation Council, New York

(Collaborators on research: Monica J. Grant, University of Wisconsin; Christine A. Kelly , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; and Paul C. Hewett, Population Council, Lusaka)

UNICEF International Symposium on Cohort and Longitudinal Studies in Developing Countries

Florence, Italy October 13, 2014

Background• In developing countries, considerable progress has

been achieved in:– increasing access to schooling – narrowing gender gap

• Focus shifting to improving learning outcomes, particularly in settings with enormous expansion in school enrollment but relatively poor school quality

• In part because longitudinal data are lacking, the extent to which skills are retained upon leaving school is largely unknown, as are – implications of early marriage and childbearing for

learning retention; and– implications of literacy skills for timing of marriage and

childbearing

Research questions• Do adolescent students in rural Malawi

acquire and retain basic literacy skills?• Is there a gender difference in acquisition

and retention of literacy skills? • What are the implications, if any, of early

marriage and childbearing for literacy skills?• What is the association, if any, between

literacy skills and the timing of marriage and childbearing?

Context: Malawi• Among world’s 10 poorest countries• Predominantly rural• Near universal access to primary school

since elimination of primary school fees in 1994

• Near gender parity in school entry • Education system: 8-4-4• Low primary completion rates:

approximately 51% of males and 38% of females aged 20-24 completed primary (Malawi DHS 2010)

• English official language of instruction in Standard 5 (may change to Standard 1)

YearStudent Sample Follow-Up Rate

2008 95%2009 93%2010 91%2011 91%2013 84%

6

• Balaka and Machinga districts: southern region (highest HIV prevalence, lowest age at marriage)

• 1764 in-school adolescents enrolled in standards 4-8 (886 out-of-school)

• Ages 14-16 at baseline, January 2007

• 59 schools: probability of inclusion proportional to enrollment in 2006

Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study (MSAS):Sample

Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study: Content• household and family characteristics, schooling history and experiences • school quality R1-3, 2007-9• Raven’s testing (non-verbal cognitive skills) R6, 2013• literacy and numeracy assessments• labor force participation • social capital and community engagement• migration • sexual behavior, marriage, fertility intentions, fertility, contraceptive use • self-reported health• mother (R1, 2007 and R6, 2013) and child height/weight (R6, 2013)• parenting practices, well-baby care • HIV and HSV-2 (testing R4-R6, 2010, 2011, 2013)• parenting practices (R6, 2013), well-baby care (R4-6, 2010, 2011, 2013) • use of health services (link to 2013 DHS Service Provision Assessment)

MSAS: English literacy assessments• Reading aloud R1-6: respondents asked to read 2 sentences in

English (proficiency expected by standard 4). Sentences taken verbatim from 2004 DHS.– Score = 0 cannot read – Score = 1 able to read parts of both sentences or one sentence

but not both– Score = 2 able to read both sentences

• Reading comprehension R2-6: limited to those who could read the first 3 sentences of a short story (approx. 80 words) aloud. Story taken verbatim from Malawi Institute of Education 2005 English test for Standard 3.– Score 0-5 according to the number of questions answered

correctly• Literacy loss: limited to those with a score>0 at baseline for

reading aloud and at R2 for reading comprehension

Timing of first marriage and first birth• Respondent is categorized as having a 1st

marriage/union or 1st birth if reports either of these events and reported in previous rounds having never been married/given birth

• Excluded small number of respondents who experienced marriage or childbirth by baseline

Do adolescent students in rural Malawi acquire and retain basic literacy skills?

Is there a gender difference in acquisition and retention of literacy skills?

Ability to read aloud and reading comprehension; MSAS respondents in school at baseline (N=766-794 males; 769-794 females)

Baseline 2007

Round 5 2011

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

68%

84%74%

75%**

Percent able to read aloud in English

Round 2 2008

Round 4 2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

1.8

2.6

1.5

1.8***

Mean number of correct answers to 5 reading com-

prehension questions

Statistically significant difference between males and females, adjusting for highest grade attended; *** p<.001; **p<.01

MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY

Change in ability to read aloud in English between baseline (2007) and R5 (2011)

MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 AND 2011)

Males Females 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

(N=797) (N=794)

Blues = no change, Greens = gain, Reds = loss

Was able to read

R1 R52

Sentences 2 Sentences

+ Some 2 Sentences

+ None 2 Sentences

+ None Some

Some Some

- 2 Sentences Some

- 2 Sentences None

- Some None

None None

Males Females0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

26%34%

15%

28%

59%

39%

GainSameLoss

(N=660) (N=672)

Change in reading comprehension between R2 (2008) and R4 (2010)


Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableFemale 3.02*** 1.63ƗRead parts of sentences at R1 (ref=both sentences) 0.59 Ɨ 0.22***Attended school, R5 0.12*** 0.35**Highest grade attended, R5 (ref=secondary school Standard 4-5 15.93*** 19.14*** Standard 6-7 9.70*** 6.49*** Standard 8 2.81** 1.78Worked in past 12 months, R5 0.61Ɨ 0.55*

LOSS IN ENGLISH READING SKILLS BETWEEN BASELINE AND R5: ODDS RATIOS FROM LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS SAMPLE= THOSE RE-INTERVIEWED IN R5 WHO COULD READ AT LEAST PART OF ONE SENTENCE IN ENGLISH AT BASELINE (N=1445)

Multivariable models include: cell phone access, books in HH, started primary late, repeated standards 1-3, age, ethnicity, parental education, HH assets.


Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableFemale 1.75*** 2.29***Comprehension score in R2 1.42*** 1.90***Attended school, R2 0.47** 0.80Attending school, R4 0.57*** 1.01Highest grade attended, R4 (ref=secondary school) Standard 4-5 3.28* 5.47** Standard 6-7 2.07*** 3.29*** Standard 8 1.42 Ɨ 2.10**Worked in past 12 months, R4 0.89 1.08

LOSS IN ENGLISH READING COMPREHENSION BETWEEN R2 AND 4: ODDS RATIOS FROM LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS SAMPLE = THOSE RE-INTERVIEWED IN R2 & R4 WHO READ 1ST 3 SENTENCES OF SHORT STORY IN ENGLISH AND ANSWERED AT LEAST ONE COMPREHENSION QUESTION CORRECTLY IN R2 (N=1086)

Multivariable models include: cell phone access, books in HH, started primary late, repeated standards 1-3, age, ethnicity, parental education, HH assets.


What are the implications, if any, of early marriage and childbearing for literacy skills?

PROBABILITY OF REMAINING UNMARRIED OR CHILDLESS FOR STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011 (N=875 MALES, 856 FEMALES)

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 50.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Male, MarriageMale, FatherhoodFemale, MarriageFemale, Moth-erhood

Prob

abili

ty

MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY (2007 - 2011)

EFFECT OF MARRIAGE ON ENGLISH READING ABILITY: RESULTS FROM LINEAR FIXED EFFECTS MODELS, FEMALE STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011

ENGLISH READING ABILITY =0 (CAN’T READ), 1 (PARTIAL), 2 (BOTH SENTENCES)


Fixed Effects Models

All female students at

baseline

Limited to those who could read

full sentences at baseline

Time since first marriage (ref = never married/before marriage)0-1 years -0.04 † -0.11 ***1-2 years -0.02 -0.08 *2-3 years -0.12 ** -0.15 ***3-4 years -0.15 ** -0.15 **

Educational attainment (ref = still in school)Dropped out, incomplete primary -0.10 ** -0.19 ***Dropped out, complete primary 0.009 0.01Dropped out, some secondary -0.003 0.01

English score at baseline -- --Number of observations 3837 2851 Number of groups (subjects) 801 592

All models exclude individuals who were lost to follow up between baseline and Round 5 (n = 55 females). Educational attainment and household items are lagged one round. Working/employed refers to the previous 12 month period. Household assets and work variables were included in the models.

EFFECT OF CHILDBIRTH ON ENGLISH READING ABILITY: RESULTS FROM LINEAR FIXED EFFECTS MODELS, FEMALE STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011

ENGLISH READING ABILITY =0 (CAN’T READ), 1 (PARTIAL), 2 (BOTH SENTENCES)


Fixed Effects Models

All female students at

baseline

Limited to those who could read

full sentences at baseline

Time since first birth (ref = no birth/before childbirth)0-1 years -0.04 -0.09 ***1-2 years -0.11 ** -0.10 ***2-3 years -0.10 * -0.09 *3-4 years -0.20 ** -0.23 ***

Educational attainment (ref = still in school) Dropped out, incomplete primary -0.09 ** -0.19 ***Dropped out, complete primary 0.03 0.01 Dropped out, some secondary 0.02 0.02

English score at baseline -- -- Number of observations 3837 2851 Number of groups (subjects) 801 592

All models exclude individuals who were lost to follow up between baseline and Round 5 (n = 55 females). Educational attainment and household items are lagged one round. Working/employed refers to the previous 12 month period. Household assets and work variables were included in the models.

What is the association, if any, between literacy skills and the timing of marriage and childbearing?

Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableEnglish reading (ref = cannot read)

Can read part 0.99 1.31

Can read both sentences 0.64* 1.04

Late entry into primary 1.32** 1.20

Early grade repetition (ref = none)

Once 0.83 0.85

More than once 1.10 1.06

Attending school (ref = no) 0.28*** 0.33***

Highest grade attended (ref = < standard 6)

Standard 6 or 7 0.78Ɨ 1.05

Standard 8 0.71* 1.10

Form 1 or higher (secondary school) 0.40*** 0.92

EFFECT OF LITERACY ON FIRST MARRIAGE: HAZARD RATIOS FROM COX MODELS, STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011 (N=856 FEMALES)

Multivariable models include: age, ethnicity, employment, parental education, HH assets.


Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableEnglish reading (ref = cannot read)

Can read part 0.91 1.15

Can read both sentences 0.67 Ɨ 1.16

Late entry into primary 1.25* 1.06

Early grade repetition (ref = none)

Once 0.83 0.80

More than once 0.94 0.89

Attending school (ref = no) 0.15*** 0.15***

Highest grade attended (ref = < standard 6)

Standard 6 or 7 0.78 Ɨ 1.23

Standard 8 0.68* 1.13

Form 1 or higher (secondary school) 0.37*** 1.19

EFFECT OF LITERACY ON FIRST BIRTH: HAZARD RATIOS FROM COX MODELS, STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011 (N=856 FEMALES)



EFFECT OF LITERACY ON SCHOOL DROPOUT: HAZARD RATIOS FROM COX MODELS, FEMALE STUDENTS AT BASELINE, 2007-2011 (N=869)

Explanatory Variable Bivariate MultivariableEnglish reading (ref=cannot read) Can read part 0.89 0.87 Can read both sentences 0.65* 0.65Ɨ

Highest grade attended (ref = < standard 6)Standard 6 or 7 0.78 Ɨ 0.95Standard 8 0.83 1.12Form 1 or higher (secondary school) 0.53*** 0.80

Late entry into primary (ref = entered on time) 1.24* 1.06Early grade repetition (ref=none) 1.04 0.95


Summary: Literacy & transitions to adulthood in Malawi• Many students are not acquiring basic literacy skills in

primary school; only 68% of males & 74% of females could read 2 English sentences aloud at baseline and comprehension is poor.

• Over time, adolescent females are less likely to gain and more likely to lose literacy skills.

• The gender difference in literacy retention remains significant in models controlling for school attendance, educational attainment, work, demographic characteristics and SES, reflecting broader female disadvantage.

• Preliminary analyses suggest that literacy skills weaken for females who have married or given birth; the effect appears to grow stronger as time since marriage or birth increases.

• While literacy does not have a direct effect on timing of marriage and childbearing controlling for current school attendance, it appears to have an indirect effect.

MALAWI SCHOOLING AND ADOLESCENT STUDY DONORS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur

National Institute of

Child Health and

Human Develop-

ment

DFID, U.K.

SpencerNational Institute of Child Health and

Human Development

William and Flora Hewlett

The Population Council conducts research and delivers solutions that improve lives around the world. Big ideas supported by evidence: It’s our model for global change.

Ideas. Evidence. Impact.

Data & Analytics

Literacy and the transition to adulthood in rural Malawi