Chasing Perfection: How Standardization of Elite Sport Horse Conformation and Judging Ideals Drive Up Scores

Standardization to a perfect score, Holliday, 002140-0008

Chasing Perfection: How Standardization of Elite Sport Horse

Conformation and Judging Ideals Drive Up Scores

Exercise Science

McKenna Holliday 002140-0008

Word Count: 3816

May 2014 Examination Session

1


Table of Contents

Abstract……………………………………..…………………………..…………… 3

Introduction……………………………………….……………………..……………4

Figure Skating.……….……….…………………………………………...………….6

Table 2.1 Comparisons of judging……………………………………………7

The Rasch Model to Dressage (Part 1)……………….……….………...…...

………..8

Figure 3.1 KWPN Conformation Score sheet……………………….…...

…..11

Figure 3.2 Chopin Conformation…………………………….……....………12

Figure 3.3 Valegro Conformation……………………………………………13

The Rasch Model to Dressage (Part 2)……………….…………………...…………14

Real Improvement or simply grade

inflation?..................................................

...........16

Conclusion……………………….………………………………………….….……17

Reference list…………………………………………………………………….…..19

2


Abstract

Word Count: 278

Incredible scores, such as the dressage Grand Prix

Special world record of 88.022% are increasingly common on

the international stage, especially within the last few

decades. This paper will examine two aspects of the issue;

elite sport horse conformation and standardization of

judging ideals, to provide a viable and convincing argument

to the declining future of international competitive

dressage due to the inflation of scores. The implications of

the argument will be presented through the use of the Rasch

Model, and its purpose to address the two aspects of the

paper. The Rasch Model is a statistical model intended to

predict scores based upon quantitative variables. The Rasch

model consists of two core factors: sport horse

conformation, or the overall quality of build of an

individual equine, and the standardization of judging

ideals. Also addressed is the similarity between the judging

of figure skating and the foreshadowing effect of the

previous scandals that have occurred. This model provides

3


dressage a unique perspective to avoid possible consequences

that have the potential to occur as they did with elite

figure skating. This paper presents convincing evidence that

within the last 100 years, both dressage horse conformation

and judging ideals have been standardized for elite

international competition. The research question addressed

in this paper is whether the increase in scores is due to an

actual improvement in the elite dressage community, or if it

is simply grade inflation, caused by factors addressed in

this paper. The implications of a perfect score are too

great to be overlooked, and the intention of this paper is

to demonstrate both the causation of the acceleration

towards this outcome and a means to avoid it.

Introduction

Dressage, in its most basic context, is a sport

demonstrating the elegance and grace of the horse with

little to no visible interference of the rider. Dressage was

originally created as a means to prove equine excellence in

the Greek Calvary. Xenophon, the credited creator, invented

it for obedience and maneuverability training for the

4


military horses of his State. Modern day dressage is still

engrained in the traditional militarism, but is now used

purely for sport purposes.

According to Betsy Berry, a USEF “S” judge (2009),

“Dressage is a numbers game” (pg. 32). In all competition,

the horse is ridden in a test of varying difficulty and

scored in a first set of marks on a 1-10 scale for each

movement by a panel of one to five judges. At the end of the

test, the horse/rider pair is scored again in a second set

of marks, called the collectives (paces, impulsion,

submission, rider’s position and seat, and harmony) and of

which are also based on the same 1-10 scale. In the case of

some movements being considered more important within the

level, the scores are doubled and referred to as the

“coefficient” scores. Final scores are presented in a

percentage, with average scores in the regional levels

typically between 55-65% and with an excellent score

considered a 70% or above. The winner of the class will have

been awarded the highest percentage.

5


One of the key defining elements of dressage is the

virtual impossibility to receive a perfect score. Dressage

training is intended to last a lifetime for both horse and

rider. Therefore, the causation of the seemingly inexorable

path to a perfect score is questioned. The majority of

typical dressage horses do not achieve the highest levels,

and those that do are most often ten years old or older. As

the dressage horse matures, it progresses up the established

levels set forth by The International Federation for

Equestrian Sports (Fédération Équestre Internationale; FEI).

The international competition levels are, in order from

relative easiest to hardest, Prix St. Georges, Intermediare

I & II, and Grand Prix. The Olympic qualifying test is the

Grand Prix Special, which is considered more difficult than

the standard Grand Prix test due to its emphasis on

transitions between movements as well as the individual

movements themselves. The term “Elite horse/rider” is

specifically referring to those who compete on the

international stage successfully.

6


As reported by Astrid Appels (2012), in the 2012

Olympics, the world record for the highest Grand Prix

Special score, achieved by Charlotte Dujardin on her mount

Valegro, was an 88.022%. This score, as accompanied by the

previous record (84.08%) by Edward Gal and Totilas (BBC,

2009), demonstrate the incredible scores achieved by elite

riders. Much controversy surrounds the achievement of these

scores and whether or not they speak to the health, or to

the degradation of the sport, which is seemingly well on the

way to the perfect 100%.

Much of the current concerns in the dressage community

have also previously affected the figure skating world, and

the major issues that figure skating has encountered will be

discussed in this paper as a possible foreshadowing of

event, to come in dressage. Though there is no current

scholarly work on the potential perfect score in dressage,

there is a surplus on the judging controversies of figure

skating. Despite the lack of direct references to the

implications of a perfect score in dressage, much of the

work cited in this paper can be applied to both dressage and

7


figure skating, due to the similarities of judging between

the two sports.

In this paper, evidence will be provided to confirm

that both elite dressage horse conformation, in way of the

quality of build of the individual equine, and judging

ideals have been standardized for international and Olympic

competition. The research question addressed in this paper

is whether the increase in scores is due to an actual

improvement in the elite dressage community, or if it is

simply grade inflation, caused by factors addressed in this

paper. Further, these major factors have created enough of

an effect to propel elite dressage to the possible

achievement of a perfect score through inflation alone.

Additionally discussed will be the foreshadowing of judging

corruption of figure skating, from the implications of a

perfect score, to a methodology to analyze judging trends in

order to prevent similar occurrences of the 2002 Winter

Olympic figure skating scandal from reoccurring in the

dressage world. The paper include a discussion of the Rasch

model and its significance, and discuss the two crucial

8


points of the Rasch model, and the specific variable

associated in the physical equation, before delving into the

implications of the causation of a perfect score.

Figure Skating

During the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, Kim Yuna, a

professional figure skater from Korea, achieved the world

record total score (228.56) (Yonhap, 2013). Controversy and

scandal during the 2002 Olympics in Salt Lake City has

somewhat marred the integrity of the sport, and led to an

entire transformation of the judging process (Amegashie,

2004). The occurrences of corruption in figure skating give

strong evidence to similar possible occurrences in dressage

due to the resemblances of the judging of the two sports.

According to Amegashie, “In the wake of a judging

controversy at the Winter 2002 Olympic Games the governing

council of the International Skating Union (ISU) scrapped

its judging system, replacing it with a new system which

uses scores from only some of the judges, selected

randomly.” (2004, pg. 1). Similar in the judging of the two

9


sports, each movement is “given a mark, or grade of

execution (GOE)…based only on how well the element was

preformed, not how difficult it was” (US Figure Skating,

2009). Despite the lack of judging based upon difficulty, it

is still realistic to question inflation, due to the

diminishing ability for the judge to be subjective in

opinion of movement. As is said by Bonnie Walker, “any trend

towards falling standards hurts the integrity of our sport”

(2013, pg. 68). Similar to the collective scores in

dressage, a second set of marks given is called the program

components score, composed of 5 factors (skating skills,

transitions, performance/execution,

choreography/composition, and interpretation). The total

score (the technical element score, added with the program

component score) is presented as a whole number. Table 2.1

demonstrates the similarities of the judging of both sports.

Dressage Judging Figure Skating Judging

A scaled (1-10) mark for eachmovement/transition

A scaled (1-6) mark for each movement/transition

Collective scores Component scores

Judged based on the quality Judged based on the quality

10


of the movement and not the difficulty

of the movement and not the difficulty

Judges accord to a set of objectives per level/movement

Judges are to follow a set ofobjectives for each movement

In 2002, the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City

experienced a massive scandal that rocked the figure skating

world and its future. One of the judges on the official

panel was bribed into intentionally scoring the Canadian

pair lower marks as compared to the Russian team. Exposure

of this scandal assumed the necessity for a complete

reevaluation of the judging processes to subsequently change

“to one that put less weight on the judges’ scores, but the

compatriot judge effect on those scores again increased…”

(Zitzewitz, 2010, pg. 1).

Due to the similarities in the judging processes of

figure skating to dressage, figure skating will continue to

be a comparison point throughout the paper. Since the 2002

scandal, figure skating has continued to go through a

reformation process, recently demonstrated by the fact that

“The aggregation method was also changed from median ranking

to a trimmed mean.” (Zitzewitz, 2010, pg. 5) One of the

11


methods to counter-acting this problem is by using

statistical models to explicate the outliers (e.g. the Rasch

model). This recent reformation process derailed figure

skating from the same track that dressage is currently

riding, but still beckons the question for the causation of

the score inflation.

Rasch Model

The Rasch Model is a statistical model that was

originally designed to show trends in education and polling

questions. However, the model has also been applied to

sports (Kang & Kang, 2006), and also more specifically,

figure skating (Looney, 2004). Since the model has the

ability to demonstrate trends, it has the potential to

demonstrate future possibilities in both figure skating and

dressage. The model may be used to analyze judging trends in

past years, and potentially pinpoint the cause of inflation.

In broad terms, the Rasch Model discerns two key points

which will be validated in great detail in this paper, (a)

the respondent’s abilities or traits (i.e. sport horse

conformation) and (b) Item difficulty, or in this case,

12


dressage judging ideals. These two key points will be

discussed in two parts within this work. M. Looney of

Northern Illinois University created an equation to apply

the Rasch Model to figure skating (2012). Looney’s modified

version at i), in which the variables have been altered to

pertain to dressage1. The Rasch model does not have any

published application towards dressage specifically, and

despite the current lack of hard data, still can be

postulated for analytical purposes. The modified Rasch model

equation is:

i) ln[ Pnijk

Pnij(k−1)]=Bn−Di−Cj−Fk, Where

Pnijk = probability of rider n being scored k by judge j on

test i

Pnij(k-1) = probability of rider n being scored k – 1 by

judge j on test i

Bn = Difficulty of competition participation of rider n

(scale 1-10)

1 Thanks to Kelsey Wooley for collaboration on the definition of variables and adaption of Rasch model equation.

13


Di = Difficulty of test i (scale 1-10)

Cj = severity of judge j or Cj = X±3σ(see explanation

below)

Fk = rating of horse’s overall conformation (scale 1-

100)

The difficulty of the competition and difficulty of the

test must be noted to account for the possibility of

difficulty bias, or that “Athletes attempting more difficult

routines receive higher scores, even when difficulty and

execution are judged separately.” (Morgan, 2013, pg. 1). The

severity of the judging is accounted by Cj=X±3σ or that the

entirety of the judge’s given scores are averaged and any

outliers of the entire career of the judge are accounted for

by 3σ. The rating of the conformation is obtained from the

common 1-100 scale of in-hand judged sport horses, which

occurs before every set of Olympic Games. Conformation

judging is based upon a standardized set of analyzed points.

Each one of these points is given a score, and then the

final overall score is placed into the Rasch model to

account for the quality of the individual equine’s

14


conformation. It is therefore important that both the

analyzed points and the significance of them are discussed

within this work. The two key variables discussed in this

paper are Cj and Fk. These are imperative to pinpointing the

cause of inflation, which is furthering the possibility of a

perfect score.

Part A of the Rasch model; Sport horse conformation

Equine conformation judging is a heavily practiced tool

of evaluation for talent, level, potential, and value.

According to Christian Schacht (2011), "conformation

supports security of rhythm and length of stride and allows

you to recognize a horse’s talent…” Schacht places the most

emphasis on the “upper neckline…shoulder center of rotation,

its position and length, as well as the shape of the croup

[to determine] the potential quality of gaits.” (Pg. 22) It

is also important to note the most important features that

are judged and scored in order to be quantifiable to further

the Rasch Model. As the conformation of the sport horse

continues to become more and more quantifiable, it continues

to become increasingly standardized, and therefore

15


perpetuates the inflation problem. To start, in figure 3.1,

the points analyzed for the KWPN of North America are

demonstrated. These points of reference allow insight into

the quantifiable conformation points, as well as the

incentive for standardization. As stated, conformation is a

key component that may indicate a horse’s capabilities, and

also predict ability to campaign hard enough to reach

international standards successfully before the horse is too

old or unusable. Though it is common to see a horse in its

late teens on the international stage, in recent years, the

5, 6, and 7 year-old Young Horse Championships have placed a

new-found emphasis on the upper level training by the time

the horse is approximately seven (or even younger), and much

earlier than was the precedence before the start of these

competitions. This is important to note due to its

applicability of the necessity of incredible conformation to

achieve the physical feat to undertake the amount of levels

required in so short a time.

However, this does not mean that only a specific horse

can ever do dressage, it only signifies that most horses,

16


without the ideal conformation, would not be able to

campaign at the rate and intensity as one who is ideal. The

other aspect of the in-hand conformation evaluation is the

outlier that does have noticeable or important flaws and who

still is successful.

Figure 3.1 (previous page)

Inserted in this paper is a photograph of both Chopin,

a seven-year-old Oldenburg

-Cross gelding, owned and competed by MJ Babcock, and

trained by Bethany Wilhelmsen, to represent the average

dressage horse, and Valegro, an eleven year old KWPN

17


gelding, the receiver of the world record Grand Prix Special

score and ridden by Charlotte Dujardin, to represent the

elite dressage horse, compared side by side with Schacht’s

method of observation, and with outlined points of interest

inserted by the author. (See figure 3.2 and 3.3) The

purpose of the side-by-side figures are to demonstrate the

potential differences in conformation and to demonstrate its

necessity to be quantified in the Rasch model.

Figure 3.2 Chopin conformation

18


Figure 3.3 Valegro conformation

This simplified demonstration is representative enough

to see that, although there are similarities between both

horses, the visible differences in conformation indicate

that Valegro holds a clear advantage over the “average”

dressage horse. Comparing lines (A), it is apparent that the

center of gravity between the two horses intersects at

different points of the topline than the other. Valegro’s

19


correct center of gravity is closer to the center of his

body, while Chopin’s is closer to the shoulder. This impacts

the horse’s ability to sit on his haunch and lift the

shoulder in the ultra-collected movements. Line (B)

determines the hip angles, which specify the part of the

horse that powers through the collection and keeps the

haunch balanced. “A straight croup…find it hard to step far

under their center of gravity to round their back up

sufficiently to develop carrying power required in

dressage.” (Schacht, 2011). Line (C) demonstrates the

openness of the throatlatch. This indicates the horse’s

ability to round the neck and back sufficiently so that the

horse has the ability to come over the topline, and

demonstrate the movements correctly. Though Chopin receives

impressive scores and is ranked within the region at his

level (Wilhelmsen, 2013), his potential for upper-level

international competition is limited by his conformation

faults, despite his ultra-correct training during his

campaigning career. Valegro, with his incredible uphill

conformation, shoulder angle, neck placement, and croup

20


shape, is the epitome of an ideal dressage horse. Though

Valegro and his equals represent the pinnacle of dressage

horse conformation presently, they also create a situation

to advance standardization of the elite sport horse, by way

of improving the next generation. Correct conformation

provides Valegro a significant advantage over Chopin by

inherently providing a greater ease of both learning and

executing the movements, and maintaining the stamina to

sustain and finish the test correctly and consistently

impressive.

Part B; Judging Ideals

The virtual impossibility of a perfect score very much

rests in the hands of the judges. As the ideals are

examining with increased specificity and thusly, more

tangible standardization, the judging system causes a more

attainable perfection. In Pre-Olympic dressage, there was

both more variety in the conformation of the dressage horse

and also more variety of judging ideals and points of view

on “perfection”. Once dressage was integrated into the

Olympic Games in the late 1800’s, however, a great wave of

21


standardization took place. The cornerstone of

standardization was the instigation of the Fédération

Équestre Internationale in 1921. The FEI is the governing

body over the entirety of equestrian sport, and which also

governs over the dressage global community. It is also the

organization that sets forth the international tests for all

upper level competitors, including elite horse and rider

combinations. The federation sets forth tests that follow

these ideal objectives and are altered every four years to

remain continuing this trend. The tests are also a proponent

of the standardization, as they are based on a “perfect”

ideal.

All judges must go through a specific education program

and pass a qualifying test to be eligible to judge, even at

the regional level and below. All judges are taught to look

for specific, designated desired qualities and base their

scores on the same scale. The purpose of the education is

also to intentionally standardize scores, for the purpose of

creating equality amongst the judges, and also giving a

usable quantifiable score to allow and perpetuate correct

22


progression of both horse and rider. In consequence,

however, this is yet another means of standardization in

dressage, despite its requirement within the sport. Despite

the issues provoked by the standardization of both education

and a set ideal put forth by the FEI, it is a seemingly

necessary evil; as it is more important to maintain the

subjectivity of the judges for both a useable feedback

option as well as to retain the potential dishonest

abilities of judges, such as taking bribes for good scores,

and the like.

As stated by Yukins, “[Scores by a panel of judges] are

usually very consistent unless something happened to have

gone much better or worse in the tests…the phenomenon may

[also] occur, however, when a judge tends to “wear a Santa

Claus hat…[” or in other words, give consistently, and

sometimes significantly, higher scores.]” (2013, Pg. 31)

This could possibly be considered a foreshadowing for

dressage as the 2002 figure skating scandal was one of which

the judge gave significantly lower scores to a specific pair

for exchange of a bribe, and is also a possible occurrence

23


in competition of which there is a panel of judges, as is

true in elite dressage. Though perfection is a looming

possible detriment to dressage as it creates a peak of

performance that cannot be surpassed, some aspects of the

standardization are necessary to preserve the integrity of

the sport in order to maintain an ever-improving discipline.

Real improvement, or simply grade inflation?

The basis of this work is to demonstrate the path of

the current elite dressage world towards that of continued

increased standardization, as well as a currently

unrelenting inflation of scores. Though there has been an

undeniable improvement in both the execution of the

movements and the quality of competition on the

international stage, there is a massive aspect of score

inflation that is causing the accelerated track towards a

perfect score. The principal proponent towards the perfect

score is that of across-the-board standardization throughout

all elements of dressage. Though necessary aspects of the

sport cause some of this standardization, there must be, at

the very least, an analysis of trends through the use of the

24


Rasch model, or a similar device. Understanding the current

trends would allow both a method of capping the inflation

and also sanction a means to prevent a future rebound.

Revisiting the Rasch model helps us show that it can be

a powerfully informative analytical tool. The Rasch model

has already been used for figure skating to accomplish the

same goal, and because of this we can see its ability to

demonstrate trends among judges in a similar sport. This

research, preformed in part by M. Looney of Northern

Illinois University, was intended to “(a) determine if the

judges’ scores fit the Rasch rating scale model; (b)

determine if judges, in general, had trouble evaluating

transitions….” (Looney, 2012, pg. 57) These two things can

also be evaluated with dressage as an answer to the question

of the amount of inflation in dressage, as well as to point

out the weaknesses in the current judging system of

dressage, as it has done in Looney’s analysis of judging for

figure skating.

Despite the current lack of hard data to define the

quantitative inflation of scores, use of the Rasch model

25


with real data would be effective in evidencing the rising

inflation of dressage scores, and this can be proven by its

success with analyzing figure skating data for the purpose

of weeding out corruption.

Conclusion

The evidence supplied in this paper is intended to

demonstrate the increasing ability for the achievement of a

perfect score in elite dressage, very much due to the

collective standardization in the sport. With the

achievement of a perfect score, the bedrock of dressage

(i.e. the impossibility of perfection) would be both

shattered and would also greatly alter the key incentives of

the community striving for a supposedly impossible goal. The

continued standardization of conformation has been further

perpetuated by the observation and scoring model of which

the internationally competing horses are rated on the day

before competition. This factor, since quantified, has been

a influential aspect in deciding potential of the subject of

interest and closing the gap between the uniqueness of each

competing equine.

26


The use of the modified Rasch Model is an attempt to

demonstrate a possible observational point in which judging

trends can be both analyzed and monitored. The potential use

of the model has also provided a means for the top

organizations to be proactive about slowing, or even

stopping, the progression to a perfect score.

A look at the data reveals its potential to be

successful in uncovering both the ratio of actual

improvement of the dressage community versus the inflation

amid the ever-growing standardization of the sport, and also

in finding the major proponents of the inflation.

In closing, it is important to note that the Rasch

Model is simply a breakdown of the significant factors that

can be quantified. With the exception of the judges score

input, there is no quantifiable data about the harmony

between the horse and rider, nor how either of the

individuals is feeling on a specific day, both factors of

which can greatly modify the performance and resulting

score. However, it is important to analyze the available

quantifiable data so that there is an opportunity for the

27


dressage community to decipher the data and understand the

direction that we are headed and, if any are decided to be

necessary, provide solutions to prevent similar occurrences

that have marred the past of figure skating from happening

in the dressage world as well.

28


ReferencesAmegashie, J. A. (2006). The 2002 Winter Olympics Scandal: Rent-seeking and committees. Social Choice and Welfare, 26, 183–189.

BBC. (2012, December 18). Charlotte Dujardin sets grand prixworld record at Olympia. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/equestrian/20766671

Betsy, B. (2009, June). Get more 10s on the 6.5 horse. USDF Connection, 32-34.

Centerline Scores. (n.d) Bethany Wilhelmsen test scores. Retrieved from http://centerlinescores.com/Horse/Details/1094859#filterBy=scores

Chopin Conformation [Photograph] (2013) Obtained by author.

Kang, S. J., & Kang, M. (2006). Rasch calibration of perceived weights of different sports games. Informally published manuscript, Department of Physical Education; Department of Health and Human Services, Korea National Sport University, Seoul, South Korea; Middle Tennessee StateUniversity, Murfreesboro, TN.

KWPN Linear Scoring [Diagram] (2007-2008) Retrieved from: http://kwpn-na.org/keuring/scoring.php

Looney, M. A. (2012). Judging anomalies at the 2010 Olympicsin men's figure skating. Department of Kinesiology and Physical Education, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois.

Morgan, Hillary N. and Rotthoff, Kurt W. (2013). The Harder the Task, the Higher the Score: Findings of a Difficulty Bias (June 28, 2013). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1555094 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1555094

US Figure Skating. (2009-2010) A User’s Guide to the ISU

29

http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1555094

http://centerlinescores.com/Horse/Details/1094859#filterBy=scores

http://centerlinescores.com/Horse/Details/1094859#filterBy=scores

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/equestrian/20766671


Judging System for Synchronized Skating. Colorado Springs, CO: US Figure Skating Association.

Valegro Having His Feedcheck [Photograph] (2012) Retrieved: http://www.horseandcountry.tv/news/2012/11/16/olympic-riders-launch-new-feed-balancer

Walker, B. (2013, October). Our responsibility to dressage judges. USDF Connection, 15(5), 68.

Yonhap. (2013, March 16). Kim Yu-na world championships. TheGlobal Post. Retrieved from http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/yonhap-news-agency/130317/kim-yu-na-world-championships-1

Yukins, L. (2012/2013). Myths, mysteries, and misconceptions. USDF Connection, 30-34.

Zitzewitz, E. (2010). Does transparency really increase corruption? Evidence from the 'Reform' of Figure Skating Judging. Informally published manuscript, Dartmouth College,Hanover, NH, Retrieved from http://www.dartmouth.edu/~ericz/transparency.pdf.

30

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/yonhap-news-agency/130317/kim-yu-na-world-championships-1

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/yonhap-news-agency/130317/kim-yu-na-world-championships-1

http://www.horseandcountry.tv/news/2012/11/16/olympic-riders-launch-new-feed-balancer

http://www.horseandcountry.tv/news/2012/11/16/olympic-riders-launch-new-feed-balancer

Documents

Chasing Perfection: How Standardization of Elite Sport Horse Conformation and Judging Ideals Drive Up Scores