1 Overview Community Health Modeling Working Group Meeting Planning and Technical Support Division August 27, 2003 Air Resources Board California Environmental

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  • OverviewCommunity Health Modeling Working Group Meeting

    Planning and Technical Support Division

    August 27, 2003Air Resources BoardCalifornia Environmental Protection AgencyA_Overview_082703.ppt

  • Overview of the DayMorning:Overview of Current EffortsWilmington ProtocolStatewide Protocol Afternoon:December 2003 Board ItemOpen discussionYour feedbackPeer Review

  • Overview of Current Efforts

  • RecapARB Policy Specific Actions Regional maps showing estimated cancer health risksASPEN for nowDevelop tools for assessments of cumulative emissions, exposure, and health risk on a neighborhood scale and provide maps showing the results at the neighborhood level. Regional maps showing air pollution emission sources (I.e, CHAPIS)New Statewide Risk Modeling and Maps

  • PlanConduct refined, neighborhood-scale air quality modeling studies of toxic emissions for cumulative sources Barrio LoganWilmingtonExtend neighborhood-scale experience to approach that is applicable to any location in the StateStatewide Protocol

  • Neighborhood-Scale(Wilmington)

  • Statewide

  • Modeling Approach and ToolsEmissions andMeteorologyMicroscaleModelingRegional ModelingIntegratedResultsRisk AssessmentMapping andVisualizationUpdatedModelingProtocolModeling FrameworkStatewide ModelingProtocolWilmington ModelingProtocolBarrio LoganModelingProtocolHARPCHAPISUpdates & Improvements

  • External ReviewWorking Group EvaluationsIndependent Scientific Peer Review PanelMr. John, Irwin, US-EPADr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC DavisDr. Christian Seigneur, Atms. and Env. Research, Inc.Dr. Steve Hanna, George Mason UniversityStatewide ModelingProtocolWilmington ModelingProtocolBarrio LoganModelingProtocol

  • ChallengesObjective is NewPrior protocols based on regulatory applicationsRegional Ozone Modeling (e.g. SIP)Local Scale Single Sources (e.g. NSR, AB2588, etc)No established metrics for model performance for annual toxicsNew Protocols Currently Under DevelopmentCumulative Source Modeling AnalysesWorkshops & Peer Review

  • Challenges (Continued)EmissionsStack Characterization and Activity Data for key sourcesHigher Resolution for Areawide Sources (e.g. Offroad Diesel)Consistency of Microscale and Regional InventoriesMeteorologyMicroscale Input Availability and RepresentativenessConsistency of Microscale and Regional Met (e.g. years)Regional Met Model Run Times (~months)ModelingPerformance Metric Rigor not yet establishedRegional and Microscale Model ChoicesMobile Source Input Data: Spatial and Temporal ResolutionRegional AQ Model Run Times (~months at 4km x 4km)Interest in Finer Grid ResolutionsIntegrationDouble Counting of Emission Sources

  • StatusBarrio Logan (Pilot Study #1)Peer Reviewed Protocol (Complete)Field Study (Complete)Modeling (Nearing Completion) Wilmington (Pilot Study #2)Protocol In ProgressField Study In ProgressStatewide Protocol Development In Progress

  • ScheduleOctober 2003CHAPISNovember 2003Final Barrio Logan ReportFinal Statewide ProtocolFinal Wilmington ProtocolDecember 2003Board HearingRegional Modeling Results:Southern California 1st Quarter 2004Northern California 3rd Quarter 2004Microscale Modeling ResultsSouthern California 1st Half 2004

  • Next.Neighborhood-Scale ProtocolWilmingtonStatewide Modeling ProtocolRegional Modeling Microscale ModelingIntegration

    The master statewide modeling protocol is a living document that embodies the most up-to-date approach. It will evolve by building upon results and experience gained in subsequent modeling studies (like Barrio Logan and Wilmington). The statewide protocol will address modeling approaches for both refined, neighborhood scale applications as well as statewide risk mapping applications. Shortcuts to bridge the gap between refined, neighborhood-scale applications and statewide applications are expected to be necessary due to time and resource constraints.Since the first case study was conducted in Barrio Logan it is furthest along in progress. Preliminary Barrio Logan modeling results are now available whereas modeling for Wilmington and Statewide has not been started. Thus, we will be presenting modeling results for Barrio Logan only.

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