Quarter Data MA CMA Percentage Seasonal ratio Average Seasonal Ratio1 218 0.882 247 0.983 243 250 250.88 96.86 0.974 292 251.75 252.63 115.59 1.161 225 253.5 255.00 88.24 0.88 0.882 254 256.5 257.38 98.69 0.99 0.983 255 258.25 259.38 98.31 0.98 0.974 299 260.5 261.88 114.18 1.14 1.161 234 263.25 264.38 88.51 0.892 265 265.5 269.00 98.51 0.993 264 272.5 274.50 96.17 0.964 327 276.5 278.75 117.31 1.171 250 281 284.13 87.99 0.882 283 287.25 290.88 97.29 0.973 289 294.54 356

Quarter Data Seasonal ratio Deseasonalize1 218 0.88 247.732 247 0.98 252.043 243 0.97 250.884 292 1.16 252.631 225 0.88 255.002 254 0.99 257.383 255 0.98 259.384 299 1.14 261.881 234 0.89 264.382 265 0.99 269.003 264 0.96 274.504 327 1.17 278.751 250 0.88 284.132 283 0.97 290.883 289 0.97 297.944 356 1.16 306.90

Trendline

X Y1 247.732 252.043 250.884 252.635 255.006 257.387 259.38

8 261.889 264.38

10 269.0011 274.5012 278.7513 284.1314 290.88 Intercept 237.8215 297.94 Slope 3.6616 306.90

y x x x xSales t (time period) Q1 Q2 Q3

218 1 1 0 0247 2 0 1 0243 3 0 0 1292 4 0 0 0225 5 1 0 0254 6 0 1 0255 7 0 0 1299 8 0 0 0234 9 1 0 0265 10 0 1 0264 11 0 0 1327 12 0 0 0250 13 1 0 0283 14 0 1 0289 15 0 0 1356 16 0 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.98424395825R Square 0.96873616935Adjusted R 0.95736750366Standard E 7.67070875Observatio 16

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 4 20055.2 5013.8 85.21107 3.342E-08Residual 11 647.2375 58.83977Total 15 20702.44

Coefficients Standard Et Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.Intercept 281.5625 5.753032 48.94159 3.18E-14 268.9002 294.2248 268.9002t 3.69375 0.428806 8.614042 3.212E-06 2.749955 4.637545 2.749955Q1 -75.66875 5.574474 -13.57415 3.246E-08 -87.93808 -63.39942 -87.93808Q2 -48.8625 5.491392 -8.898017 2.343E-06 -60.94897 -36.77603 -60.94897Q3 -52.05625 5.440934 -9.567521 1.148E-06 -64.03166 -40.08084 -64.03166

Upper 95.0%294.22484.637545

-63.39942-36.77603-40.08084

x yQuarter Data Trend Line

1 274 197.262 172 196.933 130 196.594 162 196.265 282 195.926 178 195.597 136 195.258 168 194.929 282 194.58

10 182 194.2511 134 193.9112 170 193.5813 296 193.2414 210 192.9115 158 192.5716 182 192.24

Intercept 197.6Slope -0.34

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.028R Square 0.001Adjusted R -0.071Standard Er 58.65Observation 16

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 38.22353 38.22352941 0.011111311963 0.917546Residual 14 48160.78 3440.055462Total 15 48199

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Intercept 197.6 30.75736 6.424478367 1.58850518E-05 131.632 263.568X Variable 1 -0.3352941 3.180851 -0.10541021 0.917545719649 -7.15754 6.486952

Quarter Data MA CMA Percentages Seasonal Ratio Deseasonalized

1 1 274 1.47 186.60212 2 172 0.96 178.87083 3 130 184.50 185.50 70.08 0.70 185.54 4 162 186.50 187.25 86.52 0.87 187.251 5 282 188.00 188.75 149.40 1.49 188.752 6 178 189.50 190.25 93.56 0.94 190.253 7 136 191.00 191.00 71.20 0.71 1914 8 168 191.00 191.50 87.73 0.88 191.51 9 282 192.00 191.75 147.07 1.47 191.752 10 182 191.50 191.75 94.92 0.95 191.753 11 134 192.00 193.75 69.16 0.69 193.754 12 170 195.50 199.00 85.43 0.85 1991 13 296 202.50 205.50 144.04 1.44 205.52 14 210 208.50 210.00 100.00 1.00 2103 15 158 211.50 0.70 225.23564 16 182 183.33 0.87 210.2661

Intercept 176.90Slope 2.18

Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%131.632 263.568

-7.15754 6.486952

Trend Line

Year x DJIA Trend SR F Error MAD MSE1994 1 3754 5769.214 2015.21 2015.21 40610891995 2 3834 6166.581 2332.58 2332.58 54409351996 3 5117 6563.948 1446.95 1446.95 20936591997 4 6448 6961.315 513.32 513.32 2634921998 5 7908 7358.682 -549.32 549.32 3017501999 6 9213 7756.049 -1456.95 1456.95 21227072000 7 11502 8153.416 -3348.58 3348.58 112130162001 8 10791 8550.783 -2240.22 2240.22 50185742002 9 10022 8948.15 -1073.85 1073.85 11531552003 10 8342 9345.517 1003.52 1003.52 10070452004 11 10453 9742.883 -710.12 710.12 5042662005 12 10784 10140.25 -643.75 643.75 4144142006 13 10718 10537.62 -180.38 180.38 325382007 14 12460 10934.98 -1525.02 1525.02 23256732008 15 13262 11332.35 -1929.65 1929.65 37235452009 16 8772 11729.72 2957.72 2957.72 87480962010 17 10431 12127.08 1696.08 1696.08 28767042011 18 11577 12524.45 947.45 947.45 8976652012 19 12392 12921.82 529.82 529.82 2807082013 20 13104 13319.19 215.19 215.19 46305

5.46E-13 1365.78 2626267

Intercept 5371.85Slope 397.37

Exponential Smoothing α 0.8 SEβ 0.2 MSE

Year DJIA F T FIT Error MSE1994 3754 3754 0 37541995 3834 3754 0 3754 80 64001996 5117 3818 13 3831 1286 16543101997 6448 4859.76 219 5078 1370 18759361998 7908 6174.07 438 6612 1296 16801191999 9213 7648.761 645 8294 919 8447672000 11502 9029.178 792 9821 1681 28245432001 10791 11165.87 1061 12227 -1436 20619792002 10022 11078.19 831 11910 -1888 35627512003 8342 10399.51 529 10929 -2587 66917112004 10453 8859.367 115 8975 1478 21850682005 10784 10157.36 352 10509 275 754562006 10718 10729.06 396 11125 -407 165616

2007 12460 10799.39 331 11130 1330 17684312008 13262 12194.04 544 12738 524 2750042009 8772 13157.12 627 13785 -5013 251259582010 10431 9774.516 -175 9600 831 6906192011 11577 10264.79 -42 10223 1354 18327542012 12392 11306.24 175 11481 911 8294422013 13104 12209.85 321 12531 573 3287972014 13104 12989.32 412 13402

MAPE53.681860.839428.2773

7.96086.9464

15.814129.113120.760110.714912.0297

6.79345.96951.6830

12.239314.550233.717716.2600

8.18394.27551.6421

17.5726

1693.325303021492867351