Changing Demographics in Texas

Changing Demographics in Texas

2011 Texas Labor Management Conference

June 22, 2011San Antonio, TX

2

Total Population and Percent Population Changein Texas and the United States, 1850-2010

Year* Texas U.S. Texas U.S. 1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- --- 1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.6 1870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.6 1880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.0 1890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.5 1900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.7 1910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.0 1920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.9 1930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.1 1940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.2 1950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.5 1960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.0 1970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.4 1980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.4 1990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.8 2000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.2 2010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7 * All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year.

3

Growing States, 2000-2010

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

15.7% of numerical change in U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

4

Population Change of Fast Growing States between 2000 and 2010

Texas

California

Florid

a

Georgia

North Caro

lina

Arizona

Virginia

Washingto

n

Colorado

Nevada

Tennessee

4,29

3,74

1

3,38

2,30

8

2,81

8,93

2

1,50

1,20

0

1,48

6,17

0

1,26

1,38

5

922,

509

830,

419

727,

935

702,

294

656,

822

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

5

Percent ChangeDue to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangeNatural

IncreaseNet

MigrationPercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33

* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009

6

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to 2001

2001 to 2002

2002 to 2003

2003 to 2004

2004 to 2005

2005 to 2006

2006 to 2007

2007 to 2008

2008 to 2009

InternationalState-to-State

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009

7

Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity

Net domesti

c migr

ation

International

migrati

onTotal

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

44%24% 33%

28%50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5%18% 12%

OtherBlackHispanicWhite

67% of all migrants

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

8

Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

9

Legend0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

His-panic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

11

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

1,200,000 800,000 400,000 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000

Anglo Male Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Anlgo Female Hispanic Female

Black Female Other Female

Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009

12

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

800000 400000 0 400000 800000

Anglo Male Anlgo Female

Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

800000 400000 0 400000 800000

Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Hispanic Female Black FemaleOther Female

13

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2009

<5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65+

34.237.5 38.1 38.5 39.6 38.2 37.2

40.744.7

51.356.1

59.262.9

68.3

50.846.9

44.8 43.9 43.546.2 47.3

42.237.5

31.427.1

24.822.8

19.7

Anglo Hispanic

14

Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009

Non-Hispanic WhiteHispanic

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

8%43%

25%

25%33%

21%34%

11%

Bachelor's degree or higherSome college or as-sociate's degreeHigh school graduate, GED, or alternativeLess than high school diploma

Source: American Community Survey, 2009

15

Total Population by County, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts

Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10

82 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,001

100,001 - 500,001

500,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 4,100,000

16

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

17

Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010

Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010

-20%-0%

1%-10%

10.1-25%

25.1%-50%

50.1%-82%

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

18Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Year

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

19

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

AngloBlackHispanicOther

Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040

2040 PopulationP_40

36 - 1000

1001 - 10000

10001 - 50000

50001 - 100000

100001 - 500000

500001 - 1000000

1000001 - 8000000

Projected population by county, Texas, 2040

Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007).

Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040

$18,000-30,000

$ 30,000-35,000

$ 35,000-40,000

$40,000-50,000

$ 50,000-76,000

Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

5-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-55%

24

Texas Business-Cycle Index

25

Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Growth

26

Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate

27

Median Income by Age in the United States, 2009

15 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over

$29,893

$50,312

$65,196

$75,707$71,650

$43,702

28

Numbers of Texas Inmigrants and Outmigrants Age 25 Years or Older by Educational Attainment, 2009

Less than 9th

9-12, No DiplomaHigh School

Some College

Associates Degree

Bachelors Degree

Advanced Degree -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

30,743 31,720

79,490

70,981

19,675

68,012

43,181

6,568

13,746

42,587 41,645

12,303

35,445

24,790

Foreign and Domestic Inmigrants Domestic Outmigrants

29

Average Texas Annual Occupational Earnings in Constant 2006 Dollars by Preferred Education for Employed Persons by Standard Occupational

Classification, 1997 & 2006

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$26,711.06 $35,191.32

$57,200.11 $68,567.08

$27,081.67 $38,670.68

$65,641.10

$87,692.27

1997 2006

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor Occupational Statistics Survey (OES), 1997 and 2006; and, Labor Market and Career Information, Texas Workforce Commission, Occupational Wages and Projections, 2006-2016

30

Texas employment by industrial sector, 2008

Utilities

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting

Management of Companies & Enterprises

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Information

Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction

Other Services Ex Government

Transportation & Warehousing

Finance & Insurance

Wholesale Trade

Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services

Administrative & Waste Services

Government

Construction

Accommodation & Food Services

Manufacturing

Educational Services, Public & Private

Retail Trade

Health Care & Social Assistance

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com

31

Projected percent employment growth by industry in Texas between, 2008-2018

Manufacturing

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting

Information

Wholesale Trade

Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Transportation & Warehousing

Retail Trade

Finance & Insurance

Utilities

Other Services Ex Government

Government

Administrative & Waste Services

Construction

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation

Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services

Management of Companies & Enterprises

Accommodation & Food Services

Educational Services, Public & Private

Health Care & Social Assistance

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

-1.6%

1.7%

7.8%

8.5%

10.2%

11.6%

11.7%

11.9%

13.0%

13.2%

15.8%

17.2%

17.9%

19.2%

21.1%

22.7%

24.1%

24.2%

29.5%

31.2%

17.0%


32

Legal OccupationsLife, Physical, & Social Science OccupationsCommunity & Social Services Occupations

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media OccupationsFarming, Fishing, & Forestry OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering Occupations

Protective Service OccupationsComputer & Mathematical Occupations

Healthcare Support OccupationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations

Personal Care & Service OccupationsInstallation, Maintenance, & Repair Occupations

Business & Financial Operations OccupationsHealthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations

Construction & Extraction OccupationsProduction Occupations

Education, Training, & Library OccupationsTransportation & Material Moving Occupations

Management OccupationsFood Preparation & Serving Related Occupations

Sales & Related OccupationsOffice & Administrative Support Occupations

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Texas employment by occupation, 2008


33

Total, All OccupationsProduction Occupations

Management OccupationsTransportation & Material Moving Occupations

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry OccupationsSales & Related Occupations

Office & Administrative Support OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering Occupations

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair OccupationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations

Construction & Extraction OccupationsLegal Occupations

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media OccupationsComputer & Mathematical Occupations

Life, Physical, & Social Science OccupationsProtective Service Occupations

Business & Financial Operations OccupationsCommunity & Social Services Occupations

Food Preparation & Serving Related OccupationsPersonal Care & Service Occupations

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical OccupationsEducation, Training, & Library Occupations

Healthcare Support Occupations

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

17.0%3.7%

8.7%8.8%

10.1%12.5%

13.4%14.0%

14.8%15.4%16.0%16.1%

17.3%19.5%

20.9%21.2%21.6%21.6%

25.6%26.9%

28.8%31.9%

36.5%

Projected percent employment growth by occupation in Texas between, 2008-2018


Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

53.1%

11.6%32.0%

3.3%

61.4%

11.4% 24.2%

3.0%

58.4%

10.7% 27.5%

3.4%

24.2%7.9%

59.1%

8.8%

29.0%9.0%

52.8%

9.2%

25.2%7.9%

58.7%

8.2%

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 Population

2040 Population

2000 Householders

2040 Householders

2000 Civilian Labor Force

2040 Civilian Labor Force

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040


18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040

Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040*(in 2000 Dollars)


$54,441

$52,639

$50,903

$49,326$47,883

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

$251

$621

$765

$938

$210

$528$629

$752

2000Base Values

2040 Assuming2000 Attainment

Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Trends

Apply to all Groups

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Billions

Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures

38

Summary

39

Conclusions

1.Population growth has been a part of Texas’ history.2.Population and economic trends favor a continuing

expansion of the Texas labor force.3.Higher education levels bring more earnings and greater

opportunities.4.There continue to be significant gaps between the

educational attainment levels of Anglos and non-Anglos.5.We don’t know whether this trend will persist in the future.

But for those of us who believe that an educated workforce is a key to Texas’ future, it should be a cause for concern.

25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)

Demographic Highlights TEXAS is:

big. The population of Texas is the second largest in the United States, exceeding 25 million people in 2010.7

young. Approximately 28% of Texas’ population is under 18 and only 10% of the population is older than 65 years.1

Webb County in Texas, has the youngest population in the U.S. with children younger than 5 comprising 12.8% of the population.8

embracing of culture and diversity. Approximately 9 million or 38% of Texans are of Hispanic descent, 2.8 million or

12% are African Americans, and 1 million or 4% are other (non-Anglo mainly of Asian descent).1 In about a decade, it is expected that Texas’ population will have more persons of Hispanic descent than any other racial or ethnic group.4

a desired place to live and work. Net in-migration to Texas accounts for almost half of the population growth in

recent years.1 More than 171,900 college graduates moved into Texas each year between 2006 and 2008, placing Texas as 2nd in the Nation by this measure.

urban. Texas has three of the top 10 largest cities in the Nation.3 Several of the metropolitan areas in Texas are among the most rapidly growing in the Nation.5

Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections;

5. U.S. Census Bureau, Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

40

25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)

Demographic Highlights TEXAS is:

rural. Texas is the second largest state in the Nation in terms of square miles (268,601) and approximately 17% of the population lives in rural areas.1

a working state. Texas has a civilian labor force of more than twelve million workers and an unemployment rate lower than in most States.6

family oriented. Texas ranks 3rd among states for the percent of households which are married-couple families with children (24.4%).2

multigenerational. Texas ranks 3rd among states for percent of households which are multigenerational (4.5%).2 growing – fast. Texas gained more population than any other state in the last estimate year (between 2000 and

2010), adding 4,293,741 people.7 Among cities over 100,000 population in the U.S., 4 of the 10 fastest growing areas are in Texas (2007-2008 change).7

41Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau, Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

42

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Changing Demographics in Texas