Enrollment Projection Fall 2017 Update for the …...Enrollment Projection Fall 2017 Update for the Princeton Public School District 25 Valley Road Princeton, NJ 08540 January 6, 2018

Enrollment Projection Fall 2017 Update

for the Princeton Public School District

25 Valley Road Princeton, NJ 08540

January 6, 2018

Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Court

Cherry Hill, NJ 08034-1701

Tel 856-755-0174 Fax 856-755-0176

E-mail: [email protected]

SUNDANCE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~SUNDANCE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~

Prepared by

Princeton School District Fall 2017 Enrollment Update SUNDANCE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~SUNDANCE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~

TABLE of CONTENTS Page

Princeton Survival Ratios by Grade Level 1

New Housing and Students Schedule 2

District-wide Enrollment Projection 3

Elementary level Enrollment Projections 4

Middle School Enrollment Projections 5

High School Enrollment Projections 6

Community Park ES Enrollment Projections 7

Johnson Park ES Enrollment Projections 8

Littlebrook ES Enrollment Projections 9

Riverside ES Enrollment Projections 10

Princeton Schools: 6-Year History of 5 Survival Rates by Grade

Historic S/Rs below 1.0

0.945 Historic S/Rs above 1.0

Standard 6-Year Average S/R

1.062

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

K:1 Survival Rate

1.082

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

1:2 Survival Rate

.990

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

2:3 Survival Rate

1.062

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

3:4 Survival Rate

1.037

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

4:5 Survival Rate

0.700.800.901.001.101.201.30

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18StdAvg

B:K Survival Rate .945

1.088

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

6:7 Survival Rate

1.051

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

7:8 Survival Rate

1.201

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

8:9 Survival Rate

1.023

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

9:10 Survival Rate

1.001

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

10:11 Survival Rate

.978

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

11:12 Survival Rate

1.065

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 StdAvg

5:6 Survival Rate

1.080 All Survival Rates used in the study are the average of 5 Grade to Grade S/R's from 6 years of enrollment data except the Birth to Kindergarten S/R which is the average of the most recent 3 years of B:K S/Rs.

__________________________________ Princeton School District

________________________________ Fall 2017 Enrollment Update 1

SUMMARY of PUBLIC SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN by SCHOOL

# of # Aff # of # of

Units Units SAC PSAC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2018>Original Building Permits Analysis 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 BalInst Adv Studies, PHA at Bunn Dr X 2 2 2 27 Littlebrook 31Stanworth Ph 2 58 Johnson Park 0Avalon Bay, Merwick Ph 1,PCH Maple & Frankin Terr 76 18 Community Park 18

4 60 60 Riverside 120664 212 186 139 0 2 27 18 60 60

Affordable Plan-Ph 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

# of # Aff # of # of 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Units Units SAC PSAC

1. S-2 Zoning 820 State Rd. 150 30 47.9 42.0 21 21 Littlebrook2. Princ Shop Ctr, 295 Harrison 50 10 16.0 14.0 14 Littlebrook3. Parking Lot, 261 Franklin Ave. 25 5 8.0 7.0 7 Community Park4. Unspecified, anywhere 220 55 70.2 61.6 31 31 District-wide

445 100 142 125 0 0 66 59

Affordable Plan-Ph 2Unspecified, 20 Year Balance 4000 1000Unspecified, 10 Year Balance 33%Butler Tract, speculative, Orig Rpt 350 70 136.7 120.0 60 60 Riverside 120Unspecified Phase 2 1052 263 335.6 294.6 23 23 83 83 83 District-wide 295

1402 333 638 415 83 83 83 83 83 415

10 Year Total 780 540 0 0 31 31 83 83 83 83 83 District-wide 477

31 31 23 23 83 83 83 District-wide7.8 7.8 5.8 5.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 divide by 4 schools

The same schedule of housing and resulting Public School Age Children (PSAC) that was developed in the 2016 study is used in this update study, except that housing units occupied in year 2017, and the resulting students, are NOT included in the overlay to the standard projection.

Adjustments to the standard projection include Projects that are approved or deemed probable by local authorities. That housing generates 107 students in the 5-year projection period and an additional 60 in the extended projection period.

An additional adjustment is made for the COAH Settlement for Affordable housing in the original 5 years that included 3 identified projects and 275 units in unknown project(s). They generated 125 PSAC in the 5-year projection period.

Finally, a Phase 2 of COAH housing was identified with 1700+ units that would generate 415 PSAC in the previous study'e 6th to 10th years, now the 5th to 9th years in this updated study.

Both Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the Affordable housing include unidentified units and PSAC. Those PSAC are divided evenly across the 4 Elementary School attendance areas and totals 477 students or about 9 per grade level (at the Middle and High Schools). Each Elementary School is impacted by 2 students per grade level.



315 (Projection) + 392 (Extended Projection) students from new housing are added to the two projection periods.

Period Period Change New COAH COAH

TOTAL Avg Change % Housing Ph 1 Ph 2Historic 2012 3,440

2013 3,3972014 3,5362015 3,535 35582016 3,6712017 3,769 329 9.6%

Projected 2018 3,785 02019 3,826 22020 3,985 3995 27 662021 4,080 18 592022 4,298 529 14.0% 60 83

Extended 2023 4,500 60 832024 4,650 832025 4,784 4719 832026 4,840 832027 4,820 522 11.6% 0

3769

4298

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

District Wide Enrollments PK-12

Historic

Projected

Extended



Princeton School DistrictElementary PK-Grade 5 Enrollments145 (Projection) + 181 (Extended Projection) students from new housing are added to the two projection periods. K-5 Period Period Change New COAH COAH

PK PK PKSE K 1 2 3 4 5 SCSE TOTAL Avg Change % Housing Ph 1 Ph 2Historic 2012 34 26 180 181 194 200 237 170 37 1,259 2012

2013 29 14 194 174 190 191 203 235 31 1,261 20132014 39 14 202 203 206 191 193 229 40 1,317 20142015 24 28 187 200 205 185 183 188 46 1,246 1,309 20152016 33 23 211 214 220 201 216 191 29 1,338 20162017 0 59 204 226 226 215 231 224 45 1,430 171 13.6% 2017

Projected 2018 0 61 199 217 244 224 228 239 39 1,4512019 0 60 212 211 234 242 238 237 39 1,474 12020 0 61 217 232 236 239 264 254 41 1,543 1,541 12 312021 0 61 217 236 257 239 260 280 42 1,592 8 282022 0 61 222 241 266 265 265 281 44 1,644 214 14.8% 28 38

Extended 2023 0 61 222 246 272 275 293 286 45 1,699 28 382024 0 61 217 242 273 275 298 310 46 1,721 382025 0 61 217 237 268 276 299 315 46 1,719 1,702 382026 0 61 217 237 263 272 300 316 46 1,710 382027 0 61 211 230 256 260 288 311 44 1,661 17 1.0%

1430

1644

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Elementary K-Gr 5 Enrollments

Historic

Projected

Extended

Cap=1424



Princeton School DistrictMiddle School Grade 6-8 Enrollments73 (Projection) + 90 (Extended Projection) students from new housing are added to the two projection periods. Gr 6-7 Period Period Change New COAH COAH 2,016.00 Cap=

5 6 7 8 SCSE TOTAL Avg Change % Housing Ph 1 Ph 2 final Historic ProjectedExtended Cap=626

Historic 2012 228 264 240 6 738 738 6262013 177 227 272 10 686 686 6262014 235 206 247 20 708 708 6262015 233 250 214 25 722 724 722 6262016 209 251 271 31 762 762 762 6262017 217 238 254 18 727 -11 -1.5% 741 727 626

Projected 2018 239 236 250 25 750 738 750 6262019 255 260 248 26 789 757 789 6262020 260 285 280 28 853 852 6 15 804 853 6262021 276 288 305 29 899 4 14 836 899 6262022 309 311 314 32 967 240 32.0% 14 19 867 967 626

Extended 2023 310 348 338 34 1,030 14 19 857 1030 6262024 311 344 372 35 1,061 19 826 1061 6262025 337 345 368 36 1,084 1087 19 825 1084 6262026 342 373 369 37 1,120 19 894 1120 6262027 337 373 392 37 1,138 172 16.7% 0 1138 626

727

967

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Middle School Gr 6-8 Enrollments

Historic

Projected

Extended

Cap=626



Princeton School District Recent peak enrollment is 1,571 in 2016-17

High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments97 (Projection) + 121 (Extended Projection) students from new housing are added to the two projection periods. Gr 9-12 Period Period Change New COAH COAH 2016

9 10 11 12 SCSE TOTAL Avg Change % Housing Ph 1 Ph 2 Final Historic Projected

Historic 2012 373 365 346 341 18 1,443 2012 14432013 375 376 360 330 9 1,450 2013 14502014 397 375 373 350 16 1,511 2014 15112015 393 412 379 364 19 1,567 1526 2015 15672016 356 409 417 376 13 1,571 1571 2016 15712017 413 366 410 415 8 1,612 169 11.7% 1651 2017 1612

Projected 2018 385 422 366 401 10 1,585 1655 2018 15852019 377 394 423 358 10 1,562 1 1630 2019 15622020 364 393 401 421 11 1,589 1602 8 20 1628 2020 15892021 403 378 399 398 11 1,589 6 18 1626 2021 15892022 462 423 389 401 11 1,687 75 4.7% 18 26 1648 2022 1687

Extended 2023 451 484 434 391 12 1,772 18 26 1676 20232024 466 467 490 431 12 1,867 25 1777 20242025 524 483 474 486 13 1,980 1930 26 1825 20252026 494 543 490 470 13 2,009 25 1763 20262027 480 505 543 479 13 2,020 333 18.8% 2027

33 18 5118 102 120

16121687

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

High School Gr 9-12 Enrollments

Historic

Projected

Extended

Cap=1423



Students + Unassigned

Community Park Elementary 7 childreRecent peak enrollment was 397 in 2004-05 across 13 Grades

21 (Projected) and 31 (Ext Projection) students from new housing to this school Period Period Change New COAH COAH PKSE PK K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5 SE TOTAL Avg Change % Housing Ph 1 Ph 2Historic 2012 0 0 40 54 50 59 46 40 1 290

2013 0 0 52 37 53 49 59 50 0 3002014 0 1 52 56 48 45 52 68 2 3242015 4 0 53 58 61 45 48 51 3 323 3302016 8 0 72 63 60 57 55 49 3 367 2017 6 0 59 72 61 58 63 57 1 377 87 30.0%

Projected 2018 6 0 64 64 77 59 63 66 2 4022019 6 0 68 69 68 74 64 67 2 4192020 6 0 67 73 75 66 82 68 2 441 442 82021 6 0 70 75 81 75 75 89 3 473 18 152022 6 0 68 76 81 79 82 80 3 473 96 23.9% 6

Extended 2023 6 0 68 73 82 78 86 87 3 483 62024 6 0 69 74 80 80 87 93 3 494 212025 6 0 69 76 82 79 89 94 3 498 494 212026 6 0 69 76 83 80 88 96 3 501 212027 6 0 67 74 81 80 87 93 3 491 18 3.7%

473

377

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Community Park ES Enrollment by Year

Historic

Projected

Extended

Cap=384




Johnson Park Elementary School across 13 Grades

10 (Projected) and 31 (Ext Projection) students from new housing to this school Period Period Change New COAH COAH PK PKSE K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5 SETOTAL Avg Change % Housing Ph 1 Ph 2Historic 2012 17 6 47 42 51 50 75 45 18 351

2013 15 3 47 44 42 48 52 65 22 3382014 20 6 50 53 52 47 48 60 19 3552015 14 12 43 50 54 51 45 49 26 344 3562016 15 8 37 52 64 53 60 51 17 357 2017 0 28 47 41 59 65 63 64 23 390 39 11.1%

Projected 2018 0 29 40 53 46 61 70 66 20 3852019 0 29 42 45 59 48 66 73 20 3822020 0 29 42 48 52 62 52 69 20 373 378 82021 0 29 42 48 54 54 67 55 19 369 82022 0 29 42 48 54 57 59 71 20 379 -11 -2.7% 6

Extended 2023 0 29 42 48 54 57 61 62 20 373 62024 0 29 43 49 55 58 63 66 20 384 212025 0 29 43 50 57 59 64 67 20 391 387 212026 0 29 43 50 58 60 65 69 20 396 212027 0 29 42 49 57 60 65 68 20 389 9 2.5%

390 379

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Johnson Park ES Enrollment by Year

Historic

Projected

Extended

Cap=393




Littlebrook Elementary School Recent peak enrollment was 373 in 2005-06 across 13 Grades

49 (Projected) and 31 (Ext Projection) students from new housing to this school Period Period Change New COAH COAH PK PK SE K 1 2 3 4 5 K5 SE TOTAL Avg Change % Housing Ph 1 Ph 2Historic 2012 1 11 49 49 59 51 72 51 5 348

2013 1 2 53 50 50 63 54 73 0 3462014 0 0 58 52 58 56 63 61 4 3522015 2 0 57 55 47 50 53 62 1 327 3272016 0 0 46 59 54 46 59 57 1 3222017 0 0 50 62 66 57 61 63 0 359 11 3.2%

Projected 2018 0 0 48 54 65 68 63 65 0 3632019 0 0 51 52 56 67 76 67 0 369 22020 0 0 55 60 60 64 79 85 0 404 404 27 432021 0 0 52 62 65 64 73 86 0 402 292022 0 0 51 57 65 67 71 77 0 389 30 8.2% 6

Extended 2023 0 0 51 55 60 68 75 76 0 384 62024 0 0 52 56 59 63 76 81 0 390 212025 0 0 52 58 60 63 72 82 0 388 388 212026 0 0 52 58 62 64 71 78 0 385 212027 0 0 50 56 60 64 71 75 0 376 -13 -3.5%

359389

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Littlebrook ES Enrollment by Year

Historic

Projected

Extended

Cap=341




Riverside Elementary School Recent peak enrollment was 341 in 2007-08 across 13 Grades

65 (Projected) and 87 (Ext Projection) students from new housing to this school Period Period Change New COAH COAH PK PK SE K 1 2 3 4 5 K5 SE TOTAL Avg Change % Housing Ph 1 Ph 2Historic 2012 16 9 44 36 34 40 44 34 13 270

2013 13 9 42 43 45 31 38 47 9 277 2014 18 8 42 42 48 43 30 40 15 2862015 8 12 34 37 43 39 37 26 16 252 2522016 18 7 56 40 42 45 42 34 8 2922017 0 25 48 51 40 35 44 40 21 304 34 12.6%

Projected 2018 0 26 44 48 56 37 34 43 15 3022019 0 26 46 44 53 52 36 33 15 3042020 0 26 46 46 49 49 51 35 16 318 318 82021 0 26 46 46 52 46 48 50 16 331 82022 0 26 55 56 61 58 54 57 16 382 78 25.7% 60 66

Extended 2023 0 26 55 65 71 66 65 62 16 426 60 662024 0 26 47 57 73 67 65 65 16 418 212025 0 26 47 49 64 69 67 65 16 404 404 212026 0 26 47 49 55 61 69 67 16 390 212027 0 26 46 47 54 51 59 67 16 365 -17 -4.0%

382

304

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Riverside ES Enrollment by Year

Historic

Projected

Extended

Cap=306



Documents

Enrollment Projection Fall 2017 Update for the …...Enrollment Projection Fall 2017 Update for the Princeton Public School District 25 Valley Road Princeton, NJ 08540 January 6, 2018