Enrollment Projection Study UpdateCharles Kofron, Ph.D. LLC

August 19, 2019

OVERVIEW• Scope of Work• Findings• Data and Methods

– District geography– Birth record processing and results– District births and K enrollments and projections– Attendance area births and K enrollments and projections– Student record geocoding and processing

• Projection Method• Projection Results

– Total District resident enrollments and projections– Elementary District resident enrollments and projections– Middle School District resident enrollments and projections– High School District resident enrollments and projections

• Summary• Recommendations

SCOPE OF WORK• Obtain current (2019) geographic information system (GIS) base data

from the St. Louis County GIS Service Center• Obtain and geocode 2 years of student records (from September 30, 2018,

and 2019*) and build out class cohorts using District attendance areas – Overlay student locations on attendance area data and summarize residential

counts by attendance area, grade, and school year– 2019 student record data will be processed and added as an Addendum to this

report as these data become available (probably in October 2019)• Obtain, code to Kindergarten year of eligibility, geocode, and summarize

2 years of live birth data (from calendar years 2017 and 2018)– Overlay birth locations on attendance areas and summarize by Kindergarten

cohort year and attendance area– Birth data used to project in-District Kindergarten class sizes by attendance

areas • Develop K-12 cohort survival enrollment projections by attendance area

for a 5-year projection time period (2019-2024)– Enrollment projection model will include 5 series of school enrollment

projections based on residence as developed in benchmark study• Provide a summary report

FINDINGS

• Positive Enrollment Projection Profile Continues– Expect In-District enrollments to increase by 13% by 2024-

25• Elementary enrollments will continue to increase by 234 (5-Year

Average projection scenario) or more students by 2024 or 9% over the next 5 years

• Middle school enrollment will increase by 114 (Snapshot projection scenario) students or approximately 9% over the next 5 years

• High school enrollments will increase by 184 (Snapshot projection scenario) or 11% over the next 5 years

– Births hit a 14-year high for the 2020-21 Kindergarten cohort but have declined in the following 2 years• The District birth trend increased in Kindergarten cohort size

for the 2023-24 school year; however, birth projections for the remainder of the 2024-25 school year indicate smaller Kindergarten classes

DATA AND METHODS• Replicate Data Processing and Projection Methodology Developed in

Benchmark Study (2015)• Kirkwood R7 Base Data

– Student Records• Add Fall enrollments from September 30, 2018-19 to 2008-2017 base counts

– Geocode resident student records, overlay on attendance areas, and develop counts by grade and attendance area

– Exclude data outside of District» VICC, Normandy/Riverview Gardens, and other students attending from outside of

the District– Birth Records

• Add live birth addresses from 2017-2018 to 2004-2016 base counts– Assign births from 2017 and 2018 to complete 2022 and 2023 Kindergarten cohorts– Use remainder of 2018 births to project a full year of births for the 2024 Kindergarten cohort– Geocode live birth addresses, overlay on attendance areas, and develop counts for

Kindergarten cohort years

• Projection Method– Cohort Survival

• Births to Kindergarten cohorts by attendance area• K-12 resident student class cohorts by grade and attendance area

PROJECTION METHOD• Cohort Survival

– Assemble births and enrollments by cohort or class– Calculate ratios of students “surviving” to the next grade– Weighted ratio averaging

• Using the last 5 years of ratios by grade, average the 3 higher, mid, and lower ratios

– Averaging last 5 years of CSRs• 5YrAve series

– No averaging• Snapshot series

– Apply ratios to birth totals to generate Kindergarten projections– Apply grade-specific ratios to grade-specific enrollment counts to

generate projections for grades 1-12– For Kindergarten projections, use birth counts for future

Kindergarten classes to project enrollments

DISTRICT GEOGRAPHY

BIRTH RECORDPROCESSING

BIRTH PROCESSING RESULTS

Total Birth Records, 2017-2018: 3,510Total Births Found Within District: 945

Attendance Area 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009Keysor 58 79 94 108 111 94 83 97 89 68 88 68 80 89 83 84NGlendale 86 112 94 97 96 94 86 99 99 107 91 106 124 111 106 130Robinson 72 91 97 90 94 93 90 82 99 78 79 79 68 96 78 75Tillman-Nipher 41 34 44 47 43 49 40 50 43 45 35 43 42 51 43 57Tillman-North 60 50 45 47 58 51 44 48 51 35 49 42 43 38 39 55Tillman Total 101 84 89 94 101 100 84 98 94 80 84 85 85 89 82 112Westchester 106 117 91 88 104 80 90 85 86 80 85 79 75 82 87 72Totals 423 483 465 477 506 461 433 461 467 413 427 417 432 467 436 473

BIRTH DENSITIES

DISTRICT BIRTH TRENDS

473

436

467

432

417

427

413

467461

433

461

506

477

465

483

423

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

20192020

20212022

20232024

District Births

BIRTHS AND K ENROLLMENTS AND PROJECTIONS

344 340

352360

383 386 384

402

416

428 425

467

441429

444

387

473

436

467

432

417427

413

467461

433

461

506

477465

483

423

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Mid 5yrAve Snapshot Births

Actual Kindergarten Enrollments Kindergarten Projections

STUDENT RECORD GEOCODING

STUDENT RECORD PROCESSING RESULTS• K-12 Counts by

Unique Attendance Areas– Keysor– North Glendale– Robinson– Tillman Nipher– Tillman North–Westchester– District Rollup

Grade 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19Births 427 413 467 461 433

K 386 384 402 416 4281 402 391 401 429 4312 406 411 401 414 4253 405 419 419 430 4274 392 415 427 431 4375 400 411 421 440 4326 405 404 420 427 4347 376 424 411 426 4338 354 381 421 413 4189 389 381 393 436 42610 426 397 378 401 43911 397 418 399 387 40512 394 396 415 390 388

Total K-5 2391 2431 2471 2560 2580Total 6-8 1135 1209 1252 1266 1285Total 9-12 1606 1592 1585 1614 1658Total K-12 5132 5232 5308 5440 5523

TOTAL IN-DISTRICT ENROLLMENTS

4498

46564735

4882

50585132

52325308

54405523

7462

5224

6232

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

5600

5800

6000

6200

6400

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

7600

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

High Mid Low 5yrAve Snapshot

TOTAL IN-DISTRICT ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENTS

20222063

2098

2224

23452391

24312471

2560 2580

3353

2842

2371

2814

2991

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

High Mid Low 5yrAve Snapshot

TOTAL IN-DISTRICT MIDDLE SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS

1063

11091091 1091 1081

1135

12091252 1266

1285

1812

1232

1492

1399

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

High Mid Low 5yrAve Snapshot

TOTAL IN-DISTRICT HIGH SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS

1413

1484

15461567

16321606 1592 1585

16141658

2297

1912

1621

1944

1842

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

2250

2350

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

High Mid Low 5yrAve Snapshot

SUMMARY• Positive Enrollment Projection Profile Continues to 2024

– Mid, 5-Year Average, and Snapshot projection series converge, producing similar results• Convergence = Confidence

– Elementary projection trend lines begin to diverge in 2021• Snapshot projections show continued increase for 2023 but a leveling off in 2024• Mid and 5YrAve projections show possible downward trend in elementary enrollments in 2024

– Middle school enrollments will increase but at a slower rate• Mid and 5YrAve projection trend lines are indicating steady, increasing enrollments• Snapshot projections are showing increasing enrollments but fewer total students than the Mid and

5YrAve projections in 2024– High school enrollment projections are indicating steady enrollment increases

• Mid and 5YrAve projection scenarios are showing increases of 80 to 100 more students than the Snapshot projection series

– Births hit a 14-year high for the 2020-21 Kindergarten cohort, but fell back in later Kindergarten cohort years• Births declined in the 2021 and 2022 Kindergarten cohort years• Births increased from the 2022 to 2023 Kindergarte3n cohort years, but nowhere near the gain

shown between 2019 and 2020• 2024 Kindergarten cohort births based on extrapolation of 5-month trend are indicating a smaller

Kindergarten cohort and fewer enrollments– Expect In-District enrollments to increase by about 13% or 709 students

• Expect elementary enrollments to increase from 234 to 411 students by 2024• Middle school enrollments will increase from 114 to 207 students between 2018 and 2024• Expect high school enrollments to increase from 184 to 286 students between 2018 and 2024

SUMMARY• Expect Keysor total resident enrollments to increase by about 100

students between 2018 and 2023, but enrollments will fall back by about 40 students between 2023 and 2024– The Snapshot projection (based on the latest succeeding year enrollments) is

showing a much high gain in enrollments• North Glendale resident enrollments will continue to stay about the

same and increase by a class size between 2021 and 2023; however projections based on succeeding year enrollments show a sharper gain in enrollments between 2021 and 2024

• Notable enrollment increases are expected in Robinson between 2018 and 2020; enrollments after 2020 will stay about the same– However, the snapshot projection scenario is showing a decline in total enrollments

between 2018 and 2024• Like Robinson, Tillman enrollments are expected to increase between

2018 and 2021 and remain steady through 2024; however, the Snapshot projection scenario based on succeeding year enrollments is indicating a decline in total enrollments

• Westchester enrollments are expected to increase steadily over the next 5 years with total enrollments in 2024 around 585 students

SUMMARY• Nipher middle school enrollments will increase by 50

students in 2019 and will remain between 650 and 700 students through 2024– However, the Snapshot projection series is indicating

declining enrollments between 2019 and 2024 and this series is tracking closer to the Low projection scenario

• North middle school enrollments will start an upward climb in 2020 and continue to increase through 2024 when it is expected that enrollments totals will be between 788 and 800 students

• Kirkwood senior high school enrollments will continue to increase steadily with expected gains of between 184 and 286 students in 2024

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Keep resident student counts by attendance area current with fall (September 30) enrollments

• Keep resident birth data by attendance area current using data obtained through MoDHSS

• Evaluate projections with comparisons to actual enrollment counts (will do for 2019 enrollments)

• Incorporate District land use and improvements (housing data) using local data sources

• Incorporate independent demographic estimates and projections into the planning process

QUESTIONS