Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Long Term Study Transmission Results. Objectives:. ERCOT and ERCOT stakeholders, with the support of a Department of Energy Grant, improved and expanded the existing Long Term Study (LTS) processes. Specifically, the Transmission Analysis component of the LTS seeks to: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Long Term Study Transmission Results
May 21st, 2013
2
Objectives:
ERCOT and ERCOT stakeholders, with the support of a Department of Energy Grant, improved and expanded the existing Long Term Study (LTS) processes. Specifically, the Transmission Analysis component of the LTS seeks to:
•Create a repeatable process to identify intra-regional system needs for both reliability and economic efficiency.
•Study a full spectrum of scenarios to identify similar and contrasting transmission system needs to facilitate various resource portfolios.
•Inform shorter-term study horizons with “least regrets” solutions as study assumptions become more certain.
•Procure and customize a tool to identify ancillary service needs for increasing amounts of non-traditional resources.
May 21, 2013
3
Agenda
• Process Review
• Scenario Selection – Transmission Analysis
• Base Case Development
• Reliability Import Expansion Analysis
• Base Case Overloads
• Economic Themes / Observed Congestion
• Major Findings
• Integrating Renewable Energy / KERMIT Analysis
May 21, 2013
4May 21, 2013
Process Review
5
Selected Cases for Transmission Analysis
ERCOT chose to perform a full transmission analysis for each scenario that modified a resource build, load, or dispatch cost enough to modify transmission system needs.
May 21, 2013
6
Scenario Selection - Wind
May 21, 2013
CompleteIn ProgressOmitted from Trans Analysis
7
Scenario Selection - Load
May 21, 2013
8
Scenario Selection – Resource Sites (2032)
May 21, 2013
Business as usual Business as Usual / Retirements
9
Scenario Selection – Resource Sites (2032)
May 21, 2013
Business as Usual‘All Technologies’ / Updated Wind
Business as Usual – HighNat Gas Price
10
Scenario Selection - Resource Sites (2032)
May 21, 2013
Drought – No PTC or emission costs
Drought – No PTC, emission costs, low gas price
11
Resource Sites (2032)
May 21, 2013
Drought – PTC, Water Costs, Emissions cost
12
Base Case Reliability Upgrades (2032)
May 21, 2013
13
Transformer Base Case Reliability Upgrades: 2022
May 13th 2013
14May 13th 2013
Transformer Base Case Reliability Upgrades: 2032
15
Economic Studies
Each economic project selected for analysis targeted scenario-specific opportunities for production cost savings. Reoccurring themes included:
May 21, 2013
Expanded imports into Houston
Expanded imports into Dallas Expanded connectivity to the San Antonio 345kV ring
16
Economic Studies Continued
Each economic project selected for analysis targeted scenario-specific opportunities for production cost savings. Reoccurring themes included:
May 21, 2013
Expanded connectivity to the Texas Panhandle
Expanded Access to Coastal Wind
17
Major Findings: Retirements
The retirement of legacy gas-fired resources within ERCOT’s urban load centers:•Greatly increases the need for reliability upgrades in and around urban load centers
•Accelerates the need for new import paths (most notably in Houston; a new import is required within the ten-year study horizon)
•Creates economic opportunities in Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio for transmission expansion.
May 21, 2013
18
Major Findings: Beyond 345kV
Expanding the ERCOT system beyond 345kV was cost-effective for select scenarios. If high gas prices and/or continuation of the production tax credit for wind persist, then 500kV solutions are cost-effective for the delivery of concentrated renewable energy to major load centers. Select Drought Scenarios yielded similar results.
May 21, 2013
19
Major Findings: Extended Drought / Extreme Load
Increased system loading coupled with water availability issues threatened the economic viability of existing and potential future thermal units. The net effect accelerated the need and quantity of expanded imports into Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio.
May 21, 2013
20May 13th 2013
Major Findings: Extended Drought / Extreme Load
21
Note: If municipal utilities operating in a vertically integrated structure repower or expand existing urban resources, then transmission import needs will be largely offset.
May 13th 2013
Major Findings: Extended Drought / Extreme Load
22
Major Findings: Beyond CREZ
Wind-dominated resource expansion scenarios sited wind in the Texas panhandle beyond the current design capacity of the CREZ System.
May 21, 2013
23
Major Findings: Beyond CREZ
Multiple scenarios in the Long Term Study suggested that expansive wind development in the Texas Panhandle may threaten steady state stability under certain conditions. Based upon this assessment, the ERCOT Dynamic Studies performed a detailed assessment of LTS findings.
If wind development in the Texas Panhandle is comparable or higher than what was modeled in the LTS, then additional exports from the region are needed for steady-state stability. Numerous projects return production cost savings commensurate with their costs for high gas price and environmental scenarios.
May 21, 2013
24
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT analysis
ERCOT procured a time-series simulation model to assess the adequacy of ancillary services needed to balance portfolios with increasing proportions of renewables.
May 21, 2013
25
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Analysis
DNV KEMA’s KERMIT model was modified to represent the ERCOT market, complete with existing and probable future resources.
May 21, 2013
26
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study
Increased wind penetration and diversity of wind sites decreased the frequency of small magnitude net load ramps on a five-minute basis.
May 21, 2013
27
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study
May 21, 2013
Increased wind penetration greatly increased the magnitude and frequency of 15-min net load ramps
28
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study
May 21, 2013
Seldom-occurring high-magnitude net load ramps required a significant increase in seasonal deployment of quick-start / non-spin capacity.
29
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Observations
With increasing penetration of wind;•Large magnitude ramps occurred more frequently.
•Small magnitude ramps occurred less frequently.
Based upon these observations, ERCOT modeled new ancillary products with complementary ramping characteristics. These products: •Represent online resources or resources with zero-startup time•Include only resources capable of ramping to full load within 5 minutes, and• Are technology neutral.
May 13th 2013
30
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study: Scenario 3/8 Results
ERCOT calculated a portfolio of ancillaries to maintain equal or better than actual frequency performance.
May 21, 2013
Actual Reserves 2012
Initial KERMIT Run
Scenario 3 Scenario 8
Total Nameplate Renewables10 GW 10 GW 20 GW 50 GW
Min Max Max Max Max
Regulation Reserves240 940 600 600 600
Responsive Reserves (Gen) 1400 1400 1050 1050 1050
Responsive Reserves (Load) 1400 1400 1400 1400 1400
New 5-min product in SCED – – –
800 1300
Non Spin QS*470 2000
1650 1650 1650
Non Spin 30-min product ** – – –
Total 3510 5740 4700 5500 6000
* 15-min product – 5-min start, 10-min ramp ** Cold Start
31
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study: 20 GW Results
May 21, 2013
32
Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study: 50 GW Results
May 21, 2013
33
Review:
ERCOT and ERCOT Stakeholders developed a repeatable process to determine:
•Reliability-driven transmission system upgrades and economic alternatives across a spectrum of probable resource builds.
• Document major findings for use in shorter-term study horizons as resource assumptions become more certain.
•Implement a tool and study framework for identifying complementary ancillary service needs for increasing proportions of non-traditional resources
May 21, 2013
