Market Briefing: Correlated Marketsptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/intermktcorrel.pdf · September 25, 2017 / Market Briefing: Correlated Markets Yardeni Research, Inc. Industrial & Transportation

Market Briefing:Correlated Markets

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 25, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

September 25, 2017 / Market Briefing: Correlated Markets www.yardeni.com


Industrial & Transportation Stock Prices 1S&P 500 & Commodity Prices 2S&P 500, Oil, & the Dollar 3Commodity Prices & the Dollar 4Commodity Prices & Currencies 5Copper, Oil, & the Dollar 6EM-MSCI 7EM-MSCIs, the Dollar, & Commodity Prices 8-9China Stock Market & Commodities 10Asian Stock Markets 11-12S&P 500 Sectors 13S&P 500 Industries 14Bank Stocks 15Technology Heavy Stock Markets 16Commodity Heavy Stock Markets 17Capital Goods Heavy Stock Markets 18S&P 500 Indices: MEI, CUT 19Misc 20CRB & Copper 21Russia Price Index & Crude Oil Price 22Expected Inflation & CRB Raw Industrials Index 23

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

9/25DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES(ratio scale)

Industrials (DJIA)

Transportation (DJTA)

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

800

1050

1300

1550

1800

2050

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

3550

9/25S&P 500 STOCK INDEXES(ratio scale)

Industrials Composite*

Transportation Composite

* S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Industrial & Transportation Stock Prices

Page 1 / September 25, 2017 / Market Briefing: Correlated Markets www.yardeni.com


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

9/25

9/25S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

9/25

S&P 500 TRANSPORATION INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

S&P 500Transportation Index

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

S&P 500 & Commodity Prices



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201810

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

9/25

9/22

S&P 500 & CRUDE OIL PRICE

Brent Crude Oil Futures Price(dollars per barrel)

S&P 500 Index

* Nearby futures price.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018140

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

2250

2350

2450

25509/25

9/25

S&P 500 INDEX & US DOLLAR INDEX

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale)

S&P 500 Index

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan.Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

S&P 500, Oil, & the Dollar



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

300

400

500

600

700

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

9/25

9/25

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-45

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

-14

-16

-18

9/22

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(yearly percent change)


CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.

Commodity Prices & the Dollar



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018200

300

400

500

600

700

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

9/25

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & CANADIAN DOLLAR


Canada(C$/US$, inverted scale)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018200

300

400

500

600

700

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

9/25

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR


Australia(A$/US$, inverted scale)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.

Commodity Prices & Currencies



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

9/25

9/25

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER PRICE

Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)


* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures contract.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

9/25

9/22

BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR


Brent Crude Oil Futures Price*(dollars per barrel)

* Nearby futures price.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

Copper, Oil, & the Dollar



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

9/25

EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES

US dollars

Local currency

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

EM-MSCI



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

9/25

9/25EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX &TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR

Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(in local currencies)

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale)

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

500

1000

1500

0

50

100

150

9/22

9/25

EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(in dollars)


* Spot price through yearend 2014, then nearby futures price.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

EM-MSCIs, the Dollar, & Commodity Prices



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

500

1000

1500

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/25

9/25

EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars)& INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX(daily)



* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: MSCI and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

1

2

3

4

5

0

500

1000

1500

9/25

EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & COPPER PRICE


Copper Price(dollars per pound)

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

EM-MSCIs, the Dollar, & Commodity Prices



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100

200

300

400

500

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

9/25

9/25

CHINA: STOCK MARKET & COPPER PRICE

China MSCI Share Price Index(US dollars, December 31, 1992=100)

Copper Price*(cents per pound)

* Nearby futures contract.Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018300

400

500

600

700

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

9/25

9/25

CHINA MSCI & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

China MSCI Share Price Index(in dollars)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index(1967=100)

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

China Stock Market & Commodities



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20186000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

9/22

9/22

STOCK MARKETS(stock indexes in local currencies)

China: Shanghai-Shenzen 300(12/31/2004=1000)

Japan: NIKKEI(5/16/49=100)

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

9/22

9/22

STOCK MARKETS(stock indexes in local currencies) China: Shanghai-Shenzen 300

(12/31/2004=1000)

Austrailia: All Ordinaries(1/1/80=50)


yardeni.com

Figure 21.

Asian Stock Markets



96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

9/25

9/25

NIKKEI & YEN(stock index in local currency) Nikkei

Yen/US Dollar(inverted scale)


yardeni.com

Figure 22.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100

200

300

400

175

150

125

100

75

9/25

NIKKEI/DAX & YEN/EURO

Yen/Euro(inverted scale)

Nikkei/Dax

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

Asian Stock Markets



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201825

50

75

100

125

150

175

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

9/259/22

S&P 500 ENERGY & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

S&P 500 Energy Index(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)

Brent Crude Oil Futures Price*(dollars per barrel)

* Nearby futures price.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Financial Times.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

.22

9/25

9/25

S&P 500 MATERIALS & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

S&P 500 Materials Index(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)


* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

S&P 500 Sectors



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

26009/25

9/25

S&P 500 & S&P RETAILING

S&P 500 Retailing

S&P 500 Index

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

26009/25

9/25

S&P 500 INDEX & S&P 500 BANKS

S&P 500 Banks

S&P 500 Index


yardeni.com

Figure 27.

S&P 500 Industries



Figure 28.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201840

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

3209/25BANK STOCK PRICE INDEXES

United States: S&P 500 Bank Composite Index

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820

40

60

80

100

20

40

60

80

100

9/25

EUROPE(LCU)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820

30

40

50

60

70

80

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9/14

JAPAN(yen)

200-day moving average


yardeni.com

Bank Stocks



Figure 29.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19800

1600

2400

3200

4000

4800

5600

6400

7200

800

1600

2400

3200

4000

4800

5600

6400

7200

9/25NASDAQ

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

150

200

250

300

350

400

100

150

200

250

300

350

4009/25TAIWAN

(NT $)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

600

100

200

300

400

500

600

9/25

SINGAPORE(Singapore Dollars)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

150

200

250

300

350

400

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

9/25

ISRAEL(Shekels)



yardeni.com

Technology Heavy Stock Markets



Figure 30.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

9/25

AUSTRALIA(Australian dollars)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19500

1000

1500

2000

2500

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

9/25

CANADA(Canadian dollars)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920080014002000260032003800440050005600620068007400

200800

14002000260032003800440050005600620068007400

9/25INDONESIA(Rupiah)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

0

500

1000

15009/25SOUTH AFRICA

(Rand)



yardeni.com

Commodity Heavy Stock Markets



Figure 31.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

6509/25S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

500

1000

1500

0

500

1000

1500

9/25

GERMANY(Euros)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

300

400

500

600

700

800

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

9/25SOUTH KOREA(Won)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

5000

10000

15000

0

5000

10000

15000

9/25

SWEDEN(Kronor)

yardeni.com



Capital Goods Heavy Stock Markets



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

8/10

8/10

S&P 500 MEI (MATERIALS, ENERGY, & INDUSTRIALS) PRICE INDEX* &AVERAGE OF CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS AND BRENT CRUDE OIL

S&P 500 MEI*

YRI Global Growth Barometer**

* Cap weighted average of S&P 500 Materials, S&P 500 Energy, and S&P 500 Industrials price indices.** Average of CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index and price of a barrel of Brent crude oil futures (nearby futures).

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Financial Times, and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

9/25

S&P 500 CUT (CONSUMER STAPLES, UTILITIES & TELECOM SERVICES) PRICE INDEX*

* Cap weighted average of S&P 500 Consumer Staples, S&P 500 Utilities, and S&P 500 Telecommunication Services price indices.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

S&P 500 Indices: MEI, CUT



96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9/25

UNITED KINGDOM FTSE 100 & POUND

FTSE 100

US Dollar/Pound

Source: Reuters America, Inc. and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201850

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

9/25

S&P 500 INTEGRATED OIL & GAS vs. OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES

Integrated Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services


yardeni.com

Figure 35.

Misc



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100

200

300

400

500

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

9/25

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE

Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)


* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures contract.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.

CRB & Copper



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

50

100

150

0

500

1000

1500

2000

9/25

RUSSIA MSCI INDEX & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE


Russian MSCI Index(US dollars)

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Financial Times.

Figure 37.

Russia Price Index & Crude Oil Price



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

9/25

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & EXPECTED INFLATION

Expected Inflationin 10-Year TIPS*

CRB Raw Industrials Index

* Yield spread between 10-year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS.Source: Federal Reserve Board, US Treasury, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 38.

Expected Inflation & CRB Raw Industrials Index



http://blog.yardeni.com

http://blog.yardeni.com

[email protected]

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2017. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.

Documents

Market Briefing: Correlated Marketsptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/intermktcorrel.pdf · September 25, 2017 / Market Briefing: Correlated Markets Yardeni Research, Inc. Industrial & Transportation