Model Development at NCEP

Brad Ferrier1,2

1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC2 I.M. Systems Group, Inc. (IMSG)

(+ Geoff Manikin1, Geoff DiMego1, Eric Aligo1,2)

NCAR & FAA In-Flight Icing Users Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM)

25-26 February 2015UCAR Office

Washington, DC

Regional Hurricane

GFDLWRF-NMM

WRF ARW, NMMB,WRF NMM

Climate ForecastSystem (CFS)

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Operational Production Suite (2014)

GFS, MOM4,NOAH, Sea Ice

North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

GEFS, Canadian Global Model

Dispersion HYSPLIT

Air QualityCMAQ

RegionalNAM (NAMRR)

NMMB, Noah3D-V

AR

DA

Regional Bays• Great Lakes (POM)

• N Gulf of Mexico (FVCOM)• Columbia R. (SELFE)• Chesapeake (ROMS)

• Tampa (ROMS)• Delaware (ROMS)

SpaceWeather

ENLIL2

North American Land Surface Data Assimilation

System (NLDAS)Noah Land Surface Model

Global SpectralNoah

3D-E

n-Va

rDA

Global Forecast System (GFS)

3D-V

AR

DA

3D-V

AR

DA

WRF ARW

Rapid Refresh

3D-V

AR

DA

WavesWAVEWATCH III

Ocean HYCOM

Ecosystem EwE

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)21 GFS Members

ESTOFSADCIRC

SURGESLOSH

P-SURGESLOSH

WRF ARW3D-V

AR

DA

High Resolution RRNEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC)

GFS & GOCART

WRF ARW & NMMB

High Res Windows

(Systems in magenta will be discussed in this presentation)

NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 3

Road Map and Themes• Where we are and where do we want to go

– Short-range regional (mesoscale) modeling– Current & future global prediction systems

• Evolution over the next 5 years– From current “model of the day” thinking– To probabilistic guidance from ensemble systems

(Limited discussion on aircraft icing)

25-26 Feb 2015

Regional Systems (4/day)

• 12 km/60L to 84 h (SREF, 16 km/35-40L)• Nests (60L) to 60 h, except 1.33 km

fire weather to 36 h (relocatable)• 1-way nesting• Runs @ 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC

• NMMB & WRF ARW (40L) to 48 h• 00, 12 UTC - CONUS, Hawaii, Guam• 06, 18 UTC – AK, PR• Initialized from Rapid Refresh (RAP)

North American Mesoscale (NAM) High-Resolution Window (HRW) Runs

425-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing

Rapid Refresh Systems (24/day)

5

RAP

HRRR

• Developed at ESRL/GSD• WRF ARW model

13 km/50 L

3 km/50 L

12 km

3 km

3 km

3 km 3 km

• Being developed at NCEP/EMC• NEMS/NMMB model

NAMRR

RAP = Rapid RefreshHRRR = High-Resolution Rapid Refresh

NAMRR = NAM Rapid Refresh(to be implemented in Q1FY16)

• RAP - hourly to 18 h• HRRR –hourly to 15 h• LH T tendencies from radar data

• Similar to NAM at 00, 06, 12, 18Z• Hourly runs to 18 h at other times• LH T tendencies from radar data

25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing

+60 L (all domains)

Benefits of radar data assimilation

25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 6

0-hr anx3-kmradar

DA2013 HRRR

0-hr anxNo 3-km

radar DA

2012 HRRR

Obs23z

30 May 2012

From G. Manikin(NCEP HRRR Briefing)

Benefits of High-Res Models for Aviation

25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 7

07 June 2012 5 PM EDTReality

3-km HRRR Explicit

Convection 6 hr forecast

13-km RAP Parameterized

Convection 6 hr forecast

Aircraft mustNavigate AroundThunderstorms

No Storm Structure

No Estimate of Permeability

Accurate Storm Structure

Accurate Estimate of PermeabilityFrom G. Manikin

(NCEP HRRR Briefing)

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)

25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 8

(Sample 84-87 h QPF for all 26 members from the parallel SREF)

Ops vs Parallel SREF SystemsOperational SREF

• 16 km, 35 L -- 21 members• 3 dynamic cores / ICs

– NEMS/NMMB from NAM– WRF NMM from GFS– WRF ARW from RAP

• Limited physics diversity• Some clustering by core/IC

Parallel SREF (being tested)

• 16 km, 40 L -- 26 members• 2 dynamic cores / ICs

– NEMS/NMMB (ctl + 12 perts)– WRF ARW (ctl + 12 perts)– Even mix of NAM, GFS, RAP in

perts

• More physics diversity in NMMB & WRF ARW

• Reduced clustering by cores

25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 9

Both versions of SREF have• ICs: a mix of GEFS and regional perturbations• LBCs: from different GEFS (global ensemble) members

Future Plans: Combine All Systems

10

Longer-range guidance at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC• High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) = multiples of HRRR + NAMRR nests (60 h?)• Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) = multiples of RAP + NAM parent (84 h?)

Shorter-range guidance at more frequent intervals (≤ 1 h)• HREF Rapid Refresh (HREF-RR ) = HREF run at hourly intervals or less (18 h?)• SREF Rapid Refresh (SREF-RR) = SREF run at hourly intervals (24 h?)

25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing

RAP

HRRR

13 km

3 km

12 km

3 km

3 km

3 km 3 km

NAMRR

+ =

(? - forecastranges

are TBD)

Improved Aviation Products

25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 11

• Aircraft icing (see next slide)• Flight restrictions (with AWC)

• Cloud ceiling heights • Visibilities

• Low-level wind shear• Turbulence• Precipitation type

(rain, snow, freezing rain, sleet)• Simulated radar structures of severe

local storms (with SPC; see 2 slides later)• Mode (discrete cells vs lines)• Cellular structure (supercellular or not)• Evolution

Relocatable 1.33-km Fire WX Nests

(Next slide shows a N-S cross section of clouds &

precipitation from a recent winter storm)

Cross Section from 1.33-km Fire WX Nest

25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 12

>0°C

<0°C

(Fro

m Er

ic Al

igo)

CompositeReflectivity

• Rimed snow (2<RF<5)• Graupel (5<RF<20)• Sleet (RF>20)

(Temp)

NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 13

Old NAMMicrophysics

New Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics

Observed Reflectivity

>= 55 dBZ< 45 dBZ >= 55 dBZ

A BA B

A B A B A B

Improved Simulated Radar Reflectivity Structures of Severe Local Storms (NAM nests)

22 h Forecasts at 20 May 2013 - Moore, OK Tornado Outbreak

(From Eric Aligo)4-km NMMB Forecasts

Verti

cal C

ross

Sec

tions

A B

Hor

izon

tal M

aps

“W”

Weaker Storm Stronger Storm (Improved)

25-26 Feb 2015

14

NCEP Global Models• Recent Global Forecast System (GFS) upgrade

– ~13 km, 64 L, 0 to 10 days– ~33 km, 64 L, 11 to 16 days

• Upcoming Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) upgrade (~20 members)– ~27 km, 64 L, 0 to 8 days– ~33 km, 64L, 9 to 16 days

NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing

15

Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)

• Requirements– Provide skillful forecasts out to 30 days– Match the computational efficiency of the GFS– Include advanced data assimilation & physics– Be flexible to meet future demands

• Models under consideration– GFS Global Spectral Model (GSM @ NCEP)– Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model (NMM @ NCEP) – Non-hydrostatic Flow Following Icosahedral Model (NIM @ ESRL) – Cubed-Sphere Finite Volume (HiRAM @ GFDL)– Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS @ NCAR)– Navy’s Non-hydrostatic Unified Model (NEPTUNE @ NRL)

NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing

(Replace GFSIn 2019?)