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SOCAR Trading
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
11.11.2011
Angel Martinez
PRESENTATION HEG
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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1
1. Mon parcours professionnel
2. Organisation d’une trading company - Socar
3. La fixation du prix d’un brut et le shipping
4. Exemple d’un deal de crude oil
Sommaire
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Mon parcours professionnel
93-96 Apprentissage à la BCGE
96-97 Maturité Professionnelle Commerciale
97-98 Séjour linguistique à Oxford
99-02 HEG Genève – Eco. d’Entreprise à plein temps
98-99 BNP / HSBC - Dept Risk / Middle Office
03-04 Addax – Trading Accountant
05-06 Addax – Middle Office / Risk Management
07-09 Addax – Crude Oil Trader
10-… Socar – Crude Oil Trader
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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SOCAR Headquarters
1. UPSTREAM 2. DOWNSTREAM 3.TRADING
ORGANIZATION
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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TRADING
Vendre et optimiser notre production de bbls
= MARKETING
Devenir auto-suffisant à travers de
nouvelles affaires = TRADING
Trading Crude et Produits
NWE, Med, WAF, US, Asie
West Africa Market
• Stockage de crude • Processing
• Divers
Assister le Siège dans divers projets
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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2. La fixation du prix d’un brut
et le shipping
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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1. Point de vente
Marchés physiques : Rotterdam, Med, Golf et M.O.,
Extrême Orient, USA, Mer du Nord, West Afrique.
2. Prix de référence
Brent, référence mondiale
Dubai, Golf Persique, destination Asie
WTI, West Texas Intermediate, US Market
PRIX DU BRUT : PRIX DE REFERENCE +/- DIFFERENTIEL
La formation du prix d’un brut
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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3. Facteur temps
L’intervalle entre la date de chargement et la date où le prix est définitivement fixé.
4. Ajustement lié à la qualité…
L’indice de gravité API (20 – 60 degrés)
L'indice de gravité API est une échelle de valeurs arbitraire utilisée pour mesurer la densité du
pétrole brut. La mesure se fait en degrés API (° API). Plus un brut est léger (plus sa densité est
faible), plus son indice API est élevé.
API :
Moins de 22.3 = Heavy Crude
Entre 22.3 et 31.1 = Medium Crude
Plus de 31.1 = Light Crude
La formation du prix d’un brut
Exemple de prix : BRENT DATED -0.20$/bbl
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Le prix du marché (Dated -0.20$/bbl) est déterminé par l’Offre et le Demande
La demande L’offre
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Crude Oil Tanker
Panamax Crude Carrier: 55,000-79,999 dwt;
Aframax Crude Carrier: 80,000-119,000 dwt; (650’000 BBL)
Suezmax Crude Carrier: 120,000-199,999 dwt; (950’000 BBL)
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC): 200,000-319,999 dwt; (2 Mios BBL)
Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC): 320,000+ dwt.
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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New trading routes for tankers in 2000’s :
additional Tonne Miles
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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-50 000
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
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Tanker Freight Rates (TCE)
260,000 T Ras Tanura/Ulsan - TCE VLCC 260,000 T MEG/KOREA (TCE)US$/day
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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4. Exemple d'un deal de crude oil
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Block concessions
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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NIGERIAN CARGOS - DEC 2011 Qty Grade Dates Seller Buyer 1 Price Date Buyer 2 Price Date Co loading
Agbami
950 03-04 Statoil
950 07-08 Shell
950 11-12 Chevron
950 15-16 Chevron
950 19-20 Chevron
950 23-24 Statoil
950 27-28 Chevron
950 30-31 Chevron
Qty Qua Iboe
950 01-02 Exxon
950 03-04 NNPC
950 06-07 NNPC
950 08-09 Exxon
950 11-12 NNPC
950 13-14 Exxon
950 15-16 NNPC
950 18-19 NNPC
950 21-22 Exxon
950 23-24 NNPC
950 25-26 NNPC
950 27-28 NNPC
950 29-30 Exxon
Qty Batelle
950 22-23 HEG
11-15 Oct. 2011
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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NIGERIAN CARGOS - DEC 2011 Qty Grade Dates Seller Buyer 1 Price Date Buyer 2 Price Date Co loading
Agbami
950 03-04 Statoil Vitol Brent dtd + 0.60 22.10.2011
950 07-08 Shell Petrogal dtd + 0.45 ?? 25.10.2011
950 11-12 Chevron Vitol was indicated dtd +0.50
950 15-16 Chevron Petrobras dtd+0.55 27.10.2011
950 19-20 Chevron Petrobras dtd+0.60 29.10.2011
950 23-24 Statoil System
950 27-28 Chevron Statoil dtd+0.65 03.11.2011
950 30-31 Chevron indication : dtd+0.75 04.11.2011
Qty Qua Iboe
950 01-02 Exxon Vitol offer dtd+1.45 22.10.2011
950 03-04 NNPC Glencore
950 06-07 NNPC Glencore
950 08-09 Exxon Cepsa
950 11-12 NNPC Unipec
950 13-14 Exxon Shell dtd+1.53
950 15-16 NNPC Arcadia
950 18-19 NNPC Mercuria
950 21-22 Exxon Statoil
950 23-24 NNPC BP
950 25-26 NNPC Trafigura
950 27-28 NNPC Glencore
950 29-30 Exxon indication : dtd +1.70
Qty Batelle
950 22-23 HEG
18-29 Oct. 2011
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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NIGERIAN CARGOS - DEC 2011
Qty Grade Dates Seller Buyer 1 Price Date Buyer 2 Price Date Co loading
Agbami
950 03-04 Statoil Vitol Brent dtd + 0.60 22.10.2011 BPCL (India) x
950 07-08 Shell Petrogal dtd + 0.45 ?? 25.10.2011
950 11-12 Chevron Vitol was indicated dtd +0.50
950 15-16 Chevron Petrobras dtd+0.55 27.10.2011
950 19-20 Chevron Petrobras dtd+0.60 29.10.2011
950 23-24 Statoil System
950 27-28 Chevron Statoil dtd+0.65 03.11.2011
950 30-31 Chevron indication : dtd+0.75 04.11.2011
Qty Qua Iboe
950 01-02 Exxon Vitol offer dtd+1.45 22.10.2011 BPCL (India) x
950 03-04 NNPC Glencore Vitol
950 06-07 NNPC Glencore Shell
950 08-09 Exxon Cepsa
950 11-12 NNPC Unipec Sun
950 13-14 Exxon Shell dtd+1.53
950 15-16 NNPC Arcadia Sun x
950 18-19 NNPC Mercuria Sun x
950 21-22 Exxon Statoil Bahamas STORAGE
950 23-24 NNPC BP system
950 25-26 NNPC Trafigura to USG, buyer unknown
950 27-28 NNPC Glencore BP
950 29-30 Exxon indication : dtd +1.70
Qty Batelle
950 22-23 HEG
1-15 Nov. 2011
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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FPSO
Crude : Batelle
API : 29.6, S : 0.35
Quantité : 950’000 bbls
Chargement : 22-23 Déc. 2011
Prix indicatif : dtd -0.20$/bbl
3 Nov. 2011
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Schéma production crude Batelle
Floating Production, Storage and Offloading
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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ALTERNATIVE GRADES
20
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
01/01/2011
01/02/2011
01/03/2011
01/04/2011
01/05/2011
01/06/2011
01/07/2011
01/08/2011
01/09/2011
01/10/2011
01/11/2011
Azeri Lt CIF Dif
Saharan
Qua Iboe
Bonny Lt
CPC Blend CIF
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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ARBITRAGE BRENT VS U.S. MARKET ET DUBAI
BRENT
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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CRACKS FOB MED 2011
22
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
12/05/11
26/05/11
09/06/11
23/06/11
07/07/11
21/07/11
04/08/11
18/08/11
01/09/11
15/09/11
29/09/11
13/10/11
27/10/11
GASOIL FOB MED
JET FOB MED
GASOLINE FOB MED
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Batelle Terminal - Genoa
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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DAILY SPOT CHARTER MARKET RATE ESTIMATES AS OF: 09-Nov-11
30 50 80 100 130 270 ULCC
Size Range 25-35 70-90 160-300 350-400
Clean Dirty Dirty Dirty Dirty Dirty Dirty Dirty
Carib/USG-EC
215 250 150 82.5
Med/Med
145 175 152.5 85 75 67.5
Med/UKC
155 175 152.5 80 72.5 62.5
Med/USG-EC
142.5 95 65 57.5
Med/Singapore
$2.500m $3.000m
UKC/UKC
155 160 152.5 100 100
UKC/Med
152.5 92.5 80 60
UKC/USG
142.5 102.5 65 57.5
BALTIC/USG
85
W.Africa/USG-EC
100 75 57.5
W.Africa/UKC-Med
95 77.5 62.5
AG/Med (S/S)
95 60
AG/Singapore
102.5 75 55 50
AG/Japan
55
SUEZMAX
WS
0.775
TONNAGE 130’000 DWT
FLAT RATE 15.61
LUMPSUM 1'572'708
$ / BBL 1.65
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Pricing period cargo
Week 52 vs week 48-52 : collecting 45 cts/bbl
PHYSIQUE PAPIER Balance
ACHAT VENTE VENDRE ACHAT
01.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
02.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
05.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
06.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
07.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
08.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
09.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
12.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
13.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
14.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
15.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
16.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
19.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
20.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
21.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
22.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
23.12.2011 -43.2 43.2 0
26.12.2011 190 -43.2 -190 43.2 0
27.12.2011 190 -43.2 -190 43.2 0
28.12.2011 190 -43.2 -190 43.2 0
29.12.2011 190 -43.2 -190 43.2 0
30.12.2011 190 -43.2 -190 43.2 0
950 -950.4 -950 950.4 0
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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PROCESSUS DU DEAL
11-15 Oct. 18-29 Oct. 18 Oct.- 5 Nov. 1-12 Nov. 11 Nov.
RECEPTION DU
PROGRAMME BATELLE TRADING WINDOW TRADING WINDOW TRADING WINDOW DEAL CONCLU !
22-23 DEC CHARGEMENT CHARGEMENT CHARGEMENT PRICING DIFFERENT
+ 1-10 DEC. 11-20 DEC. 21-31 DEC. CARGAISON DELIVREE
AUTRES PROGRAMMES
dès le 11 Nov. dès 1er Dec. 22-23 Dec. 05-06 Jan 2012
MARCHE DES MARCHE DU DATES DE DATES DE
CFD'S FREIGHT CHARGEMENT DECHARGEMENT
COUVRIR L'EXPOSITION FIXER UN BATEAU HEG
PRICING SUEZMAX FOB TERMINAL CIF ITALY
Achat : 5 après BL Destination : Italie
Vente : Cal December
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Deal sheet - recap
BUYER Shell
SELLER HEG
QUALITY Batelle Crude Oil
QUANTITY 950'000 +/- 5 %
PRICE DTD +1.00 $/BBL
(FOB DTD -0.20/BBL + FREIGHT +1.65/BBL – PRICING -0.45$/BBL)
LOADING 22-23 Dec 2011
DELIVERY CIF, 05-06 Jan. 2012 @ Genoa (Italy)
PRICING Cal. Dec 2011, BL
LAW English law
GT & C CIF BP
PAYMENT 30 days after BL
LAYTIME 36 + 6
INSPECTION 50/50 % buyer/seller
OTHER TERMS As per previous deals
Stricltly confidential and not for public use
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Et enfin, le 22 déc. 2011 :
le bateau affrété par l’HEG arrive vers le FPSO Batelle pour un
chargement qui durera environ 24h.
Batelle Crude Terminal
