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Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

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Page 1: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr
Page 2: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

Smart Beta Selection

– Pick the Right One!

Page 3: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

3

The Proliferation of Smart Beta Index Strategies

1 Includes FTSE RAFI, Russell RAFI, and RAFI Indices, LLC strategies. Note: Chart represents smart beta index strategies launched since 2003.

2003

2005FTSE RAFI Index Series

2008“Smart Beta” Label Emerges

3/2005Publication of “Fundamental Indexation” in the FAJ

» Each dot represents a “family” of smart beta index strategies, which could have dozens of underlying indices (geography, size, etc.)

» For example, there are over 100 indices associated with the RAFI Fundamental Index 1

Page 4: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

4

Has Led to ETF Product Proliferation

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Morningstar.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

# ofETFs

AssetsUS $

(billions)

Smart Beta Equity ETF Growth (2005–2016)

ETF Assets ($B) # of ETFs

Page 5: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

5

Too.

Many.

Options.

Page 6: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

6

What to Do!?

» DO NOT chase performance– We’ve all gotten burned before…

» DO choose robust Smart Beta strategies– There are only a few!

» DO focus on product craftsmanship– Reliably impactful to investment return!

Page 7: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

7

Trend Chasing is Dangerous

Page 8: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

8

1.5%1.2%

2.2%

0.34

0.25

0.34

Equally Weighted Smart BetaAllocation

Three Best Performing SmartBeta Strategies (1,3,5,10 yr

Performance)

Three Cheapest Smart BetaStrategies (1,3,5,10 yr

Performance)

Performance Characteristics of Trend-Chasing and Contrarian Allocations, Smart Beta Strategies, United States (Jan 1977–Aug 2016)

Value Add (Ann.) Information Ratio

Trend Chasing Is Costly

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using CRSP/Compustat and Worldscope/Datastream data. For more information, please see Arnott, R., N. Beck, and V. Kalesnik. 2016. “Timing ‘Smart Beta’ Strategies? Of Course! Buy Low, Sell High!” (September).

Page 9: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

9Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Bloomberg.

Most Product Providers Are Trend Chasers!

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

-36 -30 -24 -18 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24 30 36

CumulativeValue ofExcessReturn

Number of Months Before and After ETF Launch

Three-Year Cumulative Relative Index Performance (Jan 1993–Dec 2014)

Average SEC Application Date

No Performance Advantage Three Years After ETF Launch!

Page 10: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

10

Cumulative Excess Return Before/After Index Launch

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Bloomberg. Note: Our sample consists of 125 US equity smart beta indices on which exchange-traded funds (ETFs), characterized as strategic beta by Morningstar, are based. We exclude sector indices; indices for which we are not able to obtain the launch date; and indices with less that one year of backtest or live return data. If two or more ETFs track the same index, we include that index only once. Excess returns are measured as of the launch date for the respective index.

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

0 12 24 36 48 60

CumulativeValue ofExcessReturn

Months Since Launch

Live

95% Conf. Band Avg

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

-60 -48 -36 -24 -12 0

Cumulative Value of Excess Return

Months Since Launch

Backtest

Page 11: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

11

1,000+ SB ETFs. Many don’t work!

Page 12: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

12

How do we know which Smart Beta strategies are robust?

» Those based on factors that have been vetted, replicated, and debated in top academic journals over decades.

» The strategy works across geographic regions.

» The strategy offers a robust premium across minor variations in the signal definition/construction.

» Trading costs do not erode the return premium offered by the corresponding factor.

Page 13: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

13

Not All Popular Factor Strategies Are Robust

*Sharpe ratio of long portfolio minus short portfolio for each factor.Source: Beck et al. 2016. “Will Your Factor Deliver? An Examination of Factor Robustness and Implementation Costs.” Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 72, no. 5 (September/October).

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Book

-to-

Pric

e

Earn

ings

-to-

Pric

e

Cash

flow

-to-

Pric

e

Div

iden

ds-t

o-Pr

ice

Low

Bet

a

Low

Vol

atili

ty

-2 to

-12

Mon

ths

-2 to

-6

Mon

ths

-1 to

-12

Mon

ths

Gro

ss P

rofit

abili

ty

Retu

rn o

n Eq

uity

Gro

ss M

argi

ns

Book

Lev

erag

e

50%

Sm

all,

50%

Big

75%

Sm

all,

25%

Big

25%

Sm

all,

75%

Big

SharpeRatio

Difference

Sharpe Ratio Difference* of Long–Short Factor Portfolios, US, 1967–2014

Value vs.Growth

Low Beta vs.

High Beta

High Momentum vs.

Low Momentum

Quality vs. Junk

Small vs. Big

Robust Non-Robust

Page 14: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

14

Valuations Are Predictive of Future Returns

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from CRSP and Compustat. Strategy returns and characteristics are simulated for US region. Please see strategy descriptions at the end of this presentation. Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs. cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr. Dividends. RAFI strategy is for the period Jan 1962–Sep 2012. Low Volatility, Quality, and Standard Momentum strategies are for the period Jan 1968–Sep 2012. High Dividend and RAFI Dynamic Multi-Factor are for the period Jul 1968–Sep 2012.

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.30 0.75 1.20 1.65 2.10

Subsequent Five-Year

Excess Return

Valuation Ratio

RAFI

High Dividend

Quality

Standard Momentum

RAFI Dynamic Multi-Factor

Low Volatility

Cheap Expensive

Page 15: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

15

Difference in expense ratios for smart beta strategies:

2–20 bps

Market impact of poorly engineered funds:

200+ bps!

Page 16: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

16

Implicit Cost of Indexing Strategies

» Zero Tracking Error ≠ No Cost!

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Bloomberg, Worldscope, and Datastream.Trade impact measured for all FTSE RAFI rebalance trades for the period 2009–2016. See also Chow et al. 2017. “Cost and Capacity: Comparing Smart Beta Strategies.” Research Affiliates Publications (July).

Day 0Purchase a security after 43 bps impact – 0% TE

Day 4+Value of holding reverses by 24 bps

Future rebalance daySuffer 43 bps impact when sell the security

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

-1 0 1 2 3 4

Mar

ket I

mpa

ct

Days Before/After Trade (End of Day)

Page 17: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

17

Market Impact Transaction Cost Study:What are the implicit costs when trading stocks?

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC. Measured for 25,000 trades across all geographies for four years from 2010 to 2013, using FTSE RAFI. Interestingly, studies by two of our

contemporaries, AQR and INTECH, confirm our statistical analysis of the relationship between ADV and market impact cost (10% ADV = 0.30% Cost).

0.11%

0.21%0.27%

0.40%

0.51%

0.64%0.70%

0.83%

1.07%

0-2.5% 2.5-5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30% 30-35% 35-40%

MarketImpact

Size of Trade in Percentage of ADV

Average Market Impact vs Trade Size

» For every 10% ADV traded in a stock, implicit transaction costs are 0.30% (30 bps).

» This relationship is persistent across US, developed ex US, and emerging markets trading.

Page 18: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

18

Usual Suspects Associated with High Trading Costs

» High Turnover» Low Weighted-Average Market Cap» Low Number of Holdings

» What craftsmanship is needed to achieve net-of-cost benefit?– Coverage and weighting mechanism– Signal definition– Measurement period– Rebalancing frequency

Page 19: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

19

Which Index Strategy Is More Expensive?

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from CRSP/Compustat. Strategy returns and characteristics are simulated. Please see strategy descriptions at the end of this presentation.

11.4%

71.5%

20.3% 24.0%

156.6%

51.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Average Annual Turnover(1969–2017)

$162B

$82B

$29B

$220B $222B

$133B

0

50

100

150

200

250

Weighted Avg. Market Cap(12/31/2017)

440

100 99 124

330

858

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Number of Holdings(12/31/2017)

RAFI Low Volatility High Dividend Quality Standard Momentum RAFI Dynamic Multi-Factor

Page 20: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

20

Craftsmanship Matters: Value Strategies

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from CRSP/Compustat. Strategy returns and characteristics are simulated. Please see strategy descriptions at the end of this presentation.

11.0% 11.0%11.7%

13.7%

11.9

18.4

1.6

17.6

Gen-1 Value Equal Weight RAFI FundamentalIndex

RAFI Value Factor

Costin bps

Return

Simulated US Strategies, 1968 Jul. to 2017 Dec.

Historical Return Cost at $10B AUM

Page 21: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

21

Craftsmanship Matters: Low Risk Strategies

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from CRSP/Compustat. Strategy returns and characteristics are simulated. Please see strategy descriptions at the end of this presentation.

12.0%

13.2%

12.3%

13.3%379.7

40.3 40.210.4

UnconstrainedMin Var

ConstrainedMin Var

Naïve Low Vol(1/Vol)

RAFI LVFactor

Costin bps

Volatility

Simulated US Strategies, 1968 Jul. to 2017 Dec.

Volatility Cost at $10B AUM

Page 22: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

22

Transaction Costs for Smart Beta Strategies: The Hidden Component May Dominate

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from CRSP/Compustat. Please see strategy descriptions https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/smart-beta#!/strategies?expanded=implementationBarChart&expandedSelection=Estimated+Trading+Cost. Market impact costs of US strategies are estimates as of 12/2017, based on AUM of $10B for each strategy. Expected expense ratios reflect the average +/- standard deviation of prospectus expense ratio of the 161 US-based Large+Mid Cap strategic beta ETFs tracked by Morningstar as of 12/2017.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%Estimated Market Impact (Implicit Cost), US

Expected Expense Ratio (Explicit Cost)

Value Income Low Vol Quality Momentum All Styles

24 ± 13 bps 33 ± 19 bps 19 ± 8 bps 36 ± 19 bps 33 ± 26 bps 32 ± 18 bps

Page 23: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

23

Clunky Implementations ≠ “Smart” Beta

Page 24: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

24

Recap

» You can identify great smart beta strategies if you…– DO NOT chase performance– DO choose robust smart beta strategies– DO focus on product craftsmanship

» …these strategies deliver well understood sources of excess returns through simple, transparent, low cost indices that lead to…– Better net-of-cost return and Sharpe ratios– Improved client outcomes

Page 25: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

25

@ra_insights

research-affiliates

www.ResearchAffiliates.com

Thank You

Page 26: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

26

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Page 27: Smart Beta Selection...Valuation ratio is calculated as the average of the following four ratios for each respective strategy vs.cap weight: P/B, P/5Yr. Sales, P/5Yr. Earnings, P/5Yr

27

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