Stock Analysis

S.No Stock CMP Target Buying Price Target Selling Price

1 ABC Bearing 129 129 Comfortable two-bagger2 Riddhi Siddhi Gluco 390 390 7403 HOV Services 103 103 2004 Shilpa Medicare 278 278 Multi-bagger 5 Lakshmi Energy and Fo 68 68 Double6 Mayur Uniquoters 275 275 4007 Vinati Organics 72 70 1008 Balkrishna Industries 692 692 Atleast double9 Ashiana Housing 156 Buy on dips 220

10 Balaji Amines 38 38 Not sure11 Manjushree Technopack 80 60-65 12012 Opto Circuits 272 ? ?13 Patels Airtemp 86 ? ?14 Sunflag Iron and Steel 27 27 Rerating15 Gujarat Reclaim rubber 102816 VST Tillers 471 47117 Facor Alloys

Reasoning Blogs

Refer ValuePickr discussion on Riddhi SiddhiRefer ValuePickr discussion on HOV HIGH DEBT LEVELSOncology, Growth - Read Dalaal-streetRISKY, Compare with KRBL

Excellent prospectsExcellent company, risk of rise in interest ratesExcellent company, good growth prospects (fair value: Excellent company, PET bottles, currently priceyExcellent fundamentalsExcellent fundamentals, slow and steady growthExcellent fundamentals, great growth prospectsMarket leader, with 50% market shareMarket leader, with 50% market share

For FY 2011, the company is expected to post a turnover of 205 Cr+. i.e.. a growth of more than 25%For FY 2011, the co may be able to post a NP of more than 25 Cr+, hence an EPS of more than 22.Stock is trading at about 7 times expected FY 2011 earning.The co has consistent record of high dividend pay-out of 25-30%. Last year the company paid a dividend of 45%.Co has enjoyed high ROCE of 30%+ consistently.Its almost a debt free company. Co repaid a loan of about 50 Cr in FY 2010.If one looks at the valuations of bigger players in the industry like SKF, NRB, FAG Bearing etc, they trade at 15-20 PE.

http://www.valuepickr.com/company/shilpa-medicare/stock-storyhttp://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/778928774http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/62331048

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/3811531http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/62331051http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/778928775http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/3811533/conversation_view?b_start:int=30&-C=

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/936594761http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/47063855

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/stocks-for-the-long-run/896909798

http://www.valuepickr.com/company/shilpa-medicare/stock-story

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/778928774





http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/3811533/conversation_view?b_start:int=30&-C=




http://www.valuepickr.com/company/shilpa-medicare/stock-storyhttp://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/778928774http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/62331048

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/3811531http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/62331051http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/778928775http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/3811533/conversation_view?b_start:int=30&-C=

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/936594761http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/47063855


http://www.valuepickr.com/company/shilpa-medicare/stock-story






http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/3811533/conversation_view?b_start:int=30&-C=




S.No Stock CMP

1 Liberty Phosphate

2 Phillips Carbon Black

3 Supreme Industries 1524 Poly Medicure5 Span Diagnosis6 Andhra Petro7 Goodricke Group8 Jkumar Infraprojects9 Smartlink Networks ?

10 Swaraj Engines

11 Repro India

12 Modison Metals13 Pennar

14 Suprajit Engineering15 Aditya Birla Chemicals 14116 Astral Poly17 International Travel House18 Navbharat Ferro Alloys19 Lloyd Electric Engg20 Photoquip 47

21 Relaxo 31722 Cravatex 49323 Dhanuka Agritech ?24 Wimplast25 TIL26 Everonn 59727 KDDL28 Simran Farms 5329 Container Corp 1262

30 Mangalore Chemicals 36

31 Uflex 18132 Akzo Noble ?33 Asian Paints 268734 Berger Paints 9735 Kansai Nerolac 90736 Shalimar Paints 31537 Nitin Spinners38 CNI Research39 Mangalore Refinery and Pe 68

40 Mazda Ltd 11041 eClerx42 Engineers India43 CESC44 Castrol India45 Diamines and Chemicals46 Allied Digital

Thermax

Bluestar

Zydus Wellness

Page

Hawwkins

TTK Prestige

TitanRallis IndiaSah PetroShanti Gears

Vijay Shanti builderAmrit BanaspatiAgro tech

Reasoning

Terrific fundamentals, great ratios, check, check and check P/E, P/B etc

Declining RoE, ROCE over the years. High P/E = 27Very good ratios, very good valuation except for a dip in FY09.Volatile ratios and returns from FY05 to FY10. Ratios comparable to industryExcellent company, very good ratios, slightly higher P/BInfra company, decent ratios, somewhat volatile from Fy05 to Fy07?

Consistent increase in RoE, RoCE etc. Slightly high P/E

?Choppy ratios historically, current P/E and P/B slightly on the higher sideHigh PE, High PB, Decent ratios?Very low PB, Low PE, Negative FCF, Reducing ratios all aroundGood ratios, P/E = 3.67, P/B = 1.2

Terrific ratios all around, P/E = 18, P/B = 3.5?All ratios look terrific, A steep jump for FY10. High PE, High PB, Ratios not comparable to industryTerrific ratios all around, P/E = 21, P/B = 3.53Ridiculous PE, bad ratiosTerrific ratios all around, P/E = 9.19, P/B = 1.97Fantastic ratios, fantastic growth, P/E = 20, P/B = 4

?Terrific ratios all around, P/E = 34, P/B = 17P/E = 28, P/B = 5, All other ratios according to industry standardP/E =13, P/B = 3, High ROCE, High ROE, High NPM, Terrific Interest coverageP/E =12, P/B = 3, High ROCE, High ROE, Low NPMNegative PAT, High D/E, Negative RoEHigh P/B, Negative EPS, Penny Stock, Negative P/E, High P/ETerrific ratios, P/E = 11, P/B = 3

Proper valuation (P/E, P/B, RoA, RoCE and all). However a big jump in FY10. Evaluate reason before jumping into the stock

Low P/E, However all other ratios are poorer compared to Industry median. FCF is negative.

High P/E, High P/B, Very good business, M&M accounts for 90% of revenues, decent prices is around Rs. 390

Increase in debt, decreasing RoE, RoCE, On demand print solutions - RoCE consistently dropping…now below 10%

Reducing OPM, Reducing ratios, (electrical contacts dependent on silver…high price of silver might eat into profits

All ratios look good…however FY07 hasn’t been that good. Historical trackrecord is sketchy

Good fundamentals, Terrific RoA, RoE and RoCE, Decent interest coverage, P/E = 26, P/B = 5

Nothing great about ratios, P/E = 15, P/B = 1.13, Interest coverage reduced year on year

P/E = 12, P/B = 1.6, Good ratios all around, D/E = 1.55, Declined during the recent mid cap crash

Terrific ratiosExcellent company, very good ratios, Higher PE, Higher PBCheck P/E on ValuePickr?Check P/E on ValuePickrVolatile ratios, declining ratios, sudden prop up in FY10Decent ratios, nothing fantastic

High P/B, High P/E, Choppy ratios over the yearsPoor ratios, poor everythingHigh P/E, Not too great a ratios

Shaky ratios, available cheapGood ratios all around, High P/B, High P/E

Extremely high P/B, Extremely high P/E, No debt,Reducing RoE and RoCE over the past 5 years

High P/B, P/E ~ 20, Fantastic RoCE and RoE, Negligible long term debt, Good prospects, in the Consumer durable industry

Fantastic ratios all round, High promoter holding, Good prospects but extremely high P/E (P/E ~ 50), will be subjected to reversion to mean

Fantastic ratios all round, High promoter holding, Good prospects but extremely high P/E (P/E ~ 43), will be subjected to reversion to mean

Fantastic ratios all round, High promoter holding, Good prospects, decent P/E but extremely high P/B (P/E ~ 14), will be subjected to reversion to mean

Fantastic ratios all round, High promoter holding, Good prospects, High P/E (P/E ~ 33) and extremely high P/B (P/E ~ 13), will be subjected to reversion to mean

Fantastic ratios all round, High promoter holding, Good prospects but extremely high P/E (P/E ~ 60) and P/B (P/B ~ 21), will be subjected to reversion to mean

Less than book value, slightly higher P/E, maybe a turnaround story, decent ratios till the steep drop in FY09

Important Stocks

Decision

Evaluate

Reject

Track and DigReject Track if you have timeDig deeper *****RejectDig deeper *****Evaluate? ?

Track Watch for Declines

Reject

RejectDig deeper *****

Evaluate? Good fundamentalsEvaluateTrack Watch for Declines? ?RejectDig deeper *****

Track and Dig Watch for DeclinesTrack Watch for Declines? ?Dig deeper *****RejectTrack Watch for DeclinesRejectDig deeper *****Track Watch for Declines

Explore and Reject

Dig deeper? ?Track Watch for DeclinesTrack Watch for DeclinesTrack Watch for DeclinesTrack Watch for DeclinesRejectRejectTrack and Dig Watch for Declines

Buy below Rs. 150 (P/E below 11 or 10) - SIP the stock, may be?

Dig deeperTrack Watch for Declines?? ??Explore and RejectEvaluate

Reject

Watch for Declines

Watch for Declines

Watch for Declines

Strong Buy on Declines

Strong Buy on Declines

Watch for DeclinesRejectRejectReject

EvaluateWatch for DeclinesWatch for Declines

S.No Stock CMP9 Smartlink Networks ?

15 Aditya Birla Chemicals 14118 Navbharat Ferro Alloys23 Dhanuka Agritech ?32 Akzo Noble ?42 Engineers India43 CESC44 Castrol India

Reasoning Decision

? ? ?

? ? Good fundamentals

? ? ?

? ? ?

? ? ?

Check P/E on ValuePickr ?

? ? ?

Check P/E on ValuePickr ?

S.No Stock CMP

10 Swaraj Engines17 International Travel House22 Cravatex 49326 Everonn 59729 Container Corp 126233 Asian Paints 2687

34 Berger Paints 97

35 Kansai Nerolac 90736 Shalimar Paints 31541 eClerx

3 Supreme Industries 152

21 Relaxo 31739 Mangalore Refinery and Petr 68

Supreme Industries vs Wimplast

Reasoning Decision


High PE, High PB, Decent ratios Track Watch for Declines

Terrific ratios all around, P/E = 18, P/B = 3.5 Track Watch for Declines

Terrific ratios all around, P/E = 21, P/B = 3.53 Track Watch for Declines

Fantastic ratios, fantastic growth, P/E = 20, P/B = 4 Track Watch for Declines

Terrific ratios all around, P/E = 34, P/B = 17 Track Watch for Declines

P/E = 28, P/B = 5, All other ratios according to industry standardTrack Watch for Declines


P/E =12, P/B = 3, High ROCE, High ROE, Low NPM Track Watch for Declines

Excellent company, very good ratios, Higher PE, Higher PB Track Watch for Declines

Terrific fundamentals, great ratios, check, check and check P/E, P/B eTrack and Dig

Track and Dig Watch for Declines

Terrific ratios, P/E = 11, P/B = 3 Track and Dig Watch for Declines

High P/E, High P/B, Very good business, M&M accounts for 90% of revenues, decent prices is around Rs. 390

P/E =13, P/B = 3, High ROCE, High ROE, High NPM, Terrific Interest coverage

Buy below Rs. 150 (P/E below 11 or 10) - SIP the stock, may be?

Good fundamentals, Terrific RoA, RoE and RoCE, Decent interest coverage, P/E = 26, P/B = 5

S.No Stock CMP

5 Span Diagnostics

7 Goodricke Group

13 Pennar20 Photoquip 47

24 Wimplast

28 Simran Farms 53

31 Uflex 181

40 Mazda Ltd 110

Reasoning Decision

Dig deeper *****

Excellent company, very good ratios, slightly higher P/BDig deeper *****

Consistent increase in RoE, RoCE etc. Slightly high P/EDig deeper *****

Good ratios, P/E = 3.67, P/B = 1.2 Dig deeper *****

All ratios look terrific, A steep jump for FY10. Dig deeper *****

Terrific ratios all around, P/E = 9.19, P/B = 1.97

Dig deeper *****

Dig deeper

Terrific ratios

Dig deeper

Very good ratios, very good valuation except for a dip in FY09.

P/E = 12, P/B = 1.6, Good ratios all around, D/E = 1.55, Declined during the recent mid cap crash

Market potential not too clear.

Strong buy on declines

Buy on Declines, market leader in diagnostic products, very good ratios, extremely good business, similar to Shilpa Medicare, expansion plans in place

Dig more…Andrew Yule, Diana seem to have better valuations

Strong strong buy. Steel+Rail wagons+Pre-engineering

Covered by Rohit, Evaluate Supreme Industries vs Wimplast

High volatility, look out for big declines. No dividend, seemingly a multi-bagger…watch out

Industrial machinery and Foods…two unrelated markets…dig a little deeper before investing

Main engineer (one of the promoter very old - 75 yrs)…Not sure what would happen if he passes away

S.No Stock CMP Reasoning

30 Mangalore Chemicals 36

45 Diamines and Chemicals

1 Liberty Phosphate

8 Jkumar Infraprojects

14 Suprajit Engineering

16 Astral Poly46 Allied Digital Decent ratios, nothing fantastic

Nothing great about ratios, P/E = 15, P/B = 1.13, Interest coverage reduced year on year

Volatile ratios, declining ratios, sudden prop up in FY10

Proper valuation (P/E, P/B, RoA, RoCE and all). However a big jump in FY10. Evaluate reason before jumping into the stock

Infra company, decent ratios, somewhat volatile from Fy05 to Fy07

All ratios look good…however FY07 hasn’t been that good. Historical trackrecord is sketchy

Choppy ratios historically, current P/E and P/B slightly on the higher side

Decision

Explore and Reject

Explore and Reject

Evaluate

Evaluate

Evaluate

EvaluateEvaluate

S.No Stock CMP Reasoning

2 Phillips Carbon Black

4 Poly MedicureDeclining RoE, ROCE over the years. High P/E = 27

6 Andhra Petro

11 Repro India

12 Modison Metals

19 Lloyd Electric Engg

25 TILHigh PE, High PB, Ratios not comparable to industry

27 KDDL Ridiculous PE, bad ratios37 Nitin Spinners Negative PAT, High D/E, Negative RoE

38 CNI Research

Low P/E, However all other ratios are poorer compared to Industry median. FCF is negative.

Volatile ratios and returns from FY05 to FY10. Ratios comparable to industry

Increase in debt, decreasing RoE, RoCE, On demand print solutions - RoCE consistently dropping…now below 10%

Reducing OPM, Reducing ratios, (electrical contacts dependent on silver…high price of silver might eat into profits

Very low PB, Low PE, Negative FCF, Reducing ratios all around

High P/B, Negative EPS, Penny Stock, Negative P/E, High P/E

Decision

Reject

Reject Track if you have time

Reject

Reject

Reject

Reject

RejectRejectReject

Reject

HIT2710 portfolio

ajantha pharma(208), hov(108), omnitech intl(207), aries agro(135), vst tillers(480), patels airtemp(90), shanthi gears(45), cera(155), bannari aman spinning(138), are the ones that come to mind based on cmp.

Zydus, Dabur, Supreme Industries, Relaxo

SMARTCAT portfolio

S.No Stock

1 Mazda Ltd

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2290&PN=185


http://www.topstockresearch.com/StockLowsReport/FNOStocksOneYearLowReport.html?sms_ss=blogger&at_xt=4cefcb10d4ab3418,0

http://blog.investraction.com/2010/12/stocks-that-fell-50-in-month.html

http://www.rmdhar.com/





http://www.rmdhar.com/

2 HOV 3 Shanti Gears4 Repro India5 Modison Metals6 Lloyd Electric Engg7 Wimplast8


Reasoning





- Mazda Ltd operates in two different industries - Engineering (primarily Industrial machinery) and Foods - P/E ~ 6, P/B = 1.4 - The company has been posting impressive numbers over the past 5 years - ROCE CAGR of ~ 20% and NPM CAGR of ~30% of over the past 5 years - Negligible debt, High interest coverage - Hived off the Valve division (low margin, high inv) for Rs 22 cr which is supposedly a catalyst. AR states that the sale proceeds would be used in the vacuum pump division which would grow faster. - All in all, looks an extremely good stock. So far so good. - However, operating in two different industries (diworsefication), and the Food division started and managed by the MD's daughter (Ms. Shananya Mody, daughter of Mr. Sorab Mody) - Insider selling by the only other Wholetime Director (Percy X Avari). Mr. Percy Avari is supposed to be the brains behind the industrial machinery design.





- HOVS is one of the largest end-to-end BPO companies, providing healthcare, finance and accounting, e-content management and other services across key verticals such as BFSI, Healthcare, Government, Telco, Publishing, Retail, Commercial and Industrial Manufacturing industries. - The major motivation to get in depth of this stock was the recommendation by Hitesh Patel (of hitstocks fame - his stock picking ability is awesome!) - Although they have been paying down debt year on year, they still have a tremendous amount of debt, especially considering its a BPO company - Their earnings (recent and past 5 years) have been nothing to write home about - The lesser said about RoCE, RoE CAGR, the better. It's actually decreasing - I am not even sure of the Interest coverage - Even after a steep fall, the stock looks expensive on a adjusted PE. However Adj PE TTM is close to 12. - With so many BPO players, I am not even sure whether HOV would have any competitive advantage (inspite of many clients across sectors). - They are opening a center in China.


Decision


Reject for now. The AR isn't clear if they are investing further in the food division at all inspite of the razor thin margins and low volume. If they hive off the food division, this looks like a good buy. On the other hand, if Ms. Shanany Mody gets the ownership of the entire company, I would be skeptical in investing in this company (Food division is her pet project - I am not too sure how cashflows would be utilised).


Reject for now. Their debt levels scare me. I'd probably look at this stock say 6 months from now and see if the debt levels have been reduced significantly.

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