Thayer Vietnam's Defence Diplomacy 2005

8/14/2019 Thayer Vietnam's Defence Diplomacy 2005

1/54

Vietnams Defence Diplomacy

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Director, UNSW Defence Studies Forum

Presentation to Asia-Pacific Seminar Series

UNSW@ADFA

September 12, 2005


2/54

Overview

1. Strategic Defence Dimension2. Defence Diplomacy, 1990-20043. Defence Cooperation4. Procurements and Defence Industry

Cooperation

5.

Defence Relations with China andthe United States

6. Conclusion


3/54


4/54

Government Spending on Defence


5/54

2. Defence Diplomacy

Cold War alignments USSR, Warsaw Pact states, China, Cuba

Non-Aligned Movement Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos,

Yugoslavia

Defence relations with more than 60countries (2003)

33 Defence Attaches accredited 22 Defence Attaches posted


6/54

High-Level Exchanges

Ministerial level (MND) Chief of the General Staff (CGS) Political General Department (GPD) Logistics Department (GLD)

Deputy Minister Service Chiefs

Army, Navy, Air


7/54

A Note on Sources

Russian Federation, Belgium, Thailand

North Korea, Laos, Germany


8/54

Major Categories of Exchanges

Chart 1 High-Level Exchanges 1990-05

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

MND CGS GPD GLD SC

Type of Delegation

NumberofVis

its

To Vietnam

From Vietnam


9/54

Trends in High-Level Exchanges

Chart 2 High Level Exchanges 1990-2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year

NumberofVisits

To Vietnam From Vietnam


10/54

Defence and GDP Growth


11/54

Density of High-Level Exchanges

44% ASEAN

20% Traditional Allies

17% Major Powers

China, United States, Japan

8% New Europe

11 % Other Asia, Africa, Middle Eastand Latin America and Others


12/54

Density of Defence Exchanges

44 - Laos 17 - India 11 - Singapore 6 - Italy Malaysia Ukraine

36 - China 15 - Philippines 10 - Australia France Indonesia

4 - Poland Slovak

26 - Thailand 13 - Russia 9 - Japan8 - Cuba 3 - Algeria Belgium

Brunei22 - Cambodia 12 - United

States 7 - Myanmar

N Korea

S KoreaAngola,Belarus,Bulgaria, Congo

R, Mozambique,

Netherlands, UK


13/54

Military Diplomacy

Accrediting of Defence Attaches Protocol visits Staff College/National Defence Instituteexchanges Goodwill visits

External Relations DepartmentSong and Dance Ensemble

Naval ship visits


14/54

Naval Ship Visits, 1990-2005

7 India 6 Australia 5 France 5 United Kingdom 4 Thailand 3 South Korea 3 United States 2 Italy

2 Malaysia 2 Russia 1 Canada 1 China 1 Indonesia 1 Japan 1 New Zealand


15/54


16/54

Memorandum of Understanding

Annual work plans exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.

Address specific bilateral issues Border security (land and maritime) MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay

Combined military activities Medical research Search and Rescue Coordinated naval patrols


17/54

Defence Cooperation Agreements

Laos special solidarity andcomprehensive cooperation

internal security,border control, MIAs China border security

Military Region commanders Thailand maritime security Cambodia border security, MIAs


18/54

Defence Cooperation Agreements

India (1994 and 2000)

Russia (October 1998) Australia post-1999 United States (October 1996) Other DCAs

Bulgaria, Belgium, South Korea andGermany


19/54

4. Procurement and

Defence Industry Cooperation

Spare Parts Storage Repair and Maintenance Refurbishment and Upgrading Education and Training Research and Development National Defence Industry cooperation Acquisition of new capabilities


20/54

Sales and Servicing Contracts

Russian Federation (1994, 1998, 2003)Ukraine (2002)India (2002)Europe - Bulgaria, Czech, Finland,

Poland

ASEAN States SingaporeOther Suppliers Israel, North Korea


21/54

Government Defence Expenditure


22/54

Air Force Modernization

Upgrade and modernise MiG-21and Su-22fighter/ground attack aircraft

Su-30 preferred air superiority fighterFunding a major constraintMay opt for less expensive Su-22

Upgrade of Su-27s and Su-30s with beyondvisual range air-to-air missiles

Military communications satellite?


23/54

Czech L-39C Trainers

Nine purchased in 1992 and ten more in 2003


24/54

Su-22 M4Fitter

Upgraded1994-98 in

Russia and

2005 inUkraine


25/54

10-12 Su-27s purchased in 1994

Su-27 UBK Flanker


26/54

MiG-21FishbedUpgrades


27/54

4 Su-30 MKKsFulcrums 2003


28/54

PZL M-28 Skytruck

Tenordered

from

Polandin 2003


29/54

PZL SwidnikW-3 SAR


30/54

Air Defence

S-300PMU1

2003

(SA-10Grumble)


31/54

Naval Modernisation

Protect offshore oil and gas claims Anti-shipping capability

Match extended naval reach in South ChinaSea by other claimant countries

Anti-submarine warfareCounter threat of Chinese submarines

Mines counter-measures capability


32/54

Deterrence

capability inSouth China

Sea


33/54

TarantulClass (Type 1241)

4 acquiredfrom

Russia in

1996-98


34/54

Tarantul3 Corvette

TwoMolnya

1241.8 FAC (M)

delivered in 2005,

eight to be

assembled in

Vietnam


35/54

Anti-shipping Capability

Styx Missile

Sunburn

missile


36/54

BPS 500 Fast Attack Craft (M)

2 acquired1998. BPS

500 now

under

production

in Vietnam


37/54

KBO 2000 Corvette

Project 2100 Recently Cancelled


38/54

Yugo-Class Midget Submarine


39/54

Land Force Modernisation

Main Battle TanksFinland 70 (T-54 and T-55)

Poland (150 T-72)

Multiple Rocket Launch SystemCzech

Upgrade U.S. era M113 APCsSingapore?


40/54

T-54/55 Main Battle Tank

850 T-54-55 and 350 Chinese Type-59 Main Battle Tanks


41/54

Grad Multiple Rocket Launcher


42/54

Short Range Ballistic Missiles?

Scud C ballistic missileReportedly sold by

North Korea


43/54

Sea

Control

Singapore

Strategic

Strike

Seize

Territory

South-East Asia: Developing Military Capability to 2015

Legend: PoorFair

GoodVery Good

Serious shortcomings in ability to meet roles and tasks.Can meet some roles and tasks but has some shortcomings.Can meet most roles and tasks at a basic level.Can meet all roles and tasks comprehensively.

2015 Changing colour shows development from 2003 through to 2015.2003

Defend

TerritoryConstabulary

Malaysia

ThailandIndonesia

Philippines

Vietnam

Burma

BruneiCambodia

Laos


44/54

5. Defence Relations with China

and the United States China

Normalisation of diplomatic relations (1991)

Long-term Cooperative Framework (1999)

looking to the future, boosting good neighborlyfriendship and exploring all-around collaboration

U.S. Recovery of Missing-in-Action (MIA) remainsNormalisation of diplomatic relations (1995) Visit by Prime Minister to U.S. (2005)


45/54

Defence Relations with China

First round of consultations on defensivesecurity (Beijing, April 2005)

Chinese Commission for Science,Technology and National Defence Industrydelegation visits Hanoi (July)

General Phung Quang Thanh, CGS, visitsBeijing (July)


46/54

Ministerial Exchange Visits

Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen, Hanoi, March2000 and Defence Minister Pham Van Tra, Washington,

November 2003


47/54

U.S. Naval Port Visits

USS Curtis

Wilbur,Da Nang,

July 2004

USS Gary,

Saigon, March

2005

USS Vandegrift,

Saigon,

November 2003


48/54

Defence Relations with the U.S.

15th Asia-Pacific Military Medicine Conferenceheld in Hanoi co-sponsored by Vietnam andthe U.S. (May 2005)

Assistant Secretary of Defense forInternational Security Affairs, Peter Rodman,

visits Hanoi (June)

Prime Minister Phan Van Khai visitsWashington, D.C. and meets with PresidentGeorge Bush ( June 21)


49/54

6. Conclusion

Bringing the Military Back In Military as important domestic political actor Potential regional role Priority on naval and air modernisation

South China Sea contingencies Rise of China

balancing bandwagoning hierarchy norm building and regional identity


50/54

Vietnams Defence Diplomacy

Discussion

Questions and Answers


51/54

Military Capability

Maritime Capabilities Maritime Patrol - 48 assorted vessels Anti-Surface Warfare - 13 ships with SSMs Maritime Land Strike - no real capability Anti-Submarine Warfare - no real capability Maritime Air Defence - no ability to coordinate Amphibious Lodgment/Marine Forces Mine Warfare - 10 assorted vessels


52/54

Military Capability

Land CapabilitiesInfantry Forces - 58 Inf DivisionsCombined Arms Ground Forces

3 Mech Inf and 10 Armoured Div, 10 ArtyBde,

Special ForcesLand Force C3I(Command, Control,

Communications and Intelligence)Reserves


53/54

Military Capability

Air Capabilities

Air Defence - MiG-21, SA-2/3 SAMsAA-2/8/10 air to air missiles

Long Range Strike - Su-27, Su-30Close Air Support - Su-22M seriesTransport - An-2, An-26, Yak-40


54/54

Military Capability

Other CapabilitiesChemical and Biological

suspected Saren and mustard gas (1991) Scud B/C Short Range Ballistic Missiles

Information or Knowledge Warfare SIGINTELINT

Radiological and Nuclear (none)

Documents

Thayer Vietnam's Defence Diplomacy 2005