Thayer Vietnam's Regional Role 2006

8/14/2019 Thayer Vietnam's Regional Role 2006

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Vietnams Emerging Regional Role

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to

Junior Officers Management and Strategic

Studies Course Class 4/06Royal Australian Naval CollegeHMAS Creswell

Jervis Bay, ACT, August 31, 2006


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Outline

1.Doi Moi: Twenty Years On2. The Military andDoi Moi3. Vietnams Regional Role


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1. Doi Moi: Twenty Years On

Economic Change

End of central planning Decollectivisation of agriculture Market economy with socialist orientations Encouragement of direct foreign investment Poverty reduction High GDP growth rates


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Doi Moi: Twenty Years On

Social Change

Commercialization of services State control of religion Ethnic minority unrestNegative phenomena Spread of the Internet


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Doi Moi: Twenty Years On

Political Change

Regularisation of politicsNew state Constitution (1992) and Electoral

Laws

Enhancing the role of the NationalAssembly and rule by/of law

Administrative reform of state apparatus Corruption


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Tenth Party Congress April 2006

Nong Duc Manh

re-elected Secretary General


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Corruption

Nam Camcriminal network2003Ministry ofTransport, PMU

18 scandal 2006


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Transparency International

Corruption Index

2001 75th of 91 countries 2002 85th of 102 countries 2003 100th of 233 countries 2004 102nd of 145 countries 2005 107th of 158 countries

Ranked above the Philippines, PNG,Ethiopia, Indonesia, Myanmar


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2. The Military and Doi Moi

Political Role

Defend the country and the socialist regime Dual-role elites (party-military-government) A bloc within the Vietnam Communist

Party and National Assembly

Central Military Party Committee Tong Cuc 2 military intelligence


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Military Delegates

to 10th

Party Congress


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Dual Role Elites

Military delegates to10th National Party

Congress cast ballots

for the party

leadership

Military block onCentral Committee

(~10%)


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General Phung Quang Thanh

Member of the Politburo(April 2006)

Senior LT GEN (2003) Vice Minister of National

Defence and Chief of the

General Staff (2001-06)

Member of the Party CentralCommittee (2001-present)

Commander Military Region 1 Trained in the Soviet Union Minister of NationalDefence (June 2006)


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The Military and Doi Moi

Politburo Resolution No. 2 (1987)Withdrawal from Cambodia and LaosDemobilisationBudget

Disciplinary Problems Collapse of the Soviet Union


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Vietnams Defence Expenditure 1990-02


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Government Spending on Defence


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The Military and Doi Moi

Economic and commercial activities Military-economic zones Military professionalisation Defence diplomacy Limited force modernisation


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White Paper 2004

Vietnam must guard against the danger oflagging further behind economically

Vietnam faces the threat of schemes andploys by external hostile elements in

collusion with internal reactionaries

Disputes on border and maritime territoriesNon-traditional security issues


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Defence Diplomacy

Cold War alignments USSR, Warsaw Pact states, China, Cuba

Non-Aligned Movement Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos,Yugoslavia

Defence relations with more than 60countries (2003)

33 Defence Attaches accredited 22 Defence Attaches posted


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Defence Diplomacy

Accrediting of Defence Attaches Protocol visits Staff College/National Defence Institute

exchanges

Goodwill visitsExternal Relations DepartmentSong and Dance Ensemble

Naval ship visits


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High-Level Exchanges


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Trends in High-Level Exchanges


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Defence Diplomacy

Russian Federation, Belgium, Thailand

North Korea, Laos, Germany


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Density of Defence Exchanges

44 - Laos 17 - India 11 - Singapore 6 - Italy Malaysia Ukraine

36 - China 15 - Philippines 10 - Australia France Indonesia

4 - Poland Slovak

26 - Thailand 13 - Russia 9 - Japan8 - Cuba 3 - Algeria Belgium

Brunei22 - Cambodia 12 - United

States 7 - Myanmar

N Korea

S KoreaAngola,Belarus,Bulgaria, Congo

R, Mozambique,

Netherlands, UK


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Density of High-Level Exchanges

44% ASEAN

20% Traditional Allies

17% Major Powers

China, United States, Japan

8% New Europe

11 % Other Asia, Africa, Middle Eastand Latin America and Others


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Naval Ship Visits, 1990-2005

7 India 6 Australia 5 France 5 United Kingdom 4 Thailand3 South Korea

3 United States 2 Italy

2 Malaysia 2 Russia 1 Canada 1 China 1 Indonesia1 Japan

1 New Zealand


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Memorandum of Understanding

Annual work plans exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.

Address specific bilateral issues Border security (land and maritime) MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay

Combined military activities Medical research Search and Rescue Coordinated naval patrols


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Defence Cooperation Agreements

India (1994 and 2000)

Russia (October 1998) Australia post-1999 United States (October 1996) Other DCAs

Bulgaria, Belgium, South Korea andGermany


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Vietnams Defence Expenditure, 1991-03


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Government Defence Expenditure


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Procurement and

Defence Industry Cooperation Spare Parts Storage Repair and Maintenance Refurbishment and Upgrading Education and Training Research and Development National Defence Industry cooperation Acquisition of new capabilities


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Sales and Servicing Contracts

Russian Federation (1994, 1998, 2003) Ukraine (2002) India (2002) Europe - Bulgaria, Czech, Finland, Poland ASEAN States Singapore Other Suppliers Israel, North Korea


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Air Force Modernization

Upgrade and modernise MiG-21and Su-22fighter/ground attack aircraft

Su-30 preferred air superiority fighterFunding a major constraintMay opt for less expensive Su-22

Upgrade of Su-27s and Su-30s with beyondvisual range air-to-air missiles

Military communications satellite?


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Air Force Modernisation

Czech L-39C Trainers MiG-21 FishbedUpgrades

Su-22 M4 FitterSu-27 UBK Flanker


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4 Su-30 MKKsFulcrums 2003


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Air Defence

S-300PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble) - 2003


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Deterrence

capability inSouth China

Sea


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TarantulClass (Type 1241)

4 acquiredfrom

Russia in

1996-98


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Tarantul3 Corvette

TwoMolnya

1241.8 FAC (M)

delivered in 2005,

eight to be

assembled in

Vietnam


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BPS 500 Fast Attack Craft (M)

2 acquired

1998 BPS 500

now under

production

in Vietnam


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KBO 2000 Corvette

Project 2100 Recently Cancelled


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Yugo-Class Midget Submarine


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Land Force Modernisation

Main Battle TanksFinland 70 (T-54 and T-55)Poland (150 T-72)

Multiple Rocket Launch SystemCzech

Upgrade U.S. era M113 APCsSingapore?


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Grad Multiple Rocket Launcher


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3. Vietnams Regional Role

Political Bureau Resolution No. 13 (1988) 7th National Party Congress (1991) Membership in ASEAN and ARF Directions and Strategies for Defending

Vietnam in the New Era8th Central Committee Plenum (July 2003)


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Vietnams Neighbours

Laos special solidarity andcomprehensive cooperation

internal security,border control, MIAs Cambodia border security, MIAs China border security

Military Region commanders Coordinated naval patrols

Thailand maritime security


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Defence Relations with China

First round of consultations on defensivesecurity (Beijing, April 2005)

Chinese Commission for Science,Technology and National Defence Industrydelegation visits Hanoi (July 2005)

General Phung Quang Thanh, CGS, visitsBeijing (July 2005)


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Defence Relations

with the United States Recovery of Missing-in-Action (MIA)

remains

Normalisation of diplomatic relations(1995) IMET International Military Education

and Training

Visits by Commander Pacific Command(most recent July 2006)


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U.S. Naval Port Visits

USS Curtis Wilbur,

Da Nang, July2004

USS Gary, Saigon,

March 2005

USSPatriotandUSS Salvor,

Saigon, July 2006

USS Vandegrift,

Saigon,

November 2003


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Ministerial Exchange Visits

20002003

2006


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Military Capability

Land CapabilitiesInfantry Forces - 58 Inf DivisionsCombined Arms Ground Forces

3 Mech Inf and 10 Armoured Div, 10 ArtyBde,

Special ForcesLand Force C3I(Command, Control,

Communications and Intelligence)Reserves


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Military Capability

Air Capabilities

Air Defence - MiG-21, SA-2/3 SAMsAA-2/8/10 air to air missiles

Long Range Strike - Su-27, Su-30Close Air Support - Su-22M seriesTransport - An-2, An-26, Yak-40


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Military Capability

Other CapabilitiesChemical and Biological

suspected Saren and mustard gas (1991) Scud B/C Short Range Ballistic MissilesInformation or Knowledge Warfare

SIGINTELINT

Radiological and Nuclear (none)


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Conclusion

Bringing the Vietnamese Military Back In VPA an important domestic political actor Military also a commercial actor Priority on naval, air defence and air force

modernisation

South China Sea contingencies Potential regional role ASEAN Rising China balance not containment


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Future Developments

PNTR status with the U.S. Membership in the World Trade

Organisation

Host to APEC Summit Visit by President George BushNon-permanent membership on UN

Security Council Modest contribution to UN peacekeeping?


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Vietnams Regional Role

Discussion

Questions and Answers

Documents

Thayer Vietnam's Regional Role 2006