The Compound Semiconductor Industry; How Did It Get … · • Amplifiers ‒ 16 power amplifier paths ... • Optical transport: 100 Tbps ... • The overall compound semiconductor

The Compound Semiconductor Industry; How Did It Get Here and Where Is It Going?

Eric Higham

Strategy Analytics

Agenda

• (Brief) Introduction

‒ Strategy Analytics and my coverage area

• Investigate the Compound Semi Market

‒ Definition and setting the stage

• Focus on the RF Market

‒ GaAs/GaN and the drivers

• The Future

‒ Trends and forecasts

• Conclusions

Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 2

Advanced Semiconductor Applications (ASA) Service

• Consumer Electronics

• Cellular handsets

• Wi-Fi

• Satellite & CATV

• Solid-state lighting

• Lasers

• Networks

• Wireless base stations & backhaul

• Fiber transport

• Broadband (wired & wireless)

• VSAT

Tracking Semiconductor Technology to End Applications

3

Technologies

Components

Applications

GaAs GaN

Silicon

SiGeInP

SiC “Other”

Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics

• Automotive Electronics

• Sensing technologies

• Aerospace & Defense

• Radar, EW, Communications

• High Power Electronics

• Medical Electronics

• Instrumentation

Agenda







• The Future


• Conclusions


What IS a Compound Semiconductor?

• Simply put…semiconductors with two or more elements

‒ “III-V” is a common term, but not all inclusive

• Combination of elements is done to achieve a performance advantage

‒ Frequency, power, efficiency, etc.

• Lack the volume/low cost manufacturing ecosystem of silicon


Source: Sumitomo Electric Industries

Source: IntechSource: Wikipedia

Source: CompoundSemiconductor.net

Compound Semiconductor Market Drivers

• Data traffic growth drives the entire market

• CAAGR of mobile data growth is ~70% since 2009!


• Convergence of voice, video and data networks enables the explosive growth in data traffic

7

Compound Semiconductor Demand:

• Supports and enables:

‒ Evolution of wireless, consumer and industrial devices

‒ Next generation wired and wireless networks

‒ Automotive advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)

‒ Defense transition to network-centric battlefield philosophies

‒ Solid-state lighting

‒ High power electronics


The Compound Semiconductor Device Market

• Total compound semi market is estimated at ~$24B

‒ Anticipated to grow to ~$44B in 2020


• LED market is the largest

‒ ~60% of the market revenue

• HPE is the fastest growing

‒ Silicon is the incumbent

• RF growth will be slow

‒ ~25% of the market in 2020

Source: Strategy Analytics

Agenda







• The Future


• Conclusions


GaN Advantages

• Device characteristics provide a host of advantages:

• Higher efficiency means less DC power, less need for cooling

• Higher frequency operation encompasses more applications

• Temperature performance enables electronics closer to the antenna

• Higher power density means higher power output performance

• Or the same power output…but with fewer components

Superior frequency, efficiency, voltage breakdown, speed, temperature, power density, current density

10

Material Properties Si GaAs GaN

Saturation velocity (cm/s) 1 x 107 0.8 x 107 2.5 x 107

Breakdown E-field (MV/cm) 0.3 0.4 3.0

e- mobility (cm2/Vs) 1350 8000 1500

Eg bandgap (eV) 1.1 1.4 3.4

Ft (GHz) FET 20 150 150

Power density (W/mm) 0.2 0.5 >30

Thermal conductivity (W/cm/K) 1.5 0.5 ~2.0Source: Strategy Analytics


Total RF GaN Device Revenue

• GaN revenue jump in 2014 is driven by China LTE infrastructure deployments

• Total revenue CAAGR of ~60% from 2007 - 2015


• Commercial market gaining traction

‒ Dominated by infrastructure

• Defense nurtured the technology

‒ DARPA funding and programs


2015 RF GaN Device Revenue Segmentation

• Commercial RF GaN applications currently accounts for ~60% of revenue

‒ Defense growth will reduce this gap


• Infrastructure is largest segment

• Anticipating strong defense growth

‒ Radar, comms, EW


Historical GaAs Device Revenue

• DoD funding in the 1990s changed the applications

• Wireless Revolution changed the trajectory!


• 11% CAAGR since 2004

• Exceeded $7B for the first time

‒ >$8B including foundry

2014 GaAs Device Revenue Segmentation

• Wireless segment dominates the GaAs device market

‒ Segment accounts for ~80% of total revenue


• Cellular terminals drive revenue

‒ Just about exclusively PAs!


Conclusions (Past & Present)

• Government funding developed the GaAs ecosystem

‒ Performance is the fuel

‒ Commercial applications are the growth engine for the market

• Growth of GaAs drove the growth of other compound semi technologies

‒ InP, SiC, SiGe, GaN all offer performance advantages

‒ Compound semi component industry has grown to ~$24B

• Silicon is the biggest competitive technology

‒ Under fire as the incumbent technology in the HPE market

‒ Capturing share in the RF and LED segments


Agenda







• The Future


• Conclusions


Storm Clouds on the Horizon?

• This is notable because it’s actually smartphone PAs that drive the GaAs industry!


• Handset growth is slowing

‒ ~3% CAAGR to reach ~2.1B in 2020

• Smartphone growth is slowing

‒ ~7% CAAGR 2014 – 2020

‒ ~43% CAAGR 2008 – 2014!


Increasing Complexity in Smartphones

• Switches‒ 73 switch throws‒ 10 discretes + 3 in modules

• Amplifiers‒ 16 power amplifier paths‒ 2 LNAs

• Filters‒ 7 duplexers‒ 26 BPF

• Bands‒ Quad-EDGE‒ W-CDMA: B1, B2, B3, B4, B5, B8

• Sub-bands: 9, 10, 18, 19, 20, 26

‒ TD-SCDMA: B34, B39‒ TD-LTE: B38, B39, B40, B41‒ FD-LTE: B3, B7, B8



The 5G Vision

• “Unlimited access to information and the ability to share data anywhere, anytime by anyone and anything”


Source: Nokia

The Challenge


Source: ITU Recommendation ITU-R M.2083-0, September 2015

Qualcomm/Heavyreading Webinar

Network Architecture Vision

• Many (compound) semiconductor opportunities that revolve around:‒ Better performance‒ Lower cost‒ Higher reliability


Source: Ericsson

• Architectural Pillars• MIMO

• Beamforming

• Wi-Fi

• “Ultra-dense” deployments

• Vehicle-to-vehicle

• M2M (IoT)

• Device-to-device

• Cooperative devices

• Multi-hop communication

Transport Network Vision

• Optical transport: 100 Tbps

• E-band backhaul: 80 Gbps

• Macrocell: 50 Gbps

• Small Cells: 100 Gbps


3.bp.blogspot.com

RF GaN Market Share Forecast

• Commercial RF GaN applications, particularly infrastructure are growing

‒ Infrastructure revenue profile will be a bit uneven


• Infrastructure remains the largest segment

• Fast growth propels defense applications to nearly 50% of the market in 2020

• ~$690M in 2020


2014 GaAs Device Market Share Forecast

• Anticipate slow growth for the GaAs device market

• Silicon will provide a “headwind”


• Wireless will continue to be ~80%

• Cellular terminals will be 50-55% of total


Agenda







• The Future


• Conclusions


Conclusions (Future)

• The overall compound semiconductor market is poised for good growth

‒ ~13% CAAGR will just about double revenue by 2020

• The growth trajectories will not be the same for all segments

‒ LED segment will remain the largest

• GaN-on-silicon will begin making inroads

‒ HPE segment will see the fastest growth for compound semis

• GaN and SiC will offer greatly improved performance capabilities

‒ RF segment will be a bit uneven

• Increasing RF content will offset slowing smartphone growth

• 5G is the wildcard…it will be a growth driver for the semiconductor industry

• But…will this benefit silicon or a compound semiconductor technology??


Thank You!


Eric HighamStrategy Analyticswww.strategyanalytics.comehigham@strategyanalytics.com617-614-0721

Documents

The Compound Semiconductor Industry; How Did It Get … · • Amplifiers ‒ 16 power amplifier paths ... • Optical transport: 100 Tbps ... • The overall compound semiconductor