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The risk assessment model SYNOPS and its approach in frame of a general indicator set for sustainable plant
protection in Germany
Volkmar Gutsche and Jörn Strassemeyer
JKI - Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants,Institute for Technology Assessment in Plant Protection
Stahnsdorfer Damm 81, D-14532 Kleinmachnowe-mail:
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
Background
German National Action Plan (NAP) on Sustainable Use of Plant Protection Products since 2004
German NAP has to be adopted according the EU - Directive establishing a framework for Community action to achieve a sustainable use of pesticides
First national stakeholder conference for NAP – adaption in June 2009 :
->The progress in reaching the targets of NAP has to be measured by a set of indicators
->The indicator set should include existing approaches as well as new definitions
->Compatibility to harmonised EU – indicators should be achieved
small working group is now preparing a first proposal for such indicator set
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
Models:- Risk assessment for earthworms by SYNOPS-model
Models:- Risk assessment for be by SYNOPS-model
Agricultural production
Agricultural income
Terrestrial biodiversity
SoilSoil organisms
Ground- and Surface waterWater organisms
Human healthConsumer Operator
Resident
Surveys (NEPTUN, farm network):-Application index per crop-Application area per pesticideSecondary data analysis of different sources- Infestation pressure
Data analysis and survey results:
- Hazard classification of pesticides for operators
- Number of pesticides and application area per hazard class
Monitoring:- Pollution of groundwater- Pollution of surface water
Monitoring:- Exceeds of MRL‘s (consumer)
Models:- Risk assessment for water organisms by SYNOPS-model
Models:- Risk assessment for the MRL-exceeds by VELS-model
- Risk assessment for operators by HAIR-submodel
Measurements:- Ratio of farmer’s partici-pation in training courses
- Ratio of farmer’s access to performances of advisory service
Measurements:- Number of participants in agri-environmental programmes
P R E S S U R E
S T A T E
(potential) I M P A C T
R E S P O N S E
Targets of national action plan
Draft of indicator set
Monitoring:- Birds in agricultural landscapes
- Specific butterflies- Damage on bees caused by pesticides
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
surface water
orchard
exposition pathways in SYNOPS
drainage
run-off
driftinterception
drift
Load, C(t) sPEC, lPECsoil
surface water
non target plants
surface
water
field margin
riskpotential
earthworm
daphniaalgeafish
bee
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
The model SYNOPS
Toxicity
Exposure calculatedRisk
more or less sophisticated sub-modelsExposition
Toxicity LC50 / NOEC of test organisms earthworm, bee, daphnia, fish, algae
Spray drift (Ganzelmeier Tables + FOCUS functions)Run-Off (Model developed by Lutz 1984, REXTOX, Drips)Drainage (meta-model based on MACRO)Erosion (USLE based model, comparable to FOCUS)
two mainstreams of model approach
Risk assessment for application patterns and GIS-aided regional risk analysis
Tracking risk trends on national level
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
Sales data on the annual volume of active ingredients from:
1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005 (serves as base line – years)
2006, 2007
2008 (in progress)
Compiling of a list of all relevant (registered) potential uses (indications)* and calculation of their application area in the corresponding year according to the procedure of Gutsche & Rossberg (OECD, 1999)
* Indication = use of a pesticide in a certain crop for a certain target (pest) with a registered dose rate to a registered application time/period and, if necessary, applying certain risk mitigation measurements like buffer zone to adjacent surface water courses etc.
= 7857 indicationsnumber of indications herbicides fungicides insecticides
base line 96-05 2131 2241 1429
2006 345 455 158
2007 391 501 206
Tracking risk trends - the database
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
1.) For each potential use (indication) SYNOPS calculates a set of 5 (earthworm, bee, daphnia, fish, algae) risk indices
SYNOPS runs under „worst case“ application conditions:
- The application site is adjacent to a ditch with depth of 0.3 m and width of 1.5 m
- 3 days after application a strong rainfall of 30 mm happens
- The application site has a slope of 3%
- The soil of the application site is loamy with organic carbon content of 1.5%
2.) Each indication gets a weight according to its estimated application area
Weighted mean values per year were calculated for herbicides, fungicides and insecticides separately
Additionally, weighted mean values of the 5 risk indices for the period 1996 - 2005 in total were calculated for herbicides, fungicides and insecticides. They form the base line.
All mean values per year were related to the values obtained for the base line (base line = 100%)
These relative indices for the different test organisms were summarised for the terrestrial and aquatic compartment:Relative risk terrestrial = (risk earthworm + risk bee) / 2 Relative risk aquatic = (risk daphnia + risk fish + risk algae) / 3
3.) Weighted aggregation of risk indices
Tracking risk trends - the SYNOPS processing
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
Tracking risk trends – results herbicides
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
terrestrial risk
aquatic risk
earthworm daphnia fish algae bees
base line 96-05 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2006 84% 147% 143% 36% 68%
2007 70% 89% 89% 36% 68%
5 6 7 8 9 10
earthworm
bees
daphnia
fish
algae
2007
2006
base line 96-05
0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
SYNOPS relative risk index herbicides(average 1996-2000 = 100%)
SYNOPS absolute risk index herbicides
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
terrestrial risk
aquatic risk
5 6 7 8 9 10
earthworm
bees
daphnia
fish
algae
2007
2006
base line 96-05
0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
earthworm daphnia fish algae bees
base line 96-05 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2006 71% 42% 82% 114% 80%
2007 71% 61% 97% 114% 101%
Tracking risk trends – results fungicides
SYNOPS relative risk index fungicides(average 1996-2000 = 100%)
SYNOPS absolute risk index fungicides
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
225%
250%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
terrestrial risk
aquatic risk
5 6 7 8 9 10
earthworm
bees
daphnia
fish
algae
2007
2006
base line 96-05
earthworm daphnia fish algae bees
base line 96-05 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2006 16% 57% 79% 61% 18%
2007 95% 16% 31% 22% 16%
Tracking risk trends – results insecticides
0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
SYNOPS relative risk index insecticides(average 1996-2000 = 100%)
SYNOPS absolute risk index insecticides
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
fruit region Lake Constance
surface_waters_bodensee
area of pome fruit
surface water
orchard
GIS-based application of SYNOPS
SYNOPS calculates the risk potential of all orchards within the considered region.
regional approach– input data for all fields in the considered region
have to be available on field level– the calculated field based risk potentials are then
analysed or aggregated in the spatial dimension
geographical databases + GIS procedures
NEPTUN 2001
NEPTUN 2004
all applications
all applications
NEPTUN 2007all applications
<0.001
0.001 - 0.010
0.010 - 0.050
0.050 - 0.100
0.100 - 0.500
0.500- 1.000
>1.000
GIS based risk assessment with SYNOPS
Geographical Database, ATKIShigh resolution data set on land use and land cover
The average slope is calculated for each field using a digital elevation model (DGM-D).
Long-term precipitation and temperature (1971-2000) is derived from digital climate maps of the German Weather Service on monthly basis
The application strategies are distributed randomly according to a field based survey (NEPTUN)
Fruit crops are distributed randomly accoding to agricultural statistics on community level
PSM-database
SYNOPS
active ingredientdatabase
The main soil types are derived for each field a digital soil map (BÜK1000).
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Cso
il [m
g kg
-1]
0.000
0.004
0.008
0.012
0.016
0.020
Cwa
ter
[mg
l-1
]
NOECtt t
tCT
lPECNOEC
t
t-t365
NOEC
)(
maxspecies
acute LC
sPECETR
50
GIS
-dat
a
GIS-based risk analysisLake Constance
Minimal distance from the field to the edge of the surface water is derived with GIS procedures from ATKIS
field based
risk assessment
region Lake Constancerisk potential for daphnia (ETRdaphnia)
acute risk daphnia
0 - 0.0010.001 - 0.010.01 - 0.10.1 - 1.01.0 - 10.0
surface waters
95% 0.113
90% 0.056
75% Q3 0.018
50% Median 0.007
25% Q1 0.000
10% 0.000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
0 - 0
.001
0.00
1-0.
01
0.01
-0.1
0.1-
11-
10
ETRdaphnia
fre
qu
en
cy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Aggregated risk potentials based on the NEPTUN surveys in 2001, 2004 und 2007
aquatic risk potential 90. Percentile
NEPTUN 2001
NEPTUN 2004
all applications
all applications
NEPTUN 2007all applications
<0.001
0.001 - 0.010
0.010 - 0.050
0.050 - 0.100
0.100 - 0.500
0.500- 1.000
>1.000
0.498
0.190
0.106
0.01
0.1
1
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
year
90th
Per
cent
ile o
f E
TR
aquaticfishalgaedaphnia
acute risk potential fraction of area with ETR>1
NEPTUN 2001
NEPTUN 2004
all applications
all applications
NEPTUN 2007all applications
< 1 %
1 - 2 %
2 - 3 %
3 - 4 %
4 - 5 %
5 - 6 %
6 - 7 %
7- 8 %
8 - 9 %
9 - 10 %
10 -15 %
>15 %
Aggregated risk potentials based on the NEPTUN surveys in 2001, 2004 und 2007
aquatic risk potential 90. Percentile
influence of compliance to buffer zone
requirements
200720042001
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
aq
ua
tic
ris
k (
90
. P
erz
en
tile
)
Aquatic risk of all orchard regions
fruit growing regions (NEPTUN 2004)
Bodensee
Rheinebene
Neckartal / Franken
Rheinland-Pfalz
Niederelbe
Norddeutschland Ost
Havel / Spree / Oder
Elbe Mulde (Sachsen)
mitteld. Obstanbaugebiet
Orchard regions
Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI)Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant
Protection
Thank you for your attention!