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Three Revolutions – Transforming Transportation
June 25, 2018Webinar Registration: ___
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Edward Saltzberg
Managing Director
Security & Sustainability
Forum
Dan Sperling
Director, UC Davis
Institute of Transportation
Studies
Webinar Moderator
Robin Chase
Transportation Entrepreneur, Co-
Founder and Former CEO of
ZipCar
Austin Brown
Executive Director, UC Davis
Policy Institute for Energy, the
Environment and the Economy
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Agenda
1. Opening: Edward Saltzberg, Security and Sustainability Forum
2. Three Revolutions – Panelist Presentations (45 minutes)
Daniel Sperling, Moderator
Robin Chase
Austin Brown
3. Discussion Panel (15 minutes)
4. Audience Q&A: (25 minutes) - Use the box in the Go to Webinar window
5. Panel Summary (2 minutes)
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4
Moderator5
Dr. Daniel Sperling
Director, UC Davis Institute of
Transportation StudiesBlue Planet Prize-winning Professor of Civil
Engineering and Environmental Science and
Policy; lead author of IPCC, sharing 2007 Nobel
Peace Prize
Panel6
Austin Brown
Executive Director,
UC Davis Policy
Institute for Energy,
the Environment and
the Economy
Robin Chase
Transportation
Entrepreneur, Co-Founder
and Former CEO of
ZipCar
Dr. Daniel Sperling
Director, UC Davis Institute of
Transportation Studies
Blue Planet Prize-winning
Professor of Civil Engineering
and Environmental Science
and Policy; lead author of
IPCC, sharing 2007 Nobel
Peace Prize
The Three Transportation Revolutions… a call to action
Daniel Sperling
Distinguished Blue Planet Professor and Founding Director
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Davis
and
Board Member, California Air Resources Board
Security and Sustainability Forum (webinar)
25 June 2018
Today’s Transportation System is Not Sustainable
Cities and Lifestyles are Too Car-Centric
Car-Centric LA
I-105 & I-110 with HOV Flyover
Car-Centric Monoculture is Extraordinarily Expensive and
Resource-Intensive
➢Road Infrastructure Cost
▪ Over $100 billion/yr (US)
▪ Plus other infrastructure costs to support sprawl
➢ Personal Cost
▪ $5000-$9000/year to own and operate a car (US)
• Car sits idle 95% of time (and transit accounts for only 1% of passenger travel)
▪ Total = $1+ trillion/yr (US)
➢Oil
▪ 70% of oil consumption (USA)
▪ $300-$500 billion/yr
➢ Climate Change
▪ 1/3 of GHGs (US)
Minimal “Systems” Innovation for 5+ Decades
Previous Transport “Revolutions”
Movement of People
1. Streetcars (~1890)
2. Automobiles (Oil) (~1910)
3. Airplanes (~1930)
4. Limited access highways (~1930s…1950s)
Movement of Goods
1. Canals (~1800)
2. Railroads (~1830)
3. Trucks (Oil) (~1910)
4. Airplanes (~1930)
5. Containers (~1950)
11
Shared
(pooled)
Electric
(ZEV)
Automated
(connected)
Electrification + Automation + Pooling
(All 3 Needed for Sustainable Transportation)
Electric Vehicles Will Dominate… Not If, But When(battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell electric)
Auto Industry Ready
• Automakers have developed the technology
• Supply chains in place
• Battery costs continuing to drop
Policies in Place
• Strong performance standards in all major markets to reduce GHGs (energy) (though “issues” in one large market)
• ZEV mandates in China and 30% of US
• Strong political declarations for EVs in many cities and some countries
Largest EV Markets in World: China #1, USA #2China accounts for ½ of sales, ¼ of oil displaced (out of 95m b/d today)
Ten
s o
f m
illi
on
s o
f b
/d
BNEF, Long Term EV Outlook, 2018
AVs Will Also Dominate (eventually)
… But Will They Be “Pooled” or Individually Owned?
• Ridehailing companies embrace “pooling”
▪ Lyft, Uber, Didi
▪ Lower price more customers (price elastic) more revenue more profit
• But ….
▪ Will travelers share rides
• …. at what price?
▪ Will Americans (and Europeans and Chinese) give up car ownership
• … under what conditions?
15
Source: Early findings from UC Davis/Berkeley “chauffer” study: Harb, M., Xiao, Y., Circella, G., Mokhtarian, P., & Walker, J., presented at TRB Meeting, Washington D.C., January 8, 2018.
Pooling is Crucial… Huge Increase in VMT With
Individually Owned AVs (“Hell Scenario”)
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0
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30
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60
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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Co
mm
uti
ng
Mar
ket
Shar
e
DRIVE ALONE
CARPOOL
Reality Check …
Carpooling has dropped from 20% to 9% (US commuting)
Will Travelers Embrace “Pooling” and Relinquish Auto Ownership?
NO?!
• Large in-car time savings ($3000-$10,000/year) ($10-30/hr x 300 hours)
▪ Why bother sharing?
• Concerns about:
▪ Personal security (no “adult” in car)
▪ Longer and uncertain trip times
• Functional needs
▪ Families, sports gear, dogs, business/equipment
• Non-functional “needs”
▪ Status and image, entertainment, investment
Yes! If…
• Cars redesigned for privacy and security (passenger-centric)
• Increasingly large disincentives for single-occupant vehicles (and ZOVs)
• Increasingly large incentives for pooling (reg fees, congestion fees, curbspace, HOV lanes…)
First Disruption: TaxisIn US, taxis lost half the market and continuing to decline
Transit data from APTA, Taxi data from US Census, and projections from Schaller Consulting (2018)
Lyft/Uber
Will We Be Prepared for the Disruptions?
Pooling + Electric + Automated = Very Cheap, Clean Mobility
Opportunity Exists for Truly Sustainable Transportation!
Key Issues and Insights… Toward Pooling (and “Pricing”)
• Goal: VMT PMT
• Vision: Transition from car monoculture
• Strategy
1. Create choice
2. Create incentives and disincentives to support pooling and reduced car ownership
3. Help transit coordinate/collaborate with new mobility services
• Single integrated information and payment portal?!
4. Steer AVs to pooling (passenger-centric, incentives/disincentives)
• Large concern
▪ Cities at frontline of 3Rs, but starved for resources... ill-equipped to innovate (US)
▪ Same for transit
Three Revolutions By Daniel Sperling
Use discount code 4SPERLING to save 20%
www.islandpress.org/books/three-
revolutions
Robin Chase
Transportation Entrepreneur,
Co-Founder and Former CEO
of ZipCar
Infrastructure is Destiny
Eisenhower Interstate Highway System 1956
+
Levittown, NY 1947-1951
+
US Netherlands
Km cycled/person/yr
47 864
% Obesity >15 yrs old
36% 12%40 years of Cycle-friendly infrastructure building
HUMAN NATURE(personal infrastructure)
We strongly favor convenience (EASY & CHEAP) economics
TAX & REGULATORY (ECONOMIC) INFRASTRUCTURE
We have underpriced:
● Air pollution
● Congestion
● Curb access (in conditions of scarcity)
● User fees for transportation infrastructure investment (in some countries)
With market pricing misaligned with reality, we are overconsuming car travel.
Over the last 100 years, we have specifically and proactively made personal carseasy and cheap.
Underpriced, Private vehicles as a solution have found their limits, clogging streets, arteries and the atmosphere
Global CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion by Sector
Source: Authors using data from US Census Bureau (2016)Source: Authors using data from IEA (2015)
Source: TomTom Traffic Index (2016)
World’s Most Congested Cities
© 2017 VENIAM, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
≤Our planetary infrastructure
TECHNOLOGYGPS, Internet, Wireless, Smart Phones, e-payment, Open Data, Electric
Batteries
Technology has made sharing easy
Car Sharing Transit Apps E-Hailing and Ride-Sharing
24% of people chose not to walk or bike
What would you do if e-hailing/ridesharing did not exist?
It has also made on-demand consumption and delivery easy and convenient with consequences for city retail, and street and curb use
E-Commerce as a Percent of Retail Shopping
Projections 2015-2021
Source: Statistica.com
2017 2030
60%.............
Enter self-driving cars…making car trips even cheaper (no driver!)
Driverless Car Market Projections:
By 2020…Honda (highway)Hyundai (highway)Toyota (highway)Renault-Nissan (in cities)
By 2021…Audi (fully)BMW (fully)Ford (fully)Volvo (highway)
(Source: techemergence.com, autonew.com)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bHXTWhALz9RRAzyqSQEyP_YqydNw7icw/view?usp=sharing
If we understand that people naturally choose easy & cheap,& INFRASTRUCTURE IS DESTINY
& AVS ARE IMMINENT (AT LEAST IN CITIES)
Over next 5 yearsWe need to specifically & pro-actively rework ourECONOMIC, PHYSICAL & DATA INFRASTRUCTURE
active & shared transport EASY & CHEAP
active & shared transport EASY & CHEAP…
MAKES SENSE!
Today’s personal car trips:75% of trips SPACE INEFFICIENT (single occupancy)45% of trips BIKEABLE < 4 miles (6.5 kms)15% of trips WALKABLE < 1.5 miles (2.5 kms)
& SAFER
We need to align siloed interests into a powerful global collaboration…
Around a common urban vision…
Sustainable, inclusive, prosperous, and resilient cities
depend on transportation that facilitates the safe, efficient, and
pollution-free flow of people and goods,
while also providing affordable, healthy, and integrated mobility
for all people.
City Ecosystem
Land use and buildings
Government revenues
Employment
Environment and energy
The business sector
Urban mobility
Policy
Public Benefit
The endorsers of the SHARED MOBILITY PRINCIPLES include:
Shared Mobility Principles for Livable Cities
1. Plan cities and mobility together2. Focus on moving people, not cars3. Encourage efficient use of space and assets4. Engage stakeholders in decision making5. Design for equitable access6. Transition towards zero emissions7. Seek fair user fees across all modes8. Deliver public benefits via open data 9. Promote integration and seamless connectivity 10. Automated vehicles must be shared
SharedMobilityPrinciples.org
The endorsers of the SMPs include:
#2 Move people, not cars#3 Encourage efficient use of space & assets
AV benefits are differentiated by population
density. AVsPersonal & Electric
Exurban
FAVESFleets of AVs that are Electric & Shared
Urban.
Safety benefits felt here.
Transformed land use (shared) & better air quality (electric) key
benefits here.
#2 Move people, not cars#3 Encourage efficient use of space & assets
60 people/lane/block 40 people/lane/block 12 people/lane/block
#7 Fair user fees across all modesTODAY: Cities express ambivalence
In San Francisco• $110 for a car parked illegally• $500 for an electric scooter parked illegally
In New York City• Personal cars will travel for free in Manhattan• Shared vehicles will be taxed $2.75/trip
<-Continuuuuummmmm->
Interoperability btwn modesCompetition w/in modes
#8 Public benefits via open data
SharedStreets.io
A chance to DO-OVER Cities
Today we have a unique and irreplaceable window of opportunity
• provides a concrete and visible time horizon for action, with• a built-in refreshment of our vehicle stock • a host of focusing problems for all stakeholders
INFRASTRUCTURE IS DESTINYWe have to get this transition right.
To summarize recommendations:
Start rationalizing policy to be consistent across all modes!
Reflecting real COSTS of• tail pipe emissions• Vehicle space efficiency (per square meter, with benefits for increased occupancy)• Congestion charging or reallocation of public rights of way to get more throughput of
people.
Standard DATA & reporting
EQUITY & ACCESS accommodations
Austin Brown
Executive Director, UC
Davis Policy Institute for
Energy, the Environment
and the Economy
The Three Transportation Revolutions… a policy roadmap informed by research
Austin Brown, Ph.D.
Executive Director
UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and the
Economy
Security and Sustainability Forum (webinar)
25 June 2018
Today’s Transportation System is Not Sustainable
… and New Mobility is no Panacea
New Roles for PolicymakersPolicy Level Traditional Roles Example New Policy Needs
Federal • Provide transportation funding.
• Regulate the safety of the vehicle.
• Define jurisdictions. Support
modernization of transit funding.
• Regulate the “driver” when it is the
vehicle.
State • Set rules for operation, driver
licensing, insurance, and liability.
• Testing, registration and use of
automated vehicles.
• Set operational rules, incentives for
pooling and efficient operation.
• Modernize insurance and liability
rules.
City and Regional • Build and maintain infrastructure.
• Manage transit systems.
• Price empty or single occupant miles,
and access to congested areas.
• Modernize transit.
• Set rules for data sharing and use.
Example Research-Driven Policy OptionsTopic Research Shows… Policy Options
Data • We don’t know the range of
impacts of new mobility systems.
• Establish reasonable sharing
requirements.
• Develop data management plans and
systems.
Infrastructure • Charging needs will be different for
shared electric fleets.
• What we build will define how
people choose to travel.
• Plan infrastructure to advance public
goals.
• Account for new technology in
planning.
Emissions • Automation can increase VMT and
potentially emissions.
• Ensure most automated vehicles are
shared and electric.
Transit • In the current policy environment,
new mobility competes with transit.
• Modernize transit to leverage, not
compete with, new mobility.
Pricing • The user doesn’t always pay in the
current system.
• Services that are seen as “free”
are tough to price.
• Get pricing frameworks in place now.
• Base pricing on public impacts
(incentivize pooling).
Can’t we Just Wait and See? The Risk of “Free”
The User Doesn’t Always Pay Today
Priced Unpriced / Partially
Priced
Vehicle Infrastructure Use
Fuel Congestion
Accidents (via insurance) Parking
Time Pollution
Last Thoughts
• The transportation system could be much better.
• Safety, congestion, pollution, equity, efficiency, economic opportunity
• New technologies and business models are a risk and an opportunity.
• No one knows how long this will take. We have to talk about what we will demand from our transportation system.
• This is a unique time to get the policy framework in place to get benefits from automated vehicles (and minimize unintended consequences).
• Need all 3 Revolutions
• The role of public policy is to help us do the things that are hard but are still a good idea.
62
3 Revolutions Policy Initiative (at UC Davis)
Platform to engage governments, industry, NGOs, other researchers
Shared
(pooled)
Electric
(ZEV)
Automated
(connected)
Panel Discussion and Q&A64
Austin Brown
[email protected] Chase
http://www.robinchase.org
Dan Sperling
Three
Revolutions
Use discount code
4SPERLING to save 20%
https://islandpress.org/books/
three-revolutions
Three Revolutions – Transforming Transportation
June 25, 2018Webinar Registration: ___
Access the Free SSF Webinar Archives
Subscribe for Webinar Alerts
www.ssfonline.org
Edward Saltzberg
Managing Director
Security & Sustainability
Forum
Dan Sperling
Director, UC Davis
Institute of Transportation
Studies
Webinar Moderator
Robin Chase
Transportation Entrepreneur, Co-
Founder and Former CEO of
ZipCar
Austin Brown
Executive Director, UC Davis
Policy Institute for Energy, the
Environment and the Economy
