Transportation (Roads) Nairobi County

8/13/2019 Transportation (Roads) Nairobi County

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JICA STUDY TEAMFor The Project on Integrated Urban Development MasterPlan for the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya

The Project on Integrated Urban Development Plan for

The City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya

4th Thematic Technical Working Group

13th Nov 2013

Road and Urban Transport Sector

1

1. Progress of the Study

2. Future Transport Network Plan

1) Alternative Plans

2) Road Network Plan

3) Public Transport Network Plan

3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result1) General Methodology

2) Result of Demand Forecast

4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast

5. Staging Plan

1) Basic Strategy

2) Road Development Plan

3) Public Transport Development Plan

4) Demand Forecast and Evaluation of Staging Plan6. Conclusion and Recommendation

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1. Progress of the Study

1. Progress of the Study 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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1) Alternative Plans

The following Alternative Plans are analyzed to establish network.

Do-nothing Case:Future (2030) traffic demand to present network

Case 0:On-going ProjectFuture traffic demand on existing network and on-goingprojects**Refer to next page.

Case 1: Road Development Oriented Case

2006 Road Networked reinforced by future traffic demandand land use plan

Case 2: Utilization of Commuter Rail Case

Future road network with Commuter Railway networkCase 3: Introduction of Selective MRTS Case

Case 2+selective/modified MRTS network where demandconcentrates


4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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*On-going ProjectsThe following projects are included in the on-going projects. Expanding and upgrading of the Northern Corridor Road including

the Elevated highway over the Uhuru Highway

Construction of Southern Bypass Road Construction of Missing Link Roads financed by EU Dualling of Outer Ring Road Construction of Western Ring Roads Widening of Ngong Road from Kenyatta Ave. intersection to

Dagoretti Widening of Juja Road Upgrading of Langata Road of KWS Gate-Bomas Junction Section

2. Future Transport Network Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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a) Basic Policy for Road Network Plan

Basic network shall be 2006 M/P (NUTRANS) andreinforced in the following aspects:

Strengthen circumferential/radial (C/R) network

system. Strengthen radial road network connecting

surrounding area of Nairobi.(Necessary capacity will be estimated by demandforecast.)

Development of new road required by the land useplan.

Strengthen east-west axis roads

Traffic assignment of future traffic demand toexisting road(Do-nothing Case) will be analyzedand necessary capacity will be adopted.

2) Road Network Plan

4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan

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b)RoadNetworkProposedbyNUTRANS

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c)ResultofTrafficAssignmentofDonothingCase2030trafficdemandtopresentnetwork

Source: JICA Survey Team (JST) VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all t e of vehicles


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VCR Situation

-1.0Free flow. Trafficcongestion does notappear.

10-1.25

Traffic congestionmay appear at apeak hour.

1.251.50

Traffic congestionappears at a peakhour.

1.50- Traffic congestionmay appear all day.

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d) Evaluation of Demand Forecast of Alternative 0

Mombasa Rd Waiyaki Way shows VCR over 1.50. Thika Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Outer Ring Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Juja Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Jogoo Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Langata Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Ngong Rd. shows partially VCR over 1.50. Eastern Bypass shows VCR over 1.50.

Widening of Langata Rd to 6-lanes. Widening of Jogoo Rd to 6-lanes. Widening of Eastern Bypass to 4-lanes. Introduction of MRTS to over capacity roads. Especially on-going

project roads.

In addition to the road network proposed by NUTRANS, the followingmeasures are required in future road network.


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2. Future Transport Network Plan Road Network 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

e) Future Road Network in 2030

Remark: Route of the circumferential road C2 was altered considering its feasibility. 10

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3) Public Transport Network Plan

a) Commuter Rail Network Proposed by NUTRIP


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Legend

Bus Rapid Transit

Light Rail Transit

Metro Rail

Commuter RailTransit Hub

Transit Terminal

Transit Interchange

c) Public Transport Network Proposed by MRTS


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d) Evaluation of Priority Corridor


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e) Selected Priority Corridors and Routes

LRT circular route is

proposed in order todecrease the number ofvehicles going into CBD andmake the CBD NMT area.


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Viaduct-1

Viaduct-2

New Bus Terminal

g)Terminal Plan

Development of new bus/matatu terminal in the railway city isproposed to alleviate the congestion at the present terminal.

Inter-city bus terminals are proposed at the outskirt of urban area.

Those terminals also assist the creation of sub-centers.

Concept of new terminalin the railway city


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1) General Methodology : Four-step-method

Estimation of Future Population, etc.

Trip Generated and Attracted

Trip Distribution

Modal Split

Trip Assignment

Future Traffic Volume

The trip generated and attracted volume by zone isforecast from the trip production.

OD table which set trip generated and attracted volumeto an Origin/Destination is calculated.

The traffic among zones is split by transportation mode.

OD table by modal split is assigned to the transportationnetwork

Trip Production The purpose-oriented trip produced in the overall area isforecast.

Person Trip Survey

3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result

3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles


ii)AssignmentofFutureTrafficDemand(2030)toExistingNetwork(2013)

b) Vehicle Assignment Result

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Source: JICA Study Team (JST)



iii)Alternative0:OngoingProject VehicleAssignment


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iv)Alternative1:RoadDevelopmentOrientedCase VehicleAssignment



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v) Alternative2:Utilizationof CommuterRailCase VehicleAssignment

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vi)Alternative3:IntroductionofSelectiveMRTSCase VehicleAssignment

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c) Public Transport Assignment Result

i)Alternative2:Utilizationof CommuterRailCase PublicTransport Assignment

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ii)Alternative3:IntroductionofSelectiveMRTSCase PublicTransportAssignment


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ii)2Alternative3:IntroductionofSelectiveMRTSCase PublicTransportAssignment

Scaled up


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Alternative YearVehicle-km TotalPCU-km000)

Vehicle-hours TotalPCU-HourAverageSpeedkm/h)

AverageVCRVolumeCapacityRatio)Existing Case 2013 17,780 431,690 41.2 0.54

Do Nothing Case 2030 39,110 1,692,480 23.1 1.19

0 On-going ProjectCase

2030 37,670 1,173,180 32.1 1.02

1 Road DevelopmentOriented Case

2030 36,490 929,850 39.2 0.85

2 Utilization ofCommuter Rail Case

2030 35,090 880,110 39.9 0.81

3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS Case

2030 30,540 725,460 42.1 0.71


a)ResultinStudyArea



1) MajorIndicesbyVehicleAssignment

4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

b)ResultinNairobiCity1) MajorIndicesbyVehicleAssignment




Do Nothing Case 2030 25,320 1,254,120 20.2 1.60

0 On-going ProjectCase

2030 25,520 805,560 31.7 1.32

1 Road DevelopmentOriented Case

2030 24,830 621,140 40.0 1.05

2 Utilization ofCommuter Rail Case 2030 23,790 582,600 40.8 1.003 Introduction of

Selective MRTS Case2030 19,450 433,330 44.9 0.82

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2) Congestion Ratio by Vehicle Assignment


a)ResultinStudyArea


Unit : km

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CongestionRatio Existing in2013 Do Nothingin 2030 Alternative 0in 2030 Alternative 1in 2030 Alternative 2in 2030 Alternative 3in 2030-0.8 1,114.7 563.5 770.2 887.2 908.2 1,010.4

0.8 - 1.0 116.4 199.7 134.8 178.7 193.3 212.81.0 - 1.2 106.9 151.9 120.3 155.7 151.7 136.41.2 - 1.5 84.1 131.3 188.2 163.8 166.1 110.8

1.5 - 29.2 405.0 272.3 133.3 99.3 48.3TOTAL 1,451.4 1,451.4 1,485.8 1,518.7 1,518.7 1,518.7

76.8%

38.8%

51.8%

58.4%

59.8%

66.5%

8.0%

13.8%

9.1%

11.8%

12.7%

14.0%

7.4%

10.5%

8.1%

10.3%

10.0%

9.0%

5.8%

9.0%

12.7%

10.8%

10.9%

7.3%

2.0%

27.9%

18.3%

8.8%

6.5%

3.2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Existing

2013

DoNothingCase

2030

Alternative0

2030

Alternative1

2030

Alternative2

2030

Alternative3

2030

0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5



Unit : km

2) Congestion Ratio by Vehicle Assignment b)ResultinNairobiCity

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CongestionRatio Existing in2013 Do Nothingin 2030 Alternative 0in 2030 Alternative 1in 2030 Alternative 2in 2030 Alternative 3in 2030-0.8 510.2 171.1 243.3 329.6 343.5 450.6

0.8 - 1.0 81.0 69.2 81.8 127.6 144.5 151.41.0 - 1.2 69.5 80.6 87.2 109.9 117.1 107.61.2 - 1.5 62.3 85.8 139.1 143.3 131.4 83.9

1.5 - 28.1 344.5 227.4 97.6 71.4 14.5TOTAL 751.2 751.2 778.9 807.9 807.9 807.9

67.9%

22.8%

31.2%

40.8%

42.5%

55.8%

10.8%

9.2%

10.5%

15.8%

17.9%

18.7%

9.3%

10.7%

11.2%

13.6%

14.5%

13.3%

8.3%

11.4%

17.9%

17.7%

16.3%

10.4%

3.7%

45.9%

29.2%

12.1%

8.8%

1.8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Existing

2013

DoNothingCase

2030

Alternative0

2030

Alternative1

2030Alternative2

2030

Alternative3

2030

0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5

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- Comparing the indices of Alternative 0 to 3, vehicle-km,vehicle-hours and average VCR decrease due to the

development of Mass Transit.

- Development of roads cannot solve the traffic congestionas shown in p.21. Reinforcement of mass transit andintroduction of new transit system are requisite.

- By reinforcement of commuter rail and introduction of BRTto 6 corridors, traffic congestion is eased especially in theeastern area of city centre.

- As the result, Alternative 3 is recommended solutionagainst the future increasing traffic demand.

3) Evaluation of Alternatives


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1) Basic Strategy

5. Staging Plan

Target of road and urban transport1) Network in coordination with land use2) Network for world class mobility

1st Phase

Present to 2018

2nd Phase

2019 to 2023

3rd Phase

2024 to 2030

Network in

coordination

with Land

Use

Study/technical

assistance for

development of

infrastructure in

Railway City

Development of

infrastructure in

Railway City

Network

development to

connect sub-

centres

Network for

world class

mobility

Improvement of

network to solve

existing issues.

Institutional

arrangement for

strengthening public

transport

Introduction of MRTS

to pilot corridors.

Development of road

corridors to introduce

MRTS

Strengthening of

circumferential roads

to form the C/R

network

Expand

introduction of

MRTS to plural

corridors

Establishment of

C/R network

system

5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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Short Term (-2018) Road Network



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Medium Term (-2023) Road Network



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Long Term (-2030) Road Network



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Medium Term (-2023) Public Transport Network



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Long Term (-2030) Publ ic Transport Network



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1) Result of Modal Split Forecast


4) Demand Forecast and Evaluation of Staging Plan


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Alternative Year WALK PRIVATE BUS NewTransport RAIL TOTALExisting 2013 3,090,103 916,624 2,754,489 - 14,006 6,775,222

3Introduction of

Selective MRTS 2018 3,246,051 1,289,796 3,281,824 - 14,416 7,832,087

3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS

2023 3,606,326 1,506,186 3,564,101 - 181,736 8,858,349

3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS

2030 3,951,711 1,767,773 4,062,046 45,692 190,456 10,017,678

45.6%

41.4%

40.7%

39.4%

13.5%

16.5%

17.0%

17.6%

40.7%

41.9%

40.2%

40.5%

0.2%

0.2%

2.1%

1.9%

0.5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2013

Alternative3

2018

Alternative3

2023

Alternative3

2030

WALK PRIVATE BUS RAIL NewTransport

Unit : Trips

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Source: JICA Survey Team (JST)VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles

i) Existing in 2013

2) Vehicle Assignment Result


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ii) Alternative 3 in 2018



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iv) Alternative 3 in 2023



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v) Alternative 3 in 2030



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ii) Alternative 3 in 2023

3) Public Transport Assignment Result


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iii)-1 Alternative 3 in 2030



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v) Alternative 3 in 2023 (Scaled up)



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vi) Alternative 3 in 2030 (Scaled up)



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i) Result in Study Area2) Major Indices by Traffic Assignment





2018 24,170 618,900 39.1 0.69


2023 27,000 680,230 39.7 0.72


2030 30,540 725,460 42.1 0.71



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ii) Result in Nairobi City2) Major Indices by Traffic Assignment





2018 16,210 424,160 38.2 0.92


2023 18,040 444,960 40.6 0.90


2030 19,450 433,330 44.9 0.82


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i) Result in Study Area3) Congestion Ratio by Traffic Assignment


Unit : km


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76.8%

66.8%

67.1%

66.5%

8.0%

10.9%

9.9%

14.0%

7.4%

6.8%

8.2%

9.0%

5.8%

8.8%

7.6%

7.3%

2.0%

6.6%

7.2%

3.2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Existing

2013

Alternative3

2018

Alternative3

2023

Alternative3

2030

0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5

CongestionRatio Existing in2013 Alternative 3in 2018 Alternative 3-1 in 2023 Alternative 3-2 in 2023 Alternative 3in 2030-0.8 1,114.7 989.4 980.4 1,004.1 1,010.4

0.8 - 1.0 116.4 161.4 147.2 148.7 212.81.0 - 1.2 106.9 101.1 127.9 122.3 136.41.2 - 1.5 84.1 130.9 129.0 113.9 110.8

1.5 - 29.2 98.1 111.7 107.1 48.3TOTAL 1,451.4 1,480.9 1,496.2 1,496.2 1,518.7

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ii) Result in Nairobi City3) Congestion Ratio by Traffic Assignment


Unit : km


CongestionRatio Existing in2013 Alternative 3in 2018 Alternative 3-1 in 2023 Alternative 3-2 in 2023 Alternative 3in 2030-0.8 510.2 389.8 403.4 419.0 450.6

0.8 - 1.0 81.0 122.6 108.6 116.9 151.41.0 - 1.2 69.5 77.7 106.5 95.9 107.61.2 - 1.5 62.3 100.9 100.9 93.1 83.9

1.5 - 28.1 83.0 69.9 64.3 14.5TOTAL 751.2 773.9 789.3 789.3 807.9

67.9%

50.4%

53.1%

55.8%

10.8%

15.8%

14.8%

18.7%

9.3%

10.0%

12.2%

13.3%

8.3%

13.0%

11.8%

10.4%

3.7%

10.7%

8.1%

1.8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Existing

2013

Alternative3

2018

Alternative3

2023

Alternative3

2030

0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5

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6. Conclusion and Recommendation 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

6. Conclusion and Recommendation

General1. In the short term and medium term, traffic condition will

worsen because improvement of network cannot catch up the

increasing traffic demand.2. Under the condition that the proposed plan is implemented,

transport condition will be improved in the target year. To thisend, improvement of public transport network as well as roadnetwork is essential to realize future transport network.

Road Network1. Improvement of Mombasa Rd-Waiyaki Way is crucial project

for the whole Nairobi city. According to the analysis of the

study, viaduct over Nyayo Stadium round about is necessary toreduce congestion. (See P.42)

2. Entry of heavy vehicles inside the area surrounded by eastern,northern and southern bypass shall be restricted after thecompletion of southern bypass.

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Public Transport Network1. In order to materialize the MRTS plan, not only the physical

infrastructure but also institutional framework, especiallyestablishment of operator, is basically requested.

2. Obtaining general consensus for the improvement of transport

network among the passengers and operators of bus/matatu isalso requested.

Short Term MeasuresResult of traffic demand forecast shows the traffic congestionworsen in the short term and medium term . To cope with the issue,various measures should be undertaken.

1. System signal controlIntegrated Urban Surveillance System (IUSS) is now introducedto CBD area. But traffic congestion occurs in wider area,especially along the radial trunk road in the city, system signalcontrol in the whole city area is expected.

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2. Introduction of bus-exclusive lane.Even before introduction of BRT, bus exclusive lane is effectiveto enhance the use of public transport.

3. Staggered working hours

In the morning peak, more than 20% of private car arrival isfrom 7:00 to 8:00. But the before and after the peak hour,traffic volume decreases to only 5%. Staggered working hourscan use the transport facilities more efficiently.

4. Streamline the fleet CarrierIn the information age, volume of commodity has becomesmaller but frequency has become high. Introduction ofcooperating distribution system is highly required to decreasethe number of vehicle trips in the business area.

5. Relocation of Bus terminalsAlong with the land use plan for development of sub-centersin the outskirts area, disposition of bus terminals is expected.These terminals will function as the transfer terminal frommatatu to large bus.


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Documents

Transportation (Roads) Nairobi County