Water Resources 101 Arizona’s Municipal: Water Future

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Using Water In Arizona

Arizonas Municipal:

Water FutureWater Resources 101Slide # of 34Arizonas Municipal Water FutureQuestions for the near and long-term:

Where will our water be used?

Where will it come from?

When will we run out?

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Water Resource Planning DriversWater Planning in the Western States:Growing populationDrought and climate changeOveruse of groundwater suppliesEndangered species concernsRiver ecosystem protectionOver-appropriationCompeting Uses

Overview of Water Planning in Western StatesNew Mexico Office of the State EngineerFebruary 2009Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Water Planning in Western States1n passing the state water planning authorizing legislation (NMSA72-14-3.1), the New Mexico legislature recognized the importance ofwater planning as a strategic management tool, requiring not only thedevelopment of the first New Mexico State Water Plan (SWP), but alsothat the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer and Interstate StreamCommission review the SWP every five years and update the plan asneeded. Decisions regarding how to proceed with future New Mexicowater planning efforts and SWP updates can benefit from understandinghow other western states have dealt with similar water planning issues.Accordingly, this overview summarizes some basic information regardingwater planning in western states

3Status and TrendsArizonas population will continue to grow and spreadClimate change may impact supply reliabilityNear-TermExisting Supplies will become fully utilizedNew water transfer projects will be implementedLong-TermNext bucket will take decades to plan/implementWhat is out there?What steps are being taken? Planning + Investment = ReliabilityWater Resources 101Slide # of 34Wheres the Demand?Red Dot maps (source: Maricopa Association of Governments)2010 through 2040Population projections converted to demands for water

How does projected water demand compare to water availability?Water Resources 101Slide # of 342010

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Population GrowthWater Resources 101Slide # of 34Population & Municipal Demand TrendsTotal State population projected to grow from 6 million to 12.8 million by 2050Municipal water demand to increase by 110% - to a total of almost 3 MAFRegional NotesPinal County projected to grow by 400%Water usage rates not necessarily intuitive: highest per capita use in Yuma County at 250 GPCDState-wide municipal water use still dominated by three-county CAP service area: 85% of total in 2050Water Resources 101Slide # of 34

Climate Change in the NewsDo we need to know the cause to plan for the effects?Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Climate Change DriversRapidly growing population in all the wrong places east, central and west coastal areas and desert.Aging infra-structure that is stressed to provide either water supply or energy supply during periods of even moderate climate deviation

Urban Heat Islands (UHI) associated with large population areas are a real man-made climate change impact.Beyond Stationarity Climate changes due to natural variability are far beyond 30-yr climate design assumptions.Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Spaghetti Planning?

IPCC 4 multi-model ensembleWater Resources 101Slide # of 34Cone of UncertaintyClimate modeling suggests natural variability explains little for future climateNatural VariabilityTimeClimate Model ProjectionsCone of Climate Uncertainty Waage, 2009Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Changes ahead

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Wheres the Surface Water?Salt/Verde System & SRP

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Wheres the Surface Water?Colorado River & CAP

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34

Wheres the Groundwater?AMAs & BasinsWater Resources 101Slide # of 34GroundwaterAvailabilityExtra: more water available after 200 yearsModerate: some water, but not a lotRisk: about to run outEmpty: overdraft will occur if not carefully managed

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Groundwater AvailabilityDark Red: Stressors are causing overdraft conditionsWhite: Projected stressors are not causing problems

Opportunities for inter-basin transfers & new pipelines?

Opportunities for shifting projected populations based upon water availability?

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34What About Reclaimed?CurrentLandscape and golf course irrigationGroundwater recharge Wetlands, wildlife habitat, stream augmentationIndustrial / power plant cooling processesSurface irrigation of orchards and vineyardsVehicle washing

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Supply Augmentation and Demand ManagementConservationWater HarvestingGray waterSystem EfficiencyBalanced Water SupplyGroundwaterSurface WaterReclaimed WaterHomesCommercialLossesIndustryParksNew SuppliesWater Resources 101Slide # of 34So, What are Some of the Current Plans and Possibilities to Meet Demands?Water Resources 101Slide # of 34

Proposed GroundwaterTransfersRed Gap RanchBig ChinoMcMullen, Butler, and HarquahalaBlack MesaBrackish Supplies

Red Gap RanchBig ChinoBlack Mesa PipelineWilcox BasinMcMullen, Butler, and HarquahalaYuma Brackish GWWater Resources 101Slide # of 34Reclaimed Water ProspectsEffluent exchangesCAGRD purchasesIndian water settlementsGrowing reclaimed water service areas

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Surface Water ConceptsC.C. Cragin in Payson (East Clear Creek Basin)Metro Water District, Marana, Oro Valley, and Flowing Wells Irrigation District (Allocated CAP)Green Valley, Sahuarita, and Surrounding Interests (Allocated and Unidentified CAP)Sierra Vista CAP Extension (Unidentified CAP)Lake Powell Pipeline in Northern Arizona (Unidentified Colorado River Water)

Colorado River/CAP are Fully AllocatedWater Resources 101Slide # of 34Whats Next?Allow/encourage water availability to influence where development occurs?Conservation by design (increase the way infrastructure shapes water use)?Changes to rules/regulations to increase Arizonas flexibility to meet water demands?Move water from where it is, to where it needs to be large water transfer projectsWhat about the long-term?Developing the Next BucketWater Resources 101Slide # of 34Augmenting the States Supplies:The Next Bucket(s)Surface WaterADD WaterReclaimed WaterNew usesIndirect Potable ReuseSeawater DesalinationSalmon, Catfish, and Polar Bears?

What supplies areout there?Water Resources 101Slide # of 34ADD WaterCAP created Project Acquisition, Development and Delivery (ADD)WaterResponse to its 2006 Strategic Plan to: Establish a collaborative process Encourage fair competition Eliminate perceptions of unfair advantageDetermine when new supplies need to be acquired and what entities get those supplies

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34

Reclaimed Water

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Seawater DesalinationMexico, California, or both?TechnologiesConceptual Study at Rocky Point

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Grand DesignsSalmon?Importation from the Yukon and/or Columbia RiversCatfish?The Mississippi River BasinPolar Bears?What about towing icebergs (get them while they last!)

Water Resources 101Slide # of 34Arizonas Municipal Water FutureQuestions for the near and long-term:

Where will our water be used?State-wide, but 85% in Maricopa, Pinal, and PimaWhere will it come from?Groundwater, Surface Water, Recycling, and BeyondWhen will we run out?

When we decide to stop planning and fail to invest in our water infrastructureAnswersWater Resources 101Slide # of 34