EIA’s April 2005 Analysis of Modeled NCEP Recommendations
Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy AdministratorEnergy Information Administration
Presented at:National Commission on Energy Policy Workshop
September 1, 2005Washington, D.C
Background
• In December 2004, Senator Bingaman requested that EIA provide an analysis of the impacts of the NCEP policy recommendations
• EIA modeled some, but not all, of the NCEP regulatory and incentive programs and performed sensitivity analysis to consider alternative technology cost and availability scenarios
• The baseline for the analysis was the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case, which does not include programs in the recently enacted energy bill.
Cases Considered in EIA’s Analysis
REF =AEO2005 Reference Case
CAFE = REF +NCEP CAFE program(w/ details provided by Bingaman staff)
HiTechAEO2005 HiTech Case
Cap-Trade = REF +NCEP cap and trade program for greenhouse gases
(GHGs) including safety valve
No Safety = Cap-Trade w/o safety valve
Bldg-Std = REF + building/appl standards
NCEP = All modeled policiesNCEP-HiT
HiTech + NCEP
Incent = REF + tax incentives and Deployments
• Today’s briefing focuses on shaded cases• Full report at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/bingaman/index.html
Covered Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Three Cases,2002-2025 (million metric tons of CO2-equivalent)
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Cap-Trade
Reference
NCEP
Emissions Target
Emission Reductions by Category in Three Cases,2015 and 2025 (million metric tons of CO2-equivalent)
0
250
500
750
1000
2015 2025 2015 2025
Other Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide
NCEP Cap-Trade
Carbon Dioxide Reductions by Sector in Two Cases,2015 and 2025 (million metric tons carbon dioxide)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2025 2015 2025
Commercial
Transportation
Residential
Electric Power
Industrial
NCEP Cap-Trade
Electricity Generation by Fuel in Three Cases, 2025(billion kilowatthours)
0
1000
2000
3000
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable
2003 Cap-Trade
Reference NCEP
Cumulative Generating Capacity Additions by TechnologyType, 2004-2025 (gigawatts)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ConventionalCoal
Coal IGCC Gas CombinedCycle
Nuclear Renewables
NCEP Cap-Trade
Reference
Oil Consumption in Four Cases, 2003-2025(million barrels per day)
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Cap-Trade Reference
NCEP
CAFE
Total Natural Gas Consumption in Three Cases,2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
22
24
26
28
30
32
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
ReferenceCAP-TRADENCEP
NCEP
Reference
Cap-Trade
Total Coal Consumption in Three Cases,2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
22
24
26
28
30
32
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
ReferenceCAP-TRADENCEP
Reference
Cap-Trade
NCEP
Emission Permit Prices in Three Cases, 2009-2025(2003 dollars per metric ton of CO2-equivalent)
0
10
20
30
40
2010 2015 2020 2025
Cap-TradeNCEP
No-Safety
Safety Valve Price
Electricity Prices in Three Cases, 2003, 2010, 2015, and 2025(2003 cents per kilowatthour)
0
2
4
6
8
2003 2010 2015 2025
NCEPCap-Trade
Ref
Impacts on the Consumer Price Index for Energy,2003-2025 (percent change from reference)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025
NCEP
Cap-Trade
Impacts on Real GDP and Consumption per Household
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025
NCEP
Cap-Trade
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2015 2020 2025 Average
NCEP
Cap-Trade
Real GDP(percent change from reference)
Loss in Consumption per Household(2003 dollars per household)
Total Primary Energy Consumption in Four Cases,2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
90
100
110
120
130
140
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
HiTech
Reference
NCEP
NCEP-HiTech
Emission Permit Prices in Two Cases, 2009-2025(2003 dollars per metric ton of CO2-equivalent)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2015 2020 2025
NCEP
NCEP-HiTech
Safety Valve Price