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SmartCitySolutionandImplementationAUSTSummerCourse2016
Chapter1:Worldchallenges&RoleoftheCity
Q1:Majorworldchallenges?
Q2:RoleoftheCity?
2Questions
1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Naturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability
Majorworldchallenges
1.WorldPopulationGrowth
UNHigh
UNMedium
UNLow
10Billions
16Billions
6Billions
WorldPopulationGrowth
Consequencesofthepopulationgrowth
Increasedemandfor:• Naturalresources(Energy,water,rawmaterials…)• Food
• Constructions(housing,services,industry,…)• Infrastructures(roads,energy,water,
communication,municipalwastes,..)
Increasedemandforservices:- Education,- Health,- Transportation- Culture,Entertainment,- Customizedservices(oldpeople,..)
Consequencesofthepopulationgrowth
1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Naturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability
Majorworldchallenges
Resources:• Water• Energy• Air• Rawmaterials
2.Naturalresources
Availabilitytoconsumers• Quantity• Quality• Transport/Logistic• Accessibility(poverty)
2.Naturalresources
Majormenaces• Worldpopulationgrowth• Limitedresources• Overexploitation
2.Protectionofnaturalresources
• Pollution• Provisionsecurity
Energychallenges
OECD:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment
OECD35members
EnergysupplySecurity
Otherblackout:• Italy(2003):
$55billions• Indonesia(2005)
$100billions
USBlackout(2003)• 50Millionpeople• 24hoursforfullrecovery• Cost:$6to$10billion
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2013/08/30/blackout-risk-tool-puts-price-tag-on-power-reliability/
“Ourgridsareoldandourequipmentisaging,”saidRobinLuo,vicepresidentandblackoutmodelprojectmanageratHartfordSteamBoiler.
US,theyearlycostofelectricaloutages=$150B
WaterChallengesstressevolution
Source:LeMondediplomatique
(%Waterwithdrawalofthetotalavailablewater)Waterstress
Lackofinfrastructures:1billionoftheworldpopulationdonothaveaccesstodrinkingwaterservice(healthrisk,..)
WaterChalenges
WaterChalengesLackofinfrastructures:2.4billionoftheworldpopulationdonothaveaccesstosewagewaterservice(healthandfloodrisks,..)
Waterleakage:• 20%ofthewatersupply• insomecitiesabout40%
1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Protectionofnaturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability
Majorworldchallenges
Pollution- Air- Water- Soils
3.Pollution
Origin:- Buildings- Transport- Industry- Agriculture
3.PollutionMenaces:• Health• Lifequality• Biodiversity
• Climatechange/GlobalWarming
AirpollutionBuildings,Transport,industry
Airpollutionmap Populationconcentrationmap
Source:USGCRP(2009)
Greenhousegasemission
Airpollutionimpact
Kills7millions/yearEconomiccost:Europe (2009):€ 170billion
SoilandwaterpollutionIndustrialactivity- Brownfields
France:Brownfieldrepartition
1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Protectionofnaturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability
Majorworldchallenges
4.UrbanisationUrbanplanning
- CityDesign(spatialorganization)- Infrastructures- Publicspace- Housing
Consequences:- QualityofLifeAttractiveness
- Socialstability
- Economicactivity
- Slums
4.Urbanisation
Challenges:• PopulationGrowth(hugemetropolis)• Increasedemandforqualityoflife(services,
publicspace,..)• Transportcongestion(newurbanandsocial
models)• Opportunitiesofferedbythedigitalandsocial
innovations
Slumsissue
Mumbai’sSlumMorethanonemillion
Neza-Chalco-Itza,MexicoCity,4 Million
SlumsissueTheslumpopulationisprojectedtoincreasefrom780million(in2000)tosomewherebetween900and1,500million(in2020).
Whattodo?
1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Protectionofnaturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability
Majorworldchallenges
UnitedNation
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_issues_in_Germany#The_Hood
Absolutepoverty(WorldBank):Peoplelivingwithlessthan$1.25perday.
Measuredininternationaldollars,adjustedfor:• Pricelevelinthecountry(PPPadjustment)• Pricechangesovertime.
Poverty
Absolutepovertyevolution
Poverty
%oftheworldpopulationbylevelofincome
Globalization,thefreemarket
Unemployment
Laborcosts:operatorHour
25$
1$
UnemploymentrateinEurope(2013)
UnemploymentrateinEurope(2015)
Eurostat for September 2015 –
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/11/09/investing-in-a-zero-carbon-economy-could-help-the-eu-escape-secular-stagnation/
Unemployment
Consequenceson• Economy• Socialcohesion• prosperity• Politicalstability
Agedependencyratio(%)=
Populationageing
Lebanon:?
Peopleolderthan64orlessthan15yearsold
Peoplebetween15-64
http://www.indexmundi.com/lebanon/demographics_profile.html
PopulationageingChallenges• Retirementfunding• Healthandsocialcare• Customizedservices
1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Protectionofnaturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability
Majorworldchallenges
• Spatialandtimescales• Environmental,socialandeconomic
interaction
6.Sustainabilityissue
Spatialscale
HouseholdWorld
Interaction
LifeQuality
Time
Futuregeneration
Timescale
1
2
3
Sustainability:Environmental,socialandeconomicinteraction
Video :
A1Urbanization andtheevolution ofcities across 10,000years - VanceKiteA2Human Role inClimate ChangeA3NASA|AYear intheLifeofEarth sCO2
Q&:Majorworldchallenges?
Q2:RoleoftheCity?
2Questions
• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Highrisktodisasters
PlaceoftheCity?
Concentrationoftheworldpopulation
• 55%oftheWorldpopulation• France(>80%)•Lebanon85%•2050:70oftheWorldpopulation
By2030:• 400,000km2willbeconstructedforurban
use(doublingtheworld’sbuilturbanarea)• Nearly2 billionnewurbanresidents
Developingcountries:centerofurbantransformation
Citieswithmorethan1millionsinhabitants
Concentration in large cities
ThelightMap
Concentration in large cities
Intheclosefuture,citeswithmorethan50millionsinhabitants
• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation
• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Highrisktodisasters
RoleoftheCity?
TheCity:• 70%oftheworldGDP…• 600metropolisgenerate60%oftheworldGDP• 95%ofthepopulationgrowthinthedevelopingcountries
Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity
GDPofmajorCities(billion$)
LebanonGDP
• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation
• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Highrisktodisasters
PlaceoftheCity?
TheCity:• 70%ofthetotalenergyconsumption• 75%oftheelectricalenergyconsumption
Energyconsumption
EtatsUnisNewYork
Buildings:41%Transport:30%Industry:29%
Buildings:76%Transport:24%
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Tokyo(2005)
Mexico(2006)
London(1999)
Shanghai(2007)
UrbanTransport Timelostatrushhour(minutes/hour)
TransportChallenges• Urbanization• Populationgrowth• Lackofinfrastructures• Lackofpublictransportation• Management• Lackofinnovation
Energyconsumption- urbandensification
SmartStockholm:ReduceTransportCongestion
2005– 2006:Trafficreduction:18%CO2Reduction:14-18%
• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation
• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Highrisktodisasters
PlaceoftheCity?
TheCity:80% ofthegreenhouseemission
Pollutionemission
London
Paris
Buildings:50%
Transport32%
NorthofFrance:48%fromtheindustry,17%transportFrance:20%fromtheindustry,26%fromtransport
Huge variationincountries
Targets2030:• Cutgreenhousegasesbyatleast40%(reference1990)
• Renewableenergy27%• Energyefficiencyimprovementby27%
Europe:Targets2020(Reference1990):
StrategiestoreducetheGreenhouseGasEmission
• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation
• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Disastersrisk
PlaceoftheCity?
Highrisktodisasters
Urbanpopulationsubjectedtonaturaldisasters:• Flood:379millions• Earthquakes:283Millions• Storms:157Millions
FloodRisk(380millions)
EarthquakeRisk(283millions)
StormsRisk(157millions)
Conclusion
• Hugeincreaseinthepopulation,mainlyindevelopingcountries,inurbanarea
• Increasepressureonnaturalresources• Increasedemandforservicesandinfrastructures
• Highenvironmentalrisk:– Fortheplanet(GlobalWarming,ClimateChange)– Forpublichealth
Conclusion
Indevelopedcountries- Ageinginfrastructures- Ageingpopulation- “Economiccrisis”
ConclusionCitiesisthecenteroftheworldchallenges,Theyshouldaffordforthe– Increasedemandforservices– Increasedemandforjobs– Increasedemandforcomfort– Socialtension,….
Context:Lackoffunding(financialcrisis)
Conclusion
Howtodo?
CouldtheSmartCitybea« the »Solution?
Response:Nextchapters
VIDEOS
B1Why arecities so important inassessing globalenergy?B2MexicoCity's Urban Sprawl - copieB3SydneyScheme toGoGreenandCutGreenhouse Gases
Thank you