Megatrends

2016

Sustainabilitycrisis now!

Global interdependency

with growing tensions

Technology changes

everything

Technology changes

everythingVirtualisation, digitalisation, artificial

intelligence (AI), instrumentalisation of

everything, robotisation, nanomaterials,

biotechnology, pharmacology, energy

technology, global ICT structures, global

crowd platforms, blockchain technology

"Will humankind change more in

the next 30 years than in the past

300?"

WHO HOLDS THE FUTURE

VISION?What kind of

society are webuilding?

Technology establishment:

Humans will become a multiplanetary species

The mystery of death can be solved

AI is already here

Human andmachine can be combined

Virtual reality changes the game

WHO OWNS THE FUTURE?

Where it currently hurts?

Work Media

+ other side effects

This challenges our capability to

renew our thinking

But also offers great

opportunities!

ALL!

Human, social, economic aspects… IMPACTS

Polarisation

New organisations, platforms and identities

Technology as an enabler of sustainable well-being

Importance of ethics

Return of humanism andhuman capabilities

The new generation will find its ways

The new deal of the economy and the sharing economy

Wider definition of well-being

Ageing population: young people can’t solve the future

on their own

Everyone must take action

Technology changeseverything

The pace of technological development is extremely fast and affects all aspectsof human life – not just economic and social aspects but also the nature of human being as species. This is a result of the development of artificialintelligence, robotisation and the potential of genetic, medical and biologicalinstrumentation and other similar new technologies.

• The question will not be what the machines can do but what they should do.

• We should all take part in this conversation that is currently mainly reserved for technologyvisionaries. The question is: What kind of society we want to build with the help of technology?

• The debates surrounding technology have been about work: possibilities for proper income, howsociety is organised around work, what is the meaning of work for identity and which activities couldbe counted as meaningful work. Basic income is an integral part of this debate.

• The demography of Western countries challenges us to think more closely about the renewalmechanisms of ageing societies. This touches on sustainable well being. If machines can take care of the work that we now spend our time on, it could help us concentrate on things that so far onlyhumans can do, like creativity, interaction, care, empathy and intuition.

• To become mainstream, sustainable lifestyles or adopting new technologies will need to be adoptedalso by older generations. The youth is becoming a minority.

Would you like to know more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend:Technology as an Enabler of Sustainable Well-being (2015) by Risto Linturi http://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/technology-enabler-sustainable-well-being-modern-societyMegatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends

Sustainabilitycrisis now!

Global interdependency

Technology changes

everything

The rise of thegeo-economy

Globalisation, worldtrade and power politicsbecome even moreintertwined

New players, initatives andgoals+ tensions and unpredictable factors

"The language is trade, the logic is war"

New alliances, goals and globalpower play

Unpredictable global environment

USA, China, EUWINNERS

International organisations

CHALLENGE

WHAT NOW?

Finland has been the biggest winner inglobalisation’s last phase

Focus bothon globaland local

We must assumediversity

Cities holdthe keys to

wickedproblems

Resilienceand ways to

navigate in an unpredictable,

complexenvironment

Multilateral world has

servedFinland well

We need to come to terms with this new world!

Where does the EU belongin the future? Momentum to

rise or fall.

+ the rise of those who can play the game and define their future

Global interdependency

Globalinterdependency

Globalisation, world trade and power politics are becoming even moreintertwined. We are learning to adjust to the planetary boundaries instead of borders of nation states. This can also be felt in the tone of global politics. TheWorld Economic Forum (WEF) uses the term geo-economics to refer to this closelink between trade and power politics: ”The language is trade but the logic is war.”

• New alliances and goals around the globe will shift the old power paradigms. In this environment those who are able to define their own goals and future seem to gain power: the USA, China and the EU, according to WEF.

• The future of the EU is a focal point for the whole of Europe and for Finland. The union is vital while at the same time is challenged politically from within.

• The global environment is difficult to navigate and many surprise factors can quickly change the game. Terrorism, Russia’s policies, oil prices, surprises in the US presidential election and climate change are all factors of an environment that constantly produces unforeseeable developments.

• One big question for the near future is that of the Middle East and the growing instability in the region. The continuation and escalation of conflict in the region is a troublesome scenario which may have long-term consequences for the whole world.

• This global environment has been a challenge for international organisations in the field of politics. However, climate has acted as a counter-balancer for politics. The Paris agreement at COP21 in 2015 is the most significant agreement for 25 years.

• Finland has been the biggest winner of the last phase of globalisation, between 1990 and 2011, according to Bertelsmann Stiftung. In addition, the multilateral world and active participation in a global arena has made Finland’s influence greater than its size would merit. What will be the direction from now on? We need to adapt to the new unpredictable environment and find ways to manage complexity.

Would you like to find out more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend:Aasia haastaa valtio- ja demokratiakäsityksemme (2015) by Teppo Turkki http://www.sitra.fi/julkaisu/2015/aasia-haastaa-valtio-ja-demokratiakasitystamme-uudistumaanMegatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends

Sustainabilitycrisis now!

Global interdependency

Technology changes

everything

Solutions: technology + people

New mindset about the planet, economy andwell-being

1 Energy revolution: renewablespaving their way, fossils in decline

In the air…

The biggest challenge of our time

Technology

De-coupling of economic growth and the use of natural resources

€1500 billion market for cleantechsolutions 2020

Is this trend an opportunityfor humankind to worktogether?

The solutions are already in our hands!

2 Thepotential of the circular economy

Smart services andproducts finding markets

3 Smart seamless traffic

4 Cities are the key to solving wicked problems: new local solutions with the help of technology

5

But eventhe best

solution ortechnology

needspeople to

work

Global warming and resource scarcityDramatic decrease of natural resources and climate change are challenges that will define the future. We have to act now.

A 4-6 °C increase in temperature would be catastrophic

!

People

Sustainabilitycrisis now!

Sustainabilitycrisis now!

Our actions now define the future. We are facing the biggest challenge of our time as we have to de-couple economic growth from emissions and the overuse of natural resources. This means a completely new mind-set on the economy, consumption, technology and well-being.

• However, it seems that many solutions are now coming to the fore; the energy revolution, the circular economy, smart services and products and smart seamless transport. Technological development is making great strides.

• Megacities and urbanisation can also be crucial. In 2050 almost 70% of the world’s population will live in cities. The solutions for traffic, housing and governance in urban areas will define the scale of sustainability for the whole world. Also, new local solutions might become more available in the future. Underground farming and self-sustained energy production are interesting examples.

• But as important as technology is, it needs people to work. Changing mind-sets at all levels is a difficult task. Issues relating to sustainability are also extremely complex and include many different stakeholders. Therefore, sustainability and behavioural change often require multidisciplinary approaches.

• The good news is that the solutions are already in our hands in many ways. Cleantech solutions are expected to be worth 1500 billion euros by 2020 in the field of urban infrastructure. The transport and mobility cleantech markets are likely to grow rapidly.

• Smart waste and water systems also offer big opportunities. The circular economy creates closed loops for material use combining technology into them. The biggest opportunities in the circular economy are in the new business models based on access, renewability and services.

• The world could cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by about 12 gigatonnes by 2030 using only established and proven climate solutions.

Would you like to know more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend: Green to Scale (2015) https://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/green-scaleBenefits of Carbon Neutrality in the Rapidly Changin Business Environment (2015) https://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/benefits-carbon-neutrality-rapidly-changing-businessMegatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends

Sustainabilitycrisis now!

Global interdependency

Technology changes

everything

Megatrends

2016