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A Real Time Operating Decision Support System for the Crocodile

(East) River System

Presentation

Prepared for the first Crocodile River Operations Committee (CROC)

at ICMA

6 October 2009

Water Resource Planning Systems DWA, Pretoria

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History of the Study

• During 2003 drought

Knight Piesold was appointed by WRPS

in May 2004 to develop operating rules

for the Crocodile East River System.

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Specific Features for the Crocodiles East System

• Allocation of water from Kwena Dam would be to supplement run-of-river supply to users;

• Travel time for releases from Kwena Dam to the border

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Deliverables

• ROM model developed (long term )

• Mike 11 concept model (distribution model) to determine the release lag time.

However this two models not linked!

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Motivation for the Real Time study

• Previous study by KP shows that planning tool can’t address the Crocodile operational issues

• Storage only control 10% of MAR and upper part of the catchment

• Strong co-relation flow, predicted flows to be related to historic flows

• Run of river supply dominated system• Progressive implementation of the

Reserve • Mozambique (2m3/s)• Institutional issues

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We need a Real Time DSS:

– To Integrate Short‐term water distribution model and Long‐term Planning and operational Models into the system

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DSS will …– Assist water managers for the decision

making – Provide stakeholders with information – Latest available data and water use

information to make simulation– Combination of Long Term Water

Resources Operational Planning Decisions with Short Term condition and requirements.

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DSS will …

• Determine release required/ allowed

• Determine the restrictions where necessary

• Dissemination the information

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Established DSS

• With the most advanced Real Time framework in the world !

• Many ideas (restriction model and long term stochastic model) applied first time in this study!

• Metered system in the catchment

• First ICMA in SA as implementing Agent of DSS

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Future Challenge

– Coordination among Role Players, linkage with other studies and Stakeholder Buy-in

– New concept models first applied for the catchment and need prove works

– Maintenance and upgrade of Real time gauge stations

– Maintenance and upgrade rainfall and water order data

– Hydrological model (NAM) need fine calibration work

– Regional level parameter and research findings

– Tracking of model predictions and fine tune DSS

– Reserve issues

– Jointly operation with Komati System to meet IO

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Important notes!

• DSS is a Dynamic Tool requiring continuous effort for the Improvement.

• Stakeholder interaction and support is very critical!

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THANK YOU !