Challenging the case for HS2

Jerry Marshall

The deeply flawed business case

Key question: is HS2 in the national interest?

2007: White Paper says HSR too expensive and too inflexible

2010/11: HS2 says NBR is approx. 2, i.e. £2 of benefit for every £1 spent.

How did they do that?

How to get the right NBR

Rule #1: Inflate the benefits

Assume time travelling on trains is wasted and inflate this at 2% pa

Assume impossible ‘Uncrowding’ Benefits assumed to 2085

How to get the right NBR

Rule #2: Stretch the rules on costs Use lower optimism bias correction

than normal (but apply same rates to alternative even though costs are known!)

Ignore finance costs Ignore operator profits

How to get the right NBR

Rule #3: Assume no competition Assume no competitive response,

therefore high demand and price

How to get the right NBR

Rule #4: Ignore disbenefits Slower travel for everyone not very

close to an HS2 station Ignore CO2 and environmental costs Ignore disruption e.g. 8 year rebuild of

Euston

How to get the right NBR

Rule #5: Change the demand forecast to suit

If the forecast to 2033 no longer adds up, extend to 2043

Add and bit more by changing the 2008 base figure!

Ignore impact of ‘Evergreen 3’

How to get the right NBR

Rule #6: Don’t learn from mistakes HS1 running at 1/3rd forecast demand,

sold at 1/3rd of cost“…at a cost of billions of pounds…

passengers in Kent have seen their service transformed into the worst they have ever known” (Andrew Gilligan, Daily Telegraph)

So what is the NBR?

£1200 cost per household (2009 prices) - Of which the Government will throw away approx £600…

But will there be local benefits?

Study for HS2 Ltd by Imperial College says new economic growth created by HS2 would be ‘very small indeed’ – maybe £8m pa.

HSR will redistribute economic activity between places but London is likely to be the main beneficiary.

40k jobs claimed but 30k are ‘regeneration’ e.g. shopping centres, not NEW jobs. Rest are mostly construction. Net cost to Government nearly £500k per job, cf. guidelines for regeneration projects is £27,500 per job.

What’s the visual impact?

To avoid conurbations, HS2 passes through tranquil countryside which will be lost forever

What’s the visual impact?

Security fencing

Viaducts

What’s the visual impact?

Noise barriers

What’s the visual impact?

What’s the alternative? 138% increase in WCML standard class PEAK hours

capacity with just rolling stock changes, no significant infrastructure changes

Doing Ledburn Junction (£243m) doubles congested fast commuter train capacity to MK and Northampton – can’t wait til 2026

Can triple WCML capacity through remaining 6 pinch points identified in Government’s own alternative ‘RP2’

Further potential by bringing forward ERTMS and moving freight off the WCML

Similar approach possible on MML and ECML

NB. In a time of austerity, can we afford the £33bn cost when there is a better and more affordable solution?

Technology will cut business demand

Does it work elsewhere? In 2008 US Amtrak’s Inspector General reported that six

European nations’ operations required a subsidy of $42bn p.a.

“…Virtually no HSR lines anywhere in the world have earned enough revenue to cover both their construction and operating costs.” (US Congressional Research Service 2009)

“The high speed train is no longer such a good deal… This cost drift of the TGV also makes its competitors think. Veolia and its partner Trenitalia, which had announced the opening for the end of 2011 of a high speed link Milan - Paris via Lyon, have just changed their mind…” (Le Monde, 12 Jan 2011)

NB. The HS2 cost to Birmingham (£160m/mile) is ten times the average cost per mile in France

Does it work elsewhere?

The Lille Myth

Greater Lille unemployment rates (above) have risen in absolutely terms and relative to the national average since the arrival of the TGV in 1993.

 1990 1999 2006

Greater Lille 12,4 % 14,3 % 13,2 %

France 10,1 % 11,7 % 10,6 %

Sources of data : INSEE

Lille… has benefited enormously from the high speed hub…

(Philip Hammond, Midlands Today, 24 Feb 2011)

Finally…

Can we afford it? Higher government spending as a proportion of GDP and public sector borrowing cuts growth

Or we pay for it by cutting the number of nurses, police, etc.

Security? Soft but high impact target for terrorists

In conclusionIf it’s ever built, which I doubt, the high-speed rail link between London and Birmingham will be the biggest white elephant since Nellie packed her trunk and trundled off to the circus.

(Paul Routledge, Daily Mirror)

“The burning need in public transport is not for sexy, pointy nosed high speed supertrains, whose economics (and green credentials) simply don’t stack up. It’s for boring, unglamorous improvements to the quotidian services we actually use”

(Andrew Gilligan, Daily Telegraph)