GIL 2014: MONACO The Global Community of Growth, Innovation and Leadership

#GILMonaco

Disrupt, Collapse, Transform: New Business Models Paving the Way to Innovation

3 Key Categories of Business Models

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Disrupt Transform Collapse

A business model that leads to the creation of a new market or

a value network, usually through innovations in new

technology.

Disrupt

Hailo (UK, 2011)

• Launched in London 2011; 13,000 drivers & 3m journeys there to date

• Now present in 16 cities with 42,000 drivers, 750,000 users, 8.5m

journeys to date, amassing $100m annual taxi revenues

• Several investors totalling $50m, including Richard Branson

Uber (USA, 2011)

• In 100 cities (Jan ‘14), growing at 18% per month, estimated $125m

revenue 2013

• Reported $250m investment from several firms, inc. Google Ventures – self

driving vehicle?

• Integrates taxi, “black sedan” and SUV hire – aiming at the premium

chauffeur market

B2C Example: Example of On Demand Services: Taxi Apps Assess the threat of taxi & on demand apps, and consider investing in current providers or a new rival Proposition

Complete redundancy or shutting down of old

techniques, processes and even businesses due to the advent of

new technology or radically new innovations

Collapse

Other Examples of Collapsing Business Models

7

Collapse of Kodak after Digital Print

Digital Retail Collapsing Brick and Mortar Store

Collapse of Blockbuster after Digital Film

Possible Collapse?

Business models that focus on high-growth yet evolutionary development of the business

either through re-inventing the wheel in terms of new value

propositions or investment in new product design.

Transform

Case Study B2B Business Model: AT&T’s Digital Life: Alliance Based/ Partnership Model

9

Security System

E.g. Honeywell

Control Panels

E.g. Cisco

Wireless Sensors

E.g. Aeon Labs

Analytics

E.g. Aeon Labs

Connected Living Package Solution E.g. AT&T Digital Life

Retail Stores: DIY Package sold at retail

stores

Direct Selling: Professional

Installation at Home

Aggregated by Telecom Operators

A B

Aggregator Telecom Vendors

Installation Telecom Vendors (or DIY)

Operation & Maintenance

Telecom Vendors and eco-system of partners

Analytics & Monitoring

Third-party analytics and monitoring stations / Telecom Vendor Monitoring Station

Source: AT&T, Verizon and Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Through M2M connectivity and network connectivity, these providers aggregate various solutions and offer as connected living solutions on unified platforms

Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming the World as We Know It

Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives

What is a Mega Trend?

What is a Mega Trend?

Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the

future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies,

economies, cultures and personal lives.

Urbanization – City as a Customer

Smart is the New Green

Social Trends

Connectivity and Convergence

Bricks and Clicks

Innovating to Zero

New Business Models: Value for Many

Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers

Future Infrastructure Development

Health, Wellness and Well Being

Future of Mobility

11

Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division

Future of Energy

Connectivity & Convergence

Digital Currency: $11

billion worth of Bitcoins in circulation currently

Connected Living:

$730 Billion Market Opportunity in 2020

Personal Robots: Robots

priced between $1,566 and $4,699 could enter our personal

lives

3D/4D Printing:

$7.3 Billion Market Opportunity by 2020

Augmented Reality/Virtual World:

New Markets of Augmented Shopping and Virtual Commerce

Space Jam: 1,213 Total

Number of satellites globally by 2021

4D Printing: Self-

assembling/self-repairing objects could enter our lives by

2050

Nanobots: Swarms of

Nanobots could enter manufacturing and energy by

2030

Sensorization of Devices: From Touchscreen

to Brain-controlled devices

Wearable Devices:

Over $11 billion market estimated for 2020

Big Data:

40% annual growth in big data to 2020

80 Billion Connected

Devices in 2020 and $14.7Tr

internet economy

Powered Exoskeletons : Iron Man

style exoskeletons could enter our lives by 2050

14

Connectivity in Africa: $200 B Opportunity by 2020

`

E-Applications

and

localised African

VAS content

$9.60 Billion

Mobility

Mobile operators

Revenue will

double in next ten

years due to data

uptake

Contact Centre

and BPO

$7.79 Billion

Infrastructure

Development

$60.00 Billion

M-Health

$40.00 Billion

Devices

Over $70.00

Billion

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Key Connectivity Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020

Connectivity Driven Convergence Connectivity Driven Convergence: Industries, Products, Technologies ... Competition

INDUSTRIES

PRODUCTS

Internet Sensors Remote Monitoring

TECHNOLOGIES

Haptics MRI scans Haptic Based MRIs

Healthcare Industry Mobile Phones mHealth

1

3

2

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Image Source:: `Creative Commons and Dreamstime.

Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”

16

Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future Seoul Accounts for about 50% of Korea’s GDP New York City, with a GDP of $1.28 trillion, is equivalent to being the 15th largest country in the world, close in economic scale to South Korea ($1.12 trillion).

What are the Micro Implications? High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Transit oriented development

City as a Customer

17

18

Urbanisation in Africa: $1.36 T Opportunity by 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Key Urbanisation Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020

`

Electricity

$0.5 trillion in

electricity

infrastructure

Healthcare

Infrastructure

$30.00 billion private healthcare

infrastructure

Infrastructure

$30.00 billion in

road and rail

infrastructure

upgrading

Port

Infrastructure

Port infrastructure

investment and

upgrading of $0.2

trillion

Water Sanitation

Infrastructure and

Chemicals

$0.6 trillion in

investment

Smart is the New Green

20.93

14.11

16.65 13.75

9.09

15.26

10.21

Smart Infrastructure3

CAGR: 8.9% (2012-2020)

Smart Cities To Create Huge Business Opportunities With A Market Value Of $1.5 Trillion By 2020

1

2

4

5

6

Smart Governance and Smart Education2

CAGR: 12.4% (2012-2020)

Smart Energy CAGR: 19.6% (2012-2020)

Smart Transportation CAGR: 14.8% (2012-2020)

Smart Healthcare CAGR: 6.9% (2012-2020)

Smart Building CAGR: 8.8% (2012-2020)

7

Smart City Market by Segments,1 Global, 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Note: The graph represent the market share of each segment in the smart city market.

For more information on smart city market sectors please refer to appendix

Smart City Market

2Smart Education includes eLearning services for schools, universities, enterprises, and government entities

1These numbers represent the entire smart solutions eco-system in each segment for both urban and non-urban panoramas

Smart Security CAGR: 14% (2012-2020)

3

3Other Smart Infrastructure such as sensor networks, digital management of water utilities not included in other segments

20

Social Trends

Global Population in 2025: Out of 2.72 Billion Gen Y Population , Around 52% from Asia Alone

Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone

World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2025 2025

2011

6.99 Billion

8.01 Billion

0-14 years 15-34 years 35-64 years 65 years and above

Source: Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations 2011; Frost & Sullivan, 2012

22

Economic Trends

Sub Trend : The Next Game Changers in 2025 High GDP growth, improved FDIs, and rapid industrialization to give rise to a new lot of emerging

countries, beyond BRIC nations, that contend to become next decade’s economic leaders

$2,327 Billion

$1,041 Billion $2,441

Billion

$653 Billion

$772 Billion $323

Billion

$483 Billion

Mexico Egypt

Turkey

Poland

Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

Philippines Next Game Changers

Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections

Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan,

$3,071 Billion

$730 Billion

Nigeria

The trillion dollar economies

24

Health, Wellness and Wellbeing

25

Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing

26

Disease

Management

Clinical Diagnostics

& Therapeutics

Preventive

Services

Physical Exams Coaching Communication/

Information

Services

Consumer Products Medical Health Spas Complementary and

Alternative Medicines

Integrated Health

Solutions

Healthcare today

Today’s world

Healthy Vulnerable Affected Sick

Education

Future system

Wellness Healthcare

Wellness Healthcare

Future healthcare

Source: Frost & Sullivan

27

HWW in Africa: $200 B Opportunity by 2020

Source: IFC, Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Key Health, Wellness and Wellbeing Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020

Medical educaton, 9%

Risk pooling,

13%

Life Sciences (incl.

Distribution), 28%

Health services provision, 50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

For profit, 60%

Social enterprise, 23%

NGO/ non

profit, 17%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Breakdown of Private Healthcare

Investment Opportunities, Africa

Infrastructure

Capital Expenditure

$16 billion in medical

devices investment

across the continent

Hospital Construction

$80 billion in needed

healthcare

infrastructure

Health system

infrastructure

Requirement to reach

MDG – 58,000

additional facilities

operating to reach

target goals

Breakdown of Healthcare

Investment Opportunities, Africa

Conclusion

Macro Micro

From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation

Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your

business and markets

Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a

wide ranging impact

Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-

building and macro economic forecasts

Impact on Future Product/ Technology

Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs

To

29

From Macro to Micro: Workshop Delivery Format

30

Mega

Trends

Technology

Trends

Market

Trends

• 100+ Markets • Physicists • Scientists • Theorists • Futurists etc..

• 100+ Markets • 3-7 Year Forecasts • Market Players • CI

• Global Mega Trends • Regional Mega Trends • Best Practices • Innovation • Strategy

Mega Trend Workshop Clients

No other company combines the extensive analysis F&S

does when analyzing trends, making our content reliable

and cutting edge