5 January 2010

NCAR Research Applications Laboatory“Science in Service to Society”

Roy RasmussenResearch Applications Laboratory

NESLNCAR Earth Systems Laboratory

EOLEarth ObservingLaboratory

RALResearch ApplicationsLaboratory

CISLComputational and Information Sciences Lab

NCAR LaboratoriesNCAR Laboratories

Research Applications Laboratory

• Mission: To develop and transfer knowledge and technology to US government agencies, the private sector, and foreign governments– Expand the reach of atmospheric science into weather-sensitive human

endeavors• New uses for atmospheric science to benefit people and industry

– Contribute to the depth of fundamental and practical understanding in atmospheric science

• Perform cutting-edge research

– Develop new sources of support for such research

– Partnerships with other groups

• Approach: normal business practices, including– Performance as promised

– Emphasis on quality

– Discussions regarding the “art of the possible”

– Attention to customer needs

“Science in Service to Society”

RAL application areas (examples)• Aviation weather

– Icing, snowfall, storms, turbulence, oceanic, ceiling, visibility, volcanic ash

• Hydrometeorology– Thunderstorm forecasting/nowcasting, rainfall

estimation, surface hydrology, aerosol/precipitation studies, cloud seeding studies

• National security applications and range meteorology– NWP systems, applications (e.g., transport and

diffusion), climate downscaling, urban meteorology• Surface transportation

– Road weather, decision support tools• Testbed for advanced numerical techniques

– WRF, data assimilation, new verification methods• Climate Impacts

– Regional adaptation to climate change– Climate and health

• Renewable energy– Wind, solar

RE

SE

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AP

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ICA

TIO

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Aviation Safety

Microburst

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Aviation Safety

Microburst

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SystemsEngineering

Real-Time Oper-ational Systems

SpecializedDisplays

• Algorithm development • System demonstration • Validation • End User

ThunderstormNowcasting

Snowfall and Freezing Drizzle

Precipitation &Air Chemistry

InformationTechnology

Reservoir of Capability

Public ForecastImprovements

Aviation Weather

Hydromet-eorology

Climate Impacts

Surface Transportation

Atmospheric Turbulence

Land-SurfaceModeling

SystemsEngineering

Remote SensingNumerical

Weather Prediction

Precip.Nowcasting

HybridForecast

Techniques

Wind FieldRetrieval

HydrologicApplications

Icing and RelatedCloud Physics

Real-Time Oper-ational Systems

SpecializedDisplays

National Security

Energy

• Algorithm development • System demonstration • Validation • End User

InstrumentDevelopment &

EvaluationCeiling &Visibility

VerificationResearch

SocialScience

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• Weather products• Decision support aids

• Operational systems• Expert advice

• Education • Training

• Commercialization• Advocacy

ThunderstormNowcasting

Snowfall and Freezing Drizzle

Precipitation &Air Chemistry

InformationTechnology

Reservoir of Capability

Public ForecastImprovements

Aviation Weather

Hydromet-eorology

FireWeather

Surface Transportation

Atmospheric Turbulence

Land-SurfaceModeling

SystemsEngineering

Remote SensingNumerical

Weather Prediction

Precip.Nowcasting

HybridForecast

Techniques

RE

SE

AR

CH

TE

CH

NO

LO

GY

AP

PL

ICA

TIO

NS

Wind FieldRetrieval

HydrologicApplications

Icing and RelatedCloud Physics

Real-Time Oper-ational Systems

SpecializedDisplays

National Security

MarineWeather

• Algorithm development • System demonstration • Validation • End User

InstrumentDevelopment &

EvaluationCeiling &Visibility

• Weather products• Decision support aids

• Operational systems• Expert advice

• Education • Training

• Commercialization• Advocacy

VerificationResearch

SocietalImpacts

Aviation Applications Program (AAP)Bruce Carmichael, Director

National Security Applications Program (NSAP)Scott Swerdlin, Director

Hydrometeorology Applications Program (HAP)Roy Rasmussen, Director

Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP)Lawrence Buja, Director

Weather Systems and Assessment Program (WSAP)Bill Mahoney, Director

Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT)Barb Brown, Director

Research Applications Laboratory Brant Foote, Director

Richard Wagoner, Deputy DirectorLiz Hoswell, Acting Administrator

Organization (~ 225 people)

DeputyDirectors

forengineering

and science

Emphasis on:

Project mgmt structure

Staffing matrix

Steady history

of growth

DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48hWRF-NMM 10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05

Pronóstico Observado

Falsasalarmas

Ayudas

Ausentes

Societal Impacts andSocial Science

Some program history and highlights

Alphanumeric Alarm DisplayGraphical Situation Display

Used by:

Supervisors/Managers Controllers

RAL’s first decision support tool(now have more than a dozen different examples)

U.S. Fatalities Associated with Aviation Wind Shear Accidents

0

138

112

152134

37

00

50

100

150

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f F

atal

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'65-'69 '70-'74 '75-'79 '80-'84 '85-'89 '90-'94 '95-'99Year of Accident

Wind Shear R&D

Pilot Training

TDWR

*

* Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities.No TDWR system at Little Rock.

Source: NTSB

Weather: 70% of delays > 15 min 1/4 of all accidents

Aviation Weather R&D at NCAR

27 years of progress

ceiling & visibility

ground de-icing support

In-flight icing

clear-air turbulence

terrain-induced turbulence

volcanic ash

convective weather

Aviation Weather R&D at NCAR

NASA — ASAP ProgramNASA — ASAP Program

NASA’s “Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products” initiative was started in 2002 to help transfer new satellite observing systems and products into operational use through by means of a collaborative effort with the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP).

Current program elements at NCAR include:

In-flight IcingTurbulenceConvective WeatherSpace Weather (ADDS)NextGen Support

External collaborators include:

NASA LaRCUinversity of Wisconsn CIMSSUniv. of Alabama HuntsvilleMIT/LL & NRL-Monterey

Incorporating NASA satellite products…Incorporating NASA satellite products…

Current Icing Product (CIP) Enhancement

Testing NASA cloud-top estimate and satellite-derived cloud phase parameter shows reduction of over-predicted icing areas and improvement in PODn.

Operational CIP Method Experimental NASA Enhancements

Feature Identification…Feature Identification…

MODIS Water Vapor Imagery Helps Identify Mountain Waves

Clear-air mountain wave features over Colorado, visualized using enhanced 6.7μm satellite imagery (figure courtesy UW-CIMSS).

Complex wave patterns with intersecting features may be related to moderate or greater turbulence.

Red & orange circles show pilot reportswith moderate or greater turbulence.

Activities started more recently

• Renewable energy

• Climate change in relation to: – Water resources– Health– Urban emissions, adaptation, & vulnerability– Assessing vulnerability and adaptation in

native communities (ASP post doc)

Colorado Headwaters

Convective Parameterization

NCAR Water System Program

How Does the Water Cycle Change as Climate Changes?

Societal Impacts

Global Water Cycle Studies

-1c 15 ms

NoonNoon Early next morningEarly next morning

CumuloCumulo--nimbusnimbus

~1000 km~1000 km

To first order, elevated solar heating To first order, elevated solar heating determines start position & start determines start position & start time of traveling convectiontime of traveling convection

MesoscaleMesoscaledowndraftdowndraft

MCS = MCS = cumulonimbuscumulonimbus

familyfamily

Moister further east

Directional shear

Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation In the Lee of Topography

1D cloud model

NCAR Research Applications Laboratory

DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48hWRF-NMM 10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05

Pronóstico Observado

Falsasalarmas

Ayudas

Ausentes