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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts

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Case-Shiller®
Home Price Index Forecasts EXCLUSIVE FORECASTS OF THE MOST ACCURATE MEASURE OF U.S. HOME PRICES
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts
The Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are widely recognized as the most accurate measure of changes in house prices over time. They measure the total market, not just prices of homes purchased through conforming loans. Using Robert Shiller and Karl Case’s time-tested repeat- sales methodology, CSIs are value-weighted and based on observed changes in the value of actual sales. This methodology eliminates appraisal bias, filters out non-arm’s-length sales, and down-weights pairs with long intervals between sales to reduce the influence of extreme price changes.
Economic Expertise » More than 80 economists tracking regional economic
conditions.
» Dedicated team of housing analysts.
» One of the first firms to warn of the housing bubble and downturn.
The Industry Standard » Trusted for decades by government entities, Wall Street, and
leading financial institutions worldwide
» Selected by S&P as the arbiter of house price futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
» Time-tested methodology validated and accepted by market and industry professionals.
Key Features
credit card marketing.
Manage Risk in RMBS Investments » Update mortgage pool
collateral values.
and marketing.
» Estimate gains and losses under multiple economic scenarios.
The Most Accurate » Monthly forecasts ensure that current economic climate is captured.
» Alternative economic scenarios allow for stress-testing and “what if” analysis.
» Data quality measures never compromised for more coverage or higher frequency.
» Rigorous validation results in low thresholds of implied volatility, making the index more stable and thus more usable.
» Selected by the FDIC in its stress tests of residential mortgage assets as the only accurate reflection of the market downturn in both timing and severity.
The most trustworthy and authoritative U.S. house price forecasts — available exclusively from Moody’s Analytics and CoreLogic® since 2003.
» Moody’s Analytics forecasts use a fully specified, transparent supply-and-demand model.
» The model identifies long-term influences such as income trends and demographics and cyclical factors such as unemployment, affordability, and changes in mortgage and foreclosure rates .
» Baseline—most likely—scenario as well as several alternative scenarios simulate the path of house prices under a range of conditions.
» Monthly forecasts ensure that current economic conditions are always reflected.
Dynamic Forecasts
13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3
Baseline Stronger Near-term Rebound Slower Near-term Recovery Second Recession Protracted Slump Oil Price Increase, Inflation
Los Angeles, CA Metropolitan Division Case-Shiller® Home Price Index, % change yr ago
Sources: CoreLogic, Moody's Analytics
0 10 20 30 40 50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index NAR Median Home Price FHFA Purchase-Only
Three House Price Measures Compared % change yr ago
Sources: CoreLogic, FHFA, NAR, Moody's Analytics
Alternative Scenario Analysis Choose a scenario that best fits your stress test perspective, goals, and regulatory requirements
Superior Accuracy The CSIs accurately capture the timing and magnitude of housing shifts and are less volatile than other indexes.
R FAQs
R Model methodology
Learn More
Email us: [email protected] Or visit us: www.economy.com/csi
U.S./CANADA +1 866.275.3266
OTHER LOCATIONS +1 610.235.5299
CONTACT US To find out how Case-Shiller Home Price Index forecasts can help meet your needs:
Email us: [email protected] Or visit us: www.economy.com/csi
U.S./CANADA +1.866.275.3266
EMEA +44.20.7772.5454
ASIA/PACIFIC +852.3551.3077
OTHER LOCATIONS +1.610.235.5299
CONTACT US To find out how Case-Shiller Home Price Index forecasts can help meet your needs:
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts
Forecast Database Monthly forecast updates to the single-family aggregate index for:
» The United States.
» All U.S. states.
» More than 400 U.S. counties.
» More than 6,000 U.S. zip codes
Coverage
Historical Database » Repeat-purchase indexes for all metro areas.
» Exclusive indexes for more than 130 markets, more than 400 counties, and more than 4,000 zip codes.
Both Datasets also include: » Three price tiers for more than 40 metropolitan areas.
» Condominium data for more than 35 metropolitan areas..
Data Access
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index forecasts can be retrieved via DataBuffet.com, the cutting-edge data delivery platform from Moody’s Analytics. DataBuffet.com is a robust, web-based data management tool that allows you to transform data, create charts and maps, and download data in many formats. It is also integrated into Microsoft Office for quick and easy implementation into your workflow. Charts and maps can be imported into Word, Excel or PowerPoint.
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index avg annual % growth, 2013-2015
Sources: CoreLogic, FHFA, Moody’s Analytics
Above 5.3 3-5.3 0-3 Less than zero
U.S. = 4.15
Sources: CoreLogic, FHFA, Moody’s Analytics
Above 10 Between 4-10 Below 4
U.S. = 7.4