Changing Transitions to Adulthood in

Developing Countries

Highlights from NRC/IOM Panel Report

Cynthia Lloyd, Chair and Editor Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

June 9, 2005

Outline

• Framework and context

• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health

• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood

• Policy and program implications

Rapid Global

Change

Changing National Context

Changing Local

CommunityContext

Changes in Individual

Resources/Attributes

duringTransition

Changes in the

Transition to Adulthood

Conceptual framework

Source: NRC/IOM (2005)

Rapid Global

Change

1980

2005

2030

Africa

Asia

Latin America/Caribbean

1.1 billion

1.5 billion

1.7 billionSource: NRC/IOM 2005

Demographic profile of young people (10-24) in developing countries

Population of young people (ages 10-24)as percent of 1980 level

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

550%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Congo (Dem Rep)

Pakistan

Nigeria

Egypt

India

Brazil

Mexico

China

Source: UN estimates and projections [http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp]

What do young people need to achieve successful transitions?

• Good health, including knowledge and means to sustain health

• An appropriate stock of human and social capital to become a productive adult

• Prosocial values and the ability to contribute to the collective well-being

• Adequate preparation for the assumption of adult social roles and obligations

• The capability to make choices

Source: NRC/IOM (2005)

Outline

• Framework and context

• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health

• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood

• Policy and program implications

Schooling

• Growth in school attendance and grade attainment has been unprecedented

• Gender gap, where it still exists, is closing rapidly

• Young people spend more of their adolescence in school

• Large differentials in school attendance by wealth and residence persist

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Age Age

Cameroon (1998)

Age

Ethiopia (1999)

Age

Bangladesh (1999-00)India (1998-00)

Ghana (1998-99)

Age

Pakistan (2001-02)

Age

Percent ever attended school, 6 countries

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Boys Girls

Source: DHS and AYP data

School attendance,15-19 year olds, by socio-economic status

(weighted averages)

3828

6759

0

20

40

60

80

100

Boys Girls

Per

cen

t cu

rren

tly

enro

lled Lowest 40% Highest 20%

Data source: Demographic and Health Surveys 1990-2001, 48 countries

• Comparative data from standardized test scores raise serious concerns

• Poor school quality compromises attendance and retention

Student test scores by country2000-2001 (aged 15)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Reading Math

Japan

USA

Thailand

Mexico

Argentina

Chile

Brazil

Indonesia

Peru

Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute of Statistics (2003)

Health and reproductive health

• Health improving overall, except in areas hard hit by HIV

• In most regions, higher prevalence of HIV among girls than boys

• For young women, maternal mortality/morbidity still among most significant risks

• Young men disproportionately affected by accidents, violence, war, and suicide

• Mental health problems — a substantial, and possibly increasing, share of illness

Health behaviors

• Students are less likely to have had sex than non-students

• Students are more likely, if sexually active, to use contraception than non-students

• Condom use is very low but increasing; contraceptive use is rising among sexually active young women

• Smoking rates are high; use of illicit drugs and alcohol is likely to be rising

Percent ever having had sex, ages 15-17, by enrollment status

0

20

40

60

80

100

Brazil Peru Kenya Tanzania Ghana Coted'Ivoire

Per

cen

t

Students Non-Students

Source: NRC/IOM 2005

Outline

• Framework and context

• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health

• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood

• Policy and program implications

Transitions to work

• Delays in school exit have led to later labor force entry, declines in child labor

• Rise in schooling has led to a greater equalization of work burdens by sex

• Poverty is the main cause of child labor

• Increased numbers of young people have entered the labor market without any large relative increases in unemployment rates

• Young women are increasingly likely to engage in paid employment

• More educated workers have higher earnings, greater job stability and mobility

Female employment rate, Brazil 1977 and 2001 (ages 10-25)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

10 15 20 25

Per

cen

t w

ork

ing

2001 1977

AgeSource: NRC/IOM 2005

Transitions to citizenship

• Successful transitions to citizenship are important to development

• Young men are more likely than young women to be active politically

• Young people are more likely than older people to participate in community organizations

• Young people have greater trust in religious institutions and the press than public institutions

Livelihoods Program in Ghana

• A variety of institutions and programs can be important to citizenship formation

Transitions to marriage

• A smaller proportion of young people are married than previously

• Declines in early marriage (before 18) are widespread. Nonetheless, prevalence of child marriage remains significant in some regions

• Large differentials in age of marriage by education, wealth, and residence persist

• Typically, there is a distinct gap between the age of school leaving and marriage

Trends in percent of women married by age 18

0 20 40 60 80 100

South America

Caribbean/CentralAmerica

Middle East

Eastern/SouthernAfrica

Western/MiddleAfrica

South-Central/Southeastern Asia

20-24year olds 40-44 year olds

Data source: Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-2001.

Vietnam, 1999

0%

50%

100%

10 15 20 25 30

Age

Mexico, 2000

0%

50%

100%

10 15 20 25 30

Age

School and marriage status, females, by single years of age

Source: NRC/IOM (2005)

Left school

MarriedKenya, 1999

0%

50%

100%

10 15 20 25 30

Age

Brazil, 1999

0%

50%

100%

10 15 20 25 30

Age

Transitions to parenthood

• Young men become parents later than young women, allowing more time to prepare

• Age of first parenthood is rising; the pace of change is highly variable

• 90% of births occur within marriage; no change in 20 years

• Mean length of first birth interval is declining everywhere

• Patterns of premarital childbearing vary substantially by region

Outline

• Framework and context

• Preparation for adult roles: schooling and health

• Transitions to adult roles: work, citizenship, marriage, parenthood

• Policy and program implications

Policy and program implications

• Target policies and programs to the poor, especially poor girls

• Invest in significant improvements in primary school quality, building a base for secondary school expansion

• Promote gender equity in the arenas of citizenship, work, marriage, and parenthood for all social classes

• Encourage active collaboration between health and education sectors in designing multi-pronged reproductive health programs

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%

Trends in Grade Attainment (Percent Completed 6 or More Years)

Girls Boys

40-44 yrs old 20-24 yrs old

Africa

LatinAmerica

Asia

100 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80 100

Source: DHS and AYP data

Percent Currently Enrolled (15 year olds)

Boys Girls

Africa

Asia

LatinAmerica

20 40 60 80 100

Source: DHS

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Age Age

Cameroon (1998)

Age

Ethiopia (1999)

Age

Bangladesh (1999-00)India (1998-00)

Ghana (1998-99)

Age

Pakistan (2001-02)

Age

Percent completed 6+ years, 6 countries

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Boys Girls

Source: DHS and AYP data

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Age Age

Cameroon (1998)

Age

Ethiopia (1999)

Age

Bangladesh (1999-00)India (1998-00)

Ghana (1998-99)

Age

Pakistan (2001-02)

Age

Combined data - 6 countries

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

0

25

50

75

100

40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14

Boys Girls

Source: DHS and AYP data

4654 56 57 58 58 58

2633

4045 48 50 53

0

20

40

60

80

100

40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

Age Range

Per

cen

t

Boys Girls

Trends in percent completing primary school, 24 African countries

late 1960s early 1970s late 1970s early 1980s late 1980s early 1990s late 1990s

Author estimates)(Source: Hewett and Lloyd (2005)

Media access, 15–19 year olds

0

20

40

60

80

100

West/MiddleAfrica

South/EasternAfrica

Carib/CentralAmerica

SouthAmerica

Female

Male

Householdownership oftelevision

Watch televisionat least once/week:

Source: DHS, all women surveys

Per

cen

t

Percent Distribution of Countries by Type of Change: A Comparison of 20-24 Year

Olds to 40-44 Year Olds

IncreaseNo

Change Decrease

Marrying by 18 2.4 22.0 75.6

Having Premarital Sex by 18 58.5 39.0 2.4

Having Sex by 18 22.0 46.3 31.7

Note: Based on 41 DHS countries

Ratio of Proportion of Unmarried Women Aged 15-17 Who Ever Had Sex Among Those Not Currently Enrolled vs. Enrolled,

by Overall Proportion in School

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Guatemala

Zimbabwe

Bolivia

Note: Age standardizedSource: DHS Surveys, 1995-2001

Pr o

po

r tio

n w

ho

ev

er

ha

d s

ex

Ag

ed

15

- 17

(N

ot

i n s

c ho

ol /I

n

sch

oo

l)

Proportion in schoolLatin America Africa

Trends in Percent of Women Who Marry and

Have a First Birth Before Age 18

0

20

40

60

80

100

Source: NRC/IOM 2005

Per

cen

t

SouthAmerica

Carib/CentAmerica

FormerSoviet

East/SouthAfrica

West/Middle Africa

SC/SEAsia

MiddleEast

40-44 year olds

20-24 year olds

MarryBirth