Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in ... · carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul ... Urbanization and directper capita CO2 ... Urban development process and energy,

Comparison of urban energy use and Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing,

Seoul and ShanghaiSeoul and Shanghai

Shinji Kaneko, Hiroshima University Shinji Kaneko, Hiroshima University ShobhakarShobhakar DhakalDhakal, Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Project

International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon Modeling,

February 5-6, 2008, AIT Centre, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand

Goals through comparative studyGoals through comparative study

To understand dynamic relationships among urbanization, economicTo understand dynamic relationships among urbanization, economicdevelopment, industrial structure changes, development, industrial structure changes, totaltotal direct CO2 emissions and direct CO2 emissions and indirect CO2 emissions.indirect CO2 emissions.

To distinguish unintentional factors such as income effects, ecoTo distinguish unintentional factors such as income effects, economic nomic structure effects accompanied by urban development process from structure effects accompanied by urban development process from the the intentional factors which try to utilize the advantages of citieintentional factors which try to utilize the advantages of cities s (concentration, economy of scale, economy of agglomeration).(concentration, economy of scale, economy of agglomeration).

ContentsContents

Urbanization and Urbanization and directdirect per capita CO2 emissionper capita CO2 emission–– Cities and CO2 emissionsCities and CO2 emissions–– Economic development, urbanization and per capita CO2 Economic development, urbanization and per capita CO2

emissionemissionUrban development process and energy, CO2 in Tokyo, Urban development process and energy, CO2 in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and ShanghaiBeijing, Seoul and Shanghai–– Flying geese pattern of developmentFlying geese pattern of development–– Economic structure and external dependencyEconomic structure and external dependency–– Energy structureEnergy structure

Embodied CO2 emissionsEmbodied CO2 emissions–– Carbon budget analysis (Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai)Carbon budget analysis (Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai)–– Regional comparisons in JapanRegional comparisons in Japan–– Future worksFuture works

Gap of per capita CO2 between city and countryGap of per capita CO2 between city and country

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Per c

apita

CO2

emiss

ion (t

-CO2

/pers

on)

Tokyo Japan(CDIAC) Japan

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Per c

apita

CO2

emiss

ion (t

-CO2

/pers

on)

Seoul Korea

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Per c

apita

CO2

emiss

ion (t

-CO2

/pers

on)

Beijing Shanghai China(CDIAC) China

Tokyo Seoul Beijing and Shanghai

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 1 2 3 4 5

Gap of per capita CO2 between urban and national

Urba

n con

tributi

on to

total

CO2

emiss

ions

Urbanization1960 (32.75%) Urbanization2005 (48.77%)Urbanization2030 (59.92%)

City and CO2 emissionCity and CO2 emission

Urbanizing worldUrbanizing world–– World: 32.75% (1960) => World: 32.75% (1960) =>

48.77% (2005) => 60% 48.77% (2005) => 60% (2030)(2030)

–– Developing East Asia and the Developing East Asia and the Pacific: 16.76% (1960) => Pacific: 16.76% (1960) => 41.45% (2005)41.45% (2005)

If per capita CO2 emission in If per capita CO2 emission in cities is twice larger than that in cities is twice larger than that in national average, then cities national average, then cities contributes 66% of CO2 emissions contributes 66% of CO2 emissions under current level of under current level of urbanization.urbanization.

Better understanding of the gap Better understanding of the gap in per capita CO2 between city in per capita CO2 between city and national would be good start and national would be good start to have overall contribution of to have overall contribution of cities to global carbon emissions. cities to global carbon emissions.

Shanghai

Beijing

TokyoSeoul

1960

2005

2030

Urbanization, GDP and per capita CO2 emissionUrbanization, GDP and per capita CO2 emission

Dependent Variable:CO2 emission (metric tons per capita)

Independent Variable:Urban population (% of total)Manufacture, value added (% of GDP)GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)

Period: 1960-2006Countries: 163 countriesObservations: 3,396Data Sources: World Development Indicator 2007Model: Random Effect Tobit Regression model

Urbanization, GDP and per capita CO2 emissionUrbanization, GDP and per capita CO2 emissionBy eliminating lower income countries and refining the sample with higher income countries, elasticity of urbanization to per capita CO2 emission changes.In the range of per capita GDP between 21,000 and 22,000, the elasticity turns to be negative.

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000Lowe limit of GDP per capita (constant 2000 international $)

Urba

nizati

on, E

lastic

ities

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Numb

er of

obse

rvatio

ns

Urbanization, Parameters elasticities

Tokyo

Seoul

Beijing

Shanghai

GRDPbillion 2000 $, PPP billion 2000 $, exchange

Tokyo 625 879Seoul 213 143Beijing 191 46Shanghai 332 80Total 1,360 1,148

GDPBrazil (9, 10) 1,362 655Italy (8, 7) 1,488 1,133France (7, 6) 1,626 1,413

2004

Urban development pattern of East Asian megaUrban development pattern of East Asian mega--citiescities (Passenger vehicle ownership)(Passenger vehicle ownership)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.019

08

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

million unit

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000person per unit

person per unit(Tokyo2) person per unit(Seoul)person per unit(Beijing) person per unit(Shanghai)Tokyo(2) SeoulBeijing Shanghai

Tokyo Olympic (1964) Seoul Olympic (1988) Beijing Olympic (2008)

Shanghai Expo (2010)

Seoul

Tokyo

Shanghai

BeijingFinal Energy Consumption1990-2004

Gas and othersElectricity

Petroleum products

Coal products

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Final

Energ

y Con

sump

tion (

PJ)

Coal products Petroleum productsElectricity Gas and Others

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Final

Energ

y Con

sump

tion (

PJ)


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Final

Energ

y Con

sump

tion (

PJ)


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Final

Energ

y Con

sump

tion (

PJ)


Phase of economic developmentPhase of economic development and industrial transformationand industrial transformation

GDP/GRP Growth

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

1961-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2003

Econ

omic

grow

th ra

te (%

)

China growht ratio Beijing Growth ratio Shanghai GrowthJapan growth ratio Tokyo growth ratio

Industrial Structure Change

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1961-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2003

Indus

trial S

hare

(%)

Beijing_Industry Beijing_Service Shanghai_IndustryShanghai_Service Tokyo_Industry Tokyo_Service

Consumption Consumption vsvs InvestmentInvestment

Share of Gross Fixed Capital Formation

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

ChinaJapanBeijingShanghaiTokyoKorea

Share of Private Final Consumption

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

ChinaJapanBeijingShanghaiTokyoKorea

Economic external dependencyEconomic external dependency

Export/Total Production

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

China Japan Beijing Tokyo Shanghai

Import/Domestic Demand

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

China Japan Beijing Tokyo Shanghai

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

CO2 e

miss

ion (m

illion

t-CO

2

Shanghai Beijing

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

CO2 e

miss

ion (m

illion t

-CO2

)

Seoul

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

CO2 e

miss

ion (m

illion t

-CO2

)

Tokyo

CO2 emissions from Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and ShanghaiCO2 emissions from Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai

Tokyo Seoul Beijing and Shanghai

Methodology: carbon footprint analysis with regional inputMethodology: carbon footprint analysis with regional input-- output energy modeloutput energy model

City

Country

World

ImportExport

City

Country

World

ImportExport Embodied energy in import for final

consumption

Embodied energy in import of intermediate products

Embodied energy in import for capital formation

Production

Consumers

Capital Stock

Embodied energy in Export

Imported productsLocal productsEnergy supply

from the earth

Industry j

Industry 1Industry 2

Industry 3 Industry n-2Industry n-1

Industry n

1

n

i iji

Xε=∑

jE

1

n

j jii

Xε=∑

1

n

j j j jii

Q Xε ε=

−∑

• Embodied energy and embodied CO2 emissions• Indirect energy and CO2 emissions

COCO 22 Balance, million tBalance, million t--COCO 22 (1)(1)

Japan 85Japan 85--9090--9595Carbon footprintCarbon footprint–– 1.63 (1985)1.63 (1985)–– 1.60 (1990)1.60 (1990)–– 1.51 (1995)1.51 (1995)

China 92China 92--9797Carbon footprintCarbon footprint–– 1.09 (1992)1.09 (1992)–– 1.23 (1997)1.23 (1997)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

China inflow(1992)

China inflow(1997)

Chinaoutflow(1992)

Chinaoutflow(1997)

Embodied CO2 in export

Embodied CO2 in capital formation

Embodied CO2 in final consumption

Embodied CO2 in imported products


CO2 in energy supply

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Japan inflow(1985)

Japan inflow(1990)

Japan inflow(1995)

Japanoutflow(1985)

Japanoutflow(1990)

Japanoutflow(1995)







COCO 22 Balance, million tBalance, million t--COCO 2 2 (2)(2)

Tokyo 85Tokyo 85--9090--9595Carbon footprintCarbon footprint–– 5.81 (1985)5.81 (1985)–– 6.55 (1990)6.55 (1990)–– 4.44 (1995)4.44 (1995)

Beijing 92Beijing 92--9797Carbon footprintCarbon footprint–– 1.95 (1992)1.95 (1992)–– 1.99 (1997)1.99 (1997)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Tokyo inflow(1985)

Tokyo inflow(1990)

Tokyo inflow(1995)

Tokyooutflow(1985)

Tokyooutflow(1990)

Tokyooutflow(1995)







0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Beijinginflow (1992)

Beijinginflow (1997)

Beijingoutflow(1992)

Beijingoutflow(1997)







COCO 22 Balance, million tBalance, million t--COCO 2 2 (3)(3)

Fukuoka 85Fukuoka 85--9090--9595Carbon footprintCarbon footprint–– 3.65 (1985)3.65 (1985)–– 3.16 (1990)3.16 (1990)–– 3.21 (1995)3.21 (1995)

Kitakyushu 85Kitakyushu 85--9090--9595Carbon footprintCarbon footprint–– 1.43 (1985)1.43 (1985)–– 1.71 (1990)1.71 (1990)–– 1.71 (1995)1.71 (1995)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Fukuokainflow (1985)



Fukuokaoutflow(1985)









0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Kitakyushuinflow (1985)



Kitakyushuoutflow(1985)









COCO 22 emission (2000)emission (2000)

Direct CO2 emission Indirect CO2 emission

(million t-CO2)

60402010

n.a.

(t-CO2/capita)

1612 8 4

n.a.

COCO 22 emission per capita (2000)emission per capita (2000)

Direct CO2 emission per capita Indirect CO2 emission per capita

Comparison of annual growth rate from 1990 to 2000Comparison of annual growth rate from 1990 to 2000

Direct CO2 emission Indirect CO2 emission

(%)

4 2 1 0-2

n.a.

Net virtual inflow of carbonNet virtual inflow of carbon Indirect Indirect -- Export COExport CO 22 emission (2000)emission (2000)

(million t-CO2)

20 0-20-40

Indirect and Export COIndirect and Export CO 22 Emission per Direct CO2 (2000)Emission per Direct CO2 (2000)

3.22.41.60.8

n.a.

Indirect / Direct CO2 Emission Export / Direct CO2 Emission

(Direct + Indirect) CO(Direct + Indirect) CO 22 emission per capita (2000)emission per capita (2000)

(t-CO2/capita)

201510

n.a.

(Direct + Indirect (Direct + Indirect -- Export) COExport) CO 22 emission (2000)emission (2000)

(million t-CO2)

40 20 10 0-10

n.a.

Concluding remarksConcluding remarks

Gap of per capita CO2 between city and national average vary froGap of per capita CO2 between city and national average vary from m city to city, to have better understanding some distribution patcity to city, to have better understanding some distribution pattern tern of the gaps across different scale and income level of cities woof the gaps across different scale and income level of cities would uld help to understand overall urban contribution to global carbon help to understand overall urban contribution to global carbon emissions.emissions.With higher income group, urbanization would positively contribuWith higher income group, urbanization would positively contribute te to improve per capita CO2 emission at the country, while to improve per capita CO2 emission at the country, while urbanization in middle income countries would negatively contriburbanization in middle income countries would negatively contribute.ute.Industrial structure and its changes are one of the dominant facIndustrial structure and its changes are one of the dominant factors tors to determine the level and changes of both total CO2 emissions oto determine the level and changes of both total CO2 emissions of f cities, directly and indirectly.cities, directly and indirectly.In order to evaluate the real performance of citiesIn order to evaluate the real performance of cities’’ climate climate mitigation policies, we need study more on the contributions of mitigation policies, we need study more on the contributions of unintentional factors. unintentional factors.

Documents

Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in ... · carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul ... Urbanization and directper capita CO2 ... Urban development process and energy,