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HS2 in the East MidlandsSeminar
25 November 2013
Sir Brian BriscoeChair & TCPA Trustee
HS2 – A CATALYST FOR A HIGH SPEED BRITAINIan JordanDirector – Phase Two, HS2 Ltd
We have consistently under invested in infrastructure
• The Government has provided for significant capital spending on our transport networks, with total funding of £73bn over the period from 2015 to 2021.
• Our railways will see the biggest modernisation programme since the Victorian era.
• But in spite of this investment, our rail network is still under significant pressure.
The capacity crunch
• Over recent years rail travel has been experiencing a massive growth
• 125 million long distance journeys were made in 2011/12, more than double the 54 million made in 1994/95
• By mid 2020’s key routes will be severely crowded
HS2 is the only way to deliver our North South Railway needs
HS2 will treble the number of seats into Euston from 11,300 to 34,900 an hour
8
HS2 will slash journey times
The route: Phase One & Phase Two
11
In the East Midlands
12
Nottingham Journey Times
Derby Journey Times
13
14
Leicester Journey Times
Released Capacity
• Network Rail is completing a separate piece of work on released capacity‐ ‘Better Connections’
• This, with HS2, looks to transform rail travel in the UK as a whole
• This work will help areas not served directly by HS2 to have benefits from the improved rail system
15
HS2 will directly employ up to 50K people & drive delivery of 100k of jobs
Jobs & Skills
Analysis by KPMG shows that the economic benefits will be widespread
17
Greater Manchester(Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham,
Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan)
Productivity gains valued at between £1.3 billion and £0.6 billion per year; equivalent to between a 1.7% and 0.8% increase in total local economic output in 2037
West Yorkshire(Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees, Leeds,
Wakefield)
Productivity gains valued at £1.0 billion per year; equivalent to a 1.6% increase in total local economic output in 2037
South Yorkshire(Barnsley, Doncaster, Rotherham and
Sheffield)
Productivity gains valued at between £0.5 billion and £0.9 billion per year; equivalent to between a 1.9% and 3.2% increase in total local economic output in 2037
Derby‐Nottingham(City of Derby, City of Nottingham, eight Derbyshire
districts and seven Nottinghamshire districts)
Productivity gains valued at between £1.1 billion and £2.2 billion per year; equivalent to between a 2.2% and 4.3% increase in total local economic output in 2037
West Midlands (Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell,
Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton)
Productivity gains valued at between £1.5 billion and £3.1 billion per year; equivalent to between a 2.1% and 4.2% increase in total local economic output in 2037
Greater London(33 London Boroughs)
Productivity gains valued at between £2.8 billion and £2.5 billion per year; equivalent to a 0.5% increase in total local economic output in 2037
Rest of Great Britain
Productivity gains valued at between £7.0 billion and £5.0 billion per year; equivalent to between a 0.6% and 0.4% increase in total local economic output in 2037
Full Y jobs network profile
18
Timeline
Date Milestone
2013 • Consultation on preferred route, stations and depots for Phase Two launches
End of 2013 • Hybrid Bill for Phase One submitted to Parliament
End of 2014 • Government’s announcement of final decision on the chosen route, station and depots for Phase Two
• Hybrid Bill process for Phase One continues
2015 • Commence engineering design, environmental impact assessment and preparation of Hybrid Bill for Phase Two
• Target date for Royal Assent to Hybrid Bill for Phase One, containing legal powers to construct Phase One
Next Parliament
• Deposit Hybrid Bill for Phase Two
2016/2017 • Construction on Phase One commences
2021/22 • Construction on Phase Two commences
2026 • Phase One opens to passengers
2033 • Phase Two opens to passengers
20
Dr Hugh EllisTCPA Chief Planner
Better ConnectionsClive Woods
Rail is a great success…
• 50% increase in rail journeys over 10 years
• Over 1 million more trains• 1.23 billion rail journeys in
2011/12 (6% increase from previous year)
• Demand increasing by 400 million train journeys by 2020
• Investment continues into the existing network - £24Bn for enhancements and renewals in CP5
23
But…• Parts of the network are
already over capacity• Incremental improvements
can’t keep pace with demand• Total growth in passenger
journeys by 2043:–London to Birmingham:
33-81%–London to Manchester:
51-142%–London to Leeds:
41-132%–Birmingham to Manchester:
40-116%–Birmingham to Leeds:
39-111% 24
‘Better Connections’ with HS2• HS2 will alleviate much of the capacity
constraints• Better Connections: Options for the
integration of High Speed 2• Published 17th July 2013
"HS2 provides an opportunity to fundamentally reshape our railway in a way that incremental improvements simply cannot deliver. It is a chance to stop playing catch-up on capacity and instead look at how the rail network could deliver a step-change improvement towards key national goals …This study is part of a wider programme that looks at how the high speed and existing lines might work together as a single network.”
Paul Plummer – Group Strategy Director
Do Minimum
26
• Keep train services on existing lines broadly the same,
• Offering reduced crowding and increased choice for passengers
• Potential for Open Access style operations
Incremental Approach
27
• Replace long distance services on existing network that are replicated by HS2
• Improved inter-urban connectivity and/or additional commuting capacity
• Potential benefits could be:–London to Sheffield journeys
extended to Leeds–New links from
Bristol/Swindon/Oxford to Leicester/Nottingham/Sheffield (via East-West rail)
Integrated Connectivity
28
• More radical concept • All future rail services
planned in a 'hub and spoke' model
• Recasting the existing timetable
• Complement and work in conjunction with HS2
• Create entirely new opportunities to improve inter-regional, commuter and freight services
• Promote modal shift
Working with HS2
29
• Toton Connectivity working group and report
• Meadowhall station• Leeds station• Woodlesford corridor
proposals• HS2 crossing point
safeguards• HS2 / NR connections• Capacity north of Church
Fenton
Reshaping your railway
• Key learning from our study is to plan the integration of the existing and new high speed lines
• Next steps will be to commence more detailed planning;
–integration of HS2 and the existing network
–the way to best use the network for our customers
• Network Rail will work with stakeholders to develop proposed services
30
Do nothing is not an option
31
• Our market studies forecast continued growth in all scenarios
• Many parts of the network will exceed capacity, even with continued investment
• We have undertaken further work on upgrading the existing network;
–Potentially some real benefit –But…hugely disruptive–Does not deliver the scale of
benefits from the new lines• New lines are by far the best
solution
Julie TannerChief Executive, OPUN
& Professor Kathryn Moore,Birmingham City University
Q & A
Tea break
HS2 – Essential for ConnectivityA Boost for Business
George CowcherDirector & Chief Executive
November 2013
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
Chamber Surveys consistently show
Two key issues for business are:– Skills– Transport Connectivity
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
Transport Connectivity
Local Employees
Regional Customers
National Raw materials
International Components
Finished Products
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
Modes of Transport
- Electronic
- Roads
- Rail
- Air
- Port
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
Rail
Increasingly important local, regional, national, passenger and freight
Growth in passengers by 2020– East Midlands to London 27 per cent
– Nottingham to Birmingham 42 per cent
– Freight growth even higher!
Source Network Rail
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
Existing Rail Infrastructure
- Midland Mainline - Poor alignment and slow - Capacity issues, particularly
South of Kettering
- Cross Country Services = Slow
- Increasing freight demand and new infrastructure to East Coast, Port and “Electric Spine” to Southampton
New freight depot and East Midlands Airport
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
HS2 = is about capacity
Capacity = 21st century technology
21st century technology = HS2
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
Key issues for businesses
1. Access to the region from – London– Other regions– Airports– Ports
2. Image of the region as being well-connected
3. Connectivity within the region and particularly to the new Hub Station
4. Infrastructure to support sustained growth
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
HS2 itself will give an immediate boost for its economy
Y route = 139,000 total construction job years
Rolling stock employer = 73,500 total job years
Source Albion Economics
HS2 – Essential for Connectivity
George Cowcher, Chief ExecutiveDerbyshire & Nottinghamshire
Chamber of Commerce
Maximising the Economic Benefits of the East Midlands HS2 Station at Toton
Chris CarterTransport Strategy Manager
Volterra Study Key Findings
Commissioned by:• Nottingham City Council• Nottinghamshire County Council• Broxtowe Borough Council• Derbyshire County Council
Funded by the Growth Point Partnership
Study objectives• The case for locating the East Midlands Hub
station at Toton• Quantify the boost to inward investment, jobs
and other economic benefits• The value of improving connectivity to other
Core Cities and elsewhere• The regeneration potential around the
proposed station site
The case for Toton
• £500 million (60 yr PV) extra benefits over Derby Midland as next best option
• £190 million in additional revenue
• Extra benefits coming from being located between Derby and Nottingham
• 8,500 passengers per day (48% new passengers)
Quantified economic benefits
• Of the £70.9bn economic benefits at national level benefits to the East Midlands = £5.4bn (Source: HS2 Business Case)
• Of £15bn per annum economic productivity uplift £1.1bn-£2.2bn to accrue to the Derby/Nottingham area (2.2%-4.3%) increase in economic output (Source: KPMG)
Employment• 89,000 FTE jobs nationally• 13,350 of these in the East Midlands• Opportunities in planning, design, construction, rolling
stock manufacture, operations and maintenance• Valued at £575m pa, 60 yr NPV of £7bn• Half of national employment in rolling stock
manufacturing in the East Midlands, two thirds of which is in Derby.
• Potentially up to 2,500 jobs in Derby• Staveley depot 80 FTE construction jobs and 500 once
operational
Connectivity benefits
• Increase in labour connectivity of 14.3%• Business connectivity of 23.2%• Eight out of ten largest cities connected• Transformational journey time saving to
Birmingham• Transformational journey time saving to Leeds
Regeneration potential• Current land allocated for development at the site could
generate 650 – 875 new dwellings and up to 20,000 sqm of commercial floorspace (200 jobs in construction and 1,500 jobs when complete)
• Major sites nearby including Stanton Ironworks and Strategic Rail Freight Interchange could deliver over 4,000 dwellings and 10,000 new jobs
• Development along the tram corridor 2,000 dwellings and 180,000 sqm of commercial development
• Potential direct links to Enterprise Zone, University of Nottingham Main Campus, QMC and NG2 business park.
Key findings• HS2 has great potential to deliver significant
economic benefits to the region.• Scale of success dependent on connectivity.• Certainty about service patterns on released
capacity required. ‘Any reduction in direct rail services to Nottingham could deal a heavy blow to the City’s economic development and have implications for the wider D2N2 economy’.
• Continued investment in transport up to introduction of HS2 must take place.
Key findings• Station will impact across administrative
boundaries therefore critical integrated approach is adopted to facilitate growth.
• Certainty, flexibility and collaboration key to attracting investment around Toton site (residential ahead of commercial).
• Skills development key to maximising HS2 employment benefits.
Recommendations for further study• Further analysis on the options for capacity
release and the associated benefits• Furthering the evidence base around step
change impacts• Maximising the impacts of Staveley depot
Maximising the economic potential of HS2
Andrew PritchardDirector of Policy & Infrastructure
View from the Top...
“The East Midlands is the ‘bell weather’of the UK Economy”
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England (28th August 2013 )
Economic Growth Opportunities
Manufacturing GVA £13.2 billion Highest proportion of manufacturing employment 20% of total GVA exported Highest proportion of exports to Asia & Oceania
Proportion of Manufacturing Employment 2012 (ONS)
Competitive Advantages…
Transport equipment manufacturing (26,000 jobs, £2.4 billion GVA)
Food & drink manufacturing (57,000 jobs, £3.6 billion of GVA)
Construction (60,000 jobs, £5.9 billion GVA)
Other Strengths…
Power generating machinery
Life Sciences Logistics Low carbon goods
& services Visitor economy
Housing Growth Opportunities…
Plans for 400,000 homes over the next 20 years
Eastern Diamond 3 Cities Northamptonshire Arc Other local growth
opportunities
Investment Corridors
HS2 has the potential to boost our local economies through:
Improving connectivity to London, Birmingham and the northern core cities;
Releasing capacity on existing rail lines for more services;
Creating jobs in our highly competitive transport engineering sector.
BUT…
…we have to get it right:
Mitigate local impacts of both the station & track through excellent design;
A multi-model Hub Station – not a parkway Use released capacity creatively Continue to invest in MML and ECML Give local companies a fair chance to bid for
contracts to build HS2 and rolling stock High quality city centre connectivity to both Hub
station and HS2 itself
MML/HS2 Connectivity: Arup Study
Connections at Hub Station giving direct access from Derby, Leicester & Nottingham heading north
Connection between Nottingham and HS2 heading to Birmingham
Connection between HS2 and MML at Killamarsh north of Chesterfield
With ‘ classic compatible’ trains…
Leicester to Leeds in 50 minutes; Nottingham to Birmingham in less than 30
minutes; Derby to Leeds in 50 minutes…
…transforming connectivity across the midlands and the north
And finally….
The construction of the HS2 line and rolling stock will require large numbers of well trained engineers & construction workers;
We need to start gearing up for this now –if not we will end importing people from abroad
An HS2 Skills Academy? Based in Derby?
Discussion:How can we make the most of HS2 in the
East Midlands?