ICES advice as of 30th June 2014

Nick Bailey, Coby Needle, Helen Dobby, Emma HatfieldMarine Scotland - Science

North Sea overview 2014 State Advice (for 2015)

Stock F SSB Landing % Basis Note

Cod 26713 -20 Man Plan long term phase of planHaddock* 48176 8 MSY combined areas. Recent recruitments smallWhiting 13678 -15 Man Plan North Sea part. SSB low and recruitment low Saithe* 72854 -15 Man Plan Recruitment low, SSB below trigger levelPlaice 128376 15 EU man plan biomass increase, F low, recruitment aveSole 10973 -8 EU man plan F still just above targetHerring 429797 -9 man plan F low, biomass declining slightlySprat 227000 58* MSY F decreasing SSB at Bpa high recruitment

NephropsFladen 10759 NA MSY Biomass just above trigger, low harvest rate

Forth 1769 NA MSY Biomass above trigger, harvest rate below targetMoray 1185 NA MSY Biomass above trigger, harvest rate below target

Farn 983 NA MSY stock below trigger and harvest rate too highInc all other 17699 14Other (data limited)BrillDab Generally same advice as last Flounder year for these stocks. Turbot adviceGrey Gurnard reducedLemon soleTurbotWitch

North Sea cod

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

F (a

ges

2-4)

Fishing Mortality FmsyFpaFlim

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Rec

ruitm

ent i

n m

illio

ns

Recruitment (age 1)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

SSB

in 1

000

t

Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa MSY BtriggerBlim

0

100

200

300

400

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Land

ings

in 1

000

t

Total removalsUnaccountedDiscardsLandings

North Sea cod

• Retrospective pattern– Indicates “same outcome as last year”

North Sea cod

Georges Bank yellowtail flounder

North Sea cod

• Discarding remained high in 2013

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

(b) Proportion discarded at age (by number)

age 1

age 2

age 3

age 4

North Sea cod

• Increasingly northerly distribution

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

cod 1983-1988: length > 30 cm

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

cod 2010-2014: length > 30 cm1983-88 2010-14

North Sea cod

• Retrospective pattern• Discarding still high in 2013• More northerly distribution• F still declining and SSB still rising• Recruitment remains low

• Management plan (EU-Norway):– Catch 2015 = 35 486 t– Landings 2015 = 26 713 t– 20% reduction on 2014 TAC

• MSY approach:– 61% reduction on 2014 TAC

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

cod 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

North Sea whiting

North Sea whiting

• Still no agreed reference points• Management plan (EU-Norway):

– Catch 2015 = 28 317 t– Landings 2015 = 17 190 t– 15% reduction on 2014 TAC

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

whiting 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

North Sea plaice

North Sea plaice

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

plaice 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

Total = 10821 fish

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

plaice 1983-1992: length > 30 cm

Total = 9913 fish

1983-92 2005-14

North Sea plaice

• Very abundant, historical maximum• Management plan (EU-Norway):

– Catch 2015 = 179 301 t– Landings 2015 = 128 376 t– 15% increase on 2014 TAC

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

plaice 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

Northern Shelf haddock

Northern Shelf haddock• Now assessed as a single stock• MSY approach:

– Catch 2015 = 54 580 t– Landings 2015 = 48 176 t– 8% increase on 2014 TACs

• ICES yet to advise on area TAC split

-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2

5254

5658

6062

haddock 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

haddock 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

Northern Shelf saithe

Northern Shelf saithe

• Management plan (EU-Norway):– Catch 2015 = 80 097 t– Landings 2015 = 72 854 t– 14.9% decrease on 2014 TAC

• Two years of discard estimates from EU fleets used in advice: time series too short to use in assessment. Norwegian discard rates assumed 0%.

-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2

5254

5658

6062

saithe 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

saithe 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

North Sea herring

North Sea herring

• Stock considered to be in low productivity phase although above SSB trigger

• F is below Fmsy• Recruitment generally low in recent years because

overwinter survival since 2002 remains poor• Advice is for catches of 429 727 t in human consumption

fleet (9% reduction on 2014 TAC)

North Sea sprat

North Sea sprat

• Stock has been at or above Bpa since 2005. SSB in 2013 is estimated to be at Bpa

• Fishing mortality has shown an overall decreasing trend since 2004

• Recruitment in 2013 is estimated to be one of the highest in the time-series

• Advice for 2014-2015 is landings of 227 000 t (58% increase on 2013-2014 advice)

Fladen Nephrops

1995 2000 2005 2010

020

0040

0060

0080

00

Stock Abundance

Year

Abu

ndan

ce (m

illio

ns)

Abundance

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Catches

020

0060

0010

000

1400

0

LandingsDiscards

Catches

1995 2000 2005 2010

02

46

810

Harvest rate

Year

Rep

orte

d H

arve

st R

ate

%Harvest rate

Catches 2015 no more than 10 759 tonnesAll catches landed

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Catches

050

010

0015

0020

0025

00

LandingsDiscards

Moray Firth Nephrops

Catches

1995 2000 2005 2010

020

040

060

080

0

Stock Abundance

Year

Abu

ndan

ce (m

illio

ns)

Abundance

1995 2000 2005 2010

05

1015

2025

30

Harvest rate

Year

Rep

orte

d H

arve

st R

ate

%

Harvest rate

Landings 2015 no more than 1185 tonnes

1995 2000 2005 2010

020

060

010

00

Stock Abundance

Year

Abu

ndan

ce (m

illio

ns)

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Catches

010

0020

0030

00

LandingsDiscards

Firth of Forth Nephrops

Abundance

1995 2000 2005 2010

010

2030

4050

Harvest rate

Year

Rep

orte

d H

arve

st R

ate

%

Harvest rate

Catches

Landings 2015 no more than 1769 tonnes

Farn Deeps Nephrops

AbundanceCatches

Harvest rate

Landings 2015 no more than 983 tonnes

North Sea Nephrops

• General improvement in North Sea Nephrops• Increases in abundance and reduced harvest rates in

Scottish FUs – advice for increased TACs• Fishery at Fladen taking some time to get back to

‘normal’ • Other FUs are data limited• Advice overall – 14% increase (excl N Deeps)

Mixed fishery advice – North Sea

West Coast overview 2014West Coast 2014

State Advice (for 2015)

Stock F SSB Landing % Basis Note

Cod 0 MSY and Prec Low SSB, High F, poor recruitmentHaddock* Combined with N seaWhiting 0 Low SSB but slowly increasing, F low, some good recruitmentsMegrim* 5950 0 MSY Combined with N Sea. Same advice as last yearRockall haddock 2930 ++ MSY Biomass declining, F just above target, improved recruitmentRockall megrim ? Advice in autumnAnglerfish ? Advice in autumnHake 78457 -4 MSY High SSB, F just above Fmsy, good recent recruitmentHerring 22690 -19 Man Plan Biomass low, F just above target, recruitments low

Nephrops ? Advice in autumnNorth Minch ? Advice in autumnSouth Minch ? Advice in autumn

Clyde ? Advice in autumnInc other ? Advice in autumn

West Coast cod

West Coast cod

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

5254

5658

6062

cod 1983-1992: length > 30 cm

Total = 1788 fish

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

5254

5658

6062

cod 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

Total = 1008 fish

1983-92 2005-14

West Coast cod

• Status unchanged. • F continues to be very high and SSB very low• Recruitment low since 2001 and considered impaired• Discards account for 80% of catches• Advice is for no directed fishery and minimise discards

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

5254

5658

6062

cod 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

Total = 1008 fish

West Coast whiting

West Coast whiting

• Current stock situation poor but showing improvements• F is very low ,SSB beginning to increase (around Blim)• Recruitment has improved in last few years• Discards account for high proportion of catches• Advice is still for no directed fishery and minimise

discards

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

5254

5658

6062

whiting 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

Total = 6114 fish

Rockall haddock

Rockall haddock

• Stock has declined in recent years• F is fairly low (just above target) and SSB currently

declining• A couple of better recruitments in recent years should

see stock improve• Measures to reduce discards of incoming year classes

should be developed• Advice is for landings of 2930 t (this represents a 142%

increase on current TAC)

West Coast & northern North Sea megrim

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1985 1991 1997 2003 2009

F/FMSY Fmsy

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1985 1991 1997 2003 2009

B/BMSY

Blim

MSYBtrigger

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1985 1991 1997 2003 2009

Catches

Discards

LandingsSame advice as last year: landings of 5950 t (3 % below current TAC)

Catches

F/FMSY B/BMSY

Northern hake

Northern hake

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

hake 2005-2014: length > 30 cm

Total = 2812 fish

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

5254

5658

6062

hake 1983-1992: length > 30 cm

Total = 513 fish

Northern hake

• Stock has been very high in recent years• F has decreased but still above target• Stock predicted to increase again following recent high

recruitment• Advice is for landings of 78 457 t (this represents a 4%

reduction on current TAC)

West Coast herring

West Coast herring

• Stock considered to be stable but at a low level compared to the past

• F is fluctuating (around target) and SSB above trigger level

• Recruitment at a low level in recent years• Management plan advice is for landings of 22690

(reduction of 19% on 2014 TAC)

Blue Ling

Blue Ling

• Stock in good shape• F has been falling for some time, now below Fmsy• Biomass increasing• Recruitment relatively stable throughout time series• Based on MSY approach, catches 2015 not more than

5046 (29% increase)

Ling

Ling

• Stock in quite good shape,• Increasing catch rates imply improving stock biomass• New data do not change general perception• Data limited approach, advice the same as last year• 10 800 tonnes (III, IV, VI, VII, VIII, XII, XIV)

Tusk

Tusk

• Stocks generally in quite good shape• Various stock units including ‘other’ areas (includes IV

and VI)• New data do not change perception of stock• Advice for ‘other’ in 2012 was for 2 years• Based on data limited approach advice is for catches no

more than 8500 tonnes

Greater Forkbeard

Greater Forkbeard

• Data limited stock• Based on 4 survey series – stock increasing in recent

years• Large increase (86%) between 2009-11 and 2012-13• Under data limited rules implies an increase in catch of

20% compared to average of last three years – so a TAC of 2628

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010F

SSB

FSSB

FSSB

FSSB

FFladen SSB

FForth of Forth SSB

FMoray Firth SSB

Note: Reference points for whiting not defined

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010F

SSB

FSSB

FSSB

FSSB

FNorth Minch SSB

FSouth Minch SSB

FClyde SSB

Note: Reference points for whiting not defined

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010F

SSB

FSSB

FSSB

FSSB

Note: Reference points for anglerfish not defined; Assessment and reference points for mackerel under review

Cod

Haddock

Plaice

Herring

Nephrops

North Sea

Cod

Haddock

Rockall haddock

Herring

Nephrops

Hake

Saithe

Megrim

West Coast

Widely Distributed

Mackerel

Statussummary