Indian Nuclear Forces

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Indian Nuclear Forces


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Nuclear Weapons

Background

India's nuclear weapons program was started at the Bhabha Atomic Research Center inTrombay. In the mid-1950s India acquired dual-use technologies under the "Atoms forPeace" non-proliferation program, which aimed to encourage the civil use of nucleartechnologies in exchange for assurances that they would not be used for militarypurposes. There was little evidence in the 1950s that India had any interest in a nuclearweapons program, according to Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace (1). Under the "Atoms for Peace" program, India acquired a Cirus 40MWt heavy-water-moderated research reactor from Canada and purchased from the U.S.the heavy water required for its operation. In 1964, India commissioned a reprocessingfacility at Trombay, which was used to separate out the plutonium produced by the Cirusresearch reactor. This plutonium was used in India's first nuclear test on May 18, 1974,

described by the Indian government as a "peaceful nuclear explosion."

According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, India began work on a thermonuclearweapon in the 1980s. In 1989, William H. Webster, director of the CIA, testified beforethe Senate Governmental Affairs Committee that "indicators that tell us India isinterested in thermonuclear weapons capability." India was purifying lithium, producingtritium and separating lithium isotopes. India had also obtained pure beryllium metalfrom West Germany (2).

Testing

After 24 years without testing India resumed nuclear testing with a series of nuclearexplosions known as "Operation Shatki." Prime Minister Vajpayee authorized the tests onApril 8, 1998, two days after the Ghauri missile test-firing in Pakistan.

On May 11, 1998, India tested three devices at the Pokhran underground testing site,followed by two more tests on May 13, 1998. The nuclear tests carried out at 3:45 pm onMay 11th were claimed by the Indian government to be a simultaneous detonation ofthree different devices - a fission device with a yield of about 12 kilotons (KT), athermonuclear device with a yield of about 43 KT, and a sub-kiloton device. The twotests carried out at 12:21 pm on May 13

thwere also detonated simultaneously with

reported yields in the range of 0.2 to 0.6 KT.

However, there is some controversy about these claims. Based on seismic data, U.S.government sources and independent experts estimated the yield of the so-calledthermonuclear test in the range of 12-25 kilotons, as opposed to the 43-60 kiloton yieldclaimed by India. This lower yield raised skepticism about India's claims to havedetonated a thermonuclear device.
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Observers initially suggested that the test could have been a boosted fission device, ratherthan a true multi-stage thermonuclear device. By late 1998 analysts at LawrenceLivermore National Laboratory had concluded that the India had attempted to detonate athermonuclear device, but that the second stage of the two-stage bomb failed to ignite asplanned.

TEST DEVICE DATEYIELDclaimed

YIELDreported

Fission device 18 May 1974 12-15 kiloton 4-6 kiloton

Shakti 1 Thermonuclear device 11 May 1998 43-60 kiloton 12-25 kiloton

Shakti 2 Fission device 11 May 1998 12 kiloton ??

Shakti 3 Low-yield device 11 May 1998 0.2 kiloton low



India's Nuclear Arsenal

Though India has not made any official statements about the size of it nuclear arsenal, theNRDC estimates that India has a stockpile of approximately 30-35 nuclear warheads andclaims that India is producing additional nuclear materials. Joseph Cirincione at theCarnegie Endowment for International Peace (3) estimates that India has producedenough weapons-grade plutonium for 50-90 nuclear weapons and a smaller but unknownquantity of weapons-grade uranium. Weapons-grade plutonium production takes place atthe Bhabha Atomic Research Center, which is home to the Cirus reactor acquired fromCanada, to the indigenous Dhruva reactor, and to a plutonium separation facility.

According to a Jan. 2001 Department of Defense report, "India probably has a smallstockpile of nuclear weapon components and could assemble and deploy a few nuclearweapons within a few days to a week." A 2001 RAND study by Ashley Tellis asserts thatIndia does not have or seek to deploy a ready nuclear arsenal.

According to a report in Jane's Intelligence Review (4), India's objective is to have anuclear arsenal that is "strategically active but operationally dormant", which wouldallow India to maintain its retaliatory capability "within a matter of hours to weeks, whilesimultaneously exhibiting restraint." However, the report also maintains that, in thefuture, India may face increasing institutional pressure to shift its nuclear arsenal to a

fully deployed status.

Doctrine

India has a declared nuclear no-first-use policy and is in the process of developing anuclear doctrine based on "credible minimum deterrence." In August 1999, the Indiangovernment released a draft of the doctrine which asserts that nuclear weapons are solelyfor deterrence and that India will pursue a policy of "retaliation only." The document also
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maintains that India "will not be the first to initiate a nuclear first strike, but will respondwith punitive retaliation should deterrence fail" and that decisions to authorize the use ofnuclear weapons would be made by the Prime Minister or his 'designated successor(s).'"

According to the NRDC, despite the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan in

2001-2002, India remains committed to its nuclear no-first-use policy. But an Indianforeign ministry official told Defense News in 2000 that a "'no-first-strike' policy doesnot mean India will not have a first-strike capability."

India has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) or the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India is a member of the International Atomic EnergyAgency (IAEA), and four of its 13 nuclear reactors are subject to IAEA safeguards.

Despite promoting a test ban treaty for decades, India voted against the UN GeneralAssembly resolution endorsing the CTBT, which was adopted on September 10, 1996.India objected to the lack of provision for universal nuclear disarmament "within a time-

bound framework." India also demanded that the treaty ban laboratory simulations. Inaddition, India opposed the provision in Article XIV of the CTBT that requires India'sratification for the treaty to enter into force, which India argued was a violation of itssovereign right to choose whether it would sign the treaty. In early February 1997,Foreign Minister Gujral reiterated India's opposition to the treaty, saying that "Indiafavors any step aimed at destroying nuclear weapons, but considers that the treaty in itscurrent form is not comprehensive and bans only certain types of tests."
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JAGUAR (BREGUET, BAe)

GENERAL DATA

Countries of Origin. France, UK.Similar Aircraft. F-4 Phantom II, Mitsubishi F-1, MiG-27 Flogger, AMX.Crew. One; trainer--two.

Role. Strike, fighter, trainer.Armament. Cannon, rockets, bombs, missiles.Dimensions. Length: 51 ft (15.54 m). Span: 28 ft (8.54 m).

DESCRIPTIONWings. High-mounted, swept-back, and modified delta with blunt tips.Engine(s). Two turbofans mounted to the rear of the cockpit. Rectangular air intakes onsides of cockpit. Engine exhausts show prominently under the forward portion of the tail.Fuselage. Long, pointed, chiseled nose. Body widens at the air intakes rectangular to theexhausts. Overhanging tail section. Two belly fins. Bubble canopy.Tail. Tail flats and fin are swept-back and tapered with square tips. Flats are mid-mounted on the fuselage with a negative slant.

USER COUNTRIESEcuador, France, India, Nigeria, Oman, UK.


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MiG-27 FLOGGER D, J (MIKOYAN-GUREVICH)

GENERAL DATACountry of Origin. CIS (formerly USSR).

Similar Aircraft. MiG-23 Flogger B/E/G, F-111, Tornado, Su-24 Fencer, Mirage F1,Super Etendard, Jaguar.Crew. One.Role. Ground-attack, fighter.Armament. Missiles, bombs, rockets, cannon.Dimensions. Length: 55 ft (16.6 m). Span: 46 ft, 9 in (14.26 m).

WEFT DESCRIPTIONWings. High-mounted, variable, swept-back, and tapered with blunt tips.Engine(s). One inside the body. Rectangular box-like air intakes forward of the wingroots. Single exhaust.Fuselage. Long and tubular, except where air intakes give a box-like appearance. Long,

downward-sloping, sharply pointed nose. Stepped canopy. Large, swept-back, andtapered belly fin under the rear section.Tail. Swept-back and tapered tail fin with curved dorsal in leading edge and angular tip.Swept-back and tapered flats high-mounted on the fuselage with angular tips.

USER COUNTRIES

Belarus, CIS, India, Kazakhstan.


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USER COUNTRIESBelarus, CIS, Germany, People's Republic of China, Ukraine.


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MIRAGE 2000 (DASSAULT-BREGUET)

GENERAL DATA

Country of Origin. France.Similar Aircraft. Mirage III/5, Kfir, Viggen.Crew. One; Mirage 2000N--two.

Role. Interceptor.Armament. Missiles, cannon.Dimensions. Length: 50 ft, 3 in (15.3 m). Span: 29 ft, 5 in (9 m).

WEFT DESCRIPTIONWings. Low-mounted delta with clipped tips.Engine(s). One turbofan mounted in the fuselage. Semicircular air intakes alongside thefuselage forward of the wings. Large, single exhaust protrudes past the tail.Fuselage. Tube-shaped with pointed nose and a bubble canopy.Tail. No tail flats. Fin is swept-back and tapered with a clipped tip.

USER COUNTRIES

Egypt, France, Greece, India, Peru, Quatar, United Arab Emirates.


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Prithvi

The Prithvi was India's first indigenously developed ballistic missileproduced by the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program

(IGMDP). It is a road-mobile, short range ballistic missile (SRBM)powered by a single-stage, two engines, and liquid-fuel. Development ofthe Prithvi began in 1983, and it was first tested fired on February 25,1988. The three versions of the Prithvi have been tested twenty timessince.The Prithvi is not a particularly sophisticated missile, incorporatingpropulsion technology derived from the Soviet SA-2 surface-to-air

missile. According to the Carnengie Endowment for International Peace "Given thePrithvi's range, its role would be restricted to use against Pakistan."

The Prithvi is India's only deployed nuclear capable missile. Two versions are now in

service and a third is under development.

Prithvi-I has a 150 km range and a 1,000 kg payload. It has been in army servicesince 1994 and is capable of striking roughly a quarter of Pakistani territory,including Islamabad and most other major cities.

Prithvi-II has a 250 km range and a 500-750 kg payload. It is currently in AirForce service and could strike at least half of Pakistan, including almost allimportant military targets and all major cities. It was first test-fired on January 27,1996.

Prithvi-III , which has a 350 km range and a 1,000 kg payload, is currently underdevelopment. It is a longer-range, naval version of the Prithvi and is also referred

to as the Dhanush. Prithv-III was first successfully tested September 21, 2001,and according to statements made by India's ministry of Defense, it will soon beoperationalized and integrated into the Indian Navy. (See the Dhanush page formore details.)

The Prithvi-I is relatively small, 8.55 meters long and 1.1 meters in diameter. It weighs4,000-4,500 kg. India has demonstrated its ability to launch the Prithvi from mobilelaunchers through at least two test fires by artillery personnel. It was paraded in mobilelaunchers during India's Republic Day parade in January 1996.

Despite US pressure on India to halt the program, serial production of Prithvi-I began at

Bharat Dynamic Limited sometime between mid-1994 and 1997. An estimated 75 Prithviwarheads have been produced.

The Indian army is reluctant to incorporate the Prithvi-I into its practices largely becauseof its lack of precision and the difficulties associated with its liquid fuel. The Prithvi isreported to have a relatively high circular error probable (CEP) -- 300 meters at 150 kmrange and 500 meters at 250 km range, (0.2 percent of the range). There have beenreports of plans by the Indian Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO)
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to install Global Positioning System (GPS) units on the Prithvi, in order to reduce its CEPto about 75 meters.

The Prithvi's liquid fuel poses liabilities as a delivery system. The liquid propellantmixture is highly volatile and corrosive and must be loaded just prior to launch.

SpecificationsDesignation Prithvi

Range kmPrithvi-1 = 150Prithvi-2 = 250Prithvi-3 = 350

Length meters 8.55

Width meters 1.1

Payload kgPrithvi-1 = 1,000Prithvi-2 = 500-750Prithvi-3 = 1,000

Weight kg. 4,000 - 4,500

Guidance Inertial + Terminal

Propulsion Liquid


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Sagarika / Dhanush

DRDO may also be developing a 300-km submarine-launched ballistic missile, Sagarika,based on the Prithvi. The program is reported to have started in 1992 and was originally

reported to involve adapting a ramjet engine to the missile to reduce the need for heavyoxidizers. India does not have a submarine configured for launching ballistic missiles. (1)

According to other reports, India is developing the Dhanush (Bow, as in "bow and arrow"not the bow of the ship) submarine launched ballistic missile. With a range variouslyestimated at between 300 km and 350 km, this missile which would be later deployed onsurface warships. It is unclear whether this missile would be deployed on India's newnuclear missile submarine.

Danush is a medium range indigenously developed ship-launched missile exclusivelydeveloped for the Navy. The Dhanush project is sometimes considered the Naval version

of the Prithvi, though this may represent a program analog rather than any technologicalrelationship.There are two versions of the 8.56 meter long Dhanush missile under development. Onesuch version, having a range of 250 km. This short-range missile will be used as an anti-ship weapon. The Indian Navy is apparently seeking another variant of the Dhanushsurface-to-surface ballistic missile that is capable of striking land targets within a rangeof 500 km. The longer-range missile will have propulsion fuel similar to its short-rangeversion.

Testing of this missile was originally planned to begin in December 1998. The first flighttest of the Dhanush was conducted on 11 April 2000 from INS Subhadra, close to the

Orissa coast in the Bay of Bengal. The missile flew for only four seconds and broke intotwo pieces, barely managing to clear the ship. The launch was dubbed a "technologydemonstrator" and several more missile tests may be required to make this weapon battle-worthy.

With the development of Dhanush still at an early stage, the debate on cruise versusballistic missiles has revived within the Navy.

The precise relationship between the Dhanush and the Sagarika programs remainsobscure. Given the evident similarities in their overall characteristics, Dhanush maysimply be the new name for the original Sagarika system. However, since the Dhanush is

reported by some sources to have a 350 km range, compared to the 250-300 km range ofthe Sagarika, the change in designation may reflect a design change.
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Agni

In May 1989, India test-fired its first intermediate-range ballistic missile,the Agni. It is a two-stage missile with the first stage using the first-stage

solid-fuel booster motor of the SLV-3 satellite launch vehicle. This markedthe first time that India had used directly a component of its civilian spaceresearch program for military purposes. (12)The second stage is possibly ashortened version of the Prithvi. (13)The 18-meter long, 7.5-ton Agni has arange of up to 2,500 km (allowing access to southern China) and is capableof delivering a 1,000-kg payload. Although accuracy is reduced withincreased range, the Agni is believed to be fairly accurate, employing a

closed-loop inertial guidance system, said to have been developed with a great deal ofWest German assistance. (14) The second experimental flight of Agni was conducted inMay 1992 but the mission objective could not be achieved fully. The post flight analysiswas carried out and necessary modifications were incorporated for the next flight test. A

second successful test of the Agni occurred in February 1994, firing at a sea-based target1,200 km into the Bay of Bengal. The last test of Agni-1 in 1994 was tested at a trajectorydesigned to simulate a range of 2500km, with an actual range achieved of 1450km.

In 1994, the United States persuaded India to suspend testing of the Agni missile afterthree test flights.

India refers to the Agni not as a weapon system but as a "technology demonstratorproject" to establish re-entry vehicle technologies. (15) As with the Prithvi, the U.S. hasopposed the program as another potential proliferation affront to the MTCR, which Indiahas criticized as biased in favor of the major powers. Notwithstanding its justifications

for the Agni development, India formally suspended the program at the end of 1995. (16)Whether the suspension is real and the result of diplomatic pressure, technical problems,or other factors, is not evident. India may have decided to put the Agni under wraps untilit decides the larger related issue of whether to test nuclear (perhaps thermonuclear)warheads for its missiles in the face of US and other diplomatic pressures to sign theComprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the ratification process for which began in the fall of1996. (17) In March 1997 Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda indicated that India wouldnot give up the development of the Agni missile programme, a position echoed in July byDefense Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, who denied that India had any immediate plansto further test fire the Agni missile. (17a)

India's turning point came when an openly pro-nuclear government took office in March1998. The new coalition elected to power pledged, in the words of A.B. Vajpayee, to"exercise all options, including the nuclear option." The new government announced thata new version of the Agni with an extended range was under development.
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Agni-II

Authorization for the development of the longer range Agni-II was given by the BJP-ledcoalition government in March 1998. The Agni-II uses a solid propellant second stagereplacing the liquid propellant Prithvi short range missile used as upper stage of the Agni-

I. It can be launched within 15 minutes as compared to almost half a day of preparationfor the earlier version of the Agni. Another major development is a highly mobileplatform for it to be transported secretly by rail or road anywhere in the country. The farmore accurate terminal navigation and guidance system that the Agni II incorporates,which constantly updates information about the missile flight path using ground-basedbeacons, improved accuracy by a factor of at least three over that of the Agni-I.

On 11 April 1999 India successfully test-fired the Agni-II ballistic missile, with a rangeof 2000-km. The missile was launched from the IC-4 pad at Wheeler Island, a newlaunch site on the Orissa coast in Balasore district. Splashdown was 2,000-2,100 km.(1,250 mi.) down range in the Bay of Bengal, on a trajectory designed to simulate a range

of 2800-3000km. The test had been in preparation since January 1999, but India delayedit in the hope of extracting concessions from the US. Pakistan responded on 14 April1999 with a test firing of its Ghauri II missile from the Jhelum region in northeastPakistan. After the successful Agni-II test, Indian Defense Minister George Fernandessaid the Agni missile was ready to go into production, though he didn't specify theproduction or deployment schedule. The cost of the Agni missiles is estimated at Rs. 20-35 crores [$4.5 million to $8 million] per copy. It is anticipated that India may deployseveral dozen of these missiles. Agni-2 has a theoretical ability to hit a target 3000kmaway with a 1000kg payload, and it is suggested that- a 200 kiloton 'boosted-fission'warhead has been designed for the Agni system. Should this be reduced to a 15-20kiloton system, the payload could be reduced to as little as 250kg.

Agni-III

Although the Agni-II does reach deep into China it still does not threaten its major cities.As of early 1999 India was reportedly developing a longer-range Agni-III with a 3,500-km reach, capable of engaging targets deeper inside China. Other reports sugges thatIndia is contemplating the development of the 5000 km range variant of the Agni, with asolid-fueled second stage. Although India has claimed that this missile will be used onlyto carry a conventional warhead, the cost of the system would be difficult to justify unlessused as a nuclear delivery vehicle.

As of early 2000 it was suggested that there were between 5 and 9 Agni-1 missiles inexistence, at least 1-2 Agni-2 and 2 prototypes of the Agni-3. These are all test modelswhich could be fitted with warheads and used in an emergency. BDL has the capacity toproduce up to 12 Agni IRBMs per year. It is believed that no real production has takenplace since neither the Agni-1 or the Agni-2 is the definitive production variant of theAgni system.


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Chronology

Early 1980s: Development of the IGMDP starts; problems hamper test-firing. May, 1989: Agni-I launch May, 1992: Agni-I launch, partial failure

Feb, 1994: Agni-I launched; five-year restraint period observed April 11, 1999: Agni-II, extended range version of Agni-I, successfully test-fired

with a re-entry launch vehicle.


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Surya

At least one source has reported that a 12,000-km range, 80,000-kg weight ballisticmissile, designated Surya, is also under development, but no confirmatory reports of such

activity have as yet been discovered. (1)

The status of the Surya [Sun] ICBM program is extremely unclear, with some reportindicating that the development of this system was initiated in 1994. Conflicting reportsregarding the Surya's configuration claim that it will be based on the components of thepolar space launch vehicle (PSLV) and the Agni IRBM, and that it will have a rangebetween 8000 and 12,000 kms. (2)
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Submarines

The Indian fleet numbers over 100 combat naval vessels, of which 15 are submarines, 2are aircraft carriers, and another 23 are destroyers and fast frigates. Problems with

funding and the lack of spare parts means that only about one-half of India's warships areoperable at any one time.A total of ten diesel-powered 'Project 877' submarines, known in India as the the EKM orSindhu class, have been built under a contract between Rosvooruzhenie and the IndianDefense Ministry, with the tenth unit delivered to India in 2000. This final unit was thefirst to be equipped with the Klab ZM-54E [SS-N-27] antiship cruise missiles with arange of 220 km. The first Kilo-class submarines of project 877 were built in the USSRin 1979. They have a displacement of 3,000 tonnes, a maximum diving depth of 300meters, speed of up to 18 knots, and is able to operate solo for 45 days with a crew of 53.These submarines have been criticized in India as being highly underpowered for aconventional boat.

India has a number of foreign-produced cruise missile systems in its arsenal, to includeExocet, Styx, Starbright, Sea Eagle, and perhaps the Russian Sunburn supersonic missile.It also has some indigenous cruise missile systems under development to include theSagarika and Lakshya variant. The Sagarika (Oceanic) began development in 1994 as asubmarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) which will have a range of at least 300 kms(a few claim 1000 kms); it is projected for deployment around 2005.

In January 1988 India leased for three years a Soviet nuclear powered attack submarineof the 670A Skat series (CHARLIE class by NATO classification) with eight Ametist(SS-N-7 Starbright) anti-ship missile launchers. In the Indian Navy the ship was calledChakra, and the submarine was manned by a Russian crew training Indian seamen to

operate it. Upon expiration of the ship leasing term in 1991, the submarine was returnedto Russia and decommissioned from the Russian Navy.

India has been working since 1985 to develop an indigenously constructed nuclear-powered submarine, one that is based on the Soviet Charlie II-class design, detaileddrawings of which are said to have been obtained from the Soviet Union in 1989. Thisproject illustrates India's industrial capabilities and weaknesses. The secretive AdvancedTechnology Vessel (ATV) project to provide nuclear propulsion for Indian submarineshas been one of the more ill-managed projects of India. Although India has the capabilityof building the hull and developing or acquiring the necessary sensors, its industry has
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been stymied by several system integration and fabrication problems in trying todownsize a 190 MW pressurized water reactor (PWR) to fit into the space availablewithin the submarine's hull. The Proto-type Testing Centre (PTC) at the Indira GandhiCentre For Atomic Research. Kalpakkam, will be used to test the submarine's turbinesand propellers. A similar facility is operational at Vishakapatnam to test the main turbines

and gear box.

According to some accounts India plans to have as many as five nuclear submarinescapable of carrying missiles with nuclear warheads. The Indian nuclear powered attacksubmarine design is said to have a 4,000-ton displacement and a single-shaft nuclearpower plant of Indian origin. Once the vessel is completed, it may be equipped withDanush/Sagarika cruise missiles and an advanced sonar system. However, according tosome analysts the most probable missile for the Indian submarine would be the Yahontanti-ship cruise missile designed by NPO Mashinostroyeniya.


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Indian Nuclear Forces