POLI 111: INTRODUCTION TO THE

STUDY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

Session 1-Public Opinion And

Participation

Lecturer: Dr. Evans Aggrey-Darkoh,

Department of Political Science

Contact Information: aggreydarkoh@ug.edu.gh

Session Overview

• The previous sessions have given us a firm background of the concept of political participation

• In this session we take a critical look at public opinion and political participation since it is one of the ways by which citizens express their opinions about the political system and its processes

• Thus, in this session, our emphasis is going to be on what is public opinion is and its role in a state

Session Outline

• This session addresses two major topics:

• Defining Public Opinion

• Polling

Topic One

DEFINING PUBLIC OPINION

Reading List

• Chapter 11 of Magstadt T.M. & Schotten P. M. (1996). Understanding Politics: Ideas, Institutions, and Issues. New York: St. Martin’s Press. Pg. 279-282

• Chapter 8 of Roskin M.G. et. al. (1991). Political Science: An Introduction 4th Ed. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall International Inc., 1991). Pg. 150-171

Public opinion consists of those opinions held by

private persons which governments find it prudent

to heed (Key, 1961: 14)

Public Opinion Defined

• As stated elsewhere in this course, political culture and public opinion are closely linked

• They are generally formed through the same influences, and they merge together in a way that makes it very difficult to judge where one leaves off and the other begins

• It must, however be noted that just as public opinion is not synonymous with political culture, it is not to be confused with individual opinion

• Public opinion refers to political and social issues, not private matters of taste

Public Opinion Defined (cont’d)

• According to Berry et al (2008), public opinion is simply the collective attitude of the citizens on a given issue in question – It is an implicit verbal response or answer that an individual

gives in reply to a particular stimulus in which some general question is raised.

• Thomas Magstadt and Peter Schotten (1996) also define public opinion as the aggregate of citizen preferences and judgments that influence the decisions and policies of government officials – In democratic states, public opinion obtains legitimacy from

the fact that government is responsible to those who elected it

– Public opinion derives its urgency from the fervent desire of most representatives and aspiring candidates to be elected

Public Opinion Defined (cont’d)

• Public opinion does not necessarily imply a strong, clear, united conviction of the masses

• There are subjects on which the majority of the people are united in their opinion, and when that is the case, public opinion has mighty force indeed

• In most cases, public opinion involves several groups of people, each group’s views in conflict with those of the other groups, plus a large number who are undecided, plus an even larger number with no opinion at all on the matter

• On most subjects, public opinion is an array of diverse ideas and attitudes concerning political and social issues that can change fairly quickly

• Public opinion differs from mere opinion in that the former must involve a judgment that has some bearing on the direction of public policy

Public Opinion Defined (cont’d)

• In a democracy, public opinion is so universally

held and sharply defined that elected officials

cannot ignore or contradict it and successfully

govern at the same time

• In most cases, public opinion comprises a mood of

dissatisfaction, anxiety, or approval regarding

some issues of national importance

• Even though public opinion provides the context

within which political leaders take decision, it

rarely dictates the content of those decisions

Public Opinion Defined (cont’d)

• Regarding most issues, measuring public opinion and gauging its influence can be very difficult and elusive.

• In democracies, five basic generalizations can usually hold: – that a significant number of citizens actually hold

preferences regarding particular issues and are not simply indifferent to them

– that is stable or has remained relatively fixed over a long period of time

– that it is unevenly distributed or lopsided in a particular direction

– that it is intensely felt by citizens – it is salient, meaning that citizens regard the issue or

policy in question as important compared to others

Public Opinion Defined (cont’d)

• The most vexed question that arises regarding public opinion is the extent to which public leaders ought to be dependent on citizen opinion when making important policy decisions

• Such a concern is heightened by the realization that in a democracy, public opinion often is less the result of rational judgment and more of a collection of feelings, guesses, and emotions made on the basis of very scanty information

Factors that Shape Public Opinion

• Public opinion is usually shaped by factors such as:

– educational background of individuals

– religion and region of origin

– age

– gender

– ethnic group

Factors that Shape Public Opinion (cont’d)

• It is argued that public opinion arises in response to specific issues and develops in the following manner: – An issue is injected into society by some concrete

social event, like the presentation of a new VAT bill

– The event stirs interest and discussion among primary groups

– An opinion leader emerges and his ideas become the focal point for discussion on the issue

– The ideas are simplified and generalized, and in this form are transmitted to other parts of the society, leading to widespread and general discussion of the matter

Factors that Shape Public Opinion (cont’d)

– Attitudes toward the issue are formed, mainly

from contact with others, and are heavily

influenced by the expectations individuals hold

about the behavior of others

– These attitudes are adjusted in the light of

experience until they reinforce the original

expectations, leading to strong feelings about

the issue

– Action occurs, based on the expectations and

attitudes that have been mobilized in this way

– Public opinion then dissipates

The Role of Public Opinion

• The role of public opinion is very difficult to define. In a democracy, elections provide formal means of popular control of government, but only very crude expression of public opinion

• An election can only register the verdict of the voters on an official’s overall performance; rarely is one issue so important that an election rides on its alone

• If opinion is running in one direction, it is rare that legislators and political generally will ignore it, so in this case public opinion provides some control

The Role of Public Opinion (cont’d)

• In many cases, public opinion is created, not followed, by the executive

• If elections provide only a foggy outlet for public opinion, and executives often lead rather than follow the will of the people, the more direct participation of interest groups, by the concerned citizens or lobbyists, often allows opinions to be expressed in crystal-clear terms

• In democracies, which provides freedom of expression and dissent in bold and dramatic form, strategies for bringing grievances to public attention can be very effective in exciting wide-spread sympathy for minorities who are denied certain rights

The Role of Public Opinion (cont’d)

• In nondemocratic states where dissent is frown upon, the effective mobilization of public opinion against the government can bring it down

• Mahatma Gandhi’s resort to non-violent means helped him mobilize public opinion to win independence for India

• Any government that resort to the excessive use of force will certainly be toppled if public opinion is mobilized against it

Topic Two

POLLING

Opinion Polling

• All governments make some effort to assess and analyze

public opinion. • In democratic states, public opinion on a variety of

issues is gauged and discussed freely, and efforts to identify the majority opinion on any particular issue are undertaken not only by public agencies but also by political parties and candidates, the media, various private organizations, universities, research institutes, and scholars

• Any effort to gauge the attitude of the public by means of a representative sample is called a survey or poll

• Published polls, particularly in election years, are prominent in today’s political landscape

Opinion Polling (cont’d)

• To determine how the public stands on a given issue, organizations rely on public opinion polling (canvassing citizens for their opinions)

• This has become the most popular and accurate means of defining and charting changes in public opinion

• The ubiquity of opinion polling serves as a testament to their usefulness to policymakers and candidates alike

Opinion Polling (cont’d)

• In developed democracies, public opinion polling has grown increasingly sophisticated

• Most polls ask individuals whether they approve or oppose of a statement or policy

• Some polls ask citizens to identify their preferences from among various policy alternatives

• Through such polling techniques, researchers predict the actions of a large population based on the answers given by a relatively small number of respondents

Techniques of Opinion Polls • The cheapest method is to mail out ballots to a

sample and tally the replies, but invariably, the people who are involved enough to make the effort to reply will not be representative of the sample

• Telephone polling can avoid this problem, but it rarely establishes sufficient rapport to obtain really candid replies

• The most dependable method is still the costly face-to-face interview – For reliable results, the interviewers should be

carefully selected and trained – But even this method has its own drawbacks – Because it is costly, it often puts pressure on the

pollster to make do with minimum number of interviewees

Techniques

of Opinion Polls (cont’d)

• In the preferred method of polling, a random

sampling of citizens is taken from among the

entire population (or universe) being polled

• It has been determined by statisticians that 1500

is an ideal number of respondents for polls

involving large numbers of people

Techniques of Opinion Polls

(cont’d)

• The goal of public opinion survey is to get candid

replies from a representative sample at a

minimum cost

• The problem of cost has still not been overcome

since the least expensive methods still tend to be

the least accurate

Importance of Public Opinion Polling

• Opinion polls contribute to the democratic process in several ways

• They bring into the public realm the voices of the people who would otherwise be unheard

• They are the only form of participation (apart from the ballot box itself) in which all count for one and none for more than one

• Polls are also based on direct contact by interviewers with the public; they get behind the group leaders who claim to speak on behalf the members

• Polls enable politicians to keep in touch with the popular mood and polls give some insight into the reasons for election results

Importance

of Public Opinion Polling (cont’d) • In election campaigns, polling has become future

oriented, used largely to determine what positions candidates ought to take, or how positions are to be advanced, or what political advertisement will project positive candidate images

• Opinion polls can also help to measure the popularity of a president and determine how much political influence the chief executive can wield on a wide range of political issues

• In short, opinion polls oil the wheels of democracy

Limitations of Opinion Polling

• Opinion polls construct, and even shape public

opinion at the same time as they measure it

• Polls may also be inaccurate because of lack of

candor on the part of some respondents

– Even though most polls are premised on

anonymity, voters for instance may not always

respond truthfully about how they intend to vote,

especially if they believe that their preferred

candidate may be perceived as unpopular or

irresponsible

Limitations

of Opinion Polling (cont’d) • A major limitation of polls, especially for election

forecasting, is the unpredictability of voter turnout

• Public opinion is also very volatile in the sense that it

is able to change quickly under the impact of events.

In short, nothing is permanent in public opinion;

volatility must therefore be taken into account

• Finally, a survey that is accurate in its overall results

cannot assure the same degree of reliability when

broken down into finer categories

– To get accurate reading, the sample must be large

enough to average out any quirks