Thayer Vietnam's Perspective on China-US Relations

8/20/2019 Thayer Vietnam's Perspective on China-US Relations

1/27

Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold:A Vietnamese Perspective on

China-U.S. Relations

Carlyle A. Thayer, Paper presented tonternational Con!erence on China-US Relations

in "lo#al Perspective sponsored #y the Ne$%ealand Contemporary China Research Centre ,Victoria University o! &ellin'ton, &ellin'ton,

Ne$ %ealand

(cto#er )-*, +


2/27

(/tline

• ntrod/ction

• Part The 0rame$or1 o! Vietnam2sRelations $ith China and the UnitedStates, **-*3

• Part + Vietnam2s Strate'icPartnerships $ith the 4a5or Po$ers,**3-+6

• Part 6 Vietnam2s Relations $ith Chinaand the United States, +6-

• Concl/sion


3/27

ntrod/ction

• ndependence, sel!-reliance,m/ltilaterali7ation and diversi8cationo! international relations and

proactive international inte'rationand cooperation

• 4a5or po$ers: China, R/ssia, ndia,

9apan and the United States• Cooperation and str/''le

• e!ence sel!-help


4/27

"oldiloc1s 4odel

• Not too hot – China-US coll/sion a'ainst Vietnam2s

interests• Not too cold

– Ne'ative impact on the re'ion andVietnam

• 9/st ri'ht – Vietnam can levera'e o; the dynamic

tensions


5/27

Part The 0rame$or1 o! Vietnam2sRelations $ith China and the United

States, **-*3

• *?*-*@

• ?th National Party Con'ress >9/ne

+@ – iversi!y and m/ltilaterali7e economic

relations $ith all co/ntries

– Re'ardless o! di;erent socio-politicalsystems

– Priority to USSR, China, ndia, NA4 andne$ !riends2

– Normali7e relations $ith the United


6/27

(pport/nities B Challen'es

• **@

– 4a1e !riends $ith all co/ntries

– nd/strialisation and modernisation


7/27

** Pivotal Dear

• Normalisation o! relations $ith theU.S. – U.S. 'rad/ally li!ts o#5ections to 40 and

&orld Ean1 !/ndin' !or Vietnam

• 4em#ership in AS


8/27

Part + Vietnam2s Strate'ic Partnerships$ith the 4a5or Po$ers, **3-+6

• **3@

– nternational economic cooperation – Strate'ic partnership F R/ssian

0ederation >+@

– US-Vietnam ne'otiations on Eilateral Trade A'reement

• Ninth National Party Con'ress >+@ – nd/strialisation and modernisation #y

++


9/27

Cooperation B Str/''le

•


10/27

Strate'ic Partnerships

• 9apan >+3@

• ndia >+?@

• China >+*@ /p'raded tocomprehensive strate'ic partnership>+@ – 9oint Steerin' Committee

• So/th China Sea Tensions +?-)and +*

• st e!ence Policy ialo'/e $ith theUS >+@


11/27


12/27

USS "eor'e &ashin'ton A/' +

USS 9ohn . StennisApril +*

USS 9ac1sonville >SSN 3**@,Paci8c Command, ec

+*

USS "eor'e H.&. E/sh A/'+

Sym#olic =y o/ts2


13/27

Strate'ic Partnerships

• So/th orea and Spain >+*@

• A/stralia Comprehensive Partnership>+*@

• United in'dom and "ermany >+@

• taly and 0rance >+6@

• Thailand, ndonesia and Sin'apore>+6@

• Ne'otiations $ith the Philippines

• R/ssia comprehensive strate'ic


14/27

Part 6 Vietnam2s Relations $ithChina and the United States,

+6-Vietnam-China Relations

• Comprehensive Strate'ic Cooperative

Partnership – ense net$or1 o! party, state and de!ence

mechanisms and hi'h-level eGchan'es

– 9oint Steerin' Committee !or Eilateral

Cooperation

• Easic Principles on "/idin' Settlemento! 4aritime ss/es >+@


15/27

Vietnam-China Relations+6

• e!ence Relations – "ood$ill naval port visits

– Strate'ic e!ence ialo'/e

– e!ence 4inistry hot line

– 9oint Naval patrols in "/l! o! Ton1in>Eei#/@

• President Tr/on' Tan San' state visit>9/ne@

• Premier Ii eJian' visits Hanoi

>(cto#er@


16/27

$23.7billion

defcitwithChina

K*.3#illions/rpl/s$ith the

US

VietNam F

US Trade

Relations


17/27

Vietnam-US Relations +6

• 9oint Statement on ComprehensivePartnership >9/ly +6@

– President Tr/on' Tan San' visits&ashin'ton

– Commitment on Trans-Paci8c

Partnership – Conver'ence on maritime sec/rity

• A'reement on Coast "/ardcooperation – US )million !/ndin !or atrol #oats

H *) C 4 + 9 3


18/27

H-*) Cr s s 4ay +-9/ y 3,+@

KN-951 rammed on June 23, 2014

May 26,

2014


19/27

Vietnam-China Relations

• Ieaders 4eetin'2 9oint Steerin'Committee >9/ne )@

• Special (cto#er 3-)@

• ?th 9oint Steerin' Committee meets>(cto#er +?@

• VCP Secretary "eneral to China >April+@


20/27

Vietnam-US Relations +

• nvitation to Vietnam2s 0orei'n4inister to visit &ashin'ton

postponed >4ay@• Polit#/ro mem#er Pham L/an' N'hivisits &ashin'ton >9/ly@

• 0orei'n 4inister Pham Einh 4inhvisits &ashin'ton >(cto#er@ – Secretary erry li!ts restrictions on sale

o! lethal $eapons on case-#y-case #asis


21/27

Vietnam-US Relations +

• Polit#/ro mem#er B 4inister o! P/#licSec/rity Tran ai L/an' visits

&ashin'ton >4arch@• Vietnam and US iss/e de!ence 9oint

Vision Statement in Hanoi >9/ne@

• Party Secrearty "eneral N'/yen Ph/ Tron' meets $ith President (#ama in(val (Mce >9/ly@, iss/e 9oint VisionStatement


22/27

+th National Party Con'ress

• 0irst J/arter + – Ieadership and relations $ith ChinaUS

• Chinese Sept +* held early@ – 4inister o! Plannin' and nvestment

attends

• China to re-open Cons/late in a Nan'•


23/27

A/ditionin' !or Vietnam2s0/t/re

• Threat o! peace!/l evol/tionco/ntertpoised $ith Threat o! Chineses/#version

• (#ama-Oi S/mmit in &ashin'ton>Septem#er +@ – Vietnam !ears coll/sion

• Vietnam to host visits #y (#ama andOi in Novem#er – Chinese press/re to m/te comments


24/27

Concl/sion

• Policy o! m/ltilaterali7ation anddiversi8cation o! eGternal relations

• Normalisation $ith China and US>** B **@ F opport/nities andchallen'es

•


25/27

China

9apan

USA

ndia


26/27

Concl/sion

• Strate'ic partnerships – Some /p'raded

• Comprehensive partnerships

• So/th China Sea F conver'ence insec/rity o/tloo1 #et$een Vietnamand US

• H *) /ndermined strate'ic tr/st

• "oldiloc1s model F not too hot, nottoo cold, 5/st ri'ht2


27/27

Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold:A Vietnamese Perspective on

China-U.S. Relations

Carlyle A. Thayer, Paper presented tonternational Con!erence on China-US Relations

in "lo#al Perspective sponsored #y the Ne$%ealand Contemporary China Research Centre ,

Victoria University o! &ellin'ton, &ellin'ton,Ne$ %ealand

(cto#er )-*, +

Documents

Thayer Vietnam's Perspective on China-US Relations