Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
M a y 1 2 , 2 0 1 5 !
The Public’s Take – The Economy
PAGE 2
TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S
Slide!
Current Economic Indicators! 3!
Economic Conditions and Views of the Future! 4!
Obama, Congress, and the Economy! 13!
Perceptions of Foreign Trade! 18!
Views on Income Inequality and Raising the Minimum Wage! 24!
Digital Snapshot on Raising Minimum Wage! 32!
PAGE 3
C U R R E N T E C O N O M I C I N D I C ATO R S S H O W I M P R O V E M E N T O V E R L A S T Y E A R
INDICATOR LAST YEARMay 2014
NOW May 2015
Unemployment Rate 6.3% 5.4%
Inflation Rate 1.5% -0.1%
Stock Market (DJIA) 16,583.34 18,191.11
Consumer Confidence Index 83.0 95.2
U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Yahoo! Finance, The Conference Board, Trading Economics
E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S A N D V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E !
PAGE 4
PAGE 5
M A J O R I T Y O F A M E R I C A N S C O N T I N U E TO F E E L T H E N AT I O N I S O N T H E W R O N G T R A C K
The percentage of Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50
in about a decade.!
RIGHT DIRECTION 29.5%
WRONG TRACK 59.7%
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 6, 2015
Source: CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey, March 26-29, 2015 PAGE 6
B U T A M E R I C A N S ’ V I E W S O F T H E E C O N O M Y A R E I M P R O V I N G S L I G H T LY
How would you rate the current state of the economy? Would you say it is excellent, good, only fair, or poor?!
33%
63% 70%60% 53% 55% 61%
49% 44% 40% 41% 33% 28% 29%
39%
29%25%
33% 39% 37% 30%40% 41% 42% 42%
48%44% 42%
22%6% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 9% 13% 15% 14% 17%
24% 25%
4% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Dec 2007
June 2008
Dec 2008
Dec 2009
Dec 2010
June 2011
Nov 2011
May 2012
Nov 2012
June 2013
Dec 2013
June 2014
Dec 2014
Mar 2015
ExcellentGoodOnly fairPoor
Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
Source: Gallup Poll, April 9-12, 2015 PAGE 7
10% 11%17% 21%
26% 30% 43%
89% 88%81% 77%
71%66%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015
Good timeBad time
A M E R I C A N S G E T T I N G M O R E A N D M O R E P O S I T I V E A B O U T J O B S
Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?!
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, March 1-5, 2015 PAGE 8
Y E T A P L U R A L I T Y B E L I E V E T H E S TAT E O F T H E E C O N O M Y W I L L R E M A I N T H E S A M E I N T H E C O M I N G Y E A R
During the next 12 months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?!
Same
Worse
Better22%
38% 38%
46%42% 41%
33%37%
29%
29% 21%
40%
35%
45%
32%27% 26% 27%
31% 29%
22% 20% 30% 22% 22% 22% 23%
15%29%
30% 32%
23%20%
9%
18% 24% 25% 24%17%
21%
51%
37%30% 29%
33%36%
43%46%
41% 39%45%
35%
41%
34%
49% 48% 48% 48%51%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Oct 2006
Oct 2008
Apr 2009
June 2009
Oct 2009
Mar 2010
June 2010
Nov 2010
Feb 2011
June 2011
Oct 2011
Mar 2012
June 2012
Oct 2012
June 2013
Sept 2013
Mar 2014
June 2014
Dec 2014
Mar 2015
Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
PAGE 9
A M E R I C A N S T H I N K T H E H O U S I N G M A R K E T I S G E T T I N G B E T T E R , W H I L E H E A LT H C A R E C O S T S A R E G E T T I N G W O R S E ; T H E S T R E N G T H O F T H E E C O N O M Y R E M A I N S A B O U T T H E S A M E
I’m going to mention some aspects of the national economic situation. For each, please tell me if you expect things to get better in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months.!
Better Worse About the same Not Sure
Overall strength of the economy 34% 21% 44% 1%
Job growth 38% 22% 38% 2%
The housing market 42% 17% 37% 4%
America’s economic standing in the world 23% 36% 39% 2%
Health care costs 20% 56% 22% 2%
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015
Source: The Economist/YouGov Poll, April 4-6, 2015 PAGE 10
33%24%
42%48%
23%
60%66%
49%44%
63%
President Obama Republicans in Congress
Consumers Businesses Wall Street
All/Most of it Some/None of it
How much responsibility do you think the following people have for the economy improving?!
M O R E C R E D I T I S G I V E N TO C O N S U M E R S A N D B U S I N E S S E S F O R T H E E C O N O M Y I M P R O V I N G T H A N P R E S I D E N T O B A M A
Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015 PAGE 11
A M E R I C A N FA M I LY F I N A N C E S A R E H E AV I LY A F F E C T E D B Y T H E P R I C E O F G A S O L I N E
How much does the price of gasoline affect your family finances – a lot, some, not much, or not at all?!
43% 28% 19% 9%
A lot Some Not much Not at all
Source: Gallup Economic Confidence Scores, May 2013 – April 2015 PAGE 12
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Nat
iona
l Pric
e of
Gal
lon
of G
as
Econ
omic
Con
fiden
ce S
core
Week
Economic Perception and Gas Prices
E C O N O M I C C O N F I D E N C E S P I K E S A S G A S P R I C E S S TA RT TO G O D O W N , T H E N B O T H L E V E L O U T
Price of Gas
Economic Confidence Score
O B A M A , C O N G R E S S , A N D T H E E C O N O M Y !
PAGE 13
PAGE 14
O B A M A’ S J O B A P P R O VA L I N T H E M I D 4 0 ’ S
APPROVE 46.1%
DISAPPROVE 49.5%
Obama’s Overall Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
% %
Gallup 47 47
GWU/Battleground 46 49
YouGov/Economist 46 51
CBS/Times 45 44
NBC/WSJ 48 47
Ipsos/Reuters 44 49
Obama Approval – Six New National Polls
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 12, 2015
60% 60%
47% 47%
34%
Clinton (1999) Eisenhower (1959) Obama (2015) Reagan (1987) G.W. Bush (2007)
PAGE 15
O V E R A L L O B A M A’ S A P P R O VA L H I G H E R T H A N H I S P R E D E C E C E S S O R H A L F WAY T H R O U G H 7 T H Y E A R
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in May of Third Year of 2nd Term
Weekly Approval Rating Average
May 4 – 10, 2015
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Source: Fox News Poll, March 29-31, 2015 PAGE 16
45%42% 40%
37% 36%33%
52% 54% 54%58%
55%58%
The economy Health care Terrorism Immigration Foreign policy Iran
Approve Disapprove
O B A M A O N T H E I S S U E S
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?!
Source: Pew Research Poll, February 18-22, 2015 PAGE 17
M O S T A M E R I C A N S D I S A P P R O V E O F A L L L E A D E R S I N C O N G R E S S , R E P U B L I C A N S E S P E C I A L LY
26%
36%
66%
58%
8%
7%
Republican leaders in Congress
Democratic leaders in Congress
Disapprove DKApprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican/Democratic leaders in Congress are doing?!
P E R C E P T I O N S O F F O R E I G N T R A D E !
PAGE 18
PAGE 19
M A J O R I T Y O F A M E R I C A N S S T I L L S E E O P P O RT U N I T Y I N F O R E I G N T R A D E
What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports?!
Source: Gallup Poll, February 8-11, 2015
44%
53%
54%
56%51%52%
49%
44%45% 43%41%
44% 45%46%
57%54%
58%
48%
38%
35%
36%37%39%41%48%
46%48%
52%47% 45%46%
35%38%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Opportunity for economic growth
Threat to the economy
PAGE 20
M O R E A M E R I C A N S A R E S TA RT I N G TO T H I N K T H AT F R E E T R A D E H A S H E L P E D T H E U N I T E D S TAT E S
23% 23% 25%
47% 38% 31%
23%30% 37%
Nov-10 Nov-14 Apr-15
Has helped the U.S.
Has hurt the U.S.
Hasn't made much of a difference
In general, do you think that free trade between the United States and foreign countries has helped the United States, has hurt the United States, or has not made much of a difference either way?!
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, April 26-30, 2015 Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17 – June 5, 2014 PAGE 21
H O W E V E R , A M E R I C A N S U N S U R E O F T R A D E B E N E F I T S
Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in (survey country), job losses, or does it not make a difference? Does trade with other countries lead to an increase in the wages of (survey nationality) workers, a decrease in wages,
or does it not make a difference? !In your opinion, when foreign companies buy (survey nationality) companies, does this have a very good, somewhat
good, somewhat bad, or a very bad impact on our country?!
20%
17%
28%
44%
28%
31%
52%
45%
44%
66%
55%
57%
Trade creates jobs
Trade raises wages
Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good
U.S.
Advanced Countries
Emerging Countries
Developing Countries
Note: Categories determined by a combination of each country’s World Bank Income Group, GDP Per Capita (PPP), GPP (US$ Billions) and Average GDP Growth (2004-2013)
PAGE 22
A M E R I C A N , F R E N C H , I TA L I A N A N D J A PA N E S E V I E W S O N T R A D E N O T I N L I N E W I T H M O S T T P P A N D T T I P C O U N T R I E S
Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in (survey country), job losses, or does it not make a difference? !
55%
50%
24%
20%
15%
13%
TPP Countries
TTIP Countries
France
U.S.
Japan
Italy
% job creation
Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17 – June 5, 2014
Source: Pew Research Poll, February 26 – March 1, 2015 PAGE 23
M O S T A M E R I C A N S T H I N K T H E T T I P A N D T P P T R A D E A G R E E M E N T S A R E A G O O D T H I N G
As you may know, the U.S. and the EU are negotiating a free trade agreement called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or
a bad thing? !
As you may know, the United States is negotiating a free trade agreement with eleven countries in Asia and Latin America called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for
our country or a bad thing?!
50%
21%
15%
2% 11% Good thing
Bad thing
Haven't heard enough
Neither good nor bad
DK/Refused
55%25%
10%
1%8%
Source: Pew Research Poll, February 27 – March 2, 2014
TTIP TPP
V I E W S O N I N C O M E I N E Q U A L I T Y A N D R A I S I N G T H E M I N I M U M W A G E !
PAGE 24
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015 PAGE 25
M O S T A M E R I C A N S T H I N K T H E G A P B E T W E E N T H E R I C H A N D E V E RY O N E E L S E I S G E T T I N G B I G G E R
Do you have a sense that the gap between the rich and everyone else is getting bigger, staying about the same, or getting smaller compared to 10 years ago?!
69% 17% 10% 4%
Getting bigger Staying the same Getting smaller
Not sure
Total
76%
12%
3% 9%
Democrats
72%
16%
2% 10%
Independents
Getting bigger Staying the sameNot sure Getting smaller
59%25%
5% 11%
Republicans
PAGE 26
M A J O R I T Y O F A M E R I C A N S F E E L T H AT O N LY T H O S E AT T H E TO P H AV E T H E O P P O RT U N I T Y TO G E T A H E A D
Which comes closer to your view? In today’s economy, everyone has a fair chance to get ahead in the long run OR In today’s economy, it’s mainly just a few people at
the top who have a chance to get ahead.!
Who do you think benefits most from the policies of the federal government: the rich, the middle class, the poor,
or do all benefit equally?!
36%
4%
60%
Anyone can get ahead
Don't know/ No answer
Only those at the top can get ahead
61%
8%
19%
8% 4%
Rich Middle class
Poor All equally Don't know
Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015
PAGE 27
A M E R I C A N S T H I N K L I F E F O R M I D D L E C L A S S A M E R I C A N S H A S G O T T E N W O R S E , M O S T C O N C E R N E D T H E Y C A N ’ T G E T A H E A D
Over the past 10 years, do you think life for middle class Americans has gotten better or worse?!
Better23%
Same4%
Don't know2%
Worse71%
Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015
Which concerns you more… ?!
28%
68%
The income gap between the wealthiest Americans
and the rest of the country
Middle and working class Americans not being able to get ahead financially
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, April 26-30, 2015
PAGE 28
A N D M O S T F E E L T H AT T H E M O N E Y A N D W E A LT H I N T H I S C O U N T RY S H O U L D B E M O R E E V E N LY D I S T R I B U T E D
Do you feel that the distribution of money and wealth in this country today is fair, or do you feel that the money and wealth in this country should be more evenly distributed among a larger percentage of the people?!
Source: Gallup Poll, April 9-12, 2015
31% 28%33% 31%
38%31% 29%
27%
37%35% 35% 33% 31%
60%66%
62% 63%56%
63% 66%68%
58%
59% 57% 59%63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-84 Jan-87 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14
Distribution is fair
Should be more evenly distributed
PAGE 29
A M E R I C A N S S P L I T O N W H E T H E R T H E G O V E R N M E N T S H O U L D S T E P I N TO S H R I N K T H E G A P O R S T E P A S I D E A N D L E T T H E M A R K E T O P E R AT E F R E E LY; S T R O N G PA RT I S A N D I F F E R E N C E S
In thinking about the gap between the rich and everyone else, do you think it would be…!
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015
46%
7%
47%
Total
70%
8%
22%
Democrats
43%
5%
52%
Independents
19%
6%
75%
Republicans
Be#er for the government to stand aside and let the market operate freely even if the gap gets wider
Be#er for the government to implement policies designed to shrink that gap
Not sure
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2015, PAGE 30
A M E R I C A N S F E E L T H AT D E M O C R AT S A N D T H E O B A M A A D M I N I S T R AT I O N B E T T E R A D D R E S S T H E I N C O M E G A P T H A N R E P U B L I C A N S
Who do you think has better ideas about how to address the income gap…?!
In general, do you think…?!
44%
33%
Democrats Republicans
63%
9%
3%
20%
23%
18%
25%
26%
Favor the rich
Favor the middle class
Favor the poor
Treat all equally
Republicans in CongressObama Administration
Source: CBS News Poll, January 2014Note: “Both,” “Neither,” “Not a problem” results are not shown.
Source: FOX News Poll, April 19-21, 2015 PAGE 31
A M E R I C A N S T H I N K T H E M I N I M U M WA G E S H O U L D B E R A I S E D , B U T A L S O F I N D I T L I K E LY B U S I N E S S E S W I L L C U T J O B S I F I T I S
Which of the following comes closest to your view on how the federal government should handle the
minimum wage?!
How likely do you think it is that raising the minimum wage will cause businesses to cut jobs or
hire fewer workers?!
54%
23% 20%
The government should raise the minimum wage
because it would help lots of people pay their bills
The government should NOT raise the minimum wage because it would cause businesses to cut
jobs
There shouldn't be a minimum wage because government shouldn't tell businesses what to pay
their employees
13% 18% 32% 35%
Not at all Not very Somewhat Very
67% Likely
G P G D i g i t a l S n a p s h o t !
E X P L O R I N G T H E D I G I TA L C O N V E R S AT I O N A R O U N D T H E M I N I M U M WA G E I N T H E U S!
In order to get a better understanding of some of the prominent online conversations around the economy, GPG conducted an analysis of the online conversation from February 1 to April 30, 2015, that examined mentions of the minimum wage in the US.!
• GPG used online media analysis tools to capture media results from the full spectrum of digital and social media sources including:!
• Online News!• Forums!• Blogs!• Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google+, Tumblr, etc.)!
• GPG then conducted both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data to derive the following insights.!
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !PAGE 33
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1-Fe
b-15
3-Fe
b-15
5-Fe
b-15
7-Fe
b-15
9-Fe
b-15
11-F
eb-1
5
13-F
eb-1
5
15-F
eb-1
5
17-F
eb-1
5
19-F
eb-1
5
21-F
eb-1
5
23-F
eb-1
5
25-F
eb-1
5
27-F
eb-1
5
1-M
ar-1
5
3-M
ar-1
5
5-M
ar-1
5
7-M
ar-1
5
9-M
ar-1
5
11-M
ar-1
5
13-M
ar-1
5
15-M
ar-1
5
17-M
ar-1
5
19-M
ar-1
5
21-M
ar-1
5
23-M
ar-1
5
25-M
ar-1
5
27-M
ar-1
5
29-M
ar-1
5
31-M
ar-1
5
2-Ap
r-15
4-Ap
r-15
6-Ap
r-15
8-Ap
r-15
10-A
pr-1
5
12-A
pr-1
5
14-A
pr-1
5
16-A
pr-1
5
18-A
pr-1
5
20-A
pr-1
5
22-A
pr-1
5
24-A
pr-1
5
26-A
pr-1
5
28-A
pr-1
5
30-A
pr-1
5
PAGE 34
K E Y S P I K E S I N C O V E R A G E
GPG Original Digital Research
Num
ber o
f Men
tions
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
Mike Rowe, former host of “Dirty Jobs,” publishes an “Off the Wall” Facebook post questioning movements pushing for minimum wage increases, stating that jobs are about opportunities, not wages. Many repost Rowe’s comments on social media. The January jobs report is also released, showing a 2.2% increase in wages. !
Organizations in support of minimum wage increases launch a Twitter campaign. Nacion de Inmigrants (@ImmigranNacion) tweets at Republican Members of Congress, stating “you can’t govern,” paired with the hashtag, “MinimumWage.” Americans America (@americans4amer) tweeted, “raise the minimum wage your greed is hurting our economy!” Both went viral on Twitter with RTs.!
The Fight For 15 campaign organizes protests outside McDonalds’ in NYC and in several U.S. cities calling for minimum wage increases and a union for McDonald’s low-wage employees. Protests gain coverage in mainstream news and on Twitter when Senator Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) tweets in support of minimum wage increases, using the hashtag “FightFor15.” News also breaks that CEO of Gravity Payments plans to cut his own salary so that all company employees receive a minimum salary of $70K.!
PAGE 35
M I N I M U M WA G E C O N V E R S AT I O N S W E R E P R I M A R I LY O N T W I T T E R – F O L L O W E D B Y T R A D I T I O N A L N E W S A N D FA C E B O O K
38%
22% 20%
12%7%
Twitter News Facebook Blog Forums
EXAMPLE NEWS ARTICLES DRIVING CONVERSATION OVER THIS TIME PERIOD:
Obama And Democrats Raise Their Minimum Wage Proposal To $12 (Huffington Post, April 30, 2015)
Wal-Mart Will Give Half-Million Employees Pay Raises (Yahoo! Finance, February 19, 2015)
CEO Taking $70K Salary Says It's a "Sacrifice” (CBS News, April 24, 2015)
$15 Minimum Wage Protests Could Spell Major Problems For Retailers (TheStreet, April 15, 2015)
Mayor Bill De Blasio To Push For Major Minimum Wage Hike in New York City (Huffington Post, February 3, 2015)
GPG Original Digital Research
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
T H E M E S W I T H I N T H E M I N I M U M WA G E C O N V E R S AT I O N
GPG also used these online media analysis tools to capture media results across four sub-topics within the larger minimum wage conversation: !
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
Large retailers agree to increase wages!
TTIP / TPP and its effect on wages!
Racial and economic justice issues!
Minimum wage debates in the 2016 elections !
This theme most commonly appeared in mid-February when Wal-Mart announced that it would raise it’s wages to $10 per hour. Nearly half of these conversations happened on Facebook, and did not appear as strongly on Twitter or in news and blogs.!
Coverage of the debate over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) commonly mentioned its effect on wages in the US. Elizabeth Warren’s opposition garnered a considerable amount of coverage in news and blogs.!
Increasing the minimum wage has been featured prominently in the Democratic presidential contenders’ platforms, and was mentioned in many news articles and Facebook posts as these candidates announced their campaigns over this period.!
Minimum wage conversations during this period often overlapped with discussions of racial and economic justice, mostly covered by online news and blogs. Organizations advocating for increasing minimum wage commonly connected the low wages to economic injustices felt by Black communities.!
PAGE 36
1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor!Washington, DC 20004!
121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor !New York, NY 10010!
202.337.0808 | GPG.COM!
GPG ResearchThe Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.! !Our in-house research team is a data- and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. ! !On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys.!For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt ([email protected])
