Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis

July 25, 2016

H E A D I N G I N T O T H E D E M O C R A T I C C O N V E N T I O N

PAGE 3

M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS D E S C RIB E T H E PA R TY A S U N I T E D

United58%

Divided40%

Don’t know/No answer

2%

Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016

Would you describe the Democratic Party

today as united or divided?

L A R G E M A J O RI TY O F D E M O CR ATS S AY PA R TY W I L L U N I T E B E H I ND C L I NTO N

24% 72%

Have disagreements that keep many from supporting her Unite solidly behind her

Among Democratic primary preference

% of Democratic/Dem-leaning registered voters who say if Clinton is the party’s nominee, the party will…

58%

82%

Sanders

Clinton

Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016

Just more than half of Sanders supporters think the party will

solidly unite behind Clinton

PAGE 4

A M O N G D E M O CRATS , W E A KE R S U P P ORT F O R C L I NTO N T H A N F O R O T H E R N O M I NEE S S I N C E G O R E

40%

59% 58%

45%

2000 2004 2008 2016

% who say they support their candidate choice ‘strongly’

Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26 PAGE 5

A LT H OUG H A M E RI CANS N O T S AT ISF IED W I T H C H O I CES, M O S T D E M O CRAT S S AT IS FIE D W I T H C L I N TON

PAGE 6

Clinton 54%

Someone else 45%

No opinion1%

Are you satisfied that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, or would you have preferred that the Democratic Party nominated someone else?

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016

Satisfied40%

Dissatisfied58%

No opinion2%

How do you feel about a choice between (Clinton) and (Trump) as the major-party candidates for president?

Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14

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M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S A P P RO VE O F O B A M A’S J O B P E R F OR MANCE , B U T M A N Y T H I N K U S A I S O N W R O NG T R A CK

73%

18%

Off on the wrong track

Headed in the right direction

All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

Approve56%

Disapprove42%

No opinion2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president?

Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14 Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016

N E A R LY H A L F O F A M E R I CANS C R E DIT O B A M A F O R A N I M P R OVE D E C O N OMY

Which of these best describes your view of the economy during Barack Obama's presidency?

36%

15%

49%

The economy has not really improved

The economy has improved, but I do not give Obama much credit for it

The economy has improved, and I give Obama some credit for it

PAGE 8Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14

A M E R IC ANS WA N T T H E N E X T P R E S IDE NT T O H AV E P O L I TI CAL E X P E RI ENC E, R AT HE R T H A N B E A N O U T S IDE R

All else equal, would you like the next president to be someone who has experience in how the political system works, or someone from outside the existing political establishment?

4%

41%

55%

No opinion

Outside establishment

Experience in political system

PAGE 9Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14

L O O K I N G A T T H E C A N D I D A T E S

M O R E T H A N H A L F O F A M E R I CANS H AV E A N U N FAVO RABL E V I E W O F T R U M P A N D C L I NTO N

54% 52% 54% 55% 57%60% 60% 57% 54% 59% 55% 55% 54%

66%

58%64%

60% 57%64% 62% 63% 64%

60% 59% 59% 57%

Clinton Trump

Source: Huffington Post Pollster. Polls fielded from 6/9-7/20PAGE 11

S A M E S H A R E O F V O T E R S S AY C L I NTO N I S A S H O N E S T A S T R U M P, M O R E S AY S H E H A S T E M PER AMEN T A N D J U D GE MENT T O S E R V E

39% 44% 48% 49% 54% 59%

39%46%

35% 36% 35%28%

Is more honest and trustworthy

Would do more to bring change to

Washington

Better understands the problems of people like you

Better represents your own personal values

Has better judgment Has a better personality and

temperament to serve effectively as

president

Clinton Trump

Who do you think ___, Clinton or Trump?

PAGE 12Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14

A LT H OUG H F E W ER V O T E RS S AY C L I N TON I S S I N C ER E, M O R E T H A N S I X - IN -TE N S AY S H E H A S T H E R I G H T E X P ERI ENC E

41% 38% 41% 44%

64%

49%39% 42%

52%

32%

Is sincere in what she says Someone you would be proud to have as president

Will unite the country and not divide it

Is running for president for the good of the country, not

for personal gain

Has the right experience to be president

Clinton Trump

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies or doesn't apply to Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

Source: CNN/ORC July 13-16, 2016 & July 22-24, 2016 PAGE 13

M O R E V O T ER S S AY C L I NTO N Q U A LI FI ED T O S E R V E A S P R E S I DENT

Qualified37%

Qualified59%

Not Qualified60%

Not Qualified39%

Donald Trump Hillary ClintonPAGE 14

Regardless of whether or not you’d vote for [him/her], do you think [Trump or Clinton] is or is not qualified to serve as president?

Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14

M A J O RI TIE S O F V O T E R S T H I NK T R UM P I S R A C I A LLY B I A S ED, AND C L I N TON I S T O O W I L L I NG T O B E N D R U L ES

Is biased56%

Is not biased39%

No opinion5%

Is not too willing 21%

Is too willing72%

No opinion7%

Do you think Hillary Clinton is or is not too willing to bend the rules?

Do you think Donald Trump is or is not biased against women and minorities?

PAGE 15Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14

M O R E T H A N H A L F S AY E M A I L S C A NDA L I S I M P O RTAN T, A N D H A L F S AY I T I S E V I D EN CE O F P O O R J U D G MEN T

Is important

55%

Is not important

35%

Don't know enough

10%

Has the right

judgment 33%

Does NOT have the right

judgment 50%

Don’t know enough

15%

Not sure2%

Based on what you have heard or learned about the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as Secretary of State, do you believe she has the right judgment to make a good president or not?

Now, thinking about what you have seen, read, or heard about Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server during her time as Secretary of State, would you say it IS or it is NOT an important factor in your deciding whether to vote for her as president?

PAGE 16Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016

L O O K I N G A H E A D T O T H E G E N E R A L E L E C T I O N

C L I N TON ’S L E A D S H R I NKS N ATI ONA LLY P O S T R N C C O N V ENT ION ; F E W V O T E RS M AY C H A N GE V O T E

Clinton voters

Trumpvoters

Yes, mind made up 94% 90%No, might change before election

5% 9%

(Among registered voters)

Source: Huffington Post Pollster Average Updated 7/25/16 Source: CBS News Poll 7/22-7/24

Is your mind made up?

PAGE 18

Clinton 42.4%

Trump 41.7%

P O S T R E P UB LIC AN C O N V ENTI ON B O U N CE F O R T R U MP

PAGE 19Source: CNN/ORC Poll, July 22-24, 2016

42%37%

13%

5%

Clinton Trump Johnson Stein

Pre-­‐Convention   (July  13-­‐16)

39%44%

9%

3%

Clinton Trump Johnson Stein

Post-­‐Convention  (July  22-­‐24)

-3+7

S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NH

AZ

FL

VAOH

PAIA

WI

CONV

(7/5-7/12)Clinton: 44.6%Trump: 36.6%

(6/22-7/15)Clinton: 42.3%Trump: 39.3%

(6/21-7/10)Clinton: 44.3%Trump: 38.7%

(6/22-7/11)Clinton: 45.5%Trump: 42.3%

Clinton: 43.8%Trump: 39.0%

(6/13-7/12)

Clinton: 44.0%Trump: 43.4%

(6/25-7/11)

(6/22-7/20)Clinton: 43.5%Trump: 42.0%

Trump: 44.0%Clinton: 43.5%

(5/24-7/10)

Clinton: 43.5%Trump: 43.0%

(6/20-6/23)

NC Clinton: 43.3%Trump: 42.0%

(6/20-7/11)

Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 7/25/16

PAGE 20

NOTE: No new state polls released post RNC convention yet

S L I G H TLY M O R E A M E R ICA NS W O U L D P R E FE R A D E M O CR ATIC P R E S I DENT O V E R A R E P U BL ICA N

41%

46%

Republican

Democrat

Now, putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of this year’s presidential election––that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?

PAGE 21Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016

F I R S T C Y C L E T H AT M O R E D E M OC RATS A R E V O T I N G A G A I NST O T H E R C A N D IDAT E R AT HER T H A N F O R T H E IR O W N

PAGE 22

64%

59%

68%

72%

48%

30%

37%

25%

22%

50%

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

60%

73%

59%

38%

41%

33%

23%

35%

58%

55%

Among Republican candidate supporters Among Democratic candidate supporters

Would you say your choice is more a vote FOR ____ or AGAINST _____?

For own candidateFor own candidateAgainst other candidate Against other candidate

Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26

W H A T ’ S N E X T

PAGE 24

K E Y U P C O MI NG D AT ES I N 2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON C Y C L E

Event DateDemocratic National Convention July 25-28

First Presidential Debate September 26Vice Presidential Debate October 4

Second Presidential Debate October 9Third Presidential Debate October 16

Election Day November 8

Countdown to Election Day (from July 28): 102 days

PAGE 25

F E W E ST D E M O CRATS O R R E P U BL ICA NS A R E S AT I SF IED W I T H T H E AVA I LA BLE C H O ICE S S I N C E 1 9 9 2

33%

53% 64% 61%

72%64%

43%40%44%

69% 72%

47% 52%40%

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Democrat/ Lean Dem

Republican/ Lean Rep

DEM CAND

GOP CAND

IND CAND

CLINTON

BUSH

PEROT

CLINTON

DOLE

PEROT

GORE

BUSH

KERRY

BUSH

OBAMA

MCCAIN

OBAMA

ROMNEY

CLINTON

TRUMP

% of registered voters who are very/fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates

Source: Pew Research Center

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