Public opinion landscape - The Economy

The Public Opinion Landscape – The Economy September 23, 2013

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future

2. Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy

3. Views on the Debt Ceiling

4. The Financial Crisis: Five Years Later

Slide

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10

14

18

2

Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future

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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 18, 2013

Widening Gap

The trend shows that the gap

between those who are optimistic and pessimistic about the future of our

country is beginning to widen.

AS WE EXIT THE SUMMER MONTHS, OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO FADE

WRONG TRACK 61.1%

RIGHT DIRECTION 26.3%

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Source: Gallup Poll

FIVE YEARS LATER: CONFIDENCE IN ECONOMY IS UP, BUT JOB FEARS REMAIN INTACT

Before 9/15/2008

One month later

One year later

Today, September

2013

Gallup Economic Confidence Index -39 -65 -23 -16

% Name the economy as MIP 41 47 29 21

% “good time” to find a quality job 20 14 10 27

% Name unemployment as MIP 7 3 15 17

% Worried about being laid off^ 15 n/a 31 29

% Worried that benefits will be cut^ 27 n/a 46 43

% Worried that pay will be reduced^ 16 n/a 32 31

Average daily consumer spending $113 $85 $60 $86

MIP = “Most Important Problem” ^ Based on U.S. adults employed full or part time

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Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013

ONE IN FIVE AMERICANS DON’T SEE ANY ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT IN LAST 5 YEARS

It’s been five years since the beginning of the financial crisis and the economic downturn that followed. Compared with the worst of that crisis, from your perspective has the economy improved a great deal, improved somewhat, improved just a little, or not improved at all?

10%

35% 32%

22%

A great deal Somewhat Just a little Not at all

1% volunteered

that economy

has gotten worse

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During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

17% 23%

19% 19% 20% 25%

18% 18%

9%

28%

18% 21%

24%

44%

35%

42% 46%

41% 45%

38% 32% 34%

33%

49% 47% 48%

37%

40%

38% 33% 35%

27% 36%

42% 45%

38% 32% 31%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50% Will stay the same

Will get worse

Will get better

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, September 5-8, 2013

AMERICANS VIEW ECONOMY AS STAYING THE SAME OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT YEAR

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POLITICAL PREDISPOSITIONS INFLUENCE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS, AS DOES INCOME

67%

43%

22%

58% 48%

39%

% seeing improvement in the economy

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ECONOMIC CONCERNS LOWEST OF OBAMA PRESIDENCY; BUT STILL REMAIN ON TOP

Percentage of Americans Mentioning Economic Issues as Most Important Problem

Most Important Problem – September 2013

Economy in general (21%) Healthcare (10%)

Unemployment / jobs (17%) Situation in Syria (8%)

Dissatisfaction with government (16%) Federal budget deficit / Federal debt (5%)

Source: Gallup Poll, September 5-8, 2013

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JOB SITUATION IS THE TOP ECONOMIC WORRY

Which of the following national economic issues worries you most?

The job situation (40%) The federal budget deficit (24%)

Rising prices (22%) The condition of the financial and housing

markets (10%) Other / None / Don’t know (4%)

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013

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Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy

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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling…?

Issue NET APPROVE

NET DISAPPROVE

The economy 43% 56% Health care policy 42% 55%

Foreign affairs 40% 57% The federal budget deficit 36% 61%

The situation in Syria 31% 63%

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 6-8, 2013

OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB APPROVAL RATING FADES; MAJORITIES DISAPPROVE HANDLING OF VARIOUS ISSUES

DISAPPROVE 51.0%

APPROVE 43.2%

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 20, 2013

Overall Job Approval

60% 59% 58%

45% 45%

34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Reagan(1985)

Eisenhower(1957)

Clinton(1997)

G.W. Bush(2005)

Obama(2013)

Nixon(1973)

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OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL COMPARABLE TO HIS PREDECESSOR

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in September of First Year of 2nd Term

Weekly Approval Rating Average

September 9 - 15

HALF OF AMERICANS THINK OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES INFLATE FEDERAL DEBT, FAIL TO IMPROVE ECONOMY

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Run up a record federal deficit while failing to

significantly improve the

economy

50%

Help to avoid an even worse

economic crisis, and are fueling

economic recovery

37%

And, in your opinion did President Obama’s economic policies…

Source: Allstate/National Journal Heartland Poll XVIII, September 3-7, 2013

DK/REF 14%

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Views on the Debt Ceiling

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AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ON THE DEBT LIMIT, EVEN WITH FEARS OF DAMAGE


What do you think is better – for Congress to raise the debt limit so the government can keep paying its bills and obligations or for Congress not to raise the debt limit and let the government default on paying its bills and obligations?

46% 43%

Raise the debtlimit

Not raise the debtlimit

If the government cannot borrow money to fund its operations and pay its debts, do you think that would or would not cause serious harm to the U.S. economy?

73%

22%

Would Would not

Note: “No opinion” results not shown.

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AMERICANS MOSTLY OPPOSED TO RAISING THE DEBT CEILING WITH CONDITIONS

Source: Reason-Rupe Poll, September 4-8, 2012

Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if equal amounts of budget cuts are made, or not?

45% 46%

9%

Favor Oppose DK/REF

Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if funding for Obamacare is cut off, or not?

Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if not raising the debt ceiling means the U.S. defaults on its debt, or not?

35%

56%

10%

Favor Oppose DK/REF

35%

55%

10%

Favor Oppose DK/REF

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OBAMA HAS UPPER HAND ON PERCEIVED WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE


Do you think [Obama / the Republican leaders in Congress] is/are doing too much, too little, or about the right amount compared with [the Republican leaders in Congress / Obama] on a budget plan?

Note: “No opinion” results not shown.

10% 10%

49%

64%

36%

22%

Barack Obama Republican leaders in Congress

Doing too much Doing too little About the right amount

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Financial Crisis: Five Years Later

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FIVE YEARS AFTER CRASH, DOUBTS ABOUT U.S. ECONOMIC SYSTEM


Thinking about the U.S. economic system in general, compared with before the 2008 financial crisis, do you think the U.S. economic system is more secure today than it was before the 2008 economic crisis or no more secure today than it was before the 2008 economic crisis?

68%

45%

80%

63%

29%

51%

16%

33%

No more secure More secure

Total

Republican

Democrat

Independent

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MANY SEE AN UNEVEN ECONOMIC RECOVERY


Thinking about the recession that began in 2008. Please tell me whether you think each of the following has fully recovered from the recession, partially recovered, or hardly recovered at all?

Fully recovered

Partially recovered

Hardly recovered DK

Household incomes 2% 42% 54% 2%

Job situation 2% 45% 52% 1%

Real estate values 4% 59% 33% 4%

Stock market 21% 53% 18% 9%

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GOV’T POLICIES SEEN AS DOING LITTLE FOR MIDDLE CLASS, POOR AND SMALL BUSINESSES


Thinking about the federal government’s economic policies following the recession that began in 2008. Do you think these policies have helped [INSERT] a great deal, a fair amount, not too much, or not at all?

40%

41%

38%

6%

6%

8%

28%

26%

21%

23%

21%

18%

25%

27%

33%

67%

71%

72%

Large banks & financialinstitutions

Large corporations

Wealthy people

Small businesses

Middle class people

Poor people

A great deal A fair amount Not much / Not at all

Note: “DK/REF” results not shown.

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DEMOCRATS SEE TOO LITTLE FINANCIAL REGULATION, REPUBLICANS SEE TOO MUCH


In regulating financial institutions and markets, which comes closer to your view?

Total Rep Dem Ind The government has gone too far regulating financial institutions and markets, making it harder for the economy to grow

43% 64% 26% 41%

The government has not gone far enough in regulating financial institutions and markets, leaving the country at risk for another financial crisis

49% 32% 62% 51%

Don’t know / Refused 8% 4% 11% 8%

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VERY FEW AMERICANS ARE CONFIDENT THAT COUNTRY CAN AVOID ANOTHER CRISIS

6%

32% 35%

26%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Very confident Somewhatconfident

Not so confident Not at all confident

How confident are you, if at all, that the country will be able to avoid another financial crisis in the future – very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident, or not confident at all ?

62% Not confident

37% Confident

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TWO-THIRDS SAY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS FAILED TO TAKE ADEQUATE STEPS TO PREVENT ANOTHER FINANCIAL CRISIS


Do you think the federal government has or has not taken adequate measures to prevent another financial crisis in the future?

Has not 66%

Has 28%

No opinion 7%

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MORE THAN SIX IN TEN SAY THE COUNTRY’S FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE FAILED TO PUT SUFFICIENT SAFEGUARDS IN PLACE


Do you think the country’s banks and other financial institutions have or have not taken adequate measures to prevent another financial crisis in the future?

Have not 62%

Have 27%

No opinion 11%

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AMERICANS STILL ANGRY WITH BANKERS FOR FINANCIAL CRISIS

The government was right to bail out banks and other financial institutions during the financial crisis.

Source: Ipsos-Reuters Poll, September 6-10, 2013

23%

44%

22%

Neither agree or disagree

Disagree

Agree

The government has sufficiently prosecuted bankers for their role in the financial crisis.

20%

53%

15%


Disagree

Agree

Note: “Don’t know” results not shown.

YET, IMAGE OF BANKING INDUSTRY MAKING A SLOW COMBACK

Source: Gallup Poll, August 7-11, 2013

47% 46% 52%

46% 46%

56% 50%

36%

28% 26% 30%

25% 33%

20% 24%

20% 17% 22%

17% 18%

37%

51% 54% 47%

53%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Very/somewhat positive Very/somewhat negative

For each of the following business sectors in the United States, please say whether your overall view of it is very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or very negative.

Note: “Neutral” and “No opinion” results not shown.

AMERICANS’ CONFIDENCE IN BANKS UP FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS

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Source: Gallup Poll, June 1-4, 2013

The percentage of Americans saying they

have a great deal or quite a lot (26%) of

confidence in banks is now about the same as

those expressing little or no confidence (28%).

June 1-4 %

Great deal 10

Quite a lot 16

Some 45

Very little 26

None (vol.) 2

No opinion 1

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BUT AMERICANS SPLIT ON WHETHER WALL STREET HELPS THE ECONOMY GROW & CREATE JOBS

Source: Ipsos-Reuters Poll, September 6-10, 2013

Wall Street banks and traders help the U.S. economy grow and create jobs.

Agree 26%

Disagree 30%


31%

Don’t know 13%

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Jason Boxt ([email protected])

News & Politics

Public opinion landscape - The Economy