AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT April 12, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. The UN-brokered ceasefire in Yemen is holding in advance of the April 18 talks in Kuwait, despite ongoing fighting in key areas.

2. Al Shabaab launched two vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in Mogadishu this week, displaying an inflection in its bomb-producing capabilities.

3. Key Libyan factions backed the UN-recognized Libyan unity government, which will probably become a critical counter-terrorism partner in the counter-ISIS fight.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda is actively distancing itself from attacks against selected targets in Yemen and Tunisia, a continuation of al Qaeda’s strict vision of who is and is not a legitimate target. The purpose is to ensure that al Qaeda’s actions are not alienating toward the local population. Al Qaeda groups are also continuing to issue warnings to Muslim civilians to avoid potential attack sites, such as embassies, tourist areas, and foreign companies. Al Qaeda groups have disciplined members within their ranks who have deviated from approved targets.

Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns, building strength and local resilience.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesAl Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) declared war on atheists in Bangladesh, incorporating its ongoing campaign of assassinations of secular bloggers into a broader effort. Ansar al Islam, the AQIS affiliate in Bangladesh, killed law student Nazimuddin Samad in Dhaka. Samad was an outspoken atheist and is the latest in a number of killings of atheist bloggers perpetrated by ISIS and Ansar al Islam.

Outlook: Pakistani security forces will continue the crackdown on radical militant Islamist groups in Punjab.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN-brokered ceasefire that began on April 10 is holding despite minor reports of ongoing fighting. President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government, the al Houthis, and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s General People’s Congress party have all expressed formal support for the ceasefire agreement, though each has reserved a right to take defensive action should violations occur. Reports of ongoing high-level meetings within each faction indicate preparations for the April 18 UN-led talks.

Outlook: Al Houthi-Saleh and Hadi government delegates will participate in the scheduled UN-led talks in Kuwait.

SecurityAl Houthi and Saudi officials deescalated violence along the border, resuming an unofficial ceasefire established in early March, and a nation-wide ceasefire depressed the overall level of violence. Clashes continued in Taiz, Sana’a, Ma’rib, Shabwah, and al Jawf through the beginning of the ceasefire as ground forces continued efforts to consolidate gains. Al Houthi-Saleh forces successfully contested the main road into southwest Taiz city, which coalition-backed forces had seized in mid-March.

Outlook: Fighting will likely occur in Taiz and Ma’rib. Attacks along the Saudi-Yemeni border are unlikely.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP used a security narrative to help justify its presence and expansion in Abyan governorate. The group denied involvement in an attack on pro-Hadi forces in Ahwar, Abyan, suggesting ISIS or other militant groups were active in the area and that it was actively seeking to remove them. AQAP also asserted control over al Mahfad, Abyan governorate after clashes with tribal militants at a tribal checkpoint. AQAP’s Ansar al Sharia may be further consolidating control in al Mukalla, where it seized the headquarters of a local writers’ union.

Outlook: AQAP will use local intermediaries to negotiate its freedom of movement in Abyan governorate.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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1) 10 APR: Al Houthi-Saleh forces seized control of al Dhabab road in Taiz city.2) 09 APR: Gunmen executed 15 pro-Hadi soldiers in Ahwar, Abyan.3) 11 APR: AQAP asserted control in al Mahfad, Abyan, following clashes with local tribesmen.4) 06 APR: AQAP seized a writers’ union in al Mukalla, Hadramawt.5) 08 APR: Likely AQAP militants shelled Aden from southern Lahij.

UN-sponsored ceasefire began.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe Somali Federal Government (SFG) is mediating a new round of state formation talks between the Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions following disagreements over the planned state’s electoral system. Concerns over power sharing with local powerbrokers have hindered the progress of the talks.

Outlook: It is unlikely that the current round of talks will generate consensus across powerbrokers in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions on the terms of the new Federal Member State.

SecurityAfrican Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali National Army (SNA) forces have begun to pressure al Shabaab’s historical stronghold in Dinsor district in Bay region. The anti-al Shabaab forces have sustained a high operational tempo in the area and have cleared and secured several small villages nearby. U.S. official statements on U.S. drone strikes in Somalia indicate a shift in policy whereby the U.S. is now conducting strikes against al Shabaab forces to protect ground partners.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely fight to hold settlements in Dinsor district as SNA and AMISOM forces advance.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab may be improving its bomb-making capabilities in the vicinity of Mogadishu. It detonated two vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in Mogadishu within three days. The last time it launched two VBIEDs in Mogadishu within a similar time period was June. Separately, a new Salafi-jihadi group, “Jabha East Africa,” announced its existence and pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), probably an ISIS response to al Shabaab’s al Muhajiroun in East Africa. The ISIS-linked group is unlikely to challenge al Shabaab’s dominant position in the region.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will target officials to further undermine security in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab will also crack down on militants who try to defect to ISIS.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

1) 09, 11 APR: Al Shabaab detonated two VBIEDs in Mogadishu.2) 07 APR: A reported U.S. airstrike and unidentified SOF targeted al Shabaab near Jilib, Middle Shabelle.3) 06, 08 APR: Al Shabaab ambushed two Ethiopian AMISOM convoys.4) 10 APR: Approximately 100 al Shabaab fighters raided a police station in Diff town, Wajir County, Kenya.

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ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) continues to consolidate authority in Tripoli following the dissolution of the oppositional General National Congress (GNC). Libya’s Central Bank and the National Oil Company endorsed the GNA, giving it the opportunity to build legitimacy by addressing Libya’s economic crisis. The GNA still needs the endorsement of the House of Representatives (HoR), which likely hinges on the fate of General Khalifa Haftar, the HoR’s primary military backer.

Outlook: The success or failure of the GNA’s first economic policies will determine whether opposition powerbrokers fall in line.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army (LNA), Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD), and ISIS Wilayat Barqa are vying for control of Derna, where the MSCD remains the dominant force on the ground. LNA forces seized the main supply line leading into the city. Wilayat Barqa may be stepping up its offensive operations against the MSCD in an effort to reclaim territory in the city, which it held from late 2014 until mid-2015. Separately, the LNA continued clearing operations in Benghazi.

Outlook: The LNA will expand its operations in Derna with a focus on ISIS Wilayat Barqa before taking on the MSCD.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS Wilayat Tarablus continues to mobilize its forces south of Sirte, likely to secure lines of communication between Sirte and southwestern Libya, where it is developing an affiliate. ISIS militants continued to clash with security forces guarding oil infrastructure in central Libya, and recent reports of troop mobilizations in ISIS-held terrain suggests that the group may be shaping for a sustained campaign in the oil crescent. ISIS may also launch spoiler attacks on LNA targets following reports that the LNA and LNA-affiliated forces are preparing to attack ISIS’s stronghold in Sirte.

Outlook: ISIS will increase its presence in key southwestern cities, including Sebha. It will conduct attacks on LNA targets, likely in Benghazi, should the LNA mobilize against Sirte.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 08 APR: ISIS Wilayat Tarablus militants recaptured the Khashum Khail checkpoint from local security forces.2) 05-12 APR: LNA forces continued clearing operations in Benghazi.3) 07 APR: ISIS Wilayat Barqa militants attacked MSCD positions in Derna.4) 09 APR: ISIS militants attacked LNA forces outside of Derna.

ASSESSMENT:

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)Recent media publications underscore the enduring collaboration within the al Qaeda network. AQIM’s al Andalus Media released condolences for Sheikh Abu Firas al Suri, a senior al Qaeda leader killed by a U.S. airstrike in Syria on April 5. AQIM affiliate al Murabitoun released images of the March 18 AQIM attack on the In Salah gas plant in Krechba, central Algeria. Al Murabitoun typically operates in the Sahel, where it has collaborated with AQIM on its hotel attack campaign. This collaboration helps both AQIM and al Murabitoun maintain organizational capabilities in a very large attack zone.

Outlook: AQIM and al Murabitoun will launch joint media campaigns and attacks in the Sahel and possibly in southern Algeria.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Militant activity continued in central and western Tunisia, following renewed AQIM-linked Uqba Ibn Nafa’a activity there last week. Tunisian forces clashed with militants in Sakiet Sidi Youssef, Kef governorate, near the Algerian border in northwest Tunisia, and Tunisian residents captured a suspected terrorist in Sidi Bouzid, central Tunisia. Both AQIM and ISIS have recently increased activity in Uqba Ibn Nafa’a’s area of operations and are likely competing for the support of Tunisian militants there.

Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a militants will continue clashing with Tunisian security forces conducting clearing operations along the Tunisian-Algerian border.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Ansar al Din has likely increased its capabilities to conduct improvised explosive device (IED) attacks. The group carried out three IED attacks targeting UN forces on consecutive days near Taglit, Kidal region, northeastern Mali, a step-change in its capabilities. Malian security forces continued to put pressure on militants operating in central Mali. Malian security forces arrested eight suspected members of the Ansar al Din affiliate, the Macina Liberation Front (MLF), in Diabali, Segou region.

Outlook: Ansar al Din will conduct more frequent IED attacks on UN peacekeeping forces in northeastern Mali.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA

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1) 05 APR: Tunisian security forces dismantled a pro-ISIS cell in Zaghouan.2) 07 APR: Tunisian forces clashed with suspected terrorists in Sakiet Sidi Youssef, Kef governorate.3) 07 APR: Algerian forces dismantled a weapons manufacturing workshop in Setif.4) 11 APR: Suspected militants sent a death threat to a retired Tunisian police officer in Sidi Bouzid governorate.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 05 APR: French Special Forces killed suspected jihadists in Ozene, Kidal region.2) 06-08 APR: Ansar al Din detonated three IEDs targeting UN vehicles near Aguelhok, Kidal region. 3) 08 APR: Malian security forces arrested eight suspected MLF militants in Diabali, Segou region. 4) 10 APR: Gunmen ambushed a UN convoy near Bambara Maoude, Timbuktu region.

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ACRONYMSAfrican Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569