AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT April 19, 2016

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Scheduled UN-led Yemen peace talks did not occur in Kuwait because the al Houthi-Saleh delegation refused to participate until the ceasefire was fully implemented.

2. ISIS is reconstituting its explosives capabilities in eastern Libya and will use them against any actors that threaten its stronghold in Sirte.

3. ISIS is recruiting heavily and developing safe havens in Tunisia, where it plans to declare a formal wilayat.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalUN-led peace talks scheduled for April 18 did not take place because the al Houthi-Saleh delegation refused to participate until the ceasefire was implemented in full. Representatives from Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government arrived in Kuwait on April 17. Massive demonstrations in Aden for secession indicate the extent of future challenges for the Yemeni government.

Outlook: The al Houthi-Saleh delegation will probably refuse to participate in the Kuwait talks.

SecurityCoalition-backed forces and al Houthi-Saleh forces continued to fight along contested frontlines in central Yemen. Al Houthi-Saleh forces recovered from recent losses in Taiz and coalition-backed forces advanced in Ma’rib and al Jawf. Coalition airstrikes targeted a missile base west of Sana’a in response to the al Houthi-Saleh forces’ firing of a ballistic missile at coalition-backed forces in Ma’rib. Coalition airstrikes targeting al Houthi-Saleh positions have decreased, but have not stopped.

Outlook: Clashes along key frontlines will continue, especially in Taiz and Sana’a.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP retains control over al Mukalla, Hadramawt, and has continued to consolidate its positions around the city. It lost control of al Hawta, Lahij, to coalition-backed forces and may be preparing for an additional coalition-supported offensive against its positions in Abyan. ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan began a series of attacks targeting Yemeni military recruits and the Hadi government in Aden after a two-week lull in activity.

Outlook: ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan will sustain its attack tempo against Yemeni military and government targets in Aden.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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1) 15 APR: Coalition-backed forces cleared AQAP from al Hawta, Lahij.2) 12 APR: An ISIS SVEST targeted military recruits in Aden.3) 15 APR: ISIS launched a VBIED attack targeting the foreign ministry office in Aden.4) 17 APR: Aden security forces interdicted two VBIEDs, likely launched by ISIS.5) 14 APR: Coalition airstrikes targeted an al Houthi-Saleh missile base near Sana’a.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe Somali Prime Minister met with Russian officials in Moscow to discuss possible Russian aid for Somalia’s security forces. Russia’s foreign minister said that Russia is open to considering military cooperation with Somalia in the fight against terrorism. Russia may be challenging Turkish influence in Somalia by increasing its foreign assistance to the Somali Federal Government (SFG).

Outlook: Russian assistance to the SFG is unlikely to change Turkish-Somali relations.

SecuritySomali National Army (SNA) forces cleared al Shabaab from Bur Eyle, a militant stronghold near the Mogadishu-Baidoa roadway, likely seeking to control that ground line of communication (GLOC). Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) conducted clearing operations following a surge in al Shabaab attacks in Mogadishu, but al Shabaab has proved capable of withstanding such operations in the past.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely capture settlements along the Mogadishu-Baidoa roadway to retain its ability to disrupt SNA operations along the GLOC.

Al ShabaabIncreased al Shabaab activity in Beled Hawo indicates that al Shabaab maintains a presence in the town, which it can use as a staging area for attacks into northeastern Kenya. The release of a pro-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) training video from a cell operating in northern Somalia will present a challenge to al Shabaab. The video confirmed that former al Shabaab religious leader Abdul Qadir Mumin leads about two dozen militants seeking to join ISIS. The militants reaffirmed their allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely use its support zones in Beled Hawo to resume attacks in northeastern Kenya.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 12, 14 APR: Al Shabaab attacked government officials in Beled Hawo, Gedo region.2) 12 APR: U.S. airstrikes targeted an al Shabaab camp near Yontoy, Lower Jubba region. 3) 17-18 APR: Al Shabaab conducted multiple drive-by shootings in Mogadishu.4) 12 APR: Puntland security forces arrested suspected al Shabaab militants in Garowe, Nugaal region.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN-backed Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) is consolidating authority in Tripoli and gaining international support, bolstered by the West’s need for a legitimate counterterrorism partner in Libya. General Khalifa Haftar, who commands the largest fighting force in eastern Libya, remains a potential spoiler. Haftar’s backers in the House of Representatives (HoR) have blocked official approval of the GNA to safeguard his position. He gained additional support after the recent takeover of Benghazi, including the support of the militias that control parts of Libya’s critical oil infrastructure.

Outlook: International pressure will force the HoR to approve the GNA, but the GNA will not be able to take control of Libya’s armed factions without Haftar’s support.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army (LNA) is on the verge of clearing the remaining Salafi-jihadi strongholds in Benghazi, which may free up LNA forces to expand operations against ISIS and Ansar al Sharia-affiliated militants in Derna. Both ISIS and Ansar al Sharia continue to demonstrate explosives capabilities against the LNA in eastern Libya, despite recent territorial losses.

Outlook: Ansar al Sharia and ISIS will conduct asymmetrical attacks to undermine the LNA’s control of Benghazi.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS Wilayat Tarablus is consolidating control of its stronghold in Sirte. Recent ISIS attacks on Misratan positions in western Libya are likely meant to spoil or deter a Misratan offensive on Sirte. Similarly, a recent uptick in ISIS’s campaign of explosive attacks on the LNA in eastern Libya may indicate that ISIS is attempting to thwart the LNA’s plans to launch an attack on Sirte. ISIS is also cracking down on dissenting tribes within its area of control.

Outlook: ISIS will conduct spoiler attacks on Misratan outposts in western Libya, especially while Misratan forces remain drawn into Tripoli to support the GNA. ISIS will increase attacks on the LNA and its allies to discourage an offensive on Sirte.

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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1) 12 APR: ISIS militants attacked Petroleum Facilities guard forces near Ben Jawad.2) 14-18 APR: LNA forces launched an offensive against militant strongholds in Benghazi.3) 13 APR: ISIS militants detonated a SVBIED and raided a Misratan base near Ben Jawad.4) 17-18 APR: The Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna rebuffed ISIS attacks in Derna.

ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)AQIM is likely maintaining a support zone in El Oued, eastern Algeria. Algerian security forces have arrested dozens of suspected terrorists and killed at least 14 individuals with reported links to both AQIM and ISIS in El Oued since March, alongside the discovery of numerous weapons caches. AQIM eulogized the deceased militants, likely intending to draw on militants’ al Qaeda loyalties and drive local recruitment. Rumored defections from AQIM’s Sahara Emirate to ISIS give AQIM further reason to increase its media operations and rally support within its network, especially in critical terrain like Algeria.

Outlook: AQIM will increase its media output, including anti-ISIS rhetoric, in Algeria, Tunisia, and northern Mali.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Uqba Ibn Nafa’a remains on the defensive as ISIS continues to build its network inside Tunisia. Tunisian forces dismantled a pro-ISIS cell responsible for logistical support in Kasserine, western Tunisia, and arrested a deputy mayor in Skhira, eastern Tunisia, for alleged membership in a pro-ISIS cell. ISIS is attempting to both co-opt Uqba Ibn Nafa’a’s networks in western Algeria and infiltrate Tunisian population centers in order to lay the foundation for a new ISIS wilayat in Tunisia.

Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a will conduct defensive operations against security forces in western Tunisia. ISIS will continue to recruit heavily in eastern Tunisia and develop safe havens in western Tunisia.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) AQIM affiliate Ansar al Din carried out a coordinated wave of attacks against local and international security forces which triggered retaliatory arrests of locals, fueling public resentment toward French and UN forces. UN peacekeepers fired on demonstrators protesting the arbitrary arrests. These retaliatory actions help frame the fight for local jihadists and give credence to AQIM’s claims that the West is the true oppressor in Mali, ultimately bolstering recruitment for AQIM-linked groups.

Outlook: Ansar al Din will conduct coordinated attacks on French and UN peacekeeping forces in northeastern Mali.

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MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 12 APR: Tunisian security forces dismantled a cell with suspected links to Ansar al Sharia and ISIS in Bizerte.2) 14 APR: Tunisian security forces arrested 12 members of ISIS-linked Jund al Khalifa in Tunisia in Kasserine.3) 15 APR: Militants killed four Algerian soldiers in a clash in Constantine.4) 17 APR: Tunisian security forces arrested six members of a pro-ISIS cell, including the mayor of Skhira, in Sfax.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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11) 12 APR: Ansar al Din detonated an IED targeting a French convoy in Tessalit, Kidal region.2) 12 APR: Suspected Islamist militants launched mortar shells at a UN camp in Ansongo, Gao region. 3) 13 APR: Macina Liberation Front militants attacked a Malian army checkpoint in Boni, Mopti region. 4) 18 APR: UN forces fired at protesters at the Kidal airport.

ACRONYMS

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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569

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