AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT November 24, 2015

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. An ISIS suicide bomber attacked a bus transporting presidential guards, killing at least 13 people in the center of Tunis, according to Tunisian authorities.

2. Al Qaeda-linked Islamist militants laid siege to an American-owned hotel in the center of Mali’s capital, Bamako, killing at least 19 people and demonstrating an expansion of capabilities into the south.

3. Iran’s decision to join the Syrian peace talks does not indicate its willingness to negotiate directly with the U.S. on nonnuclear issues.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda’s affiliates continue to push back against the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham's (ISIS) call for individuals and groups to join its Caliphate. The Paris attacks were a major inflection point demonstrating ISIS’s strength in the West and may further galvanize support for ISIS. Al Qaeda affiliates describe ISIS’s claims of having established a Caliphate as illegitimate and continue to focus on strengthening their positions inside of Yemen, Somalia, the Maghreb, Sahel, Syria, and Afghanistan-Pakistan region. ISIS’s rise has not weakened the core al Qaeda network, which also benefits from increased mobilization of Sunni populations and growing radicalization in the Muslim-majority world.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will likely continue to pursue a long-term strategy in which it builds strength among its affiliates and benefits from the West’s focus on defeating the ISIS threat.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesPakistan experienced an increase in militant activity over the weekend. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) Mehsud faction killed at least 3 Pakistani security officials in an IED blast in South Waziristan on November 23, 2015. Separately, militants killed four Pakistani Rangers in a drive-by shooting in Karachi on November 21, 2015. The militants who perpetrated the attacks are yet to be identified and there has not been a claim of responsibility.

The Pakistani military continued its ground and air operations in the Shawal Valley area of North Waziristan. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military’s offensive in North Waziristan, is in its final phase.

Outlook: Pakistan may increase security in cities following increased threats of attacks. Separately, the Pakistani military will continue Operation Zarb-e-Azb to eliminate militancy in the tribal areas of North Waziristan.

AL QAEDA

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PoliticalThe UN-led peace process is continuing, but the parties will not go to Geneva for talks this month. Al Houthi representatives and General People’s Congress delegates, representing the interests of former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, participated in a UN-sponsored discussion in Muscat, Oman and reportedly agreed to an agenda for the Geneva talks.

Outlook: Fighting will continue as combatants attempt to consolidate territorial gains, despite the renewed al Houthi participation in the peace process.

SecurityThe primary frontlines in Taiz and Ma’rib remain fixed, despite a coalition-backed push to take control of territory near the Taiz-Lahij border. Popular resistance forces took control of al Waziyah district in southwestern Taiz, but landmines planted by al Houthi-Saleh forces stalled a coalition-backed advance toward al Rahidah, Taiz governorate’s second largest city. Fighting continued in Taiz city, but neither side made considerable progress. Coalition-backed Yemeni army units clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in Ma’rib and reinforcements deployed to the area, but the clashes produced no notable territorial shifts.

Outlook: The Saudi-led coalition will attempt to consolidate territorial control along the frontline running from the Bab al Mandeb strait, through Taiz governorate, and northward through Ma’rib city.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenISIS Wilayat Hadramawt launched an improvised explosive device (IED) and a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on a Yemeni army checkpoint in eastern Yemen. AQAP’s insurgent arm, Ansar al Sharia, conducted more than 20 IED and direct fire attacks on al Houthi positions in al Bayda, Ibb, and Taiz governorates in the past two weeks.

Outlook: ISIS will continue to strengthen its operational and recruitment capabilities in Hadramawt governorate. AQAP will continue to develop relations with anti-al Houthi tribal militias in al Bayda and Taiz.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

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1) 18 NOV: Bahraini troops and supplies arrived in Aden city.2) 20 NOV: Popular resistance fighters pushed al Houthi forces toward Mocha and took over al Waziyah district, Taiz governorate.3) 20 NOV: ISIS Wilayat Hadramawt attacked a Yemeni army checkpoint using an IED and a SVBEID in Shibam district, Hadramawt governorate.4) 22 NOV: Coalition-backed forces advanced toward al Rahidah city, Taiz governorate.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalSomali officials found no evidence of Kenya’s border wall encroaching on Somali territory. Middle Shabelle and Hiraan clans held reconciliations talks, likely in preparation to unite the two regions under one state. Ethiopian officials met with Galmudug State’s president to discuss regional stability and requested the inclusion of Ahlu Sunna wa al Jama’a (ASWJ), a paramilitary organization that challenges Galmudug State’s legitimacy, in the federally-sanctioned Galmudug State.

Outlook: Galmudug State officials will likely increase the diplomatic pressure on ASWJ to join the administration.

SecurityA reported U.S. airstrike killed al Shabaab’s top commander for the Lower Shabelle region. Tensions continued to rise between Kenya and Ethiopia following a skirmish between Ethiopian soldiers and Kenyan police within Kenya’s borders. Additionally, a clash between Galmudug State and Puntland security forces in Galkayo is threatening the stability of Somalia’s central Mudug region. Al Shabaab attacked a military encampment in Puntland in northern Somalia, where al Shabaab attacks are infrequent.

Outlook: Puntland’s stability will likely deteriorate if tensions with Galmudug State continue to rise and al Shabaab launches more frequent operations in the area.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab attacked pro-ISIS militants in the Middle Jubba region’s Gududley town and killed a formerly high ranking al Shabaab member who had close ties to Ahmad Umar, al Shabaab’s emir. This high-level target indicates that the pro-ISIS movement within al Shabaab is not relegated solely to the lower level militants in the group. Additionally, al Shabaab conducted a number of attacks within Kenya’s borders this week, indicating an increase in the group’s operational capabilities outside of Somalia.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely continue to target pro-ISIS members of the group in an effort to prevent the movement from gaining greater traction. It will continue to seek enhanced operational and recruitment capabilities in Kenya.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 20 NOV: Ethiopian forces attacked a Kenyan police vehicle near Sololo, Marsabit County. 2) 22 NOV: Al Shabaab ambushed pro-ISIS faction members in Gududley, Middle Jubba region.3) 22 NOV: Reported U.S. airstrike killed a high-ranking al Shabaab member in Beled Amin, Lower Shabelle region.4) 22 NOV: Al Shabaab attacked a Puntland military base in Boosaaso, Bari region.

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PoliticalThe new Director for the UN Support Mission in Libya, Martin Kobler, began his term with a renewed push to implement the proposed government of national accord. Kobler indicated that he would not edit the draft resolution any further and called for both sides to unify in the face of growing extremism in the country. Neither the House of Representatives (HoR) nor the General National Congress (GNC) have voted on the proposed reconciliation agreement, despite internal pressure to do so.

Outlook: The HoR and GNC blocs will continue to push for negotiations, despite delays from the leadership.

SecurityFractures within the Libya Dawn coalition are growing. Formerly Libya Dawn-allied Misratan brigades clashed a newly-formed militias coalition based in Tripoli, where core elements of Libya Dawn are based. Public figures in Tripoli, including the Grand Mufti, voiced support for the Tripoli militia coalition and called for the expulsion of Misratan forces from Tripoli.

Outlook: Misrata will likely sever its ties to Libya Dawn and become an independent military actor in western Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and ISIS in LibyaA convoy of Syrian ISIS fighters arrived in Sirte, Libya, which marks the first time that ISIS fighters have arrived from Syria since the start of the Russian and French bombing campaigns. The continued movement of ISIS militants between Syria and Libya indicates that ISIS is maintaining secure transport corridors between the two countries.

The Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD) pulled its forces out of Fata’ih, Derna and resumed its mortar campaign on ISIS positions in Sahel Sharqi, Derna.

Outlook: ISIS will maintain lines of communication and transportation between Libya and Syria, and Libya will continue to serve as a support zone for ISIS activities in Syria and Iraq.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 17 NOV: A Syrian ISIS convoy arrived in Sirte.2) 17 NOV: ISIS Wilayat Tarablus withdrew from checkpoints ahead of a potential attack by French forces near Sirte.3) 18 NOV: A new Tripoli militia coalition abducted Misratan civilians and attacked Misratan militias near Tripoli.4) 18 NOV: ISIS Wilayat Barqa executed two Libyan National Army soldiers in Ajdabiya.

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AQIM AQIM’s Saharan Brigade purportedly cooperated with AQIM-affiliate al Murabitoun to conduct a high-profile attack against an American-owned hotel in Bamako, Mali. The hotel was to host a UN delegation to discuss the peace talks. AQIM distributed propaganda leaflets in northern Mali warning civilians not to engage with UN peacekeepers following the attack. AQIM also sent a threatening letter to a separatist rebel group’s military base demanding that the group cease collaborating with the government.  Outlook: Friday’s attack in the heart of Mali’s capital will embolden AQIM and encourage the group to further reassert its presence into northern Mali in an effort to disrupt the peace talks.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)An ISIS suicide bomber attacked a bus transporting presidential guards exploded in the center of Tunis, killing at least 13. This attack comes two weeks after security forces foiled a terrorist plot in Sousse. Tunisia has declared a state of emergency. Also, Jund al Khilafah, an ISIS-linked group, claimed responsibility for beheading a shepherd at Jebel Mghila on November 13, marking the group’s first attack since June 16.

Outlook: All militant groups will attempt to evade military operations during the state of emergency.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) AQIM-affiliate Ansar al Din reportedly provided support to its southern brigade, the Macina Liberation Front (MLF), in Friday’s terrorist attack in Bamako, Mali. An MLF spokesman claimed the attack was in retaliation for the French counterterrorism campaign, Operation Barkhane, that has been underway in Mali since August 2014. Operation Barkhane forces recently apprehended dozens of MLF members, and the MLF denounces the cooperation between French and Malian armed forces.  Outlook: Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, and affiliates will build off of Friday’s attack and continue to target UN, French, and Malian security forces, as well as those who cooperate with these forces, in order to destabilize Mali and undermine the implementation of the peace agreement.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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51) 17-23 NOV: Algerian forces performed clearing operations in Tizi Ouzou, Algeria.2) 17 NOV: Security forces arrested a man with pro-jihad leaflets in Kairouan, Tunisia.3) 17, 21 NOV: Gunmen robbed houses in Ain Madour, Sidi Bouzid, and Sbeitla, Kasserine, Tunisia. 4) 20 NOV: Security forces arrested suspected militants in Siliana, Tunisia.5) 24 NOV: A military bus exploded in Tunis, Tunisia.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA1) 23 NOV: An IED killed two in Hammabangou district, Timbuktu region, Mali.2) 20 NOV: Islamist militants stormed a hotel, killing 20, in Bamako, Mali. 3) 20 NOV: French, Malian, and Nigerien forces conducted a clearing operation in Kidal region, Mali. 4) 17 NOV: Pro-regime Tuareg militants established a military base in Gourma Rharous, Timbuktu region, Mali.

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ASSESSMENT:

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Regional Developments and DiplomacySupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei identified U.S. foreign policy as a common threat to Iran and Russia during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Tehran on November 23. Khamenei called for greater Moscow-Tehran cooperation to counter U.S.-led plots to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al Assad and stated that the U.S. has “no right” to insist on Assad’s departure. The Supreme Leader also reiterated his policy of compartmentalized negotiations with Washington, stressing: “Except for the nuclear issue… we do not and will not have bilateral negotiations with the Americans on Syria or any other topic.” The Supreme Leader’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, meanwhile, touted Iran’s success in thwarting U.S.-led “plots” in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria by mobilizing Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi forces in support of Assad.

Outlook: Iran’s decision to join the Vienna II talks on Syria does not indicate its willingness to negotiate directly with the U.S. on nonnuclear issues.

Military and SecurityCommander of the IRGC Nabi Akram Unit Brigadier General Second Class Bahman Reyhani announced the arrest of “ISIS teams” in Kermanshah province in western Iran on November 17. The Ministry of Intelligence and Security announced on November 21 that it “destroyed” two terrorist “teams,” one in West Azerbaijan province in northwestern Iran and the other in Sistan va Baluchistan province in southeastern Iran. On November 22, IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari credited security measures and the “cooperation of the people” for foiling ISIS-led plots in Iran.

Outlook: The escalation of counterterrorism arrests in border areas across Iran is likely an effort to assuage domestic concerns following the Paris terrorist attacks.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

NOV 17: Commander of the IRGC Nabi Akram Unit Brigadier General Second Class Bahman Reyhani announced the arrest of “ISIS teams” in Kermanshah province.

NOV 17: Defense Minister IRGC Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan conferred with his Syrian counterpart Fahd Jassem al Freij about recent developments in Syria and underscored Iran’s readiness to provide assistance to the Syrian government and nation.

NOV 18: The IAEA released its quarterly report stating that Iran has disconnected “almost a quarter of its uranium-enriching centrifuges” as part of its duties under the JCPOA.

NOV 18: Iranian media reported the deaths of three Iranians in Syria. Two of them were members of IRGC designated artillery batteries.

NOV 19: The Supreme Leader’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati touted Iran’s success in thwarting U.S.-led plots in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria by mobilizing Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi forces in support of Syrian President Bashar al Assad.

NOV 19: Coordination Deputy for the Representative of the Supreme Leader IRGC Brigadier General Mohammad Hossein Sepehr attributed Iran’s diplomatic strength and leverage in international negotiations to the IRGC’s “advisory missions” abroad.

NOV 19: Basij Organization Commander IRGC Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi claimed that the expansion of foreign influence is a strategy by the West to subvert the Iranian state.

NOV 20: IRGC Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri reaffirmed joint Iranian-Russian counterterrorism operations in Syria.NOV 20: Judiciary Spokesman Hojjat ol Eslam Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei called for intelligence and judicial officials to be

wary of foreign influence.NOV 21: The Ministry of Intelligence and Security announced that it has “destroyed” two terrorist “teams,” one in West

Azerbaijan province and the other in Sistan va Baluchistan province.NOV 22: IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari credited security measures and the “cooperation of the

people” for foiling ISIS’s plots in Iran.NOV 23: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for stronger Iranian-Russian relations during a meeting with President

Vladimir Putin in Tehran.NOV 23: Tehran’s Ambassador to Moscow Mehdi Sanaei announced that Russia has started “procedures” to deliver the S-300

surface-to-air missile defense systems to Iran.

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analyst emily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569