Solar Disruption

Solar disruptionThe number 1 power source

Bruce Douglas Chief Operating Officer, SolarPower EuropeChairman, Global Solar Council

November 2016

2

What is SolarPower Europe?

• The new EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association)

• A member led association representing organisations active along the whole value chain

• Shapes the regulatory environment and enhances business opportunities

Over 200 members including the following leading companies:

Founding Association Members

3

4

1. Cheapest power source in many regions2. Highly versatile3. Fast deployment4. Significant local socio-economic benefits5. Hedge against future electricity price

increase: cost of MW/h known in advance and fixed for 20 years

6. Clean (locally and globally)

SOLAR DISRUPTION

5

1. Tipping point?

6

TIPPING POINT - INVESTMENTS

7

TIPPING POINT – GROWTH OF RENEWABLES

POWER GENERATION CAPACITIES ADDED IN THE EU 28 IN 2015

Source: EWEA, ESTELA, SOLARPOWER EUROPE

TIPPING POINT - INSTALLATIONS

9US EIA

TIPPING POINT – ENERGY CONSUMPTION

EMERGING MARKETS

EVOLUTION OF EUROPEAN ANNUAL PV GRID CONNECTIONS VS. GLOBAL 2010 - 2015

© SolarPower Europe 2016

11Global Market Outlook 2016-2020

SUNNY 5-YEAR FORECAST FOR MOST MARKETS

12Carbon Tracker

CHEAPER THAN GAS & COAL

13

2. Cost of energy

14

VIRTUOUS PRICE CIRCLE

15BNEF

COST REDUCTION OF PV MODULES


SOLAR INCREASINGLY COST-COMPETITIVE – EVEN WITH ONSHORE WIND

REDUCTION IN LCOE – COMPARED TO WIND (1)

Location $/MWhUS 38Dubai 29Mexico 35Abu Dhabi 24Chile 29Argentina 59

17

REDUCTION IN LCOE – COMPARED TO WIND (2)

18

Large-scale solar is now cost-competitive with other technologies…

19

COST REDUCTIONS - 2025

IRENA – Global weighted average cost – PV installed

COST REDUCTIONS - 2050

Source: AGORA Energiwende

A combination of price competition, long-term contracts, good resources and financial de-risking measures creates deployment opportunities in

newer markets and at lower costs.

21

3. #1 Power Source


GROWTH to 2020 – Annual global market

UNCERTAINTY IN POLICY SUPPORT MEANS THE FORECAST FOR ANNUAL INSTALLATIONS IN 2020 RANGES FROM 62 TO 120 GW !


IF MARKET DESIGN IS SET CORRECTLY, SOLAR AS LOWESTCOST RES COULD REACH 15% SHARE IN EU BY 2030

GROWTH to 2030 – EU electricity contribution

24

ENERGY STORAGE: GROWTH to 2030

GROWTH to 2040 - High global penetration levels

GLOBAL INSTALLATIONS COULD REACH 5000 GW BY 2040 WHICH WOULD PROVIDE 15% OF GLOBAL ELECTRICITY

26IEA

GROWTH to 2050 – Cumulative global scenario

#1 POWER SOURCE

Business

Solar Disruption