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MARKETING MANAGEMENT12th edition
4 Conducting
Marketing Research and Forecasting
Demand
Kotler Keller 4-2
Chapter Questions
• What constitutes good marketing research?
• What are good metrics for measuring marketing productivity?
• How can marketers assess their return on investment of marketing expenditures?
• How can companies more accurately measure and forecast demand?
4-3
Build-A-Bear Workshop makes the most of “interactive entertainment retailing”
4-4
Marketing Research Defined
Systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data
and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing a company.
4-5
Karmaloop.com
4-6
Types of Marketing Research Firms
Syndicated-service Custom Specialty-
line
4-7
The Marketing Research Process
Define the problem
Develop research plan
Collect information
Analyze information
Present findings
Makedecision
4-8
Step 1
• Define the problem• Specify decision alternatives• State research objectives
4-9
Step 2
Data Sources
ContactMethods
ResearchInstruments
SamplingPlan
Research Approach
4-10
Research Approaches
Observation
Focus Group
Survey
Behavioral Data
Experimentation
4-11
Focus Group in Session
4-12
Research Instruments
QuestionnairesQualitative MeasuresMechanical Devices
4-13
• Avoid negatives• Avoid hypotheticals• Avoid words that could
be misheard• Use response bands• Use mutually exclusive
categories• Allow for “other” in fixed
response questions
Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts
• Ensure questions are free of bias
• Make questions simple• Make questions specific• Avoid jargon• Avoid sophisticated
words• Avoid ambiguous words
4-14
Question Types - Dichotomous
In arranging this trip, did you contact American Airlines?
Yes No
4-15
Question Types – Multiple Choice
With whom are you traveling on this trip?
No one
Spouse
Spouse and children
Children only
Business associates/friends/relatives
An organized tour group4-16
Question Types – Likert Scale
Indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: Small airlines generally give better service than large ones.
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
Strongly agree
4-17
Question Types – Semantic Differential
American Airlines
Large ………………………………...…………….Small
Experienced………………….………….Inexperienced
Modern………………………..………….Old-fashioned
4-18
Question Types – Importance Scale
Airline food service is _____ to me.
Extremely important
Very important
Somewhat important
Not very important
Not at all important
4-19
Question Types – Rating Scale
American Airlines’ food service is _____.
Excellent
Very good
Good
Fair
Poor
4-20
Question Types –Intention to Buy Scale
How likely are you to purchase tickets on American Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available?
Definitely buy
Probably buy
Not sure
Probably not buy
Definitely not buy
4-21
Question Types –Completely Unstructured
What is your opinion of American Airlines?
4-22
Question Types –Word Association
What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following?
Airline ________________________
American _____________________
Travel ________________________
4-23
Question Types –Sentence Completion
When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is: ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________.
4-24
Question Types –Story Completion
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings.” Now complete the story. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
4-25
Question Types –Picture (Empty Balloons)
4-26
Question Types –Thematic Apperception Test
Make up a story that reflects what you think is happening in this picture.
4-27
Qualitative Measures
Shadowing
Behavior mapping
Consumer journey
Camera journals
Extreme user interviews
Storytelling
Unfocused groups
4-28
Mechanical Devices
Galvanometers
Tachistoscope
Eye cameras
Audiometers
GPS
4-29
Sampling Plan
• Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?• Sample size: How many people should be
surveyed?• Sampling procedure: How should the
respondents be chosen?
4-30
Types of Samples
Probability• Simple random• Stratified random• Cluster
Nonprobability• Convenience• Judgment• Quota
4-31
Contact Methods
Mail Questionnaire
TelephoneInterview
PersonalInterview
OnlineInterview
4-32
Characteristics of Good Marketing Research
Scientific methodResearch creativityMultiple methodsInterdependenceValue and cost of informationHealthy skepticismEthical marketing
4-33
Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics
External• Awareness• Market share• Relative price• Number of complaints• Customer satisfaction• Distribution• Total number of
customers• Loyalty
Internal• Awareness of goals• Commitment to goals• Active support• Resource adequacy• Staffing levels• Desire to learn• Willingness to change• Freedom to fail• Autonomy
4-34
Table 4.5 Sample Customer-Performance Scorecard Measures
• % of new customers to average #• % of lost customers to average #• % of win-back customers to average #• % of customers in various levels of satisfaction• % of customers who would repurchase• % of target market members with brand recall• % of customers who say brand is most preferred
4-35
Tools to Measure Marketing Plan Performance
Sales Analysis
Financial Analysis
Expense-to-SalesAnalysis
Market ShareAnalysis
4-36
Sales Analysis
Micro-Sales
Analysis
Sales-VarianceAnalysis
4-37
Market Share Analysis
• Overall market share• Served market share• Relative market share
4-38
Figure 4.2 The Control-Chart Model
4-39
Figure 4.3 Financial Model of Return on Net Worth
4-40
Marketing-Profitability Analysis
Step 1: Identifying Functional Expenses
Step 2: Assigning Functional Expenses to Marketing Entities
Step 3: Preparing a Profit-and-Loss Statementfor each Marketing Entity
4-41
Table 4.6 Simplified Profit-and-Loss Statement
4-42
Table 4.7 Mapping Natural Expenses into Functional Expenses
4-43
Table 4.8 Bases for Allocating Functional Expenses to Channels
4-44
Table 4.9 Profit-and-Loss Statements for Channels
4-45
Distinguishing Types of Costs
Direct Nontraceablecommon
Traceablecommon
4-46
Gladware uses marketing-mix modeling to test advertising effectiveness
4-47
The Measures of Market Demand
PotentialMarket
PenetratedMarket
TargetMarket
AvailableMarket
4-48
Figure 4.4 Ninety Types of Demand Measurement
4-49
Figure 4.5 Market Demand Functions
4-50
Figure 4.5 Market Demand Functions
4-51
Product Penetration Percentage
4-52
Estimating Current Demand
• Total market potential• Area market potential
– Market buildup method– Multiple-factor index method
• Brand development index
4-53
Table 4.10 Calculating Brand Development Index
4-54
Estimating Future Demand
• Survey of Buyers’ Intentions• Composite of Sales Force Opinions• Expert Opinion• Past-Sales Analysis• Market-Test Method
4-55
Purchase Probability Scale
Do you intend to buy an automobile within the next 6 months?
0.00 No
0.20 Slight possibility
0.40 Fair possibility
0.60 Good possibility
0.80 High possibility
1.00 Certain4-56
Marketing Debate
What is the best type of marketing research?
Take a position:1. Marketing research should be quantitative.2. Marketing research should be qualitative.
4-57
Marketing Discussion
When was the last time youparticipated in a survey? How helpful
do you think was the informationyou provided? Could the research
have been done differently?