Public Opinion

Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Factors That Influence Factors That Influence Political AttitudesPolitical Attitudes

Political AttitudesPolitical Attitudes

Many factors—including Many factors—including family, family, gender, religion, education, gender, religion, education, social class, race & ethnicity, social class, race & ethnicity, andand regionregion—all contribute to —all contribute to American political attitudes and American political attitudes and behaviorbehavior

Political AttitudesPolitical Attitudes

No single featureNo single feature of an of an individual’s life explains all of individual’s life explains all of that individual’s attitudesthat individual’s attitudes

FamilyFamily Most important source of political Most important source of political

socializationsocialization Plays a major role in shaping political Plays a major role in shaping political

attitudes (especially party identification)attitudes (especially party identification)

FamilyFamily Polls show the majority of young Polls show the majority of young

people people identify with their parents’ identify with their parents’ political partypolitical party

Process begins early in life (by Process begins early in life (by age age 10 or 1110 or 11))

FamilyFamily Even though individuals generally Even though individuals generally

become become more independentmore independent as as they grow older, the correlation they grow older, the correlation between adult party id & the between adult party id & the parents’ party is still very highparents’ party is still very high

FamilyFamily A more recent trend is a tendency for A more recent trend is a tendency for

this correlation to be lower than it has this correlation to be lower than it has in the pastin the past

Trend may be related to another trend: Trend may be related to another trend: growing number of voters who call growing number of voters who call themselves themselves “independents”“independents” rather rather than Democrats or Republicansthan Democrats or Republicans

FamilyFamily

More politically active your More politically active your family, the more likely you are family, the more likely you are to hold the same beliefsto hold the same beliefs

Examples—Bush & Kennedy Examples—Bush & Kennedy familiesfamilies

FamilyFamily Most members of the extended Most members of the extended

Kennedy family are Democrats, and Kennedy family are Democrats, and most Bush family members are most Bush family members are RepublicansRepublicans

Relationship is Relationship is weaker on specific weaker on specific issuesissues (gun control, school prayer, etc) (gun control, school prayer, etc)

Strong for overall political views & idsStrong for overall political views & ids

GenderGender A person’s gender influences political A person’s gender influences political

viewsviews More women consider sexual More women consider sexual

harassment in the workplace to be a harassment in the workplace to be a serious problem than do menserious problem than do men

More men than women tend to More men than women tend to support military actions & spending support military actions & spending in foreign affairsin foreign affairs

GenderGender Party Party

identification is identification is also affected by also affected by gender gender

This relationship This relationship has shifted has shifted throughout the throughout the yearsyears

GenderGender In the In the 1920s1920s when when womenwomen first began first began

to vote, they were more likely to to vote, they were more likely to support the support the Republican PartyRepublican Party than than were menwere men

Some experts explain correlation by Some experts explain correlation by pointing out that Republicans tended to pointing out that Republicans tended to be more the party of be more the party of “hearth and “hearth and home”home”

GenderGender Tendency for Tendency for

women to vote women to vote for Republicans for Republicans continued continued through the through the 1930s1930s

GenderGender Although most women supported Although most women supported

the Democrat Franklin D. the Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR), over his Roosevelt (FDR), over his Republican opponents, the Republican opponents, the percentage of women supporters percentage of women supporters was lower than the percentage of was lower than the percentage of men who supported FDRmen who supported FDR

GenderGender Trend held until the Trend held until the

late 1960s late 1960s (correlation (correlation reversed)reversed)

Since that time Since that time women have been women have been more likely than more likely than men to vote for men to vote for DemocratsDemocrats

GenderGender Change explained by the advent of Change explained by the advent of

the the modern women’s rights modern women’s rights movementmovement & the & the Democrats’ Democrats’ tendency to support points of tendency to support points of view women supportview women support

GenderGender Equal Equal

opportunity for opportunity for womenwomen

Abortion right Abortion right Welfare Welfare

programsprograms

GenderGender On the other hand, On the other hand,

some experts argue some experts argue that that Republicans Republicans are more are more concerned about concerned about defense issuesdefense issues, , and thus attract and thus attract more men to their more men to their partyparty

GenderGender More recent More recent

gender-related gender-related issue has to do issue has to do with with male v. male v. female support female support for women for women political political candidatescandidates

GenderGender

Although common sense may Although common sense may tell us that women would be tell us that women would be more likely to support women more likely to support women candidates, the candidates, the research does research does not show a clear correlationnot show a clear correlation

GenderGender One problem is that relatively few One problem is that relatively few

women run for political officewomen run for political office Although their numbers have Although their numbers have

increased in recent elections, more increased in recent elections, more women candidates run as women candidates run as Democrats than as RepublicansDemocrats than as Republicans

GenderGender It is difficult to know if the It is difficult to know if the

candidates’ gender alone affects candidates’ gender alone affects voting patterns of women and menvoting patterns of women and men

GenderGender In the In the

presidential presidential election of election of 2004, the 2004, the gender gap gender gap appeared to appeared to close somewhatclose somewhat

GenderGender Pollster John Zogby has pointed Pollster John Zogby has pointed

out that the gender gap in the 2004 out that the gender gap in the 2004 pres election was not nearly so pres election was not nearly so significant as the significant as the gap between gap between married & unmarried votersmarried & unmarried voters

GenderGender He found that on most issues single He found that on most issues single

v. married voters were often 25-30 v. married voters were often 25-30 points differentpoints different

Single more likely to vote for Single more likely to vote for Democratic candidate (Kerry)Democratic candidate (Kerry)

Married voters more likely to Married voters more likely to support Republicans (Bush)support Republicans (Bush)

ReligionReligion An individual’s religion is a factor An individual’s religion is a factor

determining his or her political determining his or her political attitudesattitudes

Although the relationships are not Although the relationships are not as strong as they once were, as strong as they once were, patterns still holdpatterns still hold

ReligionReligion Protestants are more conservative Protestants are more conservative

on economic matters (minimum on economic matters (minimum wage, taxes) than Catholics & wage, taxes) than Catholics & JewsJews

Jews tend to be more liberal on Jews tend to be more liberal on both economic and social issues both economic and social issues (civil liberties & rights)(civil liberties & rights)

ReligionReligion Catholics tend Catholics tend

to be more to be more liberal on liberal on economic economic issues than on issues than on social issuessocial issues

ReligionReligion Some research on Some research on

fundamentalist fundamentalist ChristiansChristians indicates they: indicates they:

Tend to support more Tend to support more conservative candidates conservative candidates for public officefor public office

More likely to contribute More likely to contribute to the Republican Partyto the Republican Party

ReligionReligion Conservative tendency is Conservative tendency is

stronger for attitudes about stronger for attitudes about social issuessocial issues (abortion, stem cell (abortion, stem cell research, etc.) than for foreign research, etc.) than for foreign affairs & economic issuesaffairs & economic issues

EducationEducation

A person’s level of education A person’s level of education also affects political attitudesalso affects political attitudes

Evidence provides conflicting Evidence provides conflicting resultsresults

EducationEducation In general, the In general, the higher the higher the

individual’s educational levelindividual’s educational level, the , the more likely he/she is to hold more likely he/she is to hold conservativeconservative political points of political points of viewview

EducationEducation However—many However—many

studies show that studies show that college education college education often influences often influences individuals to have individuals to have more liberal social more liberal social & economic & economic attitudes than they attitudes than they had before collegehad before college

EducationEducation Studies show that: Studies show that:

the longer the longer students stay in students stay in college & the more college & the more prestigious the prestigious the institution they institution they attend, the more attend, the more liberal they liberal they becomebecome

EducationEducation Reasons for this correlation are unclearReasons for this correlation are unclear Some believe liberal attitudes of Some believe liberal attitudes of

professors may influence studentsprofessors may influence students Others believe that the differences are Others believe that the differences are

based on the characteristics of people based on the characteristics of people who attend college v. those that don’twho attend college v. those that don’t

Race & EthnicityRace & Ethnicity Much research has focused on the Much research has focused on the

relationship between an individual’s relationship between an individual’s race & ethnicity and her/his political race & ethnicity and her/his political attitudesattitudes

Race & EthnicityRace & Ethnicity

Oldest & largest numbers of Oldest & largest numbers of studies focus on black studies focus on black Americans Americans

Black AmericansBlack Americans

Identify with the Identify with the Democratic PartyDemocratic Party

Most consistently Most consistently liberal group liberal group within that partywithin that party


Recent presidential elections, Recent presidential elections, blacks have voted in overwhelming blacks have voted in overwhelming numbers (close to 90%) for the numbers (close to 90%) for the Democratic candidateDemocratic candidate

Hispanic AmericansHispanic Americans

Much less research has been Much less research has been conducted with Hispanic Americansconducted with Hispanic Americans

Preliminary results indicate they Preliminary results indicate they too tend to be more liberal than the too tend to be more liberal than the majority majority


Tendency to affiliate with the Tendency to affiliate with the Democratic PartyDemocratic Party

Correlation appears to be weaker Correlation appears to be weaker than that for black Americans than that for black Americans (Mexican, Puerto Ricans, etc.)(Mexican, Puerto Ricans, etc.)

Asian AmericansAsian Americans

Limited amount of research on Limited amount of research on Asian Americans & voting patternsAsian Americans & voting patterns

More conservative than blacks More conservative than blacks or Hispanicsor Hispanics


Attitudes of the various nationalities Attitudes of the various nationalities of Asians fluctuate widelyof Asians fluctuate widely

Korean Americans are more liberal Korean Americans are more liberal than Japanese Americansthan Japanese Americans


Overall, more Asian Americans Overall, more Asian Americans voted in the 2000 presidential voted in the 2000 presidential election for Al Gore (D) than for election for Al Gore (D) than for George W. Bush (R)George W. Bush (R)

Influence of Asian ethnicity on Influence of Asian ethnicity on political attitudes is still not clearpolitical attitudes is still not clear

Which regions in the Which regions in the U.S. are the most U.S. are the most

liberal? Least liberal?liberal? Least liberal?

Geographic RegionGeographic Region

SouthSouth is the is the least liberalleast liberal of the of the four regionsfour regions

Midwest somewhat more liberalMidwest somewhat more liberal East and West most liberal East and West most liberal


People on either coast tend to be People on either coast tend to be more liberal than those in the more liberal than those in the middle of the countrymiddle of the country


Generalization (problems)Generalization (problems) Many Californians & New Many Californians & New

Englanders are conservativeEnglanders are conservative


Part of the reason for the trend is Part of the reason for the trend is an an urban/ruralurban/rural differentiation differentiation

Coastal cities populated by Coastal cities populated by minorities, recent immigrants & minorities, recent immigrants & members of labor unionsmembers of labor unions


Cities in the “rust belt” of the Cities in the “rust belt” of the Great Lakes region also tend to Great Lakes region also tend to vote Democraticvote Democratic

Strong labor constituencies Strong labor constituencies (union membership is strong)(union membership is strong)

Southern RegionSouthern Region

Party affiliations of Party affiliations of SoutheasternersSoutheasterners have been have been changingchanging over the past 50 years over the past 50 years

Since the 1950s, many southerners Since the 1950s, many southerners have have brokenbroken their traditional their traditional ties ties withwith the the Democratic PartyDemocratic Party


From the time of Reconstruction – From the time of Reconstruction – 1950s, the “Solid South” always 1950s, the “Solid South” always voted Democraticvoted Democratic

Almost all representatives, Almost all representatives, senators, governors, and local senators, governors, and local officials belonged to the officials belonged to the Democratic PartyDemocratic Party


Since the 1950s, more & more Since the 1950s, more & more political leaders have affiliated with political leaders have affiliated with the Republicansthe Republicans

Today, in most southern states, Today, in most southern states, both parties have competitive both parties have competitive electionselections

Why did Southerners change Why did Southerners change their political affiliation in the their political affiliation in the

1950s?1950s?


Many southerners Many southerners disagreeddisagreed with with the Democratic Party’s support for the Democratic Party’s support for the the black civil rights movementblack civil rights movement starting in the 1950sstarting in the 1950s

Result – many white southerners Result – many white southerners changed their party affiliationchanged their party affiliation


White southerners tend to be:White southerners tend to be: Less liberalLess liberal than others on than others on social social

issuesissues (aid to minorities, legalizing (aid to minorities, legalizing marijuana, same sex unions, etc.)marijuana, same sex unions, etc.)

Similar to those of other Similar to those of other regions on economic issuesregions on economic issues (Social Security, government services, (Social Security, government services, etc.)etc.)


Although there is some evidence Although there is some evidence that southerners are more that southerners are more conservative than they were 50 conservative than they were 50 years ago, political views of white years ago, political views of white southerners are southerners are less distinctless distinct from from those in other regions than they those in other regions than they used to beused to be

OccupationOccupation

Today occupation has a weaker Today occupation has a weaker association with political association with political opinions than it did in the 1950sopinions than it did in the 1950s

OccupationOccupation The traditional gap—manual The traditional gap—manual

workers were more liberal than workers were more liberal than business or professional persons in business or professional persons in their attitudes toward the economy their attitudes toward the economy & social welfare has narrowed& social welfare has narrowed

Social ClassSocial Class Years ago, the relationship Years ago, the relationship

between social class & political between social class & political attitudes was clearattitudes was clear

Higher the social class=more Higher the social class=more conservative & more likely to conservative & more likely to belong to the Republican Partybelong to the Republican Party

Social ClassSocial Class Even though broad affiliations Even though broad affiliations

between blue-collar workers & the between blue-collar workers & the Democratic Party & businessmen Democratic Party & businessmen and the Republican Party still have and the Republican Party still have some credibility, those some credibility, those relationships are much weaker relationships are much weaker than they once werethan they once were

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