Testing Public Opinion

7/24/2019 Testing Public Opinion

1/8

American Association for Public Opinion Research

Testing Public OpinionAuthor(s): George GallupSource: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 1, Special Supplement: Public Opinion in aDemocracy (Jan., 1938), pp. 8-14

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2/8

TESTING

PUBLIC OPINION

GEORGEGALLUP, irector,he Americannstitute

ofPublicOpinion

Lord Bryce's nalysis f therole

of public

opinion

n

a democracy

was

particularly oteworthy.

e

knew

that

n no country

s

public

opinion

o powerful

s in the

United

States,

nd he

saw

clearly

wherein

ruleby public

pinion

alls hort

n

this

ountry.

he greatest

eakness

of government

y public

opinion,

Bryce aid, s thedifficultyfascer-

taining

t.

Bryce

aw clearly

ow

nadequate

are the

meansof

knowing

he

will

of the

majority

f the

people

n this

couintry.

uch is the

din

of

voices

here,

Bryce

wrote

n his book

The

American

ommonwealth,

hat

t

is

hard to say whichcry prevails-

which

omes rom he hroats

f

the

many,

which

rom

he hroats

f

the

few.

"The

organs

of

opinion,"

he

said,

"seem

almost

s

numerous

s

thepeople

hemselves,

nd they

re

all engaged

in representing

heir

own

view s that

f the

people.'"

Even

n

election,

ryce

ointed

ut,

couldat bestdo no more hantest

thedivision

f

opinion

etween

wo

or three

great

parties,

eaving

un-

answered

he

will of the

people

n

respect

o

the

ssues.

And f

the

lec-

tion

happened

o depend

n

the

per-

sonal

merits f

the

candidates,

hen

interpretation

as even

more

diffi-

cult.

Bryce elieved

t tobe one

of the

chief

roblems

fall free

nations

o

"devisemeanswherebyhenational

will should

be quickly

known." o

importantid he regard

his

prob-

lem thathe said the

next nd

final

stage

n our American

orm f

gov-

ernment ould

be reached

if

the

willof themajority

f

citizenswere

to become scertainable

t all

times,

withoutthe

need

of

its

passing

through body frepresentatives-

possibly

ithout he

need

of

voting

machineryt all."

A

while ago President oosevelt

said that hemajorityf

Americans

are

in

favor f

his Courtproposal.

Was he right r was he

wrong?

How shall

we interpret

he great

vote registeredn the

I936

election

for Mr.

Roosevelt?

Was it a man-

date to liberalize he

Court? Was

it

a

mandate

o

continue

he pro-

gram

of

spending?Was it

a man-

date to

revive he

NRA?

To dis-

tribute ealth?

Or was

it

merely

tribute

o

a

great

personality?

Was the

greatmajorityeceived

by Hoover n

I928

a mandate o

retain rohibition? as t mandate

to continue he

policies

f

the

eco-

nomic oyalistsf that olden

ra

of

Republicanism?r was it

merely

vote o keepoutoftheWhite

House

a man

whose

religion

nd whose

background ere not

approved y

manyvoters?

A

placardwhich ppearedn one

of

the cenes f

Of

Thee

Sing car-

8


3/8

ried

wordsmore early

rue han he

authors

f

this

musical

omedy rob-

ablysuspected. he

sign read, "A

VoteforWintergreen

s a Vote for

Wintergreen."

James ryce aid

that henext nd

final tage n our

democracy ould

be

reachedfthewill

ofthemajority

of

citizens ere o

become scertain-

able at

all times.

With the

development

f the

science of

measuringpublic opinion,

it

can

be statedwithbut few

quali-

fications,hatthisstage n our de-

mocracy

s

rapidly

eing eached.

t

is now

possible o ascertain, ith

high

degree

f

accuracy,

he views

of

the

people

n all national

ssues.

As

evidence,

et me cite the

work

of the American

nstitutef Public

Opinion.

The Institutes a fact-findingr-

ganizationwhich functions

n

the

realm

f

opinion

n

much he same

way

as the Associated

ress,

the

United

Press,

nd

the

nternational

News Service unction

n

the

realm

of events.

ike

these

press ervices,

the

work f the nstitutes entirely

underwritten

y

a

group

f

eading

newspapers-newspapershich ep-

resent

very hadeof political elief.

Duringthe ast two

years he

n-

stitutef Public

Opinionhas con-

ducted

a

continuous

day-by-day,

week-by-week

ensus

of

the

public

mind.

The view of

hundreds f

thousands f

voters f

the

country

on morethan

300

differentssues

have been canvassed

n thisperiod.

Findings

n

issues of

currentm-

portance ave beenreported. acts

have beengathered,

or hepurpose

of establishingrends,

n still

ther

issueswhichmaybe

of

national

n-

terest

n

the future.

ryce elieved

that the will of the

public

should

not nly e known,but

hat t hould

be quickly

nown.With ts

present

organization,he Institute

f

Pub-

lic Opinion s equipped

o make

a

complete

ational

oll

in

a period

of

ten days;

and if the need were

urgent,

his

time

could be

reduced

to three ays.

How accurate ave been the

n-

stitute's indings

s

measuredby

election

eturns: ow often

ave

the

Institute's olls on

issues foretold

coming vents?

A

brief

ccount f

the

major

ssues overed

uring

hese

two

years

will

help

nswer his

ues-

tion.

One of thefirst ational ssues n

which

he nstitute

eported

ad

to

do with old-agepensions

nd

the

Townsendmovement.

ur findings

showed that

whereas

he

country

was overwhelmingly

n

favor f old-

age pensions, politicallynsignifi-

cant

numberwere

n favor

f the

Townsend rogram. ur report n

this

ssuemade

n

January936

met

with

large

measure

f

skepticism,

but

subsequent

vents, articularly

the

fall

election

eturns,roved

he

accuracy f thisforecast.

Early

n

January

936, the nsti-

tute

howed

hat he

AAA

was

op-

posed by 59 voters n every oo.

Even

the rural reas of the Middle

West

were

lmost venly ivided n

9


4/8

themerits

f thisNew Deal

act de-

spitewhat

eemed o

be contraryvi-

dence

upplied y the corn-hogef-

erendum mong

farmers.ince the

countryid nothave n opportunity

to

vote

on this ssue, t

is

impossible

to

know the accuracy f the nsti-

tute'sresults.

Analysis

f

the No-

vemberelection

returns rovides,

however, ne interestingit of evi-

dence

ndicatinghe ack of

enthu-

siasm for

this

measure:

he Roose-

velt otewas smallern 936

as com-

paredwith

932

in approximately

three-fourths

f

all

rural

ounties f

the

country.

Whereas

he

Republi-

canscarried

nly

2I

counties

n

the

Middle

West

in

I932,

they

arried

nearly wice

hatnumber 235)

in

I936.

The

likelihood

f

a

splitwithin

theranksof the Democratic arty

along

conservative-liberalines was

clearly

ndicated

n

thevote

n

many

issues

(including

relief, pending,

government

egulation

f

agricul-

ture

and

industry,

nd

other

New

Deal

policies) eportedy the nsti-

tute. t was more

irectly

oretold

y

a

poll

reported year

go

in

which

voters ad a chance oclassifyhem-

selves s Conservativesr Liberals.

The

significant

act evealed

y

the

poll

was that

nearly

0 per

cent

of

all voterswho

cast their allots or

Roosevelt

regarded

themselves s

conservatives. he

South, whose

Senators and

Representativese.

sertedheNew Deal onmany ssues

in

the

ast session f

Congress,plit

fifty-fifty

etween

onservativesnd

Liberals.

n the

fall

election

he

Roosevelt

ote n

the outh

ncreased

in 479

counties,

ut

declined

n

nearly wice

as

many-8ii.

Duringthe closingdaysof the

Presidential

ampaign

he

Republi-

cans made

a

strong

id

for

votes

n

the

"pay-roll

ax,"

the

administra-

tion's

social

security

measure.

it-

tle

did

they

ecognize

hatmore

han

two

out

of

every

hree

oters

n

the

country avored

this

far-reaching

New

Deal

act.

In the very

cities

where he Republicans eretrying

hardesto

use this

ssue

o

win

votes,

the

social

security

ct

was

over-

whelmingly

pproved,

n some

n-

stances y

as

many

s

85

voters

n

every

ioo.

Is

there

ny

wonder

that

Roosevelt

ained

votesdailyduring

this

ttack

n a

measure hich

ven

therank ndfile ftheRepublicans

approved?

At a time

whenFather

Coughlin

and

Dr.

Townsend

were

talking

n

terms

f a third

party

backed

by

25,000,000

voters,

he

Institute

f

Public

Opinion

estimated,

n the

bases

of its

polls,

a following

f

Ioo,ooo.

Two daysbefore he elec-

tion

the Institutepredicted

hat

Lemkewould

poll

only

.2

per

cent

ofthe

otal ote.He actually

eceived

I.9

per

cent.

The

Instituteorecasthe

lection

of

President

oosevelt, iving

him

a substantiallectoral

ote

majority.

The finalpoll gaveRooseveltorty

stateswith 485

electoral

otes;

it

failed to

give

him six

additional

IO


5/8

states, which he carried,

with 46

electoral votes.

In addition to these forecasts he

Institutehas made forecasts

n nine

other state elections, all of which

have been correct.

This evidence of accuracy

s not

presentedhere in a spirit of

boast-

fulness,but merely o indicate

how

far the science of measuringpublic

opinion has developed.

I

have said

on many occasions that do not be-

lieve that any great social

good

comesfrombeing able to predict n

election orty-eight

ours n advance.

But

I

do see

the value

of

elections

in

determining

he

accuracy

f meth-

ods used

in

measuringpublic

opin-

ion;

for if

the methods

are

not

ac-

curate

n

forecasting

n

election, hey

will

probablyprove equally

inaccu-

rate n measuringpublic opinionon

national issues.

The

two great

issues

of

this

year

have

been labor disorders

and

the

President's proposal to enlarge the

Supreme

Court. What have

the In-

stitute'spolls

showed on

these

two

national questions?

The

drive

to

organize

labor in

many industries,nd the use of the

new weapon-the sit-down

trike-

provide

an

interesting

xample of

how

public opinion changes.

At the

beginning

of

the year a great

ma-

jority

f

people throughout

he

coun-

try

were

sympathetic

o

labor unions.

Six months

ater

labor had

gained

many victories, ut at theexpenseof

much

public sympathy, articularly

in the middle

classes.

Continuouslyduring this period

the Institute f Public Opinion cov-

ered the public's attitude n various

phases of the labor question-the

split between he C.I.O. and A.F.

of

L., the General Motors strike, he

public's attitudetoward laws regu-

lating and curbingunions.

More than anything lse the use

of the sit-down trike lienated the

sympathies of the middle classes.

When the General Motors trikebe-

gan, for example, only a slight ma-

jority f persons 53 per cent) sym-

pathized with the employers.

As the

strike progressed nd as the public

had

time

to forman

opinion

of

sit-

down

strikes,the percentage

who

took

the

side

of

the

employers

n-

creased steadily.At the end

of

the

strike

62

per

cent of

all

people

took

theside of the companywhereas38

per cent

took the side

of

the

strikers.

Two-thirds

of the

voters

of

the

country

bIieved that sit-down

strikes hould

be made

illegal,

and

the

same

proportion

elieve that au-

thorities hould

use force

n remov-

ing

sit-down strikers.

At

the close

of the

period

of intensive

rganiza-

tionof labor and of strikes, he In-

stitute

ound

the

public

overwhelm-

ingly

of

the

opinion

that

labor

unions

should

be

regulated

by

the

government, hould

be

required

to

incorporate.

Significantly,

ne

of

the

groups

found

most hostile to labor was the

group composed of farmers-with

whom abor

hopes ventually o

form

a

political party.

II


6/8

The

Supreme

Court

issue

is

a

perfect

llustration

f the

confusion

which

ollows

n

attempt

o

read

oo

much

nto

election

eturns.

t is

at

the ametime perfectxample f

why

t

is essential,

n a

democracy

such

s

ours,

o be

able

to know

he

will

of the

people

on any

given

s-

sue,

t

anygiven

ime.

A

while ago James

arley

aid:

"The people

f this

ountry

re

for

the Roosevelt

rogram

whatever

t

is.

They

are

for

he

Court

program

because he President roposedt."

The

President

imself

ore ecently

has

said

that the

majority

f

the

people

favor

his

Court proposal.

What are

the

views

of

the

people?

As early

s

November

935,

the

Institute

earned

n one

of its

na-

tional

polls

that 63

in

every

OO

voters ithviews n this ssuewere

opposed

o

curbing

he

power

f

the

Supreme

ourt.The

same

poll

was

repeated

n

December 936.

A

ma-

jority

was

again

registered

gainst

curbing

r

imiting

he

power

f

the

Court o

declare

cts fCongress

n-

constitutional.

n

our

report

f

De-

cember 3,

we said:

"In the

next

session f Congress here s almost

certain

o

be

agitation

or

consti-

tutional

mendment

o curtail

he

power

of the Supreme

Court.

Al-

ready

t

s reported

hat number

f

Senators re

organizing

bloc to

fight

or n

amendment.

f such

a

measure s passed

. . its

chances

of beingratifiedy the voters f

the

nation

would be

slim.

A

ma-

jority

f voters

re

opposed

o

any

limiting

f the Supreme

Court's

power, o

any

tampering

ith ts

right o

say

thou

haltnot'

to Con-

gress

and

to the President."

Up to this oint hePresident ad

not taken a

definite tand

on the

Court ssue.

On February the

Pres-

ident

threw he

full

weight

f his

greatpopularity

ehind proposal

to

liberalize he

Courtby

enlarging

its membershipo

fifteen. ith

his

personal

ponsorship

f

a

plan to

liberalize he

Court,

whatposition

wouldvoters f the nation ake-

particularly

hosewhovoted

or

him

in

the

fall election?

The President

made

his proposal

on Friday

morning.

Within few

hours

he

nstitute's

achinery

as

set

n motion

o

take national

oll

on

this

ssue.

Results

f the

first

oll

showed

53

votersn every

oo

op-

posed

to

the President's

lan.

In

subsequent

olls

his

igure

hanged

to

52,

and in

April,

ust

before he

WagnerAct decision,

o

5 . When

thisdecision,

avorable

o labor nd

to the

New

Deal,

was

handed own,

the trend

hanged

nd the

percent-

age

of

persons

pposed

o thePresi-

dent'splan increased o 53. With

Justice

an Devanter's esignation

the

percentage

fvoters pposed

ad

increased o

58

in

every oo,

or

to

a

point

lmost he same as

it

was

in December

before

he President

had

sponsored

is own

plan

for

ib-

eralizing

he Court.

The Presidentpparentlytillbe-

lieves

that

the

majority

f voters

are

favorable

o his

program.

n

fact

l2


7/8

he has

intimatedhat

he

will renew

his

fight

o

enlarge

he Court.

Do

the voters f the country ant

him

to

renew his

ight?

he

Institute

s

presentlyngaged in polling the

country

n this

question.

he

first

returnsook as

if

the

country y

a

thumping ajority

s

ready

o

"call

the

whole

thing

ff." he Institute

has discovered

n

interesting

act n

the

course of its

Supreme

Court

polls; t has discoveredhatover a

third

f

the

people

who

voted

for

thePresidentastfall reagainst is

plan. And

yetvirtuallyll

of these

same

persons

re

enthusiastically

or

Roosevelt

oday.

Standard

olitical

rocedure

alls

for

making he Supreme ourt ne

of

the ssues n the

forthcomingon-

gressional

ampaign.

n

fact, ormer

President ooverhasmade his ug-

gestion,

nd

the

President

imself,

judging

from

is last

talk, ppears

readyo

carry

he

ssue

nto he am-

paign.

What will happen? f

President

Roosevelt

etainshis present reat

popularity,

he Democrats will

emerge

gainfrom he

lections ith

a substantial ajority,f somewhat

smaller han 1936.

If

the Court proposal

has been

made

an

issue

n

the

campaign,

he

Democrats,nd in factmostpeople,

will

regardt

as

a

mandate o

enlarge

the

Court, espite

he

fact hatpeo-

ple mayholdthe ameviews

t that

time s they otoday. hePresident

will

surely egard t as

a

mandate

to

enlarge

he

Court.

Here

certainly

s revealed

ne

of

the greatest

eaknesses

f our

de-

mocracy. ere

sevidence

f

he asic

truth f

Lord Bryce's

ssertion

hat

thenext tate n thedevelopmentf

the

American

orm

f

government

would

be reached

f

the

will of the

people

were o

become

scertainable

at

all times.

The

measurement

f

public pin-

ion

need

not

be

confined

o

ques-

tions

f

government

nd

politics.

t

is

equally

useful

n

the

field

f

so-

cial problems. believe hatwhen

full

se s

made

of

procedures

hich

have

been developed

t will

be

pos-

sible

o

speedup

the

whole

program

of

social welfare.

et

me cite

one

example.

For

many

years

he

word

"syph-

ilis"

was banned

frommanypubli-

cations, ecause heeditors hought

that

decent

eople

did

not

want

to

talk bout

t.Months

go

we earned,

in

the

course f

taking

olls

on

this

issue,

hat he public

not only

was

ready o

discuss

reelyhe

problem

ofvenereal

iseases ut

hat he

pub-

lic

in

its

thinking

ad traveled

ar

beyondegislators

n the

matter

f

public ontrolfthese iseases.

Let

me cite

another

xample

n

a differentield.

We know hat er-

tain

prejudices

xist mong

Protes-

tants nd

Catholics

nd

Jews.

ow

can we deal effectively

ith these

prejudices

nless

we

know a great

deal more about

them? Why

do

theyexist? Where do they xist?

What is the trend-are

relations

amongthese

groups

mproving

r

13


8/8

are

they rowing

worse? 'he

same

machinery hich

has

been devel-

oped

to earn he

views

f thepublic

on political

nd social

ssues

an be

usedwith qual successn this ield,

in my

opinion.

In the

course

f polling he

coun-

try

n

more han hree

undred

s-

sues,

t has been

possible

o arrive

at

conclusionsased

on facts egard-

ing the intelligence

f the

mass

of

voters.

The Institute's

epresenta-

tives re daily

talking

o all classes

of societyneverytate ftheunion

-to persons

n relief,

hare-crop-

pers,

ricklayers,

armers, erchants,

housewives,eachers.

hat

vidence

is

there hat hese

eople

re capable

of self-government?

Sir Robert

eel

described

ublic

opinion

s

"a

great compound

f

folly,weakness,prejudice,wrong

feeling, ight

eeling,

bstinacy,

nd

newspaper

aragraphs."

We

could

quarrel

month

ver

uch

defini-

tion.The

important

oint,

s

I

see

it,

is

not

what constitutesublic

opinion,

utwhether

ublic

pinion,

and

by

this mean

majority

pin-

ion,

adds

up

to

something

hat

s

sound.

Democracy epends

n the

collec-

tive

intelligence

f the

people;

it

does

not

require

hat

very

oter

e

intelligent.

ith a

corps

of inter-

viewers

aily sking

uestions

f

all

kinds,

he nstitute

s in a good

posi-

tion

o knowhow

ll-informed,

ow

prejudiced, ow stupid are some

voters.We have

found ersons

ho

do notknow

he

difference

etween

the

Supreme

Court

and the

local

police

court.

And

we have

found

still

others

who

believe

hat

steril-

izing

the

unfit

means

washing

hem

with heright indofsoap

But

this

is

unimportant,

or

a

democracy

epends

for

good

gov-

ernment

n

the

collective

udgment

of

the

majority.

would

not

argue

that

he views

of

the

common

eo-

ple

always

provide

he

best

answer

to

any

national

uestion.

ut

on

the

basis

of

the evidence

which

he

n-

stitute as amassedduring he ast

two years

have

come

to

believe

absolutely

n

the

statement

hich

Theodore

Roosevelt

once

made:

"The

majority

f plain

people

of

the

United

Stateswill,

day

in

and

day

out,

make

fewer

mistakes

n

governing

themselves

han

any

smaller lassor groupof menwill

make

n

trying

o

govern

hem."

The science

f

measuring

ublic

opinion

s

only

n its

nfancy.

any

things

ave till

o be earned;

roce-

dures

must be

developed.

We

are

still

n

the

experimental

tage.

But

of

one

thing

we

can

be absolutely

certain,

nd

that s,

withmany

of

our eading sychologistsnd social

scientists

nterested

n the

problem

of measurement,

ith

growing

x-

perience

f such

organizations

s

our own,

t will

not

be

long

before

we

can say

withutmost

onfidence

thatthe final

tage

n

the

develop-

ment f our

democracy,

s

described

byBryce,as beenreached-thathe

will of the

majority

f

citizens

an

be ascertained

t all

times.

14

Documents

Testing Public Opinion